“Phew! Got LeBron out of here just in time!”
The race to be the Best of the Rest is still on! For all their losing ways of late, the Atlanta Hawks have a chance to regain their clutch on the third-seed in the Eastern Conference, with another road win in Miami against the heat (6:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast, SUN Sports). With another road loss, what would be their third in their last four away games, they could drop as far as sixth.
The Hawks can’t say their Southeast Division foes haven’t given them ample opportunity to pull away. Charlotte floundered but is surviving through the absences of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Al Jefferson, while the Wizards have struggled to keep Bradley Beal on the floor.
Orlando has stayed relatively intact but have missed Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo for spells recently. Only the Magicians have failed to regain their footing in the division, and even with amid an 8-game losing skid, they’re still just 5.5 games behind Atlanta (27-21).
Erik Spoelstra’s club went through a 2-8 stretch in mid-January, with wins coming only at Phoenix and at Denver, grinning and bearing their way through the schedule despite injuries hampering Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, Luol Deng, and Hassan Whiteside (strained oblique, missed last four games and out again today).
In addition to dealing with injuries, home games like today’s have become a rarity for Miami. After a home-friendly start to the year, this will be just the second game at AmericanAirlines Arena since January 6. The heat return home with their spirits lifted after three straight road wins in Chicago, Brooklyn, and Milwaukee. But even after today’s game, the heat hit the road again for three games (at Houston, Dallas and Charlotte), before returning to host the Clippers and Spurs.
Part of Miami’s turnaround of late has to do with boosting the pace and making smart offensive plays. Looking as healthy as he has in awhile, Wade has led the charge in his past four games (25.3 PPG, 6.0 APG, 3.0 TOs/game, 51.3 FG%). The heat are not great 3-point shooters (32.9 team 3FG%, 27th in NBA), and Wade isn’t wasting much time with those (8 3FG attempts since Miami won in Atlanta on Dec. 14, no 3FGs made since Dec. 16).
What he is doing is penetrating lanes, getting to the free throw line (10-for-13 FTs @MIL last Friday), dishing the ball to teammates in advantageous positions (15 total assists in last two games). He’s also finding his comfort zone on long-distance two-pointers, particularly on the left side of the rim. But it’s not all on offense where the 34-year-old star is making his mark.
“He can’t do it the whole game,” Chris Bosh remarked to the Palm Beach Post, “but late in the game he can guard their best guy. Period. And that guy’s probably not gonna get open. If he really wants to, he ‘s gonna lock him up.” The heat have only won by four or five points in their past three games, and Wade has been prominent in sealing the deal.
Wade stripped Giannis Antetokounmpo at the rim on Friday with under 30 seconds to go, keeping the big Buck from tying the game. If Miami is turning to Wade to help out in the paint, particularly since Whiteside and Chris Andersen (knee soreness) cannot go, Atlanta’s perimeter shooters have to be primed and ready to catch-and-shoot quickly. The Hawks were not aided on Friday by either Kyle Korver or Mike Scott (combined 2-for-13 3FGs).
Ultimately, if you’re going to get a jump on Miami with offense, you’d better do it early. Even with the recent absence of Whiteside, the heat has the league’s best fourth-quarter defensive rating (97.7 opponent points per 100 possessions) and hold teams to just 41.7 FG% in the closing frame. Thanks to this, according to Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post, their fourth-quarter +1.1 is their only net positive point differential in quarters of games.
Despite a +1.7 fourth-quarter differential that ranks 4th in the league, the past two games (17-21 vs. LAC, 17-29 vs. IND) haven’t helped Atlanta’s standing. After playing from behind for much of the contest, the Hawks clawed their way to a 90-88 lead in Indy on Friday night, only to pull the rip cord and watch the Pacers go on a blistering 23-2 run to close the game out.
Despite playing through nagging injuries from time to time, the Hawks have held together physically, if not psychologically, through much of the season. All-Star forward Paul Millsap sprained an ankle midway through the loss in Indiana, but is expected to be good-to-go at tip-off time today.
Still, all of the signs of pending collapse are there for Atlanta, after a disappointing January (6-8) that concludes this evening. Having played the East’s second-easiest strength of schedule so far (48% winning percentage of played opponents, as per PlayoffStatus.com, they now face the East’s most daunting schedule going forward (54% winning percentage of remaining opponents).
Particularly without Millsap, the Hawks could find no means of stopping Indiana’s offense. Al Horford was out-Horforded by rookie first-time starter Myles Turner in Indiana, and needs to put up a stronger two-way effort against his fellow floor-spreading big Bosh (22.0 PPG, 52.8 FG% in last six games) today. Both Millsap and Horford need to keep starting center Amar’e Stoudemire occupied in the paint.
With the aid of Deng and rookie reserve Justise Winslow, Miami clamped down on the Hawks’ starting guards (Jeff Teague and Korver 4-for-24 FGs) in last month’s 100-88 win. Kent Bazemore was left open and carried the team offensively (28 points, 11-for-18 FGs, 3-for-7 3FGs), but he cannot get it done himself.
Thabo Sefolosha’s offense (4-for-5 FTs, 13 points) awoke after a month-long slumber, but Atlanta’s reserves universally struggled on the floor defensively on Friday. The bench has to keep Gerald Green (20 points on 9-for-14 FGs in Miami’s 100-88 win in Atlanta on Dec. 14) from getting the green-light shots he wants, particularly in transition. Tyler Johnson is questionable with a strained shoulder, adding to the need for the Hawks’ bench to build a sizable advantage.
Dragic returned against Milwaukee (12 points, 8 assists) after missing eight games with a calf injury, and it’s hoped he’ll continue elevating the pace of play (29th in NBA) for Miami. Jeff Teague and Dennis Schröder need to be the one-two punch for Atlanta that pushes the tempo and puts Dragic (and Wade) to work on defense, early and often.
The Hawks will be visited by Miami on February 19, and by that time the trading deadline will have expired. Despite the recent upturn in play for the heat, another slide will likely compel team president Pat Riley to make critical trade offers that get the team below the punitive luxury tax apron. Today is the last opportunity Atlanta will have to kick those executive phone calls into high drive. Another losing skid for either team would drop them from the Best of the Rest and leave them competing among the Least o the East.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
