bleachkit

In countless non-western countries there has been no measures taken of any kind, or very limited ones. Viral type flu like illnesses spread everywhere and quickly. On average there are 1,000,000,000 people who get the flu globally. If those models, which I find highly questionable, are correct, a huge swath of third world nations, especially with their limited resources, would be having tremendous increases in hospitalizations and deaths. That flat out is not happening. The models were using an inaccurate/inflated fatality rate. That's why the numbers are wrong. I am going to keep beating that drum, because it's true.

I never said the numbers would be the same. I said they wouldn't be 10x, 20 or 30x like you claim. What do you think the fatality rate of Covid-19 will be when all the data is compiled?

Well that's one model. Current data suggests those theoretical nembers are grossly inflated. Here's the fly in the ointment. Why aren't nations not practicing social distancing seeing enormous increases in mortality if that model is correct? By and large they are not.

What I'm saying is it would not make a difference in 10x, 20x, 30x. Those are doomsday scenarios that already been shown to be erroneous. There are 40 to 50 thousand flu deaths per year. Flu has a FR of 0.1%. Right now we are on flu pace deaths with Covid-19. Meaning, according to your theory, if we had done nothing and had 10x, 20x, 30x more deaths, then that means Covid-19 would have a fatality rate of 1%, 2% or 3%. So our avatar bet would be determined by the fatality rate of Covid-19, determined by extrapolated data from serology tests. That's is how CDC gets their flu numbers.

Do you want to make an avatar bet on that? If you're theory is correct, that fatality rate would have to be a least 1%, 2%, or 3% respectively for your 10x, 20x ,30x projections to be accurate. Antibody tests will reveal the true fatality rate by late May, early June. Also, nations that are not practicing social distancing would be seeing enormous increases in mortality if your 10x, 20x, 30x theory is correct. They are not.

The main thing social distancing, shelter and stay, etc. does is prevent everyone from getting it at the same time. Which gives the healthcare system time to breath. Most hospitals in the nation are actually running well below capacity as many elective procedures were delayed. But New York City showed how quickly things can unravel if an outbreak spreads in a place with large numbers people in proximity. You only have so many beds, vents, etc. The hard truth is though, the primary reason for the limited numbers of deaths is that the virus is not as deadly as they thought. Data will surely confirm that.

At first, I was shouted down for questioning models that were clearly hyperbolic. Now the refrain is "well everyone knew the numbers were inflated" Well yes and no. If measures hadn't been taken it likely would have been worse because more people would have been sick at the same time, thus causing a strain on the health are system regarding a novel virus without an established treatment protocol. That could have been bad, and public officials have to play it safe without knowing much about the new virus. Nevertheless, as more and more data is coming in, it's abundantly clear that Covid-19 is not as lethal as originally thought, and the projection models were not accurate. Antibody tests, along with hospital data, will reveal what percent of the population had Covid-19 based on extrapolation. That's how flu numbers are determined by the CDC. Preliminary results are showing about 15% positive of those sampled on antibody tests. If that holds, most likely it will, extrapolated that's 50,000,000 million people. With a projected 50,000 deaths. 50,000 is 0.1% of 50,000,000. FR=0.1% Those are numbers comparably to the flu. It's a different virus, with a different course of illness. But the raw numbers are similar to the flu.

Witty retort.

Take the BPA. No clue who that is.

If Capela is still not back if we resume regular season games this summer, then something is seriously wrong.

For the record, I am supportive of the measures taken so as not to overwhelm the health care system. That being said, some of the dire predictions and sky high fatality rates will be shown to be erroneous.

Yea, no one wants to be the one that underestimated a coming pandemic, so they err to the worst case scenario, thus skewing the model. That's called confirmation bias.

I think the millions of deaths number is completely, utterly wrong. Data from nations that have not employed much social distancing will reveal that to be true. Would there be more deaths without social distancing and shelter and stay? Yes, but not in the order of millions, not even close. Antibody tests will finally give an accurate numerator for Covid-19, which compared to number of deaths will reveal the true fatality rate, and it's going to be a fairly low number, probably around 0.2%. The millions of deaths projection was flat out wrong. That would be like predicting the Hawks are going to win 75 games. Theoretically possible, but extremely unlikely.

I am referring to models used previously that alarmed the public, those prophesying millions of deaths. Of course updated models using the latest data will be close to accurate. It's a lot easier to bet on the winner when it gets closer to the end of the game.

By May, the damn will break. It's already breaking. The doomsday models were well off the mark. The hysteria and panic is waning. Fever is setting in, cabin fever that is. The NBA will be able to resume it's season. If I'm wrong about that, I give the board full licence to a change my avatar until Jan 1st 2021.

Still got time to end the year on a high note. Fingers crossed.

The antibody tests will show Covid-19 has already spread it's tentacles. A huge death wave at this point is unlikely.

Projections that not very good. I'm ok with the measures to help prevent the spread in the near term, mostly to buy some time for testing and equipment, etc. But the doomsday projections were wrong, they just were. Sweden is not doing any extreme shelter in place measures and they not doing any worse than the rest of Europe. Instead they are doing a vulnerability based quarantine that targets the elderly and the infirm, who compromise the lion's share of Covid-19 fatalities.

Here's my point. Why is it ok for public officials to state things that are clearly not going to be accurate? Any cursory look at how these type of viral infections spread will show that millions of people will get it. H1N1 infected 60,000,000 people in 2009. Covid-19 will probably be a similar number, maybe a bit lower due to to social distancing. Experts stating exaggerated fatalities rates like 3% is not okay. Using data that is highly skewed to make your case is not okay. Lies, damned lies and Covid -19 statistics.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection I'm looking forward to the results of this study. I have taken a lot criticism from all sorts of people for consistently stating from the beginning that the number of total Covid-19 cases were being grossly underestimated and the fatality rate grossly overestimated. That the so-called experts are right and that I am wrong. Well get ready to eat some crow. This study will reveal a huge swath of the population already has antibodies to Covid-19, and with finally having a reasonably accurate numerator in hand, the correct fatality rate will suddenly shrink to a minuscule decimal.

Your 10,000 Dow prediction is not aging to well.

This draft is light on shooting. Who do you like?

You won't be watching the NBA finals? Sure you won't.

NBA has the money and resources to get just about anything, if they are willing to live with the questionable optics.

His upside is not as high as some others, but Isaac Okoro would be be a nice fit. Great, versatile defender, and doesn't need the ball on offense. He's an alpha type competitive guy too, which we need more of quite frankly.