Should auld acquaintance be forgot… and NEVER brought to mind?
2015. Phew! What a year, eh?
Couched around the greatest postseason push in Atlanta Hawks history, and a record four All-Star Game participants, was the second-most successful calendar year of regular season games ever experienced by the franchise.
From the rafters, Dikembe Mutombo wags a disallowing finger at those daring notions that Calendar Year 2015 was the greatest Hawks regular-season campaign ever, or that the most successful January-to-December stretch came from players rocking a Pac-Man jersey. Deke, Lenny, Smitty, and Mookie’s Hawks went 59-25 (70.24%) in 1997. In The Year of Many People’s Lord 2015, the Hawks had a chance to match that win total by winning last night’s and tonight’s road games.
Even failing that, no outcome tonight will stop the gaggle of Hawks including Bud, Bawse, Jeff, and Sap from the 4th-best percentage record in any calendar year of its speckled NBA history (going all the way back to Tri-Cities). Currently at 67.86%, that’s a mark bested only by the 1997 edition, and the teams rolled out by the Czar with Nique, Doc, and Kevin in 1986 (69.62%) and 1987 (68.51%). To separate from the ’87 players and stand alone in second-place among calendar-year win totals, the 57-27 Hawks of 2015 must take out the Houston Rockets (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast) tonight at the Toyota Center.
Speaking of Toyota… oh, what a feeling. If you’ve felt a tinge of a letdown after the wild success that marked the first half of 2015, try getting sympathy from a Rockets fan. H-Town was in the NBA Final Four last season, too, and even won a game once they got there. They have the Players’ Choice MVP, plus a “real” center who is still supposed to be, even at age 30, among the upper tier at his position. Furthermore, they went out in the summer to acquire a speedy point guard that shores up the position, at least offensively, and conceivably made it where their high-usage superstar shooting guard no longer has to handle the rock so darn much.
None of that was supposed to add up to their current record of 16-16. Central to the issues in Space City was putrid defensive effort. A team that finished among the top-ten in defensive rating in 2014-15 (100.5, just ahead of Atlanta’s 100.7, 6th in NBA) has dropped down to 23rd so far this year (104.4, just ahead of Philadelphia).
Rocket opponents are shooting 63.4 FG% in the restricted area (2nd-worst in NBA) and are making hay at the corner-three zones (2.9 corner 3FGs per game, 3rd-most in NBA). A team starting Dwight Howard, Trevor Ariza, and Patrick Beverley, along with the emerging Clint Capela, shouldn’t have so much trouble getting stops on the regular. Of course, decent team defense takes a five-man effort. And the fifth starter has been a problem.
Houston’s superstar, James Harden, built up his MVP credentials in 2014-15 with gritty defensive effort. But the Bearded One seems to have reverted back to the downright hairy defense of yesteryear, the lackadaisical stuff that once made him a YouTube sensation for all the wrong reasons.
Harden leads the way with a career-high 28.4 PPG (2nd in NBA), but his usage rate (even with Ty Lawson in tow) has inexplicably risen to a career-high 32.8%. His shooting percentage of 41.7 FG% (career-low 33.5 3FG%) the worst since his thunderous rookie season, and his turnover percentage of 15.3% is a career-high. Meanwhile, his defensive box plus/minus (-0.7) and defensive rating (106.1; net rating of -3.4 in home games) indicators suggest he’s about as ineffective a defender as he has ever been.
It turns out it might actually take a Rocket scientist to figure out not only how to get Harden re-focused, but to find the proper balance of the Lawson/Beverley platoon. Beverley was in-and-out to start the season with an ankle injury. Lawson started the first 11 games before getting deposed, and has been a Porter Ranch-scale disaster (34.8 FG%, 31.0 3FG%) as a shooter and a defender.
While one team tonight has an All-Star center who is only accused of pacing himself through the season, the other team has a well-paid center who openly admits to doing exactly that. Howard has been slowed by issues with his knee and back. As he looks forward to VetMinning his way to retirement at age 40, Howard, now in his twelth NBA season, doesn’t mind one bit when the coach rests him for whole quarters, or whole games. Dwight has become, essentially, a offensive board-crasher and help-defender who hopes nobody hacks him and sends him to the line (50.3 FT%, his worst in last three seasons).
Howard’s partner-in-crime Josh Smith left over the summer for Los Angeles, and filling the hole at the power forward spot has been like trying to spackel a drive-thru window. Donatas Motiejunas just returned, and Terrence Jones (career-low 45.5 FG%) has been underwhelming in his return to action, and Montrezl Harrell, well, just no. So Capela has been granted trial-by-fire at the 4-spot.
McHale’s navy tried to plug all the leaks, but after just 11 games (4-7), the commander was tossed overboard. J.B. Bickerstaff now steers the wheel, and while the team has crawled back to .500 under his watch, it’s hard to say whether they would have gone 12-9 under Kevin McHale anyway. “Over and over again,” Bickerstaff bickered Mark Jackson-style, after the Rockets fizzled late in New Orleans on Saturday, “we’ve disrespected the game”. Despite a pleasant Christmas Day defensive effort in a home win over the Spurs, J.B. wants to stop the “ugly Rockets” from rearing their heads.
Jettisoning Lawson in favor of Jason “JET” Terry and Beverley has generally worked out, as has putting more trust in Thabo Sefolosha’s Swiss bro Capela (14.7 O-Reb%, 4th in NBA). But Bickerstaff has a better chance of righting the ship if he can find steadier contributions of the bench. Houston’s reserves manage just 27.1 defensive rebounds per-48 (28th in NBA) and their turnover ratio (16.6 per 100 possessions) ranks 27th.
The Hawks (20-13) couldn’t hit the broad side of an Indiana barn last night (41.9 team FG%; Kyle Korver 0-for-8 3FGs), and was as sloppy with the ball as we’ve seen all season long (19.0 TO%, worst since losing in Brooklyn on Nov. 17). And yet they still found themselves, on the road, within a bucket of the lead with just under a minute to play.
The defensive work to limit Paul George’s effectiveness, and coax him into questionable shots without fouling, allowed Atlanta to stay within reach until the sloppy end. They’ll need a similar effort tonight versus Harden, but they also need to keep a shoot-first guard like Terry from thinking he can be Monta Ellis.
Whichever Hawks guard doesn’t draw Beverley should find minimal defensive resistance (unless Bickerstaff leans on Corey Brewer, or the barely-used K.J. McDaniels) and should have ample opportunity to make amends tonight. That guard is likely to be Korver, and the struggling shooter must work the corner spots with reckless abandon tonight, in order to shake off his slump.
Capela and Howard will crash the glass, and create extra-chances. But Atlanta also did well yesterday making outlet passes off the Pacers’ offensive rebounds tough last night and should continue to do so again whenever they fail to snare the defensive rebound. Getting to the paint and making the extra pass without drawing charges and getting rejected will help the Hawks go into 2016 on a high note.
Have a Happy New Year! Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
