“Who He Play For???”
There’s nowhere to hide, Atlanta Hawks! It’s January. The Bravos aren’t out on the diamond immolating themselves, and the Failcons aren’t on the gridiron getting in their own way. No Dream and no Dawgs playing with annually outsized expectations, no Jackets with already low bars to crawl under. Before winter meetings and spring trainings, the Atlanta sports fan’s attention will be undividedly directed toward the Hawks, who will try to keep the New York Knicks (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast, MSG Network) from evening up the season series at the Highlight Factory.
A major factor in the brilliance of Atlanta’s campaign last January was the timing. Despite ongoing concerns as to whether Dan Quinn would ride into town on a white horse, the Hawks’ ascension to the top of the NBA East became increasingly harder to keep off the front-page headlines. Add in a tradition unlike any other (individual Hawks making runs for non-fan All-Star Game bids) and January becomes a great time to annually build up the Believer base.
It cuts both ways, though. Stories of the Hawks getting crop-dusted by Arron Afflalo and the Knicks, as was the case in Sunday’s 111-97 defeat up in Manhattan, can no longer be obscured by Matt Ryan’s weekly insistence on remaking himself into Vinny Testaverde. The quality of Atlanta’s nightly performance on the hardwood, flaws and all, will be laid bare, along with the Hawks’ ability to at least remain a solid contender in a much more competitive Eastern Conference. All eyes are on thee; what shall we see?
To achieve significant levitation toward a permanent spot at the top of the East, Atlanta (21-14) must recommit itself to a primarily defensive identity. At the moment, they look like a team more focused on creating good shots, not so much making them.
With a spry DeMarre Carroll bringing it as a starter last season, the Hawks established themselves as a team capable of getting stops and, with the help of crisp offensive ball movement, taking (and making) more advantageous shots than their opponents. Kent Bazemore (4-for-7 3FGs but 2-for-6 2FGs @ NYK on Jan. 3) and Thabo Sefolosha have stepped up their play in DMC’s departure, but perhaps not enough defensively to compensate for a slower-reacting Kyle Korver and a occasionally checked-out performances by Jeff Teague (3-for-12 FGs, 3 assists, 1 steal in 29.5 minutes @ NYK) and Al Horford (3 rebounds in 28.5 minutes @NYK).
Last season’s record-breaking edition of the Hawks finished 7th in the NBA in defensive rating (100.7 opponent points per 100 possessions). As it stands this season, they’re 7th in the East (101.2 D-Rating), although 11th overall in the league doesn’t look so bad, now that almost the entire West is going full 1980s.
Many of the Hawks’ conference contemporaries spent their past couple offseasons retooling their defensive strategies and reorienting personnel. Now, Atlanta’s the sole team among the East’s Top-9 allowing triple digits per game. Coincidentally, New York (16-19) is the sole bottom-five team in the East allowing under 100 PPG.
Poor perimeter defense is among the eye-poppers, and Atlanta’s 36.0 opponent 3FG% above-the-break is 7th worst in the NBA, but the worst in the East, while the 42.4 opponent 3FG% in right corners is the 5th-worst mark in the league. If you’re looking for the number of the truck that ran us over on Sunday, try #4. Afflalo exploited Atlanta’s underwhelming closeout efforts by sinking his first seven threes, all of them above the break, all of them buttressing New York’s double-digit leads even as Carmelo Anthony (4-for-10 FGs, 11 points, fewest shot attempts in complete game since 2012) was largely bottled up.
The Knicks’ 11-for-26 three-point shooting followed the Rockets sinking 11-of-20 five days before, which produced another hole for the Hawks to try climbing out from. Atlanta, by comparison, has shot 35% or more on treys four times since December 1, compared to 12 occasions back in October/November. Rather than jacking up a franchise-record 41 attempts (as was the case in Houston) just to try keeping up, tightening up the perimeter closeouts (especially after opponents’ second-chance and broken plays) without fouling will produce more desirable results.
Tack on a league-high 44.1 opponent 2FG% in-the-paint (outside the restricted area) and you can see that Atlanta’s defense is, as Mike Budenholzer is wont to say, “not where it needs to be.” Keyed by Paul Millsap (team-high 4 TOs but 5 steals @ NYK on Sunday), the Hawks’ defensive strategy has been Steal or Bust (9.6 steals per 100 possessions, 2nd in NBA, tops in East). Opponents wise enough not to put the ball on the floor, keep the ball stuck on one side of the floor, or mindlessly hold the ball at waist-level are most likely to recoup the benefits. New York connected on 9 of their 17 attempts in the paint beyond 5 feet on Sunday.
Millsap and Horford have to bring more to the table than strips against Robin Lopez, whose stat line on Sunday (5 TOs, 4 via Hawk steals, but 7-for-10 FGs and 5 O-Rebs, plus 5 assists) well-encapsulates how one-dimensional Atlanta’s defense can be. Jose Calderon and rookie Jerian Grant (combined 7-for-13 FGs; Grant 7 assists and 1 TO in 18 minutes) should not experience such little resistance getting to the interior and making plays. It’s on Teague, and whomever Budenholzer graces with minutes behind him, to limit penetration.
We’ll await to find out whether Dennis Schröder continues “developing” from the pine. If Coach Bud is intending to showcase Shelvin Mack (5-for-10 FGs, 5 assists, 3 TOs in 18.5 mins. @ NYK), he won’t want other GMs to know that Hawk opponents have scored 17.9 points per-36 off turnovers with Mack on the floor, the most by any non-76er who has logged 100+ minutes this season.
While Smooving Schröder, Bud has also sung the praises of rookie Lamar Patterson (last ten games: 50.0 FG%)at every opportunity, particularly as a short-term ballhandler and on-ball defender. With his and Mike Muscala’s contracts becoming fully guaranteed this week, Patterson will get even more opportunity to demonstrate his worth in the coming days. But at whose expense? We’ll have to wait-and-see.
It’s January, Atlanta Hawks. The whole town is watching! No pressure, though!
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
