niremetal

Update on this. Since I posted this, Trae has been...still pretty bad in the 4th quarter (though less-bad than he was before, esp in creating for teammates). 2P% All 4th Quarter Before 1/15: 50.4% Since 1/15: 45.2% Total for season in 4th: 50.0% (vs 49.7% overall) Clutch Before Jan 15: 44.0% Since Jan 15: 40.0% Total for season in clutch: 42.8% (vs 49.7% overall) 3P% All 4th Quarter Before 1/15: 25.9% Since 1/15: 33.3% Total for season in 4th: 29.2% (vs 37.9% overall) Clutch Before Jan 15: 11.1% Since Jan 15: 28.6% Total for season in clutch: 18.8% (vs 37.9% overall) Ast/TO All 4th Quarter Before 1/15: 6.5 ast per 36 min | 4.7 TO per 36 min Since 1/15: 6.4 | 3.5 Total for season in 4th: 6.5 | 4.1 (vs 9.7 | 4.3 overall) Clutch Before Jan 15: 1.7 ast per 36 min | 7.6 TO per 36 min Since Jan 15: 6.0 | 2.3 Total for season in clutch: 3.9 | 5.0 (vs 9.7 | 4.3 overall) I was surprised by the low TOs since then, but bear in mind that over the past ~15 games, the number of minutes in clutch situations is so small that the per 36 min stats are highly sensitive to individual assists and turnovers. For example, the play where Trae lost the handle with 3 seconds on the shot clock and had to give it to Bogi for a contested desperation 3 went down as a missed shot for Bogi, although it was effectively a TO by Trae. If that had been a TO, Trae's per 36 min TO rate would have doubled to 4.6 (since he only had 1 other TO and just 3 asts in the clutch during that stretch). Bad shots and not looking for his teammates down the stretch continues to be the norm. He's maybe converting slightly better lately, but it's still game-killingly bad.

Too bad. Google gives a super-helpful definition right off the bat:

I voted Kevin because I'm still not sold on Bogi's knee holding up. I don't put much stock into playing with two weeks' rest when your opponent is the Kings on the second night of a road back-to-back. On paper, both guys are a great fit with the second unit--K'von gives them a second solid defender, while Bogi gives us a more rounded offensive option than anyone else out there. And honestly, not messing with the second unit's unreal chemistry has to be as much of a consideration as who starts, because the bench got its act together first, and I feel like that had some gravitational pull on getting the starters to play better too. Friday, when we go up against probably the East's toughest perimeter rotation, will be a real test, I think.

I love K'Von, but he ain't no Lou Gehrig.

I definitely think that at this moment, he's worth more to us on the floor. But I feel like in the pre-play-in era, he'd probably have more value as a trading piece. Heck, in a season where there was less parity overall, he'd have a lot more value as a trading piece. But this year isn't like that. Usually, blockbuster trades involving a high-dollar expiring contract involve one of three types of players on the other side: (1) a good or great veteran player from a team that's out of the playoff hunt; (2) a disgruntled player from a competitive team; or (3) some first round picks attached to a dramatically overpaid player on a non-expiring contract. We would have little interest in a (3)-type player right now. The market of (2)-type players is usually not that big, and this year it's especially thin. The only type of players who fit (2) are Simmons and maybe the Celtics stars, which is why there's so much chatter surrounding Simmons. But Philly clearly isn't interested in just getting Gallo and some picks back for Simmons, so that's not a plausible trade scenario for Gallo. That leaves (1), but the combination of relative parity and the play-in tournament mean that very few teams are actually out of the hunt. These are the playoff standings right now: In a normal year, Portland, New Orleans, San Antonio, and Sacramento might all be making all their vets available. But they are all doing well enough that those teams aren't in true fire-sale mode where they are prioritizing cap flexibility over improving their rosters. And some teams that everyone expected to suck this year (looking at you, Washington, Cleveland, and Minnesota) are actually legit threats to make the playoffs outright. That leaves Detroit, Orlando, OKC, Houston, and maybe Indiana. But Orlando, OKC, and Houston don't have any notable veterans--certainly none that would give us more than Gallo. That leaves Indiana's players and Jerami Grant. I have a feeling someone will outbid us for Sabonis or Turner if Gallo is the centerpiece from our end. We don't need LeVert or Brogdon. Which leaves Grant as pretty much the only target available. Again, I think other teams will outbid us if Gallo and a protected first are all we offer. And is Grant good enough to warrant unloading multiple firsts (thereby closing the door on a consolidation trade for a true star down the road) along with Gallo to get him? I think not. So yeah--this year, Gallo's more valuable to us on the floor.

Posts suggesting Bogi has value? Peoriabird will be coming any minute now...

Dang. Diesel putting experienced trial attorneys to shame with his cross-examination of Supes.

Methinks the other team would insist on a pretty rigorous physical. Bogi ain't Cam, whose contract is small enough that a team wouldn't really feel it if he turned out to be a bust. Bogi's higher salary + trade kicker mean that he probably isn't tradeable unless the other team is 100% confident he isn't damaged goods.

Not necessarily. There are certain injuries that won't get worse by playing through them, especially with appropriate rest/use management, but that won't get completely better until surgery. Okongwu's offseason labrum surgery and Huerter's offseason ankle procedure are both examples of that. O's in particular--basketball players frequently play through torn labrums (sometimes even torn labrums in both shoulders) because you can still function at like 90% of normal with it. I don't claim to know the anatomy of the knee, but I know there've been plenty of basketball players (and athletes in all other sports) who delay surgery until the offseason on injuries that eventually need it so that they stay available during playoff runs. The most extreme example I know of is from the WNBA--Elena Delle Donne had 3 herniated discs in her back, but gritted through it while her team was on a championship run in 2019, where she played a critical role despite being way less than 100%. Then she got the surgery in the offseason, needed another surgery a year later, and was only able to return this past season for a couple games before getting shut down again. She may have essentially put off career-ending surgery because even hobbled, she was still able to play a key role for her team. If you need me to find more examples, I'm sure I can. But it may well be that the Hawks figure that they can get Bogi up to 80 to 90% of his old self with rest/use management, and that 80/90% Bogi is going to be more useful in the playoffs than, say, TLC at 100%.

Well... With the early rule-outs continuing through the weekend, I think one of two things is happening: Bogi's injury is more concerning than they've let on--like maybe it's the sort of thing that can only be truly fixed by surgery, but they don't want to go that route if there's still a chance that the Hawks could make a serious playoff run and could need Bogi for that (even if he is less than 100%). It's not that serious an injury, but it *is* the sort of thing that will only get totally better with extended rest. And with the Hawks on the closest thing to a hot streak they've been all season, they are going to hold him out until he's either 100% healthy (since that knee has been an issue twice now in the past year) or until the hot streak comes crashing down and they need him back in the lineup to shake things up. I think that each game where he is ruled out before gameday makes (2) less likely.

Underrated post. I have not seen a single good counter to this: if Trae wanted to have catch-and-shoot opportunities off the ball, why does he stand at the front of the logo twiddling his thumbs whenever a teammate has the ball? When was the last time we saw him do a give-and-go (a basic play that plenty of guys do without a specific play call)? When he passes it to a wing, why does he then plant himself 35 feet from the basket? Why doesn't he demonstrate any sense of spacing or even awareness of where he should move so his teammates will have better angles to kick it out to him? The JC play that @Peoriabird posted is actually a great example of that. Trae was LITERALLY OFF SCREEN when JC released the pass, despite the fact that anyone with eyes could have seen the trap (and JC's need for help) coming from a mile away, and there was plenty of real estate closer to the three-point line that would have given JC an easier pass. Trash his teammates' playmaking skills all you want.* But if he's actually interested in catch-and-shoot opportunities, he has absolutely not shown any indication of that in the way he plays. This is the NBA. You take the opportunities you're given, and he hasn't done that. So sorry, Chris Haynes--there's a disconnect between what Rayford says and the way his son actually plays. And I think the latter is a better sign of what Trae would actually do in an off-ball role. * I'll point out that Bogi has always had a good assist rate (particularly for someone who has always played the 2-guard) and low turnover rate and absolutely has the ability to drive-and-dish well, as he's demonstrated quite often, particularly last season--when Trae would still stand at the logo picking his nose whenever Bogi had the ball. This is a fair point--and one that also suggests that the problem is not personnel, but system. I agree that the system (or rather, the lack thereof) is a major problem. But trades won't fix the system. And even (lack-of-)system issues don't explain why Trae has showed no interest in or awareness of literally high-school-level principles of off-ball movement in games.

Swing and a miss!

The fact that they've ruled him out a day or two in advance the last couple games suggests to me he has a ways to go. IMHO...I'm fine with him getting his knee scoped and shutting him down for a couple months if it means the Bogi we saw last spring has a chance to return. But I know some joint issues don't work like that.

I think you might be onto something, Diesel. https://twitter.com/sarah_k_spence/status/1483560084131225601?t=0Aq0zGDAVbq9_Z4IlbCzKg

The defensive communication issues are frankly to be expected considering how little time this crew has played together. Per Stathead, coming into tonight: Our starters (Trae/Huerter/Hunter/Collins/Okongwu) had been on the floor together for just 7.5 minutes...ever. That combination never saw the floor during the regular season last year, only played 0.7 minutes together in the playoffs, and they've only played 6.8 minutes together this season. The group that finished the game (swap out Collins for Gallo) had only had 8.1 minutes together (6.1 of them this season, 2 in the regular season last year). I'm happy with the effort and the toughness they showed defensively tonight. If they can sustain that (a big, big if), I'm confident the communication will come. Offensively...my only concern is the toll Trae's usage will take. I think a fully healthy Dre and Bogi, combined with a more aggressive Huerter, could actually be enough. But I'm still thinking a consolidation trade is coming. Gallo's stock is shooting way up, which both helps us on the court in the short term and makes him more enticing as a trade piece (especially in multi-team deals). That said, trading away Reddish for a first (and a player who is never going to see the floor here) also means there is no roster glut at the moment. The consolidation trade could be coming in the offseason.

Usage stats don't go back as far as the Wilt era, but Wilt's early teams were heliocentric in the sense that their strategy was "get the ball to Wilt and everyone get TF out of the way." Of course, those teams never won titles. I don't think it's a coincidence that the first time a Wilt team won a title was the first year he averaged less than 30ppg, and where he and Hal Greer were essentially co-first-options offensively. The Lakers teams he was on were never close to being heliocentric (West actually always scored and assisted more than Wilt on those teams). Kareem's teams were never heliocentric, at least not when they were contending...he had Big O playing point in Milwaukee and Magic in LA. And Shaq was never close to being the focal point of a heliocentric offense (though he was actually a great passer for a big man and it would have been interesting to see a team try to run their offense through him, but instead he had Penny/Kobe/Wade/Nash).

I guess I don't think of the "Big Three" teams as being heliocentric, even though LeBron consistently led them in both points and assists...Wade's and Bosh's roles in the offense were so prominent that it's just hard for me to classify them that way. Same with Kyrie in Cleveland. The closest of his teams that won a title was the Lakers a couple years ago, but AD was actually their leading scorer in the RS and the playoffs. Barely, but still...to me, to be heliocentric, you at least have to lead the team in both points and assists. Regardless, I don't think we can use LeBron as a valid comparison. He and Magic Johnson are the two easiest players in the history of the league to build contenders around, IMHO. They are so big, so strong, and so versatile that they can both play and defend all five positions (Magic proved that he could do it in the NBA Finals as a rookie). Surround them with almost any set of "good" players and they can make it work. The Kobe/Pau Lakers...I also don't see them as truly heliocentric. Kobe's usage rate was high (~32%), but not *that* high during the three years they made deep runs. In fact, if you look at the years that Kobe's teams made the Finals (highlighted below), there's a pretty clear pattern--they are the years in the prime of his career where his usage rates were *lowest*: And that's my point--yes, teams can win titles with players with a heliocentric-compatible skill set. But only if the offense is structured in a way that makes the teams less heliocentric in practice. That's what the triangle did for MJ and Kobe.* Westbrook and (especially) Iverson are, in my view, the closest comparisons to Trae. And I don't think it was ever possible to build title-winning teams with either of those guys at the center of a heliocentric offense. The closest Westbrook came was when Durant was the clear lead dog in OKC. * I'd actually love to see the triangle run here--bring in Sabonis and we'd have the perfect personnel for it. But that team would probably be too weak defensively to win it all.

I like everything you're saying. But we should also remember that there has literally never been a team with a heliocentric offense that has won a title in the past 40 years. Re MJ: I don't think a team running the triangle offense in the illegal defense era (zone D and even cheating off-ball were prohibited, which made the triangle offense's spacing extremely difficult to scheme against when the ball was in MJ's hands) qualifies as heliocentric, especially since Pippen always led the team in assists in the years they won titles. Re Curry and the pre-Durant Warriors: Klay's 1B scorer status and Draymond's role as a distributor makes it hard to classify them as truly heliocentric. I'll grant that's the closest example, though. Among the teams that everyone agrees were heliocentric, there haven't even been any near misses. Despite winning one game against the Lakers in '01, AI's teams were never a serious threat to win a title. The post-Shaq/pre-Gasol Lakers weren't either. Giannis didn't win until Jrue came in and took over primary distributor duties. Trae caught teams off-guard last year, and we still fell well short of a title. Luka hasn't won a playoff series yet. I'm just skeptical that it's even feasible for any team to win a title with as much ball-dominance as Trae likes. I think that come playoff time, it's too easy to scheme against. And if it is possible, I don't think it's possible for the "sun" in that system to be as putrid on D as Trae is. *sigh*

And your point is spot on, @NBASupes, that Trae is like MJ in that his skill set and personality are so unique that it's imperative to surround him with *exactly* the right teammates. I remain convinced that there was literally no one other than Pippen who had the complete skill set (three-level scorer with great passing skills, and a historically great on-ball defender) and mentality (how many other guys with Pippen's skill level would be okay with being such a clear second fiddle?) necessary to be the second superstar alongside MJ. If Krause doesn't draft Pippen, the Bulls never win a title. I'm convinced of that. Does that guy exist for Trae? I just don't know. If he doesn't exist or if we can't find him quickly, we're screwed. No way a team can win a title with a superstar who is that big a liability on one side of the ball unless everything else aligns absolutely perfectly. Even then, it might not be enough. He's been in the top 2 in offensive RAPTOR all season. But his defense is so freaking bad that in terms of overall RAPTOR, he's wedged between Garrison Matthews and Ricky Rubio. It's just not possible for him to continue to be *this* big a defensive drag and for the team to truly contend.

Since you called my thread elite, I felt obligated to read your whole dissertation, haha. No, but seriously, that's very interesting stuff. I do think it looks like the positive effect on bigs is much more pronounced than the negative effect on wings. So I think that the key is finding the "right" kinds of wings to pair with him...but like you said, that's awfully, awfully hard. Right now, the main issue is defense (my post about his clutch offensive performance notwithstanding). He is just a historically bad defensive player. That's not an exaggeration. He's the only guy who has been bottom-20 in defensive RAPTOR 3 seasons running...and he's been doing it 4 straight years now, never finishing *better* than 13th-worst in the league. And the constant ball-watching and his seeming mentality of "I will make at most 1 close-out, ball-pressure, or hard rotation per possession" (seriously, watch him in-game...even when he does try, it's always just a single spurt of effort, followed by ball-watching) has to take a toll on the other guys on the floor. It's easy to see how that would drag down other wings' defensive performance after awhile. Also, did you catch his postgame interview today? Take a listen to this. Listen to his answer to the first question about what he thought went wrong. His answer was basically "my teammates missed open shots." But the killer wasn't just a couple missed shots--it was the fact that they let the Knicks score 10 points in just over 2 minutes down the stretch And then later when asked about whether he thought the team was getting closer, he said yes, and that the team played great defense for three and a half quarters. But that ignores that the Knicks blew open their initial 14-point lead by rattling off 23 points in 6 minutes after Trae entered the game in the 2Q. The fact that he (and the team, but he's far and away the #1 culprit) are having so many awful defensive lapses and he just doesn't seem to even see or think about that...it's very, very disturbing.

The level of Trae apologia on display here astounds me. Again, Trae is shooting 25% in the 4th on 3s, 11% in crunch time. Last year, those numbers were 34% in the 4th and 29% in crunch time. Better, but still well below average. Whatever confidence he has on those shots, it clearly is completely and totally unwarranted late in the game. Blame tired legs or whatever, but those are not good shots for him in clutch situations. No. You're seeing what you want to see. Blaming this on bad screens ignores that in the NBA, screeners don't usually set up right next to the ballhandler, because that constricts the ballhandler's movement and limits his options. Instead, screeners generally set up a pace or two away, and give the ballhandler the option of using or declining that screen. It's on the ballhandler just as much as the screener to make the screen effective by bringing his man into the screen. This is what accepting a screen looks like--the screener sets up a couple feet away... and you dribble toward and around to the screener, making a move that forces your man to run into it. Now watch the video of the crucial turnover. Kevin started moving toward Trae here, when Trae is centered at the front of the red part of the Heat logo: Trae sees the screen coming and where Kevin is setting up--which ended up being at a spot a bit closer than Dieng's screen in the clip above. But instead of dribbling toward/curving around the screen, Trae made two hesitation dribbles and kept moving laterally to his right, making no effort to force his man to where Kevin was setting up: Trae saw the screen coming but made zero effort to bring his man toward it. That's at least as much, if not more, on Trae than it is on Kevin. And I've seen lots of late-game instances where Trae literally waved off screens as the screener was setting up this season too. Next time I see one, I'll post it here. Trae has lots of opportunities to use his teammates late in the game. But he's clearly made the decision that he wants to be the one to take those shots, even though he's frankly not making good decisions or getting good looks when he does so.

I wasn't saying the ball shouldn't be in Trae's hands in the clutch. My whole point is that he's NOT being a playmaker. Instead, he's playing Hero Ball, where everyone on the opposing team and their uncle knows that Trae is going to be looking only for his own shot, and is not going to make any effort to look for his teammates (as demonstrated by his miniscule assist rate) unless/until he's been trapped (as demonstrated by his astronomical turnover rate). Yeah, let's get him the ball. But he shouldn't be chucking 30-footers with 18 seconds on the clock or waving off multiple screens because he wants to be a hero.

The Westbrook comparison is on-point...partly because just about the only thing Trae does BETTER in the fourth quarter is rebound. Although I don't think that even Russ has had a stretch where he averaged nearly 5x as many turnovers as assists in the clutch...

I decided to dig into this after seeing a few people say that Trae's 30+ jumper late in last night's game was not a bad shot because he makes it at a good percentage overall. And that's true in general. He came into last night shooting 40.8% on shots from 30+ feet. But I wanted to see if that was true in the 4th Quarter and, in particular, in clutch situations, because my "eye test" is that Trae has increasingly played an inefficient form of Hero Ball late in games this year. Sadly, I was right...like depressingly right. If you look just at the 4th quarter, Trae came into last night shooting a miserable 27.7% (5-of-18) from 30+ feet. By comparison, he shoots 44.7% on those shots in the first half, and 46.6% in the third quarter. I was curious to see if that got any better (or worse) in close/late situations, but wasn't able to find detailed shooting splits for clutch time. But...I was able to see his 3P% overall in clutch time versus the rest of the game. The sample size for clutch is small, but here are Trae's 3P% splits this season: 1st Quarter: 39.0% (32-of-82) 2nd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65) 3rd Quarter: 40.0% (26-of-65...not a typo, it's actually exactly the same as 2Q) 4th Quarter: 25.9% (15-of-58) Clutch (<5min / <= 5pts): 11.1% (1-of-9) Okay, yeah, but 3-pointers are just one facet of the game, right? Unfortunately, the clutch rot seems to affect other aspects of Trae's offensive game too. You can see the overall and by-quarter stats here, and the clutch stats here. Overall, Trae shoots an even 50.0% (249-of-498) on 2-pointers. In the 4th quarter, that essentially holds steady at 50.4% (54-of-107). But in clutch situations, it drops to 44.0% (11-of-25). Overall, Trae averages 9.8 assists and 4.3 turnovers per 36 minutes. But in the 4th quarter, he averages just 6.5 assists and commits 4.7 turnovers per 36 minutes. And in the clutch, he averages 1.7 assists and 7.6 turnovers per 36 minutes (!!!!!!!!) That last stat just blew me away. Among players who have played at least 30 clutch minutes this year, Trae is #102 in assists per 36 minutes, but #2 in turnovers per 36 minutes (Giannis is #1 in TO/36 in the clutch, but with 6.2 assists). This from the guy who is #2 in assists per 36 minutes overall. So in clutch time, Trae is both shooting and passing not just poorly, but horribly. And that kills us, because Trae also has the league's highest usage rate in the clutch. It's safe to say we can't win games if Trae keeps playing hero ball late like this. Especially if Trae's defense remains as awful as it's been. --------------------------- Look, I'm not seriously not a hater when it comes to Trae. He's my avatar. I have his jersey, his kicks (black/white SoSoDef edition), two name/number tees, and got my daughter a jersey and t-shirt as well. The only other current Hawk whose jersey I have is Cam's. Oh...wait... Seriously, I want Trae to succeed more than anything. But I think our playoff run last year got into his head, and he's bought into his own hype as a ice-cold, borderline-invincible clutch player. As a result, he's trying to do too much late in games. Teams see it coming, and defend accordingly, but Trae forces it, resulting in low-percentage shots and very little of the playmaking that makes him so special. I can't find stats on play types, but it looks like he goes ISO and goes away from the PnR late in game, which I'm guessing is a major reason he falls off so much. And it's killing us. Add that to the fact that he seems to be giving less and less effort defensively, and I'm getting worried about him being the championship-caliber centerpiece I thought he was. Hopefully Nate--or someone else in the locker room--has the clout and testicular fortitude to tell him to stop playing a totally different style of ball late in the game.

That's crazy, Supes. I know you're mad about THIS trade, but it's nuts to say he's bad at trades. We got Capela for a guy who retired almost immediately after and a #17 pick in an extremely shallow draft. All Clint did was lead the NBA in rebounding and almost singlehandedly make our defense decent, earning us a trip to the conference finals. That was a heist. We turned Kris Dunn and Bruno into Wright. Dunn is out of the league, and Bruno is not far behind. For all our frustration about Wright's lack of aggression, he is clearly much better than the guys we gave up. That was clearly a win. Other trades that landed us decent players include the Len/Parker/Dedmon cycle of trades, which ultimately turned into Snell, Mays, and Deuce Coop (yes, I'm still trying to make fetch happen). From Snell's performance last season alone, that was at least a break-even trade. That's it as far as trades that involved rotation players rather than pure cap-space trades or swapping draft picks. We broke even on literally all of those types of trades. I'm finding it hard to have TITS with this trade because it just feels like we should have gotten more for Cam. But Travis has clearly been good at trades in the past, and that's the only reason I'm extending some benefit of the doubt on this one.