niremetal

What's your (and everyone else's) prediction on what we do with Skylar? You thinking we'll give him our second two-way deal?

I'm truly baffled that you don't seem to understand (or won't acknowledge) that there is a real difference between the statements "I think he's a bust" and "I think he's going to be a bust." The first is a label. The second is a prediction. That's not a distinction without a difference. Whatever, dude. Stay mad if that's you. I'm not gonna waste any more time trying to explain the difference between those two things.

I was with you in the first paragraph. But the next two...sorry, I just don't see it like that. Re "more length," that's just not true. Huerter is listed as an inch taller than Bogi, but they measured the same height at their respective combines and Bogi actually has a 6'11 wingspan compared to Huerter's 6'7.75. Re "better defender," I thought that until the playoffs. But in the playoffs, Bogi looked impressive defensively before his injury, and even made himself a pest after that. Bogi was very physical and used his length to get into the passing lanes. When it mattered most, Bogi stepped up his D to the level it needs to be. If you look at some of the close games we played down the stretch of the regular season, it was the same thing--Bogi got more physical and was a solid, disruptive defender in clutch situations. It's a bit annoying that he doesn't put in that effort defensively all the time, but that's just not unusual in the NBA, particularly when we're not asking Bogi to guard other teams' best players. I know it goes against the grain, but I think Bogi is on the same level as K'Von defensively--solid, but unspectacular. I agree Huerter is more athletic, but Bogi's longer wingspan and what I think is just a higher overall BBIQ more than offsets that. Most importantly, Bogi was truly an elite offensive player down the stretch last season. And even if you look at the season as a whole--that is, including the time LP was misusing Bogi and the time Bogi was shaking off the rust from his knee injury--there was literally no offensive metric where Huerter was better than Bogi. In my view, Bogi today represents Huerter's ceiling. And since Bogi's game doesn't rely heavily on athleticism, but instead on his length, strength, incredibly quick release and accuracy on his jumper, and ability to dribble through traffic, his game should age gracefully. (Although I did say much the same thing about Joe Johnson and...not so much.) I do think you're right that Huerter in 3 years will be a more marketable player than Bogi. But for that exact reason, I also seriously, seriously doubt we'll get him cheaper than Bogi. $18M a year is NOT a steep contract anymore for a player like Bogi (or Huerter), and I think some team will offer Huerter more than that next summer if he has another solid year because young wings who can score and defend don't come on the market every day. If we can convince Huerter to take, say, 4/$64M, by all means let's keep the man. But if wants to test the market (which I would tell him to do if I were his agent), I think there's a good chance he's gone at the deadline.

^^^^^this On a totally unrelated note, here's a crazy thought--maybe people need to take posts on the Squawk a bit less seriously/personally. This is an Internet fan blog, for pete's sake. I admit I've been gone awhile, but far as I've always known/seen, predictions and gut reactions based on ridiculously incomplete information are pretty much an essential part of the content of a site like this. I don't see why predictions and gut reactions should suddenly stop just because it's Summer League. I mean, after the draft, no one says "DON'T POST DRAFT GRADES OR MAKE ANY PREDICTIONS ABOUT HOW A PLAYER'S CAREER WILL TURN OUT. NO HOT TAKES! IT'S TOO EARLY!" Because half the fun of talking about the draft is getting different people's reactions and thoughts on the picks. Well, a couple games into Summer League, we have a little more info on these players than we had at draft time, so I don't get why people are suddenly pearl-clutching about predictions or reactions. I'm not labeling Jalen a bust, or giving up on him, or anything like that. I actually still think he was a great pick at #20 because guys with his talent level are almost never available that low. As I mentioned earlier, the average #20 pick has a ~3-5 year career as a marginal rotation player. Jalen's ceiling, like@NBASupessaid, is way higher than that. So I think it was a great pick because I think swinging for the fences was the right call given where the Hawks are. That said, I'm taking the new stuff I've seen over the past few days and adding it to what I knew about Jalen before the draft, and having a gut reaction that leads me to a not-very-informed, casual prediction that I don't think he'll go on to have a good career. I am 100% aware that he has only played 3 SL games and that he still has tons of time to prove me wrong, and I hope he does. But the knock on him before the draft was that he expects things to come easy for him and he doesn't push through adversity when it doesn't. The most obvious evidence for that was that he quit on both his high school and college teams. I felt like it continued during his pre-draft process when he went through his workouts and skipped parts of the combine like he didn't really have anything to prove. Those were major red flags that gave 18 GMs pause before TS picked him. Now, I feel like I've seen a few more red flags since then. (One that actually rankled me more than some of the on-court sequences is his statement to a reporter that he asked an assistant coach to review film so he could work on stuff. This is a personal bias, but I come from a "show me, don't tell me" perspective. Going and telling a reporter about it strikes me as the move of someone who wants people to *think* he cares about improving his game more than he does about actually improving his game.) Anyway, I really, truly hope Jalen succeeds. He's got oodles of time to turn things around. But I don't like the layman's "vibe" I get off of him, and I'm saying so. You don't like reading that, feel free to scroll.

No I'm not. I won't know if he's a bust until his career is at least a few years in. Right now I have no basis for assessing his career. Instead, I'm making a gut-level prediction of what I think his career would be if I had to make a guess. I'm basing that on his time in HS and college and what I feel like are glimpses of the same stuff here. He still has lots of time to turn it around, but my (very early) prediction is that he don won't. If you can't see the distinction between a prediction and a label like that, I don't know what to tell you. Anyway, I've been around long enough to realize that my predictions are often wrong. I'm hoping this ends up being one of those wrong predictions.

I'm not labeling him a bust. I said if I had to guess on how his career would turn out, I would put that money on bust. And I'm not sure it's correctable. That requires an insight into Jalen's psyche that I just don't have. But I will say that NBA history is absolutely littered with examples showing that drive/motor/commitment/ability to overcome adversity/etc is not something that is easily taught.

I have to keep reminding myself that the average career of a #20 pick is a ~5 year career with a "peak" of being a subpar role player for a season or two. TS took a big swing with Jalen, knowing that it was a higher chance that he was drafting a potential star but also a much higher chance that he was drafting an absolute bunch. With our glut of young talent, I like that strategy. But if I had to lay my money at this point, it would definitely be on "bust."

It's doubly troubling because it was a similar lack of involvement that led him to totally give up on Duke. And it's going to be a LOT longer before he's going to have a big role on a decent NBA team than it would have been at Duke.

Truth. I feel like I've seen a few red flags with his motor and seeming to make more of an effort to convince people that he cares than showing that he cares on the court.

Yeah...it's kind of interesting that literally no one has even mildly impressed except the three guys we expected. That said, it's summer league...every team is overwhelmingly dudes who will never be rotation players in the NBA.

I agree with all the premises here. But I think the most likely outcome is that, absent a significant injury or regression by Bogi (or no significant improvement from Cam), we trade Huerter at the deadline in a major consolidation trade that brings us a second star. Either a package with Capela to bring in an even more elite big, or in a package with Gallo's effectively-expiring contract to a team that's going nowhere now but could see Huerter taking on a major role with them (or that would be in a better position than us to sign-and-trade him next offseason). Like you said, Huerter is in a weird spot where he is kind of replaceable in his current role on the Hawks, but he could be another team's Bogi--a big (a bit taller than Bogi, but less wingspan) guard who is serviceable on D and a versatile scorer. If we think Bogi's going to maintain his level of play for the next 2-3 seasons and that Cam will continue improving for the next couple years as well, then Huerter's the odd man out here. And we would probably rather get significant assets for him than be in the position to match a contract that we *really* don't want to match. Because unlike JC, Huerter is unlikely to be a projected starter here next season, and there's a real chance he gets a 4/$80M offer, which is way too much/too long to commit to a guy who we don't think will ever start.

I agree with Masai at #1. I disagree with Presti at #2. In my view, he is one of those guys who has made a few shrewd moves but has benefitted more from luck and/or simply having good draft position and not effing it up. His teams also just never felt like they fit together all that well. So yeah...tough for me to see him that high. The reason I disagree with the folks who put Schlenk at #1 is that I am not yet convinced that this last postseason run wasn't lightning in a bottle. I'll start by saying that I don't disagree with any of the reasons people have given for putting Schlenk at #1--he is probably the best talent scout among GMs in recent league history. The pieces he has brought here seem to fit together perfectly. He is by light years the best GM the Hawks have ever had, and is solidly the best GM of any Atlanta team I've ever seen (Schuerholz being the only one who was close--the worst-to-first '91 Braves, built without any splashy free agent signings, being the only close analogue to these Hawks). But...remember that this team was 14-20 on March 1. And while Schlenk timed the firing of LP perfectly, the guy who then went on to turn it around (Nate McMillan) was someone that was chosen by LP, not Schlenk. It was a stroke of luck that Coach Nate turned out to be a perfect fit to take the helm, but it's questionable how much of that is attributable to Schlenk. In short, Schlenk tossed down a beautiful set of puzzle pieces, but the guy who ultimately figured out how to put them together wasn't someone of his choosing. Would we be having the same conversation if Nate had turned down the interim coaching job and some other guy that Travis plucked took the spot instead? It's really hard to say, because there has literally never been a midseason turnaround of a team that was as clearly attributable to a coaching change as the one the Hawks experienced this past season. And if you take away the impact Nate had...are we really confident that the Hawks would be in the position they are? Would we be talking about how well this team was constructed if we finished the season 33-39 and were easily dismissed in the play-in tournament instead of 41-31 and coming off a playoff run that I also attribute largely to McMillan (who made major, series-altering adjustments during the Knicks and Sixers series against former COTY winners)? (And I say this as a guy who thought McMillan was not a very good coach before this year, remembering him mainly from his time at the helm of the Blazers. Like, seriously, Blazers fans then had almost exactly the same view of him as Hawks fans did of Woody--a guy who just had no clue how to draw up offensive schemes and was utterly incapable of making adjustments. It's incredible to see how much McMillan has grown as a coach since then. I had no inkling, although admittedly I never watched the Pacers during his time leading them.) Again, none of this is a knock on Schlenk at ALL. I would give him one of my kidneys at this point if needed to keep him alive through the next few seasons. But combine all the stuff above with the fact that the Raptors have a 'chip and the Hawks have yet to advance past the ECFs, and it's hard for me to put Schlenk ahead of Masai just yet.

I'd take them in the order they are numbered. I think it's crazy to say that Team 3 would easily beat Team 2. Team 2 is the best defensive squad, and Huerter/Gallo beautifully complement Deuce Coop's game on offense. Swap Bogi to that squad in place of Huerter, and I'd take them over Team 1.

The only thing you believe is that Coop will be the #2 if the people ahead of him get hurt and Nate has no other choice. If you actually thought Cooper could earn the #2 job on the merits rather than due to injuries, you'd take my bet.

HOLD UP. You mean that the quality of PGs who Deuce Coop will be [guarding/guarded by] in the regular season would be HIGHER than Jordan Bone?

You clearly don't actually believe that, or else you'd be confident enough to take this bet: https://www.hawksquawk.net/topic/434068-backup-pg/?do=findComment&comment=1114972

Nobody took that bet because we all saw last season how injuries can force guys into rotation roles who normally wouldn't have sniffed the floor, and you weren't confident enough in Cooper to take a bet that took that scenario off the table.

If the Beach Boys reference doesn't work anymore, could just drop the "little" and go with "Deuce Coop," since the Deuce Coupe is still one of the best cars ever made. https://www.hagerty.com/media/car-profiles/how-the-deuce-coupe-became-the-quintessential-hot-rod/ Cuz I mean come on, y'all. Can't let the convergence of deuce and "Coop" just pass us by.

I'm dating myself with this reference, but I feel like the nickname of a fast little dude named Cooper who wears #2 has to be "Little Deuce Coop."

Left off my favorite part of his Reddish quote, though. A GM after my own casual value investor's heart.

#iykyk

Good post. But I think folks need to take a few deep breaths when assessing where are younger players are at right now. Re the 5 spot...I agree OO will get there. But I don't think he's close to displacing Clint (who was one of the league's best defenders last year) as the 5 in a defensive lineup right now. Clint is one of the best defensive centers in the league. I roll my eyes at the people who think he somehow got exposed in the playoffs last year, as if Embiid doesn't eat even elite defensive centers for breakfast (he dropped 40 and 19 the last time he faced Rudy Gobert). OO's foul rate alone precludes him being viable in that role right now. Again, not that OO is bad, but adjusting to the demands of defense in the NBA has a steep learning curve, and Onyeka is still navigating that. Which leads me to Jalen Johnson. Until we see him against real NBA talent (which rarely is the case in summer league), it's nuts to assume he could handle any position in a defensive lineup. I suspect he'll be in for a rude awakening when he actually has to contend with the speed and power of rotation bigs in the NBA. All rookies do--even ones who showed much better D in college than Jalen did. I'd be shocked if he were someone we bring in for defensive purposes any time this year. There's nothing he'll be able to do now that others couldn't do better, whether it's Dre, Cam, or even Huerter on the perimeter or Clint, OO, or Dieng on 4s or 5s. Fortunately, there's pretty much never a reason for a team to trot out a full 1-5 defensive lineup. You adjust to the matchup(s) the opponent is exploiting. And like you said, it's nice to have lots of options there. I suspect Cam and Delon will be the two guys who see the floor most as defensive substitutes this year. I don't think there's any circumstance where defense is key and Clint isn't on the floor (unless he's out due to injury). I could see circumstances where OO and Clint are both on the floor at the same time, but probably only in situations where we're going possession-by-possession.

I think @LongTimeFanand@AHFboth made great points above. One thing that's missing, though, is that there has been some improvement among the "secondary" contenders in the East as well, most notably Chicago, IMHO. I think Chicago dramatically overpaid* to improve its roster, but I have little doubt that the additions of DeRozan and Lonzo bought them a few extra wins--especially since they'll be able to either bring back Markkanen or get assets by signing-and-trading him. Miami also improved (although less than people seem to think). Boston will be better this year with Jaylen Brown's return. And among the top-tier seeds, I think they'll all be roughly as good this coming year as they were last year. All told, I think the tougher East will cost the Hawks a few wins, offsetting any gains due to the strengthening of our second unit and/or Reddish/Hunter bouncing back. (* But maybe not. For DeRozan, I'm expecting him to develop a 3-point shot at some point, which will offset any decline in his game due to slower feet. I don't think there are any other consistent ~85% free throw shooters who are ~25% from deep, and I figure he'll make that adjustment soon-ish. If that happens, he'll probably maintain his current level of production, and the contract Chicago gave him isn't a dramatic overpay for that) The temptation is definitely to assume Bogi will experience some regression, but at the same time, given Trae's explosive playoff performance, defenses will certainly not being keying in any less heavily on Trae this year than they did last year. If that opens up more good looks for Bogi, then that (combined with him being healthy and not being grossly misutilized by LP) might mean that he can maintain something resembling his late-season pace. And as you indicated, Bogi performed at an all-star level in the second half of the season (21ppg, 4.2 apg, 50/49/90 shooting after Nate made him a starter). A full season of that would be worth an additional few wins by itself. More broadly, everyone is saying right now that the Hawks won't be able to catch anyone by surprise next season. But if the main lesson teams learned from our playoff run is "we need to stop Trae Young," then I think Trae's abilities as a distributor combined with the great fit of all the pieces around him will mean that the team as a whole still has a chance to catch opponents by surprise.

I thought that was weird too. The only thing I can think of is that having a last year option of some sort might give the Hawks flexibility to "restructure" JC's contract before the 2024-25 season. IIRC, you can't restructure a contract in a way that reduces a player's salary for any of the seasons covered by the contract. I.e., if we would have made 2024-25 a regular contract year, we couldn't restructure/extend the contract unless we paid him more than $26.6M (or at least no less than $26.6M) that year, and subsequent years couldn't decrease by more than 8% per. We wouldn't have the option of coming to an agreement where we pay him him less than 2024-25 than his player option would pay, but extending his contract out 2-3 more seasons so that he comes out with more guaranteed money overall. Maybe it's different with a player option year? I.e., JC could agree to waive his option in exchange for a longer contract? If there is an impression that JC is likely to want to stay in ATL even longer-term, that possibility might be worth something. Of course, conversely, it's possible that Schlenk is simply much better at scouting talent than he is at negotiating contracts...