“Need directions to your hotel? Follow me!”
Back at it! We’ll get to see how a weekend full of eggnog and hot toddy will affect our Atlanta Hawks Basketball Club, as they suit up to face a Washington Wizards team (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, CSN Mid-Atlantic) that’s hoping they’re finally hitting their stride.
Essentially the same lineup – minus ex-Hawk Mike Scott – that ousted Atlanta from the 2017 playoffs and set the Hawks’ CTRL+ALT+DEL in motion, the Wizards are clearly the head of the class in the Southeast Division… or, at least, they should be. With the Hawks, Magic, and Hornets slipping around in oil, and the heat dealing with injuries to Hassan Whiteside and other starters, this division is dressed up for Washington to seize. But for some reason, coach Scott Brooks’ charges cannot seem to sustain a winning run.
When last these two teams met, in D.C. back on November 11, the Wizards had merely a 6-5 record, even after kicking off 2017-18 with three straight wins. The lowly Hawks helped the Wiz kickstart a four-game streak with a 111-94 defeat at Capital One Center, thanks to a 37-point fourth quarter for the home squad. But here we are, over a month-and-a-half later, and the Wizards (19-15, 9-8 vs. East) have no more win streaks of three-or-more games to show for themselves.
Yes, they come into Philips Arena feeling sky-high after a 111-103 marquee victory in Boston over the Celtics on Christmas Day. But just last week, they topped New Orleans at home, got two full days off, then traveled to Brooklyn and got spanked, 119-84, the second loss to the Nets this month. They began the month decisively beating once-hot Detroit (without John Wall), got two full days off, and then found themselves getting tuned up by the Jazz, 116-69 in SLC, the second-worst beatdown (worst since a loss to Kareem and Oscar’s Bucks in 1970-71) in franchise history.
Prior to that, the Wiz suffered losses at the hands of the Lakers, Suns, and Mavericks, none on the back end of a back-to-back, the latter two at home. Sure, they’ve had their share of short-term injuries, most significantly 11 games missed by Wall. But their experienced “Death Lineup” of starters Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, and Marcin Gortat are a tepid 8-5 on the season.
With that record, there’s little wonder why overachieving Miami (18-16) is nipping at their heels. Division banners barely amount to a hill of beans these days, too, and defending Southeast champs find themselves mired in a middling tier of seven Eastern Conference playoff contenders, two of whom could be left standing once the musical chairs of the regular season stop in mid-April.
If they’re going to catch up with conference stalwarts Boston (ahead by 6.5 games) or Toronto and Cleveland (ahead by 5 games), now is the time for Washington to build some consistency and string victories together. After Atlanta, nine of the Wizards’ next ten games are back home.
When they’re at their best, the Wizards present a stifling perimeter defense (NBA-best 34.1 opponent 3FG%), shut down dribble penetration scorers (Dennis Schröder 2-for-16 FGs @ WAS on Nov. 11) and force an advantageous number of turnovers (season-high 14 steals vs. ATL on Nov. 11; two steals by BOS on Dec. 25). They turn live-ball rebounds and steals into downcourt opportunities for the speedy Wall (20.3 points and 9.6 assists and 1.2 steals per-36, down from 22.9, 10.5, and 2.0 respectively).
Where it gets problematic for the Wiz is when they do few of those things, or when Gortat and a healthy Ian Mahinmi cannot produce enough second-chances whenever Wall, Beal, Porter, or Morris are having off shooting nights. The 20.1 PPG Washington produces off turnovers in victories (4th in NBA) drops to 14.9 (a pedestrian 17th in NBA) in defeats. They’re 8th in O-Reb% when they win, but just 25th when they’re catching Ls.
As far as ex-Hawks go, you must give it up for Scott. His contributions were marginalized in his final season under coach Mike Budenholzer in Atlanta, burdened by the crushing weight of uncertain legal proceedings. Much like Coach Bud, though, Money Mike beat the rap, and his new team now needs his help to beat the Raps, the Celts, the Cavs and the like.
The Virginia native’s contributions in D.C. (career-highs of 9.7 PPG, 57.9 FG%, 42.3 3FG%), best since at least a 2013-14 campaign that gave him postseason renown, have not only made a longtime dormant Wizard reserve unit (also featuring momentary Hawks draftee Kelly Oubre, and ATLien Jodie Meeks) reasonably functional, they have helped the Wizards to hold things down until starting forwards like the rap-beating Markieff Morris (46.2 3FG% in last 12 games) and Otto Porter (45.8 3FG%, 5th in NBA) found their sea legs.
How do we know the Hawks (2-3 in last five games, all within 10-point margin) are well along the way to becoming one of the “Best Worst” Teams in NBA History? Atlanta (8-25) doesn’t prevail very often, but when teams lose, their net rating (minus-9.9 points per 100 possessions) is among the league’s ten best. Further, on the rare occasions the Hawks have won (usually, due to better team rebounding and ball-control), their plus-12.7 net rating as a winner is currently 8th-best in the NBA, tied with a Wizards team that desperately wants to fashion themselves as a Finals contender.
Tonight, the Hawks should be able to pull together a more complete, 48-minute effort, compared to last month’s second-half collapse in The District, thanks to the return of Ersan Ilyasova (21 points, 7-for-9 FGs vs. DAL last Saturday, career-high 58.5 TS%) in the starting lineup. An improving array of perimeter shooters, plus potentially steadier backup point guard play for Atlanta, ought to make it tougher for Brooks’ Bruthas to simply suit up and tie down Schröder (career-high-tying 33 points, 13-for-22 FGs, 7 assists, 2 TOs in the win over the Mavs) as the essential part of a winning gameplan.
With a healthy roster and a favorable schedule on the docket, it’s time for Washington to strike. But is the Wizards’ iron truly hot? Or will yet another sub-.500 squad take the starch out of them?
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
