“Get Out.”
Back to the Crab Barrel? It’s about to get a bit uncomfortable for the loser of tonight’s game, here at Philips Arena, between the Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, TSN2 in TOR). Several playoff-hungry squads (6-through-11 seeds, separated by five games in the East) are waiting for either team to fall in their direction, in hopes they might sink their claws into them.
The Hawks survived what amounted to NCAA-First-Round-in-Dayton-quality action on Wednesday. In what exemplified more March Sadness than Madness, the Brooklyn Nets made just one more critical goof to allow Atlanta (35-29) to advance. Toronto (38-26) fended off the Nets at home themselves, back on January 17, but have gone just 10-13 since, a slide that led to some sharp maneuvering by GM Masai Ujiri to plug holes ahead of their upcoming playoff dash.
At the trading deadline, Ujiri flipped Terrence Ross to Orlando in exchange for the Magic’s free-agent error, Serge Ibaka (career-high 16.4 PPG and 45.5 3FG%, plus 1.9 BPG in 7 games w/ TOR). He also converted the gravity-bound Jared Sullinger and a pair of second-rounders into former Suns forward P.J. Tucker (45.7 FG% in 7 games w/ TOR).
It’s hoped that the pair of acquisitions, in combination with former Hawks DeMarre Carroll (questionable for tonight, sprained ankle) and Lucas Nogueira, will boost the Raptors’ subpar defensive units, taking pressure off super-scoring All-Star guards DeMar DeRozan (27.4 PPG; 12.5 PPG and 10-for-28 FGs last two games) and Kyle Lowry.
When last these two teams met up, on December 16, the Hawks managed to turn a 128-84 loss into an embarrassment… for the other team. Barely two weeks after getting drubbed in Toronto, Atlanta returned to the same floor and caught the Raps off-guard, seizing the first half 69-52 before hanging on to prevail, 125-121.
What was a key difference? While his Hawks teammates continued to shoot poorly from outside, Kyle Korver swished six of his ten three-pointers. In Korver’s departure, Atlanta (4-for-20 3FGs vs. BKN on Wednesday) will need to find a sharper shooter, be it Junior Hardaway or Ersan Ilyasova, to help keep pace tonight.
At the time of that loss to Atlanta, the Raptors were putting up offensive efficiency values of historic proportions, exceeding 110 points in 27 of their first 41 contests. They have leveled off since then (110+ points in four of last 23 games; 104.7 O-Rating since January 17, 22nd in NBA), and were truly laid low when Lowry exited to repair an aggravatingly painful wrist on his shooting hand.
Toronto was already a low-volume passing team before Lowry’s post-All-Star-Game surgery (15.0 assist% pre-Jan. 17, 29th in NBA), but their ballhandlers have been going it alone all the more (NBA-low 13.6 assist% since Jan. 17) without his direction on the floor. The Raptors began this month totaling just 11 assists in a home loss to the Wizards, two nights after their 12 assists barely helped them squeak past the Knicks in MSG.
Better ballhandling by scoring-minded Cory Joseph, and a team-approach to better ball movement has helped of late. But by pressing a tighter defense and a slower tempo, as regulated by coach Dwane Casey, the Raps are more likely to pull out games with double-digit, instead of triple-digit, tallies.
Their 94-87 win in New Orleans on Wednesday was greatly enhanced once the malleable Pelican Anthony Davis left the game with a first-half wrist injury. Toronto’s comeback from a ten-point deficit against the Pellies added to their NBA-high 17 double-digit comeback wins this season.
Lowry is certain to return in time for the postseason, but the Raptors certainly planned on opening the first round at the Air Canada Centre. They are desperate to avoid giving away homecourt advantage, especially versus teams like the frenetic Hawks, who are just as likely to pull off fluky wins versus good teams as they are getting blown out by mediocre ones. In the event of a two-team tie at season’s end, tonight’s winner clinches the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Their perimeter defensive woes remain well-documented, but Atlanta, with the help of Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap, continues to make things tough on opponents around the rim (57.8 opponent restricted-area FG%, 4th-best in NBA; 38.2 opponent paint points per-48, 3rd-best in NBA).
The Hawks' wing defenders will want to compel Raptor ballhandlers, like DeRozan, Joseph, Ibaka and Carroll, to pick up their dribbles outside the paint and settle for long-range two-point shots. They can further neutralize Toronto (80.0 team FT%, 6th in NBA) by keeping them from amassing points off free throws. Toronto will strive to play Atlanta’s bigs with heightened physicality, in hopes of inducing early foul trouble and softening the Hawks’ interior.
A shrewder Dennis Schröder (31 points, vs. BKN on Wednesday, 20 consecutive FT makes) should be able to continue carrying the Hawks offense tonight, but his overall effectiveness will depend on how well he sets up his teammates for scores.
Schröder must resume connecting with Howard (10-for-13 FGs, 15 rebounds @ TOR on Dec. 16) until Jonas Valanciunas or Lucas Nogueira can figure out a way to stop him. If Dennis strays off-script, coach Mike Budenholzer should again turn first to former Raptor Jose Calderon, who is growing more acclimated with the Hawks’ gameplans.
The six-game homestand comes to a close for Atlanta tonight, but Hawks fans have been left with a bad taste in their mouths, following long stretches of poor-quality play. Ahead of a tough two-game road trip that begins tomorrow, the Hawks need to present their best basketball in weeks tonight, if they wish to keep departing Hawks fans from feeling even more crabby about their team’s playoff prospects.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
