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    lethalweapon3
    “I GOT MY SUIT AT SPENCER’S GIFTS! HO-HO-HO!”


     
    Recent games against Milwaukee, Orlando, and Toronto serving as a representative sample, the Atlanta Hawks have struggled to string together a consistent series of quarters, starts, or games. Yet, nobody in the Eastern Conference has time to play the violin for them, least of all the visiting Charlotte Hornets (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast in CLT and ATL; 92.9 FM in ATL).

    The Southeast Division leader by default, Charlotte (14-13) concludes its five-game road trip at the Strobelight Factory tonight. They’re trying to salvage this wreck of a trek after dropping all of the previous four games, including last night’s 96-88 loss in Boston.

    If they wanted to (they won’t), Atlanta could empathize with a Hornets team that led 50-41 at halftime before running out of gas, losing 55-38 in the second half. With Kemba Walker absent for personal reasons (active for tonight), the Hornets had no answer for the Celtics’ Isaiah Thomas.

    Also awakening in that second half was our old amigo, Al Horford (18 points, 8 boards, 5 blocks), and his comfort in and out of the paint surely continued to peeve coach Steve Clifford. The Hornets coach might enjoy mincemeat over the holidays, but he rarely minces words. Not since Olivia Newton-John rocked neon leotards has anyone uttered “The P word” so ardently.

    "The game came down to Physical play. If guys aren’t willing to be more Physical, we’ll be an up-and-down team, we’ll struggle to make the playoffs," Clifford told the Charlotte Observer. This, after the Hornets dropped their third-straight game in Washington on Wednesday, casually watching Marcin Gortat transform into Ivan Putski around the boards.

    Coach Cliff wasn’t done. "If we want to play with the Physicality we choose to at times, we have a chance to be a good team…”, he conveyed to the Observer. Any other Observations, coach? “It’s our greatest weakness. “It’s evident (against) teams that aren’t even Physical off the ball. I’ve been telling them for three weeks now: (Other teams are saying) ‘Make it hard on them. Bump them off every cut, bump them off every screen.’ Sooner or later, we have to respond."

    The return of Walker (career-bests of 46.6 FG%, 41.2 3FG%, 22.6 PPG) will be the wind beneath the Hornets’ wings tonight. But to keep Clifford from seeking out the number for the phone booth closest to Ivan Johnson, Charlotte’s players need the combination of girth and guile from Cody Zeller that successfully befuddled Atlanta’s Dwight Howard in the third quarter of the Hawks’ 100-96 loss in the Queen City on November 18.

    Fans can literally mark the moment differentiating a Hawks team that was cruising toward a 10-2 record (5-1 on the road) and the team we have now, one that sits at 13-13 and is often left wondering if anyone caught the tag number on the truck that ran them over.

    Having successfully fended off a fourth-quarter rally, the Hawks were up 89-86 in Charlotte when Zeller (9-for-10 FGs vs. ATL on Nov. 18) took the proximity of Dwight Howard’s pointy elbow and responded with a sell job that would have made Charlotte’s own Ric Flair proud. Dwight got ejected, Kemba got to the rim unimpeded, the Hornets turned the tables and won, and the Hawks haven’t been quite the same since.

    We know better than to suggest that the Hawks’ surprising 125-121 win in Toronto was the indication that the team is finally turning a corner, on some uptick after bottoming out several times in recent weeks. But a juxtaposition of the last Hawks-Hornets matchup with last night’s Raptors game suggests there may be some comforting signs.

    First and foremost, Dennis Schröder isn’t second-guessing himself and playing tentatively. Hardly a factor with 11 points on 5-for-12 shooting (0-for-5 3FGs) in Charlotte, Atlanta’s point guard went toe-to-toe with Kyle Lowry last night and came away with 24 points (8-for-12 FGs, 2-for-4 3FGs) plus a team-high six assists. He is taking more initiative to ensure that offensive plays are executed all the way through, not stifled by the team’s own lack of motion.

    Also creating hardly any impact as a starter in Charlotte (5 points, 2-for-6 FGs in 29 minutes) one month ago, Kyle Korver seems to be growing more at-ease, as he returns to a familiar career-long role as an off-the-bench sniper.

    Kyle confidently nailed six triples last night, and had close calls on several more attempts, as his 19 points helped create just the cushion the Hawks needed before, and during, Toronto’s inevitable second-half rallies. Charlotte’s defensive ace Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was slightly used yesterday in Boston, so expect extended minutes by MKG to alleviate Nicolas Batum (22 points, 6-for-19 FGs @ BOS on Friday) and try cooling off Korver tonight.

    This time around, Howard won’t be duped by Zeller (1-for-7 FGs @ BOS) and the Hornets’ antics in their desperation to play Physical and somehow throw the Hawks’ center off his game. We were treated to a surlier, more assertive Dwight on offense last night (27 points, incl. 7-for-10 FTs; 17 rebounds, incl. 7 O-Rebs) and his activity kept the Raptors on their heels literally from the jump. He has seen a good sample of what referees will and won’t tolerate, and is adjusting his game accordingly.

    Charlotte has averaged a league-low 31.0 paint points per 48 minutes since their losing streak began, and it will be incumbent upon Walker, Batum, and Ramon Sessions to not only find avenues to penetrate, but also to draw Paul Millsap and Howard’s attention and feed Charlotte’s big men (including Spencer Hawes) for assisted interior shots.

    Marvin Williams, Frank Kaminsky, and Hawes all have inclinations to run to the perimeter, especially if they used tape of Orlando’s visit to Philips Arena for scouting purposes. But their direction under Clifford is to force more action around the rim, in hopes of getting Atlanta’s bigs in foul trouble and once again opening things up late in the game. Clifford wants to see their body talk.

    Promptly after beating the Hawks in Charlotte, the Hornets’ fortunes took a dip with a four-game slide. They recovered enough to move up to 3rd in the East, but now they are anxious that their losing skid will extend to a season-long five games, relinquishing the gains they made on Atlanta just one month ago. Hawks fans, though, have heard a similar sob story from incoming visitors in recent weeks. And they’d really like to see a different ending.

    Let’s Go Hawks!

    ~lw3

    lethalweapon3
    “I WILL NOT EAT ANY MORE CRANBERRY BLISS BARS. I WILL NOT EAT ANY MORE CRANBERRY BLISS BARS. I WILL NOT EAT ANY…”


     
    Will the Atlanta Hawks widen the Eastern Conference Crab Barrel? Heading into another tough matchup with the Raptors in Toronto (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, TSN in T-Dot), followed by a Saturday night trip back home to face the Hornets, it’s sure shaping up that way.

    Our half-baked Hawks found plenty of offense on Tuesday. Problem was, they allowed Orlando (without Nik Vucevic) to get plenty more, in a 131-120 torching that was just the latest in a trend of embarrassing and/or lopsided losses. Orlando came in as the worst offense in the NBA outside of Philly or Dallas (or Atlanta). Guess who currently has the best?

    Toronto (18-7) is threatening to shatter all-time NBA records for offensive efficiency. At 115.3 points per 100 possessions, that rate would be the highest in recorded league history (since such records were first kept in 1983-84). It’s better than Golden State’s current 113.5 O-Rating, and better than the Showtime Lakers of 1986-87, history’s current season-long leader. In more modern times, only Steve Nash and Alvin Gentry’s Suns of 2009-10 (112.3) came close to what the Dubs and Raps are doing right now.

    Toronto is accomplishing this with a 2-guard that makes just 28.6% of his threes. They’re led, of course, by DeMar DeRozan (career-high 28.0 PPG; 2.9 more shots per game than last season, in 0.3 fewer minutes). Thanks largely to DeRozan, Toronto’s the only team that averages over one point per possession (1.03) on isolation plays, resulting in scores nearly half (49.6%) the time. Interestingly, the Hawks have a league-high 49.6 eFG% on isos, but as you know, relying just 6.0% of the Budball offense on those plays renders that fact trivial.

    The Raps are breaking offensive records while averaging just 20.4 APG (26th in NBA). The antithesis of Budball, Dwane Casey’s club knows that their assists come not from passing, but in setting screens that allow Kyle Lowry (last ten games: 23.4 PPG, 56.8 FG%, 59.2 3FG%, 7.3 APG) to improvise.

    In addition to isos, the Raps (guided by Lowry) lead the NBA with scores on 46.8% of P&R ballhandler plays, their 50.7 eFG% on those plays a league-best, their 0.96 points per possession behind only Portland’s 0.97. The roll man hardly gets touches (28th in play frequency), yet even they feast, the Raptors scoring on an NBA-high 57.7% of roll man plays.

    Unlike the Hawks, who are constantly a work in progress/regress, there is no round-hole training in store for the Raps’ many square pegs. Casey allows his top talent to control the ball and make the plays they’re most comfortable executing. By doing so, his team becomes the RON RAPRS, by eliminating the TOs (12.3 turnovers per 100 possessions, 2nd-lowest in league to Charlotte’s 12.0). Against the eight teams that turn the ball over the least, the Hawks’ record is 0-5, allowing 126.7 PPG in those last three matchups.

    Included in that group is the 128-84 pasting endured at the hands of the Raps on this Air Canada Centre floor just two weeks ago, the biggest beatdown Toronto has ever enjoyed against anybody pretending to be an NBA outfit.

    The Hawks let the bottom fall completely out on December 3rd with a 42-14 Toronto advantage in the final quarter, Atlanta unable to keep the lead from widening even after Casey put four backups and rookie Pascal Siakam on the floor to close things out (our old friend Bebe Nogueira had 9 points and two blocks in the 4th). Toronto players coughed up the ball just 12 times (28 assists; 13-for-24 3FGs), compared to the Hawks’ 18 (21 assists; 7-for-28 3FGs), a modest number for the visitors these days.

    The Hawks can give themselves half a chance tonight, not just by keeping the turnover margin close, but by keeping Toronto Canada-Dry at the line, where they get 26.1 shots per contest (second in the East only to…? Yep, Charlotte’s 26.5). Atlanta actually did this two weeks ago, “holding” Toronto to a season-low (for both teams) 11 FT attempts, or else that 44-point margin might have gotten even worse.

    Hawks defenders have to draw lines from the rim out to the three-point break lines, and keep Lowry and DeRozan from getting open or lightly-contested looks from within the “funnel zone.” On-ball defenders need to ICE Toronto’s sideline screens and make their dynamic duo work from the corners and baselines. Dennis Schröder and Thabo Sefolosha should rely on the baseline/endline plus help from the Hawks’ bigs to keep Lowry and DeRozan out of the paint and settling for well-contested shots.

    Paul Millsap (DNP @ TOR on Dec. 3) allowed Serge Ibaka to have a field day from outside on Tuesday, and must rotate out to the perimeter and contest Patrick Patterson (season-high 17 points vs. ATL on Dec. 3) whenever the Raptor forward is in the game. Atlanta’s wings have to help the bigs clog the middle, and make Toronto’s passes out to corner-oriented shooters like Terrence Ross (44.7 3FG%) and DeMarre Carroll a tougher task.

    Swapping out the TNT duo (Timmy ‘n Thabo) with the K&K Music Factory (Kyle ‘n Kent) has led to good vibrations at the starts of the first and second halves for Atlanta (last 3 games: starters 5th in O-Rating, 14th in D-Rating). But it’s also led to a lack of explosiveness by the reserves (last 3 games: bench 12th in O-Rating, 28th in D-Rating).

    There’s no help coming for the M&Ms (Moose and Malcolm), who have melted after energetic starts to the season, even before losing the offense/defense contributions of Hardaway and Sefolosha. Better coaching effort is needed for Mike Muscala (plus/minus: +4.3 first 11 games, -7.2 last 14 games, no “positives” last 9 games) and Malcolm Delaney (+8.5 first ten games, -8.0 last ten games with one “positive”) to better understand their defensive roles.

    The reserves also must stop getting caught out of position when transitioning to D, or else they’ll continue to get blitzed by benches like Toronto, whose offensive efficiency (117.7 O-Rating and +15.1 net rating, best in NBA) is even better than the starters (113.7, 3rd in NBA).

    When bench players like Orlando’s Elfrid Payton (career-highs of 26 points AND 14 assists, +47 on/off vs. ATL) and Jeff Green (+55 on/off vs. ATL) are getting carte blanche shots, someone is not doing their homework. Ross (6-for-8 FGs vs. ATL on Dec. 3) has decided to use breakaway dunks to advertise his candidacy for All-Star Saturday Night, and Atlanta needs to keep him off SportsCenter/SportsCentre tonight.

    Mike Budenholzer might help the struggling bench out by allowing a third “T” (rookie Taurean Prince) to share some of Kyle Korver’s and Kent Bazemore’s duties. Prince has been relegated to spot duty (less than 2 minutes) in the past two games. Despite some struggles in the past couple weeks, including his last visit to Toronto, expanded minutes for Taurean could help Atlanta better contest opponent shots.

    If Muscala struggles to make a positive defensive impact from the jump, Coach Bud should not hesitate to turn to a third “K” (ex-Raptor Kris Humphries), if only in search of an immediate spark until the Hawks finish benefitting from the insurance collection on the fourth “T” (Tiago Splitter).

    Thanks to a conference full of underwhelming teams, the off-days (five in the past six) have helped the Hawks (12-13) more than anything they’ve done on the floor. As frustrating as Atlanta’s season has been over the past month, you look up in the standings, and there is Charlotte, the East’s third-seed of the moment, just 1.5 games ahead of them. It’s almost a mirage!

    Taking each game seriously, and one at a time, and pulling off at least two out of their next three, might be just enough for the Hawks and Hornets (14-12) to trade places in the standings. Continuing to perform with predictable unpredictability, though, would have more and more Hawks fans staring in the other direction.

    Charlotte’s Kemba Walker was excused from tonight’s game in Boston for personal reasons, and will be ready to go on Saturday night in Atlanta. A two-game weekend losing streak prior to a trip to OKC would allow the Hawks to build a bridge for fellow division foes Washington (1.5 GB) and Orlando (2.0 GB) back into playoff contention. The Hawks claim there’s still plenty of camaraderie in the locker room, but letting the Wizards and Magic up for air is not the kind of bridge-building anyone has in mind.

     
    Let’s Go Hawks!

    ~lw3

    lethalweapon3

    Magic at Hawks

    By lethalweapon3, in Game Previews,

    LOTTERY TREADMILL BY: ORLANDO MAGIC, PRICELESS


     
    How much would you pay to go win 30-35 games?

    That’s an uncomfortable question facing the Orlando Magic, who come into Atlanta on a sudden downturn to face the Hawks (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Fox Sports Florida) for the first time in the regular season.

    One franchise has been an NBA Playoffs participant for nine seasons running; the other is desperate to avoid stretching their string of postseason absences to five years. One team is the closest to being under the salary cap line ($5.1 million over) among the five teams in the Southeast Division. The other team is $7.5 million further over the cap ($12.6 million over) -- highest in the division, third-overall in the East, eighth-overall in the NBA. All the above statements are contradictory.

    It was June 2012, and both the Hawks and the Magic had caught a case of Spurs Fever. When the 2011-12 season ended, both organizations chased after executives of the Western Conference leaders in San Antonio. Seeking a fresh start, Orlando hired the fresh-faced Spurs’ director of basketball operations Rob Hennigan, at age 30 the youngest GM in the league. Eager to rebuild without a full teardown, Atlanta, in turn, zeroed in on the Spurs’ VP of basketball ops, Danny Ferry, hiring him just days later.

    Under Ferry, out went Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, the VetMins, and coach Larry Drew. In came Mike Scott, Paul Millsap, Lou Williams, Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll, coach Mike Budenholzer, Dennis Schröder, Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore.

    Out went Ferry, eventually. But a lot of his low-budget gambles paid off, and the Hawks not only sustained themselves as a postseason mainstay, they reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in their history. While the Johnson deal made Hawks fans pull up a chair to the Ferry feast, it was the alleviation of the incessant Dwightmare in Orlando that made Rob “You Blind” Hennigan the NBA’s hotshot wunderkind.

    Within two seasons of the four-team deal, the Lakers (Dwight Howard) and the Sixers (Andrew Bynum) were already suffering from Buyer’s Remorse, while the Nuggets (Andre Iguodala) had squandered whatever gains they had made. Hennigan further pilfered the Nuggets in 2014 by giving Arron Afflalo back in exchange for young gunner Evan Fournier.

    Further, Orlando had lucked their way into obtaining the prize of the Dwight mega-deal, their future stud center: Nikola Vucevic, a double-double machine! And just look at all the lottery picks coming their way! Atlanta hasn’t drawn a lotto pick since 2007; the Magic have had five such picks in the past four seasons. Under Hennigan’s watchful eye, the future seemed so bright!

    Well, the future is here, and it’s become blinding to Magic fans. Ferry’s 2013 coaching hire has outlasted even his tenure and gained a Coach of the Year nod while picking up where Ferry left off. At the same time, Hennigan’s Magic stalled under the direction of former Spurs acolytes Jacque Vaughn and James Borrego.

    Taskmaster Scott Skiles dragged the Magic to a 35-47 record last year, but quit after the season, and was so fed up we may need to convene a search party to find him today. In season #5, Hennigan is on coach #4: former Indiana Pacers coach Frank Vogel, who is adamant about putting a defensive imprint on a roster lacking in that department ever since bidding adieu to Howard.

    About all those lottery picks. The Magic drafted Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, Euro-stash Dario Saric, Mario Hezonja, and Domantas Sabonis. Saric was swapped on draft day for their point-guard-of-the-future, Elfrid Payton, whose collegiate reputation as a plus-defender (like Bazemore, a former Lefty Driesell Award winner) hasn’t translated to the pros.

    Oladipo and Sabonis were sent packing (with Ersan Ilyasova) to Oklahoma City, Orlando in turn receiving Serge Ibaka (1300 blocks since 2009-10, most in NBA; Dwight 4th with 1010) in its quest to prove it’s serious about becoming defensive-minded.

    Oladipo and Sabonis are thriving as starters with the Russellaires, while Ibaka has become more of a three-point bomber (career-high 40.7 3FG% on 3.2 attempts per game) than an on-ball defender. First Gordon (career-low 41.3 FG%), and now Payton and Vucevic have been benched under Vogel, while Hezonja is being bubble-wrapped in search of trade partners.

    Speaking of trades, December 15 ushers in the availability of many more players on NBA rosters to deals, specifically summertime acquisitions like Bismack Biyombo, Jeff Green, and D.J. Augustin. Ibaka and Biyombo were brought on to show the fanbase the team is serious about spending cash to win, and (after sending Tobias Harris to Detroit for Ilyasova and Brandon Jennings last season’s deadline, a move suspected as having been ordered from on-high, above Hennigan) finally dead-serious about defense, Green and Augustin notwithstanding.

    But in the process, the duo of Ibaka and Biyombo (plus Green) have managed to crowd Gordon and Vucevic out of meaningful minutes. While the team D-Rating finally began to pick up in recent weeks (103.5, 12th in NBA; 16th last season), the O-Rating has fallen through the floor (98.0, below everyone but Philly’s 96.8). Just weeks ago, the Orlando Sentinel’s Brian Schmitz opined that Hennigan's plans have, “flopped as spectacularly as New Coke, pay toilets and ‘Zoolander 2.’” New Coke… ouch! Atlantans don’t need that reminder.

    The team that’s third-highest over the salary cap in the East now sits 11th among the conference’s 15 teams, slightly ahead of 12th-seed Washington. This, after having lost three games in a row, including allowing 121 points in a Saturday night home loss to 9-15 Denver. Further, the Magic’s 10-15 record has been puffed up by a weak schedule (league-low 45% winning percentage among played opponents, as per PlayoffStatus.com), so things could get worse soon.

    These days, Magic fans are straining to recall just what was so bad about Otis Smith. “A big build-up has been replaced by a big letdown,” said Schmitz. Hennigan, who received a Jeff Fisher-lite contract extension in 2015, now stands on the shakiest ground for an NBA GM anywhere outside of New Orleans (although at least Dell Demps has a shield in Ferry now).

    Hennigan’s desperate to swing some deals, soon; as of this Thursday, every player aside from leading scorer Fournier (re-signed this summer, trade-restricted until January 15; career-low 36.4 3FG%) will be immediately on the block, before CEO Alex Martins considers putting Hennigan’s job on it instead.

    Atlanta has been working through offensive struggles of its own, as a recent dip slipped them into a momentary tie with the Magic in the standings. Hawks fans and players alike have ample reason to want a widening of the 2.5-game gap between the two teams, for reasons that go well beyond the former Magic franchise star who now suits up at center in Atlanta.

    Hennigan spent the past two offseasons at the OPM (Other People’s Money) ATM, and at least once, his maneuvering has cost the Hawks. He swung for the fences in 2015 by flying up to Atlanta, ringing All-Star Millsap’s doorbell, and offering him a long-term max-contract. The Hawks’ scramble to counter-offer Millsap cost them precious time once Toronto rolled into town, too, and pried Carroll free.

    The Magic had no interest in acquiring Sabonis in the 2016 Draft, but they did have an interest in keeping the stretchy big man from falling into Atlanta’s lap. Picking right in front of the spot their division rival had recently traded up into, Orlando snatched up Sabonis and shipped him to OKC for what is shaping up to be a one-year (or less) rental of Ibaka, whose $12.25 million contract expires this summer. As per at least one media report, they were also trying to stick mouse ears on Bazemore, one of many teams coveting the rising swingman in free agency before he chose to stay in the ATL.

    The first team to call Baze this summer, the Milwaukee Bucks, could only watch on Friday night as their top free agent target was on the sideline, sore knee and all, doing his best Tony Manero impression. That’s because, against all convention, his Hawks were committed to Staying Alive. Bazemore was rooting his Hawks to a 114-110 victory, featuring the improbable erasure of a 20-point Milwaukee lead, the biggest comeback win in the NBA this season.

    In this pace ‘n space era of NBA hoops, 20-point deficits are becoming the new 10-point deficits. Orlando knows this well: they beat Philadelphia last month after falling behind by 18. Yet the Hawks (12-12) should not grow accustomed to digging such holes for themselves, with the intention of somehow triumphantly crawling out.

    This win was improbable largely due to the Hawks’ inability, once again, to get the full offense in gear, up until the third quarter. This particular bounceback was made possible by the continually improving play of Schröder (career-high 33 points; 17 in the opening quarter, 8 in the final one), the steady mind of Millsap (23 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 blocks), and the team’s collective recognition that sound ball movement and off-ball player movement are what grant their offense advantages from one game to the next.

    “The level to which our activity dissipates when we’re not making shots is… you can’t do that in this league,” Coach Bud noted to the AJC and postgame reporters. Another woeful first-half outing (3-for-17 3FGs) was flipped with 8-for-13 3FG shooting in the third-quarter, and 8-for-13 2FG shooting in the pivotal fourth.

    All eight of Atlanta’s major participants logged at least two assists in Milwaukee, seven of the octet with at least three. Half of Howard’s two dimes turned out to be the most momentous of the game, setting up Tim Hardaway, Jr. with a corner three that finally wiped out the deficit and had Bazemore nearly splitting the inseam of his skinny pants in jubilation.

    “Bazemore said at halftime, this could be a turnaround for our season,” noted Hardaway to the AJC. “It just shows with the resiliency in this locker room and playing for each other, it’s at an all-time high right now. We need it more than ever after having that tough stretch.”

    Atlanta (12-12) also could use some consecutive non-game days to recuperate and regroup; they haven’t had any since November 13-14. Three off-days precede tonight’s game with the Magic, and two more follow ahead of a challenging road-home back-to-back with the Raptors and Hornets.

    The time off may have been enough to have Bazemore, this past weekend’s Ring-of-Honoree up at Old Dominion, out of leisure suits and in uniform for today’s game (currently listed as probable). But the recovery period has given the starting small forward time to study and recalibrate after a struggling start to the season (career-low 35.8 FG%; 29.1 FG%, 3.4 RPG in his past ten games).

    Sefolosha (41.4 FG%, 18.8 3FG% in last ten games) has been similarly poor in recent weeks on the offensive end and, like point guard Malcolm Delaney, gets caught up in trying to score in isolation when times get tough.

    But Thabo’s ability to rebound, pick off passes, and defend bigger and taller opponents has made him a more favorable play than Kent alongside Hardaway, whose defensive work is beginning to reap dividends (minus-6.3 opponent differential FG% on defended shots, 7th-best among NBA guards and wings w/ min. 10 games & 5.0 opponent FGAs per game). Sefolosha also avoids turning the ball over, which helps all the more when he’s actively involved (last two starts: 9 assists, 1 TO) in Atlanta’s ball movement schemes.

    Opponents have gathered a team-high 9.3 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes with Bazemore on the floor (13th-most in NBA, min. 15 games played). When he returns as a starter, Baze’s willingness to apply his wingspan in ways that help Howard and Millsap minimize opponents’ extra chances will enhance his, and the team’s, defensive effectiveness.

    Bazemore’s shot mechanics may be hampered by the anticipation that he’s going to miss the field goal attempt. Kent has seven offensive rebounds in his last five games (five O-Rebs in the prior 17 games).  In four of those recent games, at least one of his offensive rebounds came from following his own shot.

    Those missed shots ranged from 2 to 24 feet, three of them from 15 feet out, and that says nothing of the second-chances he pursued but didn’t get. Teammates have also gotten into the act of chasing the rebound after an expected Bazemore miss.

    Adherence to Budball dictates not just taking the open shot created within the flow of the offense, but getting back in defensive position as priority over chasing follows, no matter how inaccurate the shot becomes. Kent’s own confidence in his offense will improve if he’s focused on execution as he was coached, instead of acting in anticipation of poor results.

    The Magic (33.3 team 3FG%, 71.2 FT%), like the Hawks (32.3 3FG%, 70.7 FT%), have not been sharp shooters from the perimeter, or the charity stripe. But while Atlanta is a much surer shot inside the arc (51.1 2FG%, 5th in NBA), the same cannot be said of Orlando (46.2 2FG%, 29th in NBA).

    The Magic’s cause could be helped if Vucevic would shoot better than 52.9% within 3 feet of the hoop, and if Vooch, Ibaka, and Gordon would grow less enamored of long 2-point attempts. But Howard and the Hawks will be ready to turn probable rebounds into transition points at the other end. Vucevic is questionable to play due to a back contusion sustained last week, while Biyombo has been hampered by an injured shoulder.

    Schröder and Delaney will work to thwart drives by Augustin and Payton, the latter’s field goal percentage dropping precipitously away from the rim (63.4 at-rim FG%, 31.2 FG% from 3 feet out). That’s part of what has prompted Vogel to turn instead to Augustin in the starting lineup, but the pairing of Augustin and Fournier in the backcourt has the Magic leaking oil on defense. Neither put much pressure on opposing guards, and their funneling of ballhandlers into the teeth of the Magic’s shot-block-hungry front line (5.6 team BPG, 4th in NBA) tends to leave somebody open.

    Orlando has allowed at least 109 points in the past four games, putting its offensively inefficient team behind the 8-ball, especially against higher-paced teams. Small forwards have feasted on the Magic in each of their last three losses, a good sign for Atlanta’s struggling shooters. And while Orlando last won in Washington a week ago, they had few answers for the speedy John Wall (52 points on 45 total shot attempts).

    Atlanta will want no repeat of the prior two regular season meetings with the Magic. The back-to-back defeats in February included a low-percentage buzzer-beating jumpshot by Vucevic in Orlando, and a 117-110 overtime loss the next day in Atlanta. Orlando had not won two straight in over a month before those victories, and while the wins seemed to be a pick-me-up, ending a similar three-game skid, the Magic would not win two in a row again for another 45 days.

    That second loss had Orlando eroding a 20-point deficit of their own (Hawks up 28-8 in the first quarter, 71-53 midway through the third), and OT was forced by a 29-18 Magic advantage in the fourth quarter. Vucevic, Payton, Fournier, and even Hezonja piled up a combined 26 points in the paint in the rematch, something Howard will seek to minimize in keeping the Magic from evening up their road record (6-7) this season.

    The Hawks need this win tonight to keep the vibes positive, but also to keep the Magic trending downward. After all, nobody needs Hennigan around next summer drumming up new schemes to stick it to the Hawks again. For once, let’s make Hennigan pay.

    Let’s Go Hawks!

    ~lw3

    lethalweapon3
    “Gin? Do you see gin? I don’t see any gin!”


     
    Top 3 in-conference records in the NBA East? Well, for starters, there’s the Cavaliers at 12-4. Then, there’s the Celtics at 10-4. Right behind them? Your Atlanta Hawks, who come into today’s visit with the Milwaukee Bucks (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Fox Sports Wisconsin) sporting a sound 9-5 mark versus its fellow conference teams. So, why are the Cavs and C’s looking fancy with first- and third-seeds, while your Fine Feathered Friends are peering at the playoff picture from the outside?

    The conference, after Cleveland and probably Toronto, is shaping up to be a tightly wound pack for the rest of the field, down to the 11th and perhaps even the 12th seed. To distinguish oneself among that subset, it helps tremendously to take care of business on the road, especially versus teams that would (or should) not be favored to win if they were playing in your house (yes, Phoenix, I’m looking at you).

    Beating Western teams is cool, but an average-or-above road record not only increases the likelihood of a 2-through-4-seed in the East, it does wonders for your team’s first-round confidence if you wind up 5-through-8.

    The Cavs got tripped up by Atlanta less than a month ago, but reasserted their spot atop the East, thanks to a 6-3 record in away games. Boston is merely 5-4 at home, but they’ve got Tommy Heinsohn on the verge of writing love letters when they leave the Gahden, going 8-5 on the road so far. It’s early, but the four Eastern Conference teams with above-.500 road records rank 1-through-4 in the East, a similar deal for seven teams out West.

    As for the Hawks? Well, they come into the worst-named NBA stadium (the BMO Harris Bradley Center -- what is that, even?) trying to avoid a slide to 4-9 away from Thank Goodness We’re Not T. Rowe Price Philips Arena.

    After a nice 3-1 road mark to start the season, Atlanta (11-12) could only come out on top in one of their next eight away games. While those contests were packed in the space of 18 days, with two home games in the mix, the Hawks’ next nine road games are spread out over 33 calendar days, with six interspersing games back home. That allows Mike Budenholzer and the Hawks’ crack coaching staff significantly more time to prepare and adjust as needed.

    South Wisconsin does it like nobody does! The Bucks’ halftime entertainment on this Flashback Friday features one-hit wonder Montell Jordan (“Let’s Ride”? “Get It On Tonite”? Please, nobody’s trying to hear that). The L.A. dance-floor crooner (now Gwinnett County preacher!) is aware he needs to get his groove on before he goes to get paid. Yet, with all respect due to Montell, there’s just one guy on the floor of this Who’s This Harris Bradley Guy Center consistently showing people How to Do It.

    If you’re able to say Giannis Antetokounmpo without clicking your tongue, you’re a better person than I am. You could also say Giannis is a certified G, and a bonafide stud, already at the newly tender age of 22. This forward-guard is 6-foot-11, boasting a 12-foot-2-inch vertical, a foot-long hand and a 7-foot-3 wingspan, and while Jason Kidd can’t teach that, he’s certainly giving it his best try.

    Aside from Antetokounmpo, only centers David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon have averaged over 20 PPG, 8 RPG, two blocks and two steals per game in any season. Giannis, however, is not a center, and he throws in 6.1 APG for good measure, providing Kidd a multifaceted weapon that can be deployed everywhere except beyond the offensive 3-point line (23.9 3FG%). He compiled 15 points, 12 boards and 11 assists (plus four blocks and a pair of steals) in Wednesday’s win over Portland, and his next triple-double game would already tie him with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (8) for the all-time Bucks franchise mark.

    The nine-time All-Defensive Team member, coach Kidd is crafting a team with a young, defensive imprint, led by Antetokounmpo and the surprisingly nascent center John Henson (2.2 BPG in 11 games since becoming a starter, in place of Miles Plumlee). Even Greg Monroe, relegated to Kidd’s bench, is getting into the act (team-high 2.6 steals per-36, up from 1.1 last season). Buck opponents have shot an NBA-low 42.7 FG%, including 37.6 2FG% in-the-paint (outside the restricted area) and a league-low 31.8 3FG% (29.4% above-the-break).

    As for offense? Well, it’s not their forte, but even without Khris Middleton around, Milwaukee (50.8 2FG%, 7th in NBA) is showing they have more than enough to fill in the gaps. Slashing power forward Jabari Parker (21.8 PPG) is slowly finding his range (46.5 2FG% from 16 feet out; 32.8 3FG%). Plus, they’ve got ATLien rookie Malcolm Brogdon (41.9 3FG%, team-high 92.0 FT%) and hired guns Mirza Teletovic, Tony Snell, Jason Terry and Michael Beasley (probable, sprained foot). That’s to say nothing of point guard Matthew Dellavedova, who deserves nothing being said of him.

    In one of their finest quarters of play, the Hawks (led by a bench brigade of Taurean Prince, Tim Haradway, Jr., and Ryan Kelly) rattled off 19 consecutive points in the second quarter along the way to a 31-9 frame against the visiting Bucks on November 16.

    Milwaukee did their best to scramble back in it during the second half, led by Parker’s 15-point third-quarter, whittling a 24-point Hawk lead down to three late in the final quarter. But the deficit proved just a little too big for the Bucks (39.8 team FG%) to overcome as the Hawks maxed out their record at 9-2. Atlanta’s 48.6 team FG% in their 107-100 win was the highest allowed for any Bucks opponent this season.

    While the Hawks went on to stumble their way into December, Milwaukee (11-9) has prevailed in six of their past eight games, including five of their last six. That stretch included a sound thumping of the Cavs at home and a close loss to the Spurs after a 13-point halftime lead, plus – wouldn’t you know it – a pair of road wins, at Orlando and in Kidd’s personal catnip of Brooklyn.

    As Bob Rathbun noted earlier today, Buckshot results in 108.8 PPG and 48.3 FG% at home, compared to 94.7 PPG and 41.4 FG% outside of Milwaukee. Thus, the Hawks need to take the things they do best and put that show on the road, if teams like the Bucks are to be defeated in their own house.

    The league’s leader at 4.5 offensive rebounds per game, Dwight Howard (7 O-Rebs, 17 total rebounds vs. MIA) should decide if he wants to help produce second-chance points for Atlanta, one of the worst perimeter shooting offenses in the league (32.1 3FG%, 28th in NBA; 30.3% of FGAs from 3-point land, 12th-highest in NBA; 4-for-19 3FGs vs. MIA). Or if, alternatively, Dwight wants to help thwart quick scores by Milwaukee, the East’s top fastbreak-scoring offense (16.5 fastbreak PPG, 5th in NBA).

    In transition, Antetokounmpo and Parker are likely to have a bead on Thabo Sefolosha and Paul Millsap (4 steals, 3 blocks vs. MIA on Wednesday), respectively. So, it’s probable that Howard will not want to get caught parked beneath the offensive hoop when his teammates loft long-range shots or turn over live balls (Milwaukee’s 18.9 PPG off TOs, 2nd in NBA). Notably, only one of Dwight’s seven O-rebs against the heat on Wednesday followed a teammate’s shot from outside the paint.

    Instead, expect Howard and the Hawks’ pivot players to be actively involved in high screens to spring Dennis Schröder (last 4 games: 48.3 FG%, 87.5 FT%, 8.0 APG, 1.5 TOs/game), Malcolm Delaney and Tim Hardaway, Jr. (active after banging his knee vs. MIA on Wednesday) free inside.

    The long arms of Henson and Antetokounmpo converging on Schröder and the Hawks’ driving guards naturally raise the degree of difficulty for shots off penetration. Rather than being stationary and watching the guards force up circus shots, Atlanta’s forwards need to move toward the corners and provide outlets for the guards’ passes.

    Budball, Activate! When three-point shots go up, there is no time to admire the handiwork; the Hawks’ forwards must get back on defense and account for Giannis and Jabari, who each benefitted from some practice-session tutelage from Kussin’ Kevin Garnett this past week. Granted extra floor time with the momentary absence of Kent Bazemore (knee, mind), look for an active defensive effort from rookie Taurean Prince off the bench, especially if the starters fail to keep up in transition.

    As demonstrated at the start and the close of the Hawks’ 103-95 win over Miami, Schröder (8-for-15 FGs, 7 assists, 2 TOs) is doing a better job of sensing when, and how, to call his own number. Delaney (last five games: 34.8 eFG%, 18.6 assist%; 41.7 eFG% and 28.4 assist% in prior games) gets caught up in iso-ball and must disabuse himself of the notion that he’s starring for Lokomotiv Kuban.

    Howard’s primary backup, Mike Muscala, has had a career season on offense, generally boosting the Hawks’ bench production. But his biggest challenge is becoming evident on the opposite end of the floor. Moose has secured the rebound on just 16.7% of contested rebound opportunities, the lowest among 56 at-least-occasional centers averaging at least 15 minutes per game.

    Granted, a lot of that can be attributed to pairings with Howard, who gets first dibs when they’re in together (Dwight+Moose +14.1 D-Reb% as a 2-man combo). But when Muscala plays the 5-spot alongside Millsap (Sap+Moose -6.5 D-Reb%), he must do a better job of boxing out and securing the board. Defensive rebounding is a task that’s especially pressing for Muscala tonight, given Millsap’s and Sefolosha’s varied defensive efforts to keep the Bucks outside the paint (49.3 PPG in the paint, 2nd in NBA).

    Just like there’s no 20-point shot that at once erases a double-digit lead, there’s no 3-game victory that instantly vaults Atlanta back into contention in the East. It takes a trend to make yourselves trendy, and these Hawks are charged with getting their confidence back on track. There’s no better place to do that than on the road, where the Hawks have struggled mightily in recent weeks. It’s time to Buck the trend!

    Let’s Go Hawks!

    ~lw3

    lethalweapon3
    MOOD.

     
    So, we’ve finally reached the floor, right? Right?

    All the signs are there that a bounce is in the cards for the Atlanta Hawks, as the Miami heat pay a visit to the Flickering Light Factory (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Fox Sports Sun in MIA). A little home cooking and practice, a tweak to the starting lineup, some recuperation time for the forwards. And an opponent that’s 7-14 and struggling to string complete nights together with an incomplete roster, arriving in town after a 114-103 loss to New York last night.

    I’ve already misspelled the heat’s hometown. Right now, it’s M*I*A*M*I. Goran Dragic strained a shoulder last night, shortly after healing his swollen ankle, and will try to give it a go after pacing the heat with 29 points (11-for-17 FGs). Dion Waiters got a tear in an unmentionable, barely-spellable area and is out of action. Josh Richardson is a no-go due to a sprained ankle, and Justise Winslow hasn’t played in nearly a month as he deals with a sprained wrist.

    James Johnson? Rotator cuff strain. Luke Babbitt? Hip flexor. Wayne Ellington just returned after sitting out the start of the season with a quad contusion, Derrick Williams just getting back up to speed last night after missing time with back spasms. There’s not even time to waste mentioning Chris Bosh anymore. I’m halfway expecting Radar, Hot Lips Houlihan, and Klinger in a muumuu to accompany coach Erik Spoelstra and the heat tonight.

    The Hawks (10-12), hoping to plug their seven-game losing streak, know that no one in the stands is suffering a case of fan-nesia. Or, at least, that’s what they should know.

    M*I*A*M*I last came to Philips Arena in February without top-scorer Dwayne Wade (knee), fellow All-Star Bosh (calf), or mega-rebounder Hassan Whiteside (suspended). Yet the Hawks, coming off the All-Star Break, allowed for The Josh McRoberts Variety Hour to air. McBob’s 19 points and 10 assists off the bench (plus Luol Deng’s 30 points) propelled the heat to an 115-111 victory. Atlantans know the heat could put Burnie in the lineup, and an inexcusable L for the Hawks could still not be ruled out.

    With so many walking wounded, who does Spoelstra turn to in a pinch this time? “He’s got better rookie Win Shares than Malcolm Delaney… MCGRUDER!” The undrafted K-State product in his first NBA season has been pushed front-and-center into the M*I*A*M*I starting lineup. Last season, Rodney helped lead their Sioux Falls affiliate to the D-League title.

    Currently on a nine-game Threak, McGruder is working in tandem with Ellington (and bench man Tyler Johnson) in hopes of spacing the floor for Dragic drives and Whiteside post maneuvers. They’ll be met tonight by Atlanta’s newly-formulated starting pair at the wing.

    Thabo Sefolosha filled in capably at small forward in place of Kyle Korver, who seemed to find some footing off the bench during the latest loss to OKC. Thabo will slide to small forward, and will be joined tonight by Tim Hardaway, Jr., who takes over at shooting guard while Kent Bazemore sits out a couple games to be treated for a sore knee.

    Timmy had 15 bench points, including 5-for-6 2FGs, in the Hawks’ 93-90 win at South Beach on November 15, back when things were going pretty good for his ballclub. He and Thabo combined for 5 of Atlanta’s 14 steals in that game, a tally the Hawks haven’t surpassed since (13 steals at OKC being the high-water mark lately).

    While the “TNT” duo has benefitted by being part of far more efficient bench rotations, Hardaway-Sefolosha has netted the Hawks +6.2 points per 100 possessions (as per Basketball-Reference). Throw in Paul Millsap (probable, while continuing to nurse a sore hip), and the trio leads the Hawks with +19.6 net points per-100.

    Today’s matchup of strategies will feature Hack-a-Hawk versus Hack-a-heat. M*I*A*M*I comes into this game as the league’s worst free throw shooting team (66.5 FT%), and the only other NBA squad clanking more than thirty percent of their shots are their hosts tonight, Atlanta shooting 69.9 FT%.

    After allowing the Knicks to pile up 56 points in the paint last night, versus their own 36, the heat will have little appetite for Millsap (4 missed FTs in Monday’s loss to OKC; 73.2 FT%, lowest in past three seasons) and Dwight Howard (career-low 48.3 FT%) getting easy buckets.

    Coach Spo will rotate in Udonis Haslem, Willie Reed and Williams (4 personals in 15 minutes vs. NYK), to help keep McRoberts (9 rebounds and 5 assists vs. NYK) and Whiteside (NBA-high 14.9 RPG; career-high 25 rebounds vs. ATL on Nov. 15; 23 points, 14 rebounds, 3 blocks vs. NYK) out of early foul trouble. M*I*A*M*I hopes the extra whistles will help slow down Mike Budenholzer’s preferred pace (101.5 possessions per-48, 6th in NBA; 102.7 before Nov. 18, 100.3 since) to one that’s more to their weathered 10-man rotation’s liking.

    The heat has once again called upon a shot doctor to help fix their free throw woes. Rob “The Shooting Guy” Fodor has long been in South Florida helping players with their busted shot mechanics, including the father of Hardaway (63.0 FT%, down from 89.3% last season), who starts tonight and could use a little tutelage as well.

    Fodor’s advice didn’t pay off at home for the heat against the Knicks (11 missed FTs in the 11-point loss; Whiteside 3-for-9). But Spoelstra is confident his team can turn it around, particularly in away games, where they have managed to shoot just a little better (67.8 road FT%).

    Dennis Schröder got a front-row view of a maestro in action on Monday, Russell Westbrook’s floor leadership on full-court display especially in crunch time. Still learning on-the-fly, Schröder (last 3 outings: 16.3 PPG, 46.5 FG%, 87.5 FT%, 8.3 APG, 1.3 TOs per game) has the benefit of scouting the league’s starting lead guards and picking up traits that could help his game as well. That includes the more experienced guards of the Southeast Division, like Dragic, who is about as good as can be when it comes to finishing in the paint.

    It’s easy to see why Schröder struggles at times to finish on drives to the hoop; Howard’s man is usually in the vicinity, rather than chasing pick-and-poppers outside the paint. Dennis makes 49.7% of his attempts within 10 feet of the hoop, with a much-higher proportion of attempts coming beyond 3 feet from the rim than in 2015-16. But the challenge is often the same for the point guard who plays alongside Whiteside. And yet Dragic continues to excel.

    Goran is a taller, sturdier guard, and while he has struggled mightily at times with two-point jumpers outside the paint, he remains surehanded when he gets inside. While his 57.4 at-rim FG% is the lowest since his rookie season, The Dragon still breathes fire within ten feet of the hoop (53.1 2FG%). Coupled with a career-best 42.1 3FG%, Dragic remains a reliable offensive asset whenever he calls his own number. He’s balancing his best scoring values (17.8 PPG) since his All-NBA 3rd Team and Most Improved Player campaign in 2013-14, with his best assist numbers (6.7 APG, 10th in NBA) since 2012-13.

    Schröder could find better looks around the rim tonight if he uses his speed to force the issue on the break. Dennis’ 1.4 PPG on fastbreaks is bottom-third among starting guards, and probably not where Budenholzer needs him to be considering the tempo the coach prefers. But Dennis has had to work with an assortment of starting lineup mates lumbering and laboring with lingering leg issues.

    With Hardaway and Sefolosha running the wings (and Korver waiting-in-the wings off the bench), Schröder’s enhanced activity in transition could be one spark Atlanta’s offense needs (NBA-low 92.3 O-Rating in last 20 days; Dallas and Philly rating 97.5; NBA-low 49.4 TS% since Nov. 18) to shake out of its doldrums.

    The Hawks should know better than to look down on its opponents, not the least of which because there are many fewer teams in the standings to look down upon. After climbing the Wall last night, Orlando has caught up with Atlanta at 10-12 (no matter the sport, we just can’t shake free of these Central Florida teams). Now, the heat have a chance to shrink their gap with the Hawks down to just 1.5 games.

    Despite their current record and their myriad injuries, M*I*A*M*I went 2-2 and 2-1 in road trips over the past three weeks, including a squeaker in Utah last Thursday. They would like to get this trek off to a roaring start before playing in a back-to-back at Cleveland and Chicago over the weekend.

    But a rested, refocused, resolute Hawks team won’t give their division-foe visitors the satisfaction this evening. Right? Right?


     
    Honor our past and present service members on this Pearl Harbor Remembrance Day! And Let’s Go Hawks!

    ~lw3

    lethalweapon3
    “THESE cats were 9-2?”

    Which creature has one voice, and yet, becomes four-footed in the morning, then two-footed at noon, then three-footed by the evening?

    Per ancient myth, for centuries, untold numbers of Greek visitors were flummoxed, stumped – and then, promptly devoured – by the mighty Sphinx, for failing to come up with a correct answer to the above question. Alas, the responses to the world’s most perplexing riddles often prove amazingly simple. Oedipus eventually solved the riddle, and the once-formidable Sphinx responded by devouring itself.

    In modern times, that’s what it looks like we’re witnessing with the offense of Mike Budenholzer’s Atlanta Hawks, a stunned Sphinx eating itself alive. To be fair, though, there’s no evidence the latest visitor -- Russell Westbrook, star of the Oklahoma City Thunder (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Fox Sports Oklahoma) -- suffers from any sort of Oedipal complex.

    The Greek hero Westbrook takes after is more likely to be Narcissus, and the resulting behavior – authoritativeness, superiority, self-admiration, exploitation – is producing far better results on the current-day NBA floor than whatever these furballs are that Atlanta has coughed up over the past several weeks.

    Lil’ Rage leads a furious, and almost single-minded, attack for the Thunder (13-8, winners of five straight), the current NBA leader in minutes played, points scored (31.0 PPG, 2nd in NBA), field goals shot, free throws shot, and assists dished out (11.3 APG, 2nd in NBA). Plus, at a ridiculous 10.8 RPG (9th in NBA), this 6-foot-3-inch point guard can literally initiate his own offense from the defensive end of the floor.

    “Just grabbing the ball before the other team does,” Westbrook explained (narcissistically!) after snagging 17 boards (16 defensive) last night, to go along with 28 points and a dozen assists, along the way to a 101-92 victory over Anthony Davis’ visiting Pelicans. Westbrook’s feat is enough to make Davis’ output of 37-and-15 look small by comparison. “(Davis) can’t just beat us by himself,” said Thunder big man Enes Kanter postgame, “That’s what a really special player does, look at Russell. Getting his stats, but making everybody else better.”

    Westbrook’s usage percentage, 41.0%, would blow away not only his career-mark of 38.4% (2014-15 season), but also the King of Go-It-Alone basketball, Kobe Bryant’s 38.6% during the 2005-06 season. Despite the Lakers offense resembling more of a data point than a Triangle under the auspices of Phil Jackson (your third-leading scorer? Smush Parker!), Kobe carried the team to a 45-37 record and a 7-seed. Naturally, when it comes to playoff possibilities, and beyond, Westbrook and head coach Billy Donovan have to be thinking, “Why Not OKC?”

    Combine Westbrook’s take-charge attitude with the current state of collective catatonia from the Hawks, and the possible absence of OKC center Steven Adams (sprained ankle last night), and fans at the Dimlight Factory have a good chance at witnessing the NBA’s first-ever Triple Twenty Game, nevermind a sixth consecutive Triple Double.

    Since 1983, the closest any NBA Monstar has came to a 20-20-20 feat (for points-rebounds-assists) was when Earvin Johnson put up a Magical line of 24-17-17 in an April 1989 win over the Nuggets. Shaq tore down the Nets with 28 points, 24 rebounds and 15 swats in November 1993.

    In his last visit to Philips Arena, in November 2015, Westbrook had team-highs of 34 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists – this on a team that featured co-stars Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. But the Hawks, with former Thunder mate Thabo Sefolosha starting ahead of Kent Bazemore (fancy that!) prevailed, 106-100. Well, so much for sharing!

    Budenholzer’s current crew of Argonauts appear doomed in their long quest to nab the Golden Fleece, and their ship seems perilously close to sinking prematurely. The Hawks (10-11, 1-9 in last ten games) have been blown out by almost epic proportions in recent losses, and may have to sail headlong into tonight’s contest once again without Commodore Paul Millsap (hip) around to steer.

    An era that once valued the ideals of everyone contributing, sharing, and placing an emphasis on team defense, seems to have given way, and probably at the worst conceivable time for a Hawks team that has long been satisfied with building a constellation instead of relying on one particular supernova.

    Although Adams (69.0 FG% in last 4 games) snapping out of an early funk has much to do with OKC’s recent turnaround, they can turn to Westbrook when the going gets tough and expect him, granted enough time, to sort things out. The Hawks know they have no Westbrook, Durant, no LeBron, no Harden, no Curry, no DeRozan, no Isaiah, no Lillard, no Wall, no Kawhi, no Kemba, no Blake, no Melo, no Davis to turn to on their roster when adversity strikes. There’s not even a reliable Lou or a Jamal off the bench to change things up on the offensive end.

    For the past several seasons, that fact proved to be, more often than not, a competitive advantage for the Hawks. Uncertain which Atlanta player was going to have a big game? How could you, as an opponent, figure it out, when the Hawks weren’t sure themselves? You, as a fan, need somewhere around 45 wins, with an occasional playoff series win, and an All-Star or two thrown into the bag? Why pay such big prices, when Atlanta can get it for you wholesale?

    Sadly, Budenholzer’s Riddle seems to have been solved by opposing NBA coaches. Pack the paint, and dare the Hawks to try anything other than bricks and dead-end drives. Beat the weathered-down, over-30 starters down the floor in transition, before they can figure out whether they’re coming or going.

    Confound Atlanta’s open catch-and-shooters by out-pointing them with your iso-oriented, double-teamed stars and subs. And then sit back and watch the Hawks consume themselves, shifting outside of their element into iso-oriented drives, thoughtless passes, and aimless spot-ups, in desperate and futile attempts to match the things your team already does well. The Hawks talk a good game in the locker room about steering the ship around together. But when the inevitable mouth-punch arrives, players on the floor start looking inward for answers.

    Rome was not built in a day, and it’s going to take a lot more than one evening for the Hawks to turn their fortunes around. But tonight’s as good a place to start as any. An overriding objective is to have Westbrook push toward a 20-spot in two other categories – turnovers (where the Hawks must punish the Thunder in transition, not the other way around), and personal fouls.

    Over the course of his career, OKC is 31-41 (18-27 on the road) in games where Russ logged at least 6 turnovers and 3 personals. The Thunder is making do without second-string guard Cameron Payne (foot), as Donovan turns to rookie Semaj Christon (5 assists, 1 TO vs, NOP yesterday) and Victor Oladipo more often than he’d like when Westbrook needs a rare breather.

    For all intents and purposes, Dennis Schröder (21.8 PPG, 52.9 FG%, 8.0 APG in last four games; two TOs in last 50 minutes of play) is officially the Jason of Atlanta’s Argo. He must put Westbrook to work on the defensive end, and beat him down the floor in transition for simple scores. Quick enough to go under screens and still thwart drives, Dennis must guide Westbrook away from the middle of the floor and toward help defenders, where the Thunder guard will be more inclined to give up the rock.

    Westbrook’s tantalizing ballhandling skills cause many an opponent to get caught ball-watching, to the benefit of his Thunder teammates. Schröder’s floor mates must use active hands to cut off passing lanes to Oladipo (team-high 2.2 three-pointers per game, 39.5 3FG%), bench acquisition Jerami Grant (39.3 3FG% in OKC), and rookie sharpshooter Domantas Sabonis (46.0 3FG%), the latter having served his team just fine as a rookie starting stretch-4.

    If everyone is doing their jobs, there will be no need for the Hawks to allow Russ to pile up bonus points at the charity stripe. No more than two defenders need worry about contesting his shots, one if they’re beyond the three-point line (33.0 3FG%). Westbrook has accounted for 58 percent of his team’s free throw makes, shooting 84.0 FT% through eight road games. If anyone gets to the line for OKC, it should be his teammates (59.2 road FT% for OKC w/o Westbrook).

    Dwight Howard (1.2 post-up FGs per-game, lowest among 15 bigs getting four or more post-up possessions per game) must run the floor and work from post-to-post, dominating his matchup with the offensive-minded Enes Kanter (career-high 60.2 2FG%). Howard has not been credited with two or more assists since getting escorted out of the November 18 game Charlotte a bit early, the Hawks 4-1 in those games prior to his ejection.

    When getting touches, D8 must read the defense quickly; if a high-percentage post shot is not in the works, kick it out to Schröder and the Hawks’ wings, rather than sucking up precious shot clock time, risking more turnovers (19.1 TO% on post-ups, 2nd-highest among those 15 bigs) and drawing fruitless fouls (19.1 shooting foul% on post-ups, highest among those 15 bigs).

    If Howard, or any of the Hawks’ starters, are unnecessarily lethargic in running the floor, setting screens, getting open, deflecting passes, or closing out on shooters, Coach Bud must make a sub as soon as possible. There is no need to watch leads evaporate into thin air, or holes turn into caverns, in the opening quarters, just hoping the players’ rust will somehow wear off on the floor.

    That goes for tonight, and all games going forward for Atlanta. If the riddle has clearly been solved (“Man!” is the answer to the Sphinx riddle above), it’s on this coaching staff to drum up some new riddles, and to do it quickly, before their team devours itself.

    Let’s Go Hawks!

    ~lw3

    lethalweapon3
    “IT’S A RAP!”

     
    My whiny groveling about the unfairness of the Atlanta Hawks’ recent schedule is sure to come to an end soon. But not today! Atlanta returned home after a five-game-in-eight-days road swing, enjoyed one day “off”, then got pummeled by the Pistons last night, keeping their toothbrushes packed for a red-eye to Toronto in advance of today’s game against the Raptors (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL; Sportsnet ONE up yonder). They got tenderized at home by the Pelicans one night before starting that wretched road trip, too.

    Toronto, meanwhile, has hardly had to move a muscle since returning from Milwaukee on Black Friday. They got two days off before playing the Sixers, a day off before facing the kneecapped Grizzlies, and one more free day ahead of back-to-back games featuring the visiting Lakers and Hawks. Atlanta is the third contest of a six-game homestand in T-Dot. LeBron’s slip-sliding Cavaliers arrive two days from now, and the nice-try T-Wolves three days after that.

    A 1-4 dip turned around to a 5-0 surge for the Raptors (13-6). But fortuitous scheduling has just a little bit to do with that. More impactful has been an offense, led by scoring ace DeMar DeRozan (career-bests of 28.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG and 4.3 APG), that has set a flamethrower to the nets.

    How nice would it be to be ranked fourth in the league for 2FG%, third in the league for 3FG%, and second for FT%? On top of that, how nice it is to rarely turn the ball over (12.2 TOs per game, 2nd-lowest in NBA), the third-best team at taking care of the rock when adjusting for pace? The Raps have the second-best O-Rating in the NBA (113.0, a shade behind Golden State), an efficiency affording Dwane Casey, a typically defensive-minded coach, quite a few luxuries.

    For perhaps the first time, DeRozan has established himself as the clear 1-A superstar on the team, allowing point guard Kyle Lowry (20.6 PPG, 41.4 3FG%, 7.3 APG, 1.7 SPG) even more room to roam than in past seasons. With Lowry and Toronto-born backup Cory Joseph running the show, there’s no urgency for second-year guard Delon Wright to return from offseason shoulder surgery.

    Their biggest free agent signing, Jared Sullinger, also needs not rush to come back. Toronto has more than gotten by with rookie first-rounder Pascal Siakam in the starting power forward spot, and that should continue today as All-Star Paul Millsap (hip) recuperates back in Atlanta. Seventh-year vet Patrick Patterson (35.9 FG%) has had a horrendous start to the season offensively, but he has been fine with coming off the bench behind Siakam and generally staying the heck out of the way.

    Casey doesn’t have to overwork center Jonas Valanciunas (career-high 13.2 PPG and 9.6 RPG), and rookie Jakob Poeltl barely has to leave his seat. That’s because Casey’s finally making judicious use out of former Hawks project Bebe Nogueira (69.2 FG%; 1.8 BPG in just 18.5 minutes/game).

    Perhaps most importantly to Casey, he can choose which night of back-to-backs he can rest DeMarre Carroll, the Junk Yard Dog looking more like a Westminster finalist (15.3 PPG, 59.0 FG%, 47.8 3FG%, 1.3 SPG and 1.3 BPG in his last 4 games) in recent days since his last respite.

    How do the Raptors decide which game to play Carroll, like when choosing between the Lakers and the Hawks?  “I think it’s more how we’re going to guard, the best guy on the team, whoever the best player is,” Carroll suggested recently to The Athletic. “If we’re playing a team that’s a (more balanced) team, I’m more prone to sit out that game rather than if we’re playing a Kevin Durant or a LeBron or Paul George. I think that’s the biggest factor, I feel.”

    Well congratulations, Kent Bazemore, you’re considered higher up on the best-player rung than Luol Deng. Carroll was DNP’d in last night’s game against the Lakers, and Toronto didn’t need his help to drain the Lake Show with a resounding 113-80 win. Playoff hero Norman Powell had been used sparingly, but logged a season-high 32 minutes and contributed 16 points in Carroll’s absence. Now JYD ver. 2.0 will get a chance to sink his teeth into the Hawks. His 3.8 career PPG and 2.2 RPG against Atlanta (nine games, just two starts) are his lowest marks versus any team.

    Casey may disagree with Carroll’s assessment, or the notion that Carroll would like to get a healthy go at his previous NBA team (“I don’t care what the player wants to do. It is what is best for the Toronto Raptors to win.”), but DMC is accurate on one aspect. We’re certainly a less “balanced” team than the Lakers right now, in more ways than one.

    The Hawks’ offense continues rocketing toward the NBA basement, most recently in last night’s 121-85 abomination at the Lowlight Factory. Best demonstrated during the 2016 Playoffs versus Kevin Love and the Cavs, the Hawks have shown that their confidence and composure fall completely through the floor whenever they struggle to get former sharpshooter Kyle Korver (2-for-8 FGs, 0-for-3 3FGs) going while their opponents have no problems having a field day from the perimeter.

    Terrence Ross (42.6 3FG%) will try to help Lowry and Carroll go bombs away against the Hawks again, one night after Detroit posted a demoralizing franchise-record 17 treys (58.6 team 3FG%) on Atlanta, the Pistons’ opponents (6-for-24 3FGs) unable to provide much of a response.

    Last night’s game (re-)confirmed that things are likely to get worse for the Hawks (10-10) before they get better. But one sliver of good news for the Hawks is they’ve played well on the back end of back-to-backs this season, posting a 4-1 record (wins over HOU, CHI, MIL, at IND, loss at GSW) while outscoring opponents 106.0-98.8. That last home drubbing by New Orleans was followed by an 11-point road victory in Indiana. So it’s reasonable to expect, even while a little shorthanded, that the Hawks will cobble together a more competitive effort from the jump in Toronto.

    Without Millsap around, it’s essential for Dwight Howard to have much more than a casual observer role, as was the case yesterday (1-for-4 FGs, 6 rebounds, 5 personal fouls) against Andre Drummond and Detroit. Howard (1.1 APG and 6.0 Assist%, lowest since his rookie season 12 years ago) must be more active than sitting around the basket waiting for lobs and putbacks.

    Getting Dwight more touches and relying upon him to kick the ball back out of the paint when double-teamed should begin to thaw the Atlanta offense, force DeRozan and Lowry to expend more energy than they’d like on defense, and allow the Hawks to stay in contention for much more than one quarter tonight.

    Let’s Go Hawks!

    ~lw3

    lethalweapon3
    “… AND SEND ATLANTA THE INVOICE!”


     
    Welcome to the NBA Crab Barrel! Cleveland is well outside of it, and Toronto has figured its way to the top of the rim. But after that, it’s catch-as-catch-can among eight Eastern Conference competitors, including our floundering Atlanta Hawks and tonight’s visitors, the Detroit Pistons (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Fox Sports Detroit).

    A mere two games separate third-seeded Chicago from tenth-seeded Indiana. While the Hawks enjoyed some time above the fray, they now find themselves stuck in the middle with the Pistons (10-10), who hope to nab their third-straight victory at the close of their four-game road trip. How you get to 10-10, and where you’ve been in recent years, certainly colors your team’s outlook around the league.

    Aside from some brief maladies, excused absences and DNP-Rest days, the Hawks have been a reasonably healthy outfit, even more with the return of forward Mike Scott to the fold. All-Star Paul Millsap’s recent hip problem has been disconcerting, but his absence was not the reason Atlanta fell in Phoenix on Wednesday, to a Suns team that was without a vital cog as well.

    A team stocked with veterans and ample playoff experience, led by a former Coach of the Year that guided his franchise to the conference finals two seasons ago, will never be looked upon fondly for its descent to 10-9 after a decent 9-2 start.

    At the other end of the sideline, after many years of swings and misses, the Pistons rode a hot late-season wave to creep into the 2016 Playoffs, their first appearance in seven seasons. Much of that run was guided by the wild-shooting point guard Reggie Jackson, who has been out since the preseason to deal with knee and thumb injuries. Jackson hopes to return to the floor soon, but in the meantime, he’s been joined on the IR by another Reggie. Returning recently from injury himself, guard Reggie Bullock tore his meniscus just over a week ago, and will miss at least a couple months.

    Jackson’s absence left coach Stan Van Gundy to turn more of the Pistons’ offense over to a lot of young and under-experienced players, including Tobias Harris and Georgia native Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (career-highs of 14.9 PPG, 3.0 APG, 38.1 3FG% and 82.5 FT%). The old-heads in the staring unit include 27-year-old Marcus Morris and 28-year-old Ish Smith (6.1 APG, 1.5 TOs/game), the latter holding the fort until Jackson returns, the former biding time until Stanley Johnson finds his bearings. Andre Drummond (13.2 RPG, 3.6 offensive) capably cleans up the offensive glass while helping make stops in the paint (1.6 SPG, 1.1 BPG).

    So even though they’re on pace for a worse finish than the 44-38 recorded last season, and even though they’re doling out the 3rd-highest payroll in the league (thanks to a certain somebody in China; second only to the Cavs in the East), Detroit is perceived as overachieving, and 10-10 looks like a masterstroke of genius for Van Gundy. Blowing out the Hornets (112-89, despite Drummond’s first-half ejection for an elbow; 39.7 opponent shooting) in Charlotte on Tuesday, then running circles around Al Horford’s Celtics in Boston (121-114; 8 offensive rebounds for Drummond) one night later, flavors the soup quite nicely.

    Critical to their “success”, SVG isn’t forcing players to do more than they’re capable of doing. Heady play by backup bigs Aron Baynes and Jon Leuer (career-high 6.8 RPG, 2nd on team) allows Drummond adequate rest and keeps him out of foul trouble. They leave it almost exclusively to the point guards to execute catch-and-shoot plays; the assist-turnover ratios of Smith (4.1, 2nd in NBA) and Beni Udrih (3.9) are stellar, and the team’s turnover rate of 11.9 per 100 possessions is the second-best in the league.

    Most notably, hardly anyone aside from KCP and Harris (35.3 3FG%) can hit shots from outside, so the team isn’t directed to take many of those shots (22.8% 3-point attempt rate, lowest in NBA). Detroit shoots threes with the exact same inaccuracy (33.3 3FG%) as the Hawks. But while Atlanta jacks up 26.1 tries per game, the Pistons shift those shots (19.8 3FGAs per game) to the interior, where they’re far more capable of scoring (NBA-high 67.2 2FGAs and 32.6 2FGs).

    The Pistons score a little less from night to night, by result. But, with decent perimeter D (34.5 opponent 3FG%), superior boxouts (NBA-best 10.9 opponent 2nd-chance PPG; Atlanta’s 14.1 opponent PPG ranks 22nd) and far superior transition D (NBA-best 11.8 opponent PPG off turnovers; Atlanta’s 20.3 opponent PPG is next-to-worst), combined with a slower pace (25th in NBA), Detroit gives up a lot fewer points as well. While Atlanta remains the most defensively efficient team in the league on a per-possession basis, Detroit gives up just 97.5 PPG, 2nd-lowest in the NBA, with an efficiency that ranks 4th-best.

    Atlanta’s challenge tonight is to find ways to coax Piston players out of their comfort zones. The offense-defense bench combo of Tim Hardaway, Jr. (21 points, 7-for-10 2FGs @ PHX; now tied with Dwight Howard at 61.9 2FG%) and Thabo Sefolosha (team-high 2.2 SPG; 4.9 RPG, 3rd on team; 5 steals and 8 boards @ PHX) should be up to that task.

    Junior, whose pops assists Van Gundy in Detroit, must continue working on his on-ball defense and perimeter shooting while resuscitating his free throw accuracy. The more he rounds out his fullcourt game, the more pressure gets placed on Mike Budenholzer to revisit his unyielding affection for the Bazemorver pair starting at the wing.

    When the Pistons shoo Hawk shooters off the 3-point line, Dennis Schröder and Malcolm Delaney need teammates (aside from Howard) able to catch-and-finish in and around the paint, and Hardaway seems to be a good candidate to fill the bill. The Delaney+Hardaway coupling has given the Hawks a net +15.3 points per 100 possessions, best among any Atlanta 2-Man combo with over 200 minutes together (as per Basketball-Reference). The scoring advantage is followed by Millsap+Sefolosha (+14.0) and Millsap+Hardaway (+11.7).

    Cutting down the giveaways is paramount, Atlanta’s 15 first-half TOs having put them in an unnecessary hole in Phoenix. But just as troubling are all the transition buckets they’re ceding to opponents. Kent Bazemore is not getting back as effectively as he has in seasons’ past, and Millsap’s mobility has been slowed by injury.

    When Schröder gets schloppy and Dwight is hovering around his opponent’s basket, or when Dwight gets sloppy himself, the opposite end has been a virtual layup line for opponents, with just Dennis and Kyle Korver (3 points @ PHX) on their heels in retreat. Hawks opponents are emboldened to push the ball downcourt quickly, and have been granted 13.7 fastbreak PPG (10th most in NBA).

    Among NBA players logging 400+ minutes so far, Howard (17.2) and Bazemore (17.1) give up the league’s most and second-most points per-36-minutes off turnovers, with Schröder (16.7, 5th) and Korver (15.9, 9th) not far behind, Millsap (17th) and Mike Muscala (23rd) being brought along for the ride. Relevant to this evening, Detroit’s Morris is the league’s second-most stingy in this regard (8.4), with KCP (8.6) and Ish (8.9) also nearby. If Bazemore continues to struggle with help defense in transition, Budenholzer should look not only to Sefolosha but rookie Taurean Prince to step it up on his behalf.

    The second-best team to Detroit in disallowing points off turnovers? Toronto, for whom the Hawks will leave after tonight’s game to face tomorrow. The league’s leading player in points off turnovers And fastbreak points? Russell Westbrook, whose Thunder will arrive here at Thrillips for a game on Monday. So it’s imperative that the Hawks show major improvements in TNT (transition ‘n turnovers), if they intend to keep this season from blowing up early.

    Let’s Go Hawks!

    ~lw3

    lethalweapon3

    Hawks at Suns

    By lethalweapon3, in Game Previews,

    “CAN'T I JUST STAY HERE… SPEND THE REST OF MY DAYS HERE???…”

     
    The Atlanta Hawks continue to traverse the West Coast, thirsting for their second win on its five-game road swing. They arrive at their final destination on this particular tour tonight, the Talking Stick Resort Arena, where the Phoenix Suns await patiently (9:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Fox Sports Arizona in PHX). The Suns have dropped three straight at home and are without a key cog at forward. But is the prospect of victory just another mirage on the horizon for these Hawks?

    Two nights after a loss at Sacramento, the 2014-15 Hawks (absent Paul Millsap) arrived in Phoenix on a January night hoping to catch a similar break. What they experienced instead were a combined 39 rebounds from Suns bigs Tyson Chandler and Alex Len, subpar shooting from several Hawk starters and, despite the best efforts of role players like Kent Bazemore, Dennis Schröder and Mike Scott, a 24-foot prayer by Archie Goodwin that would not go unanswered. The bucket granted Goodwin his game-high 24th point and the 13-31 Suns a 98-95 overtime victory, what would be their only NBA win over a drought of 50 calendar days.

    Despite enjoying what was possibly the game of his life, Goodwin would find himself sent out to pasture in the ensuing preseason, not the least of which because of the continual logjam that has been the Phoenix backcourt. Eric Bledsoe (19.2 PPG, career-high 35 points vs. DEN on Sunday; team-high 5.4 APG) has bounced fully back from the torn-meniscus surgery that cut his season short last December.

    Bled’s had a minimum of 15 points, 5 dimes, and 5 boards in five straight games, the longest streak by a Sun since Jason Kidd went for six-straight back in 2000. Bledsoe is backed at the point by Brandon Knight (18.3 points per-36, 37.5 FG%), who rarely sees a shot that he doesn’t like, and Summer League standout Tyler Ulis (4.4 steals per-36).

    At the time of the Hawks’ last visit, a teenaged Devin Booker was just coming into his own. Now the 20-year-old serves as Phoenix’s fresh franchise face and leading scorer (19.5 PPG), joining Bledsoe in the Suns’ starting backcourt.

    Booker seeks to put up 30+ points in consecutive games for the second time this season. Behind him on the depth chart is former Golden State Warrior Leandro Barbosa, who never met a shot that -- well, you know -- and former Hawk John Jenkins. The Brazilian Blur will play with a heavy heart after being especially moved by the soccer club tragedy from Tuesday morning.

    Perhaps the most improved player for the Suns (5-13) has been T.J. Warren. The third-year forward was averaging 20.0 PPG and 2.1 SPG over his first 11 starts. But in his next two games, something appeared amiss, and he has been declared out indefinitely to treat an unspecified head injury. His absence has put more pressure on Chandler (12.0 RPG, most in his career since 2006-07), Len (10.0 RPG, 2.7 BPG in last six games), and a Suns team that hasn’t defended driving guards like Schröder (season-high 9 2FGs @ GSW on Monday) terribly well.

    Suns coach Earl Watson’s club has allowed over 110 points in 11 of their 17 games, and their two wins among that set of games required overtime. Sunday’s 120-114 home loss to the Nuggets featured Denver’s Jameer Nelson rolling back the clock for 21 points on 8-for-13 shooting. They also had Nik Stauskas looking saucy (8-for-9 FGs off the bench) in a 120-105 road loss at Embiidelphia two weeks ago. Still, much like Mike Budenholzer with Schröder, Watson refuses to heap criticism upon his emerging young guard.

    “I’m kind of disappointed that expectations on Devin Booker [are] ... what he [doesn’t] do. Very disappointed,” the coach, himself a neophyte amongst his peers, recently remarked to the Arizona Republic, “I was with Kevin Durant when he had the worst plus-minus in the NBA. Not one time in OKC did we say what he couldn’t do. So I’m not even going to focus on the things he can’t do. For just turning 20, he does some amazing things. We know that we can’t ever speed up development in life, from a physical aspect or a mental aspect. So I’m not discussing anything negative about Devin Booker or challenges.”

    While there’s very little pressure placed upon the youngsters in Phoenix to excel right away, the vets (plus Phoenix GM Ryan McDonough) are feeling a bit like Richard Pryor’s First Man on the Sun right now. Anybody and everybody above the age of 24 is ripe for the taking, especially as the losses pile up, and Watson’s charges are unrelenting, pushing a league-high pace (104.3 possessions per-48) and making it more of a struggle for players with a lot of mileage to keep up.

    Warren’s injury has expanded hope from fans that the Suns will be compelled to go on a Bender soon. P.J. Tucker (only NBA player aside from Paul Millsap with 500+ rebounds and 100+ steals in each of past three seasons) stepped up in a starting role versus Denver (21 points, 8 rebounds on Sunday), but otherwise has continued to regress since becoming somewhat of a late bloomer in 2014.

    Jared Dudley (41.4 3FG%; only player aside from Steph Curry and Kyle Korver with 38+ 3FG% in seven of last eight seasons) has been Phoenix’s most consistent perimeter threat, but has been slowed by persistent foot problems and sat out the Suns’ last game. Rookie power forward Marquese Chriss (43.0 FG%) has generally seemed lost since being moved into the starting lineup early in the season.

    That leaves some hope among many that Watson will unveil Chriss’ fellow lottery rookie, Dragan Bender. The 7-foot-1 Croatian has seen limited action (10.1 minutes per game, 13th among 14 active Suns players), but the 19-year-old has shown Porzingis-style range (38.1 3FG%). With or without Bender, the Suns will try their hand at expanding the perimeter offense against Atlanta tonight. Their 11 3FGs versus Denver was a season-high, but so were the 13 treys that Denver hit against them.

    I keep waiting for the Hawks to slide in terms of their defensive efficiency. And yet, for all their losing and blowouts suffered lately, here they remain atop the NBA with a 97.5 D-Rating. This, despite opponents scoring a league-high 19.7 points per-100 possessions off Atlanta’s turnovers. Foes have hit less than a third (33.0%) of their 3-point tries, and less than half of their two-point shots as well (48.0 2FG%), while defensive rebounding for the Hawks remains above-average.

    Defensive attributes have not significantly shifted during Atlanta’s 1-6 skid. Since November 18, preceding the Hawks’ loss in Charlotte, opponent shooting has been on just a minor uptick (34.7 3FG%). Opponents have generally been pushed out of the paint, encouraged to jack up a high volume of long heaves (2nd-most opponent above-the-break 3FGAs since Nov. 18; just 34.2 3FG%) and mid-range jumpers (3rd-most mid-range 2FGAs since Nov. 18; a modest 43.4 2FG%).

    These figures are not nearly as dominant as they were prior to the downturn, but they’re good enough to keep a moderately decent offense in games. The Hawks’ struggle has been demonstrating that they’re at least one of those offenses.

    Schröder and Atlanta’s wing scorers should experience limited defensive halfcourt pressure whenever Booker or Knight are in the game, and should also be able to open things up for the Hawks on the break. Only Philly (18.4) and the Lakers (16.6) surrender more fastbreak points per-100 possessions than the Suns’ 16.3, although Phoenix is likely to return the favor in kind (16.8 fastbreak points per-100, 3rd in NBA; Atlanta’s 11.9 ranks 19th). Whichever team’s big men can get the ball out to their guards in transition more effectively will have an upper hand early on in tonight’s game.

    Ever seen a Moose fly? Among 71 NBA centers tracked by SportVU (min. 10 games played), only Brooklyn’s Justin Hamilton (4.6 mph) has moved further along on NBA courts in less time than Atlanta’s Mike Muscala, a blistering pace of 4.5 miles per hour. Right behind Muscala on the “speed” list is Timofey Mozgov (4.45 mph), so Usain Bolt need not quiver. But the relative “speed” measure reflects the scale of activity Muscala brings to the table, coming out of the post to set screens, take open jumpers, and close out on shooters while also willfully running the full floor in transition. That “speed” advantage could prove especially useful this evening.

    The spell of rest and scouting disadvantages for the Hawks (10-8) comes to a momentary end tonight, the Suns getting two full days off to prep for this matchup. They got to sit back on Monday night and watch the Hawks run themselves ragged in Oakland before falling short in the closing minutes to the Warriors. Millsap (hip) is questionable to play, as is the upgraded Scott (knee), suggesting Muscala may be a busy man tonight, perhaps logging minutes alongside Dwight Howard.

    Going back to Milwaukee’s three days of rest before playing a Hawks team returning from a battle in Miami the night before, Atlanta’s last nine opponents (including Phoenix tonight) have had a total of 15 full days off prior to Hawks games, while the Hawks have had just six days off in between those games. Atlanta doesn’t get to enjoy a rest advantage until getting one day off before facing Russ Westbrook’s Thunder at home next week.

    For Atlanta, the ability to create adjustments on-the-fly and apply them through practices (one cut short by a shattered backboard) and video reviews have been tough tasks lately. A victory tonight may help the Hawks to build some positive momentum as they head home. But if they fall apart in Phoenix, two nights after giving Golden State a run for their money? They might as well be walkin’ on the sun.


     
    Let’s Go Hawks!

    ~lw3

    lethalweapon3
    “How Ya Like Me Now?”

    Gird your loins! One night after getting molly-whopped by a random NBA foe for the third time in the past four games, the Atlanta Hawks pick their beaks up off the floor to find the Golden State Warriors (10:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, CSN Bay Area in SFO) awaiting their arrival. Tonight, Atlanta is confronting the most talented, most exciting, most formidable basketball player known to mankind.

    We’re talking, of course, about Zaza Pachulia.

    Sure, we could spend time waxing poetic about the possibility that Draymond Green (team-highs of 9.0 RPG, 6.9 APG, 2.2 SPG, 1.6 BPG) may not be available to play, having twisted the ankle on his non-kicking leg while trying to avoid teammate Ian Clark’s Adam’s apple under the rim last Friday night at the Staples Center.

    After all, but for Green’s late-game heroics, the Hawks might have pulled off an upset over the Curry-less Warriors last season at Oracle Arena. Both Clark and Green sat out on Saturday, but the Dubs still held Minnesota at bay, 115-102, for their 11th straight victory. The only L in their past 15 games came against the same foes that vanquished Atlanta last night -- the Lakers, back on November 4 -- and they’ve beaten L.A. twice since.

    Green feels “pretty confident” he’ll suit up and play today. But there is no need to dwell on who is suiting up at forward for the Hawks’ opponent-du-jour, especially given the past two games have seen Atlanta (10-7) fall flat against a Utah team that was missing Derrick Favors, and a Lakers team that was absent Julius Randle.

    All-Star and leading scorer Paul Millsap’s inability to exploit mismatches versus inferior competition, whether by his own lethargic shortcomings (4-for-11 FGs and 5 rebounds in each of his past two games) or his teammates’ inability to keep the ball moving in his direction, has fueled the Hawks’ offensive swoon.

    You can toss in the early departure of Anthony Davis in last week’s flop versus the Pelicans for good measure, Millsap just 4-for-9 on field goals in 23 ineffective and short-leashed minutes. Atlanta is 9-0 when Paul posts a positive plus-minus. You can either feed the Anchorman, and reap the benefits of his production early and often, or just sit back and accept that the Hawks’ ship be sinking.

    We could focus on the Warriors’ impressive on-court efficiencies, ranked 1st in the NBA for offensive rating, field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, assist/turnover ratio, and assist percentage (franchise-record streak of 30+ assists ended vs. MIN on Saturday; franchise-record 47 assists vs. LAL last Wednesday), plus 2nd over the past week in defensive rating after experiencing some struggles out of the gate.

    A low-cost free agent acquisition, Pachulia swapping starting lineups with Andrew Bogut has contributed to Golden State ranking near the league’s basement (tied-27th) in D-Reb%, a factor the increasingly trolled Dwight Howard could use to his advantage if he’s got the energy to run the full floor.

    Alas, after making the Lakers (28th in D-Rating) look like defensive juggernauts in both the second and fourth quarters of play yesterday, and after allowing the low-scoring Jazz to look like the ’82 Nuggets in those same quarters, any further detail would be a waste of time.

    Over-reliant on Howard’s ability to protect the rim, the Hawks have relaxed on opposing ball handlers. Atlanta collected at least ten steals in each of their first six games, and in eight of their first ten contests. They’ve had just one double-digit tally in the last seven games, the exception being 11 steals in the win at Indiana. After failing to force double-digit turnovers in just six games in 2015-16, this season’s Hawks are already halfway there before the close of November, this following blowout losses to New Orleans and the Lakers (9 opposing-player TOs apiece).

    Worries about Stephen Curry swishing highlight-reel jumpers from Sausalito are pointless if Atlanta remains passive, failing to contest shots, drives, catches and passes from the perimeter. Kyle Korver looks like he could use a road map once he’s screened out of an opponent’s offensive play, while Kent Bazemore finds himself getting mouse-in-the-housed too often in isolation.

    That spells trouble when the Warriors space the floor out for Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant, the latter the reigning Western Conference Player of the Week. The lack of quarterbacking from Dwight Howard and Dennis Schröder must be rectified for the Hawks’ starting unit to fix their defensive flaws.

    The Warriors (15-2) already look like the world-beaters they were designed to be. But Atlanta’s greatest challenge on the floor won’t be named Steph, or Kevin, or Kevon (Looney) or Klay, or Zaza. As of this moment, the Hawks’ greatest impediments to success are in their own heads.

    Some trepidation in the face of adversity can be expected from a roster with under-experienced components playing key roles, as is the case for Atlanta at the point. But it’s unacceptable as a lasting hallmark for an NBA team featuring three over-30 starters with significant playoff experience, under the direction of a lauded coach that should know by now how to make adjustments that stop opponent runs and keep games under control. Beating the Warriors tonight is secondary to a larger objective: the Hawks have to quit beating themselves.

    Let’s Go Hawks!

    ~lw3

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