(No Meme Photoshopping Required.)
Spoiler Days? After pulling yet another trick up their sleeve this weekend against the Cavs, there’s not much for the Atlanta Hawks to spoil tonight, aside from lotto positioning with a loss to the visiting Charlotte Hornets (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast, 92.9 FM in ATL). Although re-accommodating their division rivals this evening won’t be necessary, the Hawks have a greater opportunity to be a true spoilsport tomorrow, when they arrive in Indiana for the regular season finale.
Who da real MVP, when it comes to the Hawks? It’s got to be all of you diehard fans, who have endured as topsy-turvy a season as supporters of any perennial playoff outfit should come to expect, and will be duly honored throughout 92.9 The Game’s Takeover Night.
As just one instance of what you’ve put up with: Kent Bazemore steals a lousy Cavs inbound and goes coast-to-coast on Sunday afternoon, with a chance to expand the Hawks’ long-sought lead to three points in overtime… who among us did not steel our loins in anticipation of a blown open layup? And Baze almost gave us just that! Just as Paul Millsap did from close range with just minutes to go in regulation, and the Hawks down by seven. Sap did go 11-for-11 on free throws, though, he and Tim Hardaway, Jr. making just enough that Kyrie Irving’s closing heave wouldn’t matter.
Whenever it gets well past time to rationally expect competency out of this bunch, the Hawks’ competitive spirit pops up, right out from the abyss. There were so many second-half and overtime moments on Sunday where Hawks fans could rightfully point and say, “that’s the game, nobody on the Cavs is incompetent enough to screw this up,” and suddenly, here comes LeBron James, asking us all to hold his beer. A bench corps that could barely score against the Nets leads the charge versus the Cavs out of a 26-point hole. Baze, Sap, even Mike Muscala making buckets, plural, in the clutch... was that real life?
We’ll get to see how real this life is soon enough, as the NBA Playoffs tip off in some deity-forsaken Eastern locale this weekend. No passports will be required, as the Hawks are mathematically incapable of facing the Raptors in the opening round. But Boston, Cleveland or, most likely, Washington will find it hard to know what to expect out of a Hawks squad that hardly seems to know what to expect of itself.
As per HoopsHype, who have the top two payrolls among Southeast Division teams? Pick up a Kewpie doll on your way out of the fair if you correctly guessed the Orlando Magic and these Hornets. Like the Magic, the Hornets (36-45) are officially in full whiteboard mode, and team owner Michael Jordan will continue to leave the dry-erasing duties to GM Rich Cho, whose contract option was picked up yesterday.
The Hornets’ brain trust swung-and-missed on several fronts this season, managing to keep Charlotte from building on last season’s first-round exit, despite a career-best offensive effort by All-Star guard Kemba Walker.
They tried to offset the departures of backcourt mates Jeremy Lin and Courtney Lee in free agency with Marco Belinelli, Brian Roberts, and Ramon Sessions. Armed with a new multi-year contract in the offseason, Marvin Williams (42.4 FG%, 35.1 3FG%) made his 2015-16 career year (45.2 FG%, 40.2 3FG%) look exactly like a career year.
While fellow division foes were signing up Dwight Howard and Ian Mahinmi over the summer, the Hornets pursued the static Roy Hibbert. While their counterparts were trying to firm up their benches for playoff runs with guys like Bojan Bogdanovic and Ersan Ilyasova, Charlotte compounded their mistake by flipping Hibbert and Spencer Hawes to Milwaukee for the barely-useful Miles Plumlee.
They’ll have little flexibility with their $103 million roster this summer, with eight of their top-nine salaried players returning under guaranteed contracts, plus center Cody Zeller due for a raise on his extended deal. Further, unlike Wizards fans of yore, Hornets fans haven’t been holding out hope of any hometown hoop heroes signing blockbuster deals this July. Nonetheless, Jordan is leaving it to his GM to finagle a way into contention next year. Cho will have one more season to get it done.
Under head coach Steve Clifford, the Hornets’ defensive gameplan could be summarized thusly: pack the paint, don’t foul (NBA-lows for opponents’ free throws and personal fouls-drawn), force opponents into a lot of under-contested threes (NBA-high 31.9 opponent 3FGAs per 100 possessions; Atlanta foes’ 30.4 ranks 3rd), pray they miss (37.0 opponent 3FG%, highest in East), get the defensive rebound (79.7 D-Reb%, 2nd in NBA) and give the ball to Kemba.
At the other end of the Spectrum Center, Charlotte’s offense can be boiled down to the ballhandler, usually Walker off the pick-and-roll (NBA-high 12.2 PPG on these plays), pulling up for jumpers, or forcing contact and drawing trips to the free throw line (NBA-high 81.5 team FT%).
Further, they don’t willingly turn the ball over (11.5 TOs per game, 3rd lowest in recorded NBA history; 2.02 assist-turnover ratio, 2nd in NBA). If there’s no whistle and no easy path to the rim, they’re instructed to kick the ball out in hopes of a three-pointer from Belinelli or forwards Frank Kaminsky, Marvin, or Nicolas Batum. If they miss, get back on defense (19.7 O-Reb%, 4th-lowest in NBA) and stifle opponents’ hopes for transition scores.
Roberts and Briante Weber are most likely to continue playing Kemba’s ballhandler role tonight, as Walker’s sore knee gets bubble-wrapped for the season. If Belinelli’s strained finger keeps him on ice as well, Coach Cliff will lean on Jeremy Lamb and Treveon Graham for spot duty. With Kemba and Marco playing, Charlotte won their last road game on the back end of a back-to-back (in Toronto, back on March 29, with 44 fourth-quarter points). But offensively, the sting is not the same with those guards absent from the floor.
Whether they’re legitimately tanking or not, Charlotte will try to keep the pace grindingly slow, in hopes of keeping the final outcome close. Last night, without Walker, the Hornets raced to an 11-point lead in Milwaukee, and was up five points through three quarters before being “held” to 13 points in the final frame of an 89-79 loss. Atlanta (42-38) has struggled with teams that rebound well and protect the ball, and they’ve been held to double-digit scoring in all three losses to Charlotte this season, most recently 105-90 in Uptown back on March 20.
With Thabo Sefolosha (groin) upgraded to questionable for tonight, a forthcoming challenge for the Hawks will be to see if their newfound bench production is sustainable and can carry forward into the postseason.
In particular, Bazemore (40.5 FG% on all shots as a starter; 38.5 3FG% when he’s not) is finding a bit of an offensive groove off the bench, and can spell either Hardaway (last 3 games: 11-for-12 fourth-quarter FGs) or Dennis Schröder in a pinch. Baze has eleven steals in his past three contests, matching his tally from his prior 15 starts.
Hardaway is among eight of the Hawks’ 20 most-utilized two-man units, and his only net negative in the team-scoring column is when he’s paired with rookie Taurean Prince, further tempting coach Mike Budenholzer to keep Timmy in the starting lineup going forward.
The two-game Cavs series (11-for-14 FGs) has seemingly re-enlivened Muscala, and Coach Bud will need to know if he can begin relying more on the backup big man when the Hawks have to go with smaller lineups. Millsap’s return formally relocated Ilyasova, one of the few subs who struggled to score against Cleveland (last two games: 1-for-11 3FGs), to the reserves. It helps if Atlanta can establish rotations ideal for not only Ersan’s skillset, but those of backup point guard Jose Calderon.
It will also be important for the Hawks to glean whatever knowledge they can from the rookies’ production over the next couple of games. Prince has only shined once in his past six starts (36.8 FG%, 1.8 APG), while DeAndre’ Bembry and Malcolm Delaney will be challenged to show what they could contribute defensively, in case they’re needed for short spells during a long playoff series.
Finally, these dress rehearsals could be a final chance for Dennis Schröder and Dwight Howard to flesh out their roles and responsibilities on the floor together. The starting pillars enjoyed Atlanta’s huge comeback against Cleveland’s best players from a towel-waving position on the bench.
Dwight has been Budballed (17.0 RPG in three games vs. CHA) by Zeller (15.7 PPG vs ATL, most vs. any team this season; 70.0 FG%) and the Hornets, and needs to display a different dimension to his game if he is to be useful against smaller and stretchier lineups. Atlanta is only 4-0 this season, but 3-0 in March, when Howard moves the ball and collects four assists in a game.
Dennis has averaged 20.7 PPG and 6.5 APG (4.7 TOs per game) while shooting 39.5 percent on threes in his past ten games, which includes 20 points and 6 assists in Charlotte on March 20. His aversion to making poor decisions with the ball may factor into his inability to draw contact and make opponents pay at the free throw line, where he has been deadly (last 10 games: 95.7 FT%) but infrequent of late (four FTAs in past five games). His ability to dictate the pace and the action at both ends of the court may not be as essential today, however, as it could be tomorrow, against Jeff Teague in a potential elimination game for the Pacers.
It’s hard to call the Hawks’ final two games a case of “fine-tuning” when very little of Atlanta’s play has been consistently “fine,” whether from minute-to-minute or game-to-game. But a hopefully healthy and spirited run could be just the momentum this team needs, no matter which opponent they might draw this weekend. The Hawks fans who repeatedly show up to cheer at Philips Arena, whether or not a major draw is in town, sure deserve a feel-good send-off tonight.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
