Tonight's win inexcusable...

[Lascar78]

First of all, you're ignoring my main point which is that tanking doesn't guarantee the worst record. And when you're top 3 protected, your odds get ugly if you don't have the worst record.Secondly, Oden is claiming he won't come out. Nobody believed Noah last year, but he stayed. Oden can stay. All those guys are freshman, and you never know who will stay. I haven't seen Durant play, but I see that nbadraft.net has him listed as a 6'10" SF, with an NBA comparison of McGrady He is 220lbs. That tells me he will probably be a light PF in the NBA. So he would be more competition for the Marvin-Smith-Shelden group already fighting over who plays at the 4. Hardly our franchise center or PG. Same for Noah. And you yourself agree that Thabeet is tenuous. He has size, but would be somewhat of a project like Marvin. Could pan out or not.The truth is that there is only one guy who would be worth tanking for at this point and it's Oden, who may or may not be coming out. We may or may not get the worst record, and if we don't, our likelihood of giving the #4 or #5 pick away to Phoenix goes up dramatically. Even with the best record, our odds of not getting him are obviously at least 3 times higher than our odds of getting him.These odds don't add up to the kind of incentive that would be necessary to be worth breaking our team's desire to win and morale over.

[Guest Walter]

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First of all, you're ignoring my main point which is that tanking doesn't guarantee the worst record. And when you're top 3 protected, your odds get ugly if you don't have the worst record.

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Nobody's ignoring your "point" Lascar. We all know that the odds decrease the better you place in the lottery. We all know that tanking does not "guarantee" the worst record. We simply KNOW:1) there are no "guarantees" so you must play the odds2) that the odds significantly increase the better you place in the lottery3) the odds of playing the lottery significantly increase the sooner and better you tank4) the regardless of how perfectly we tank, as long as we try well enough the odds of winning the draft and getting a franchise player in this draft are exponentially greater than getting any significant individual through FAcy or trade (without conceeding too much) much less a franchise-player comperable to the 3 available in this draft, especially given our current ownership.That's the crux. We definately understand the possibility of "failure" with any plan. Simply, you do not seem to understand the probability of success with any plan. You won't discuss comparitive PROBABILITY, you only choose to discuss our plans' probability and the mere possibility of "failure". THAT is a franchise detrimental mindset. You don't like the odds. You don't like the mere possibility of "failure". Show me better ones. Show me certain success. Don't just complain. Get off your high horse and make real comparisons, not belly-aching nonsense.W

[CBAreject]

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You won't discuss comparitive PROBABILITY, you only choose to discuss our plans' probability and the mere possibility of "failure".

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That's what these people don't understand! Their argument is:Let A be tanking and B be playing for a few more winsPlan A has a chance of failurePlan B has a chance of successTherefore we should choose plan BThey never examine the relative chances. If we try to win 30 games, what will be helped? Sure, our boys may like each other more. They may feel they're on their way to big things (40 wins). But, what if the next year is no better. What if we're a 35 win team? What if we have to blow it all up and start over because we're capped out with no way to improve significantly?That was Pete Babcock's problem. Instead of tanking right, he tried to maintain mediocrity. He saddled us with big contracts so that we couldn't sign anyone. We were just a smidge to good to get top picks. The one impact pick we had (FREAKING GASOL) he traded. My God! It seems like you would learn from his failures.If you try to maintain mediocrity, you will, but you won't get any better. You must die first in order to live in this business. We are already half dead. In Lascar's sick analogy, he makes a fatal error. Yes, the diseased patient could chose to die more quickly or continue to fight for life. BUT, in neither scenario can the death result in renewed life. A better question would be this: If an aging mother wolf is lost in the blizzard with her pups, does she cover them to keep them warm or use them to keep herself warm? She's not long for this world anyway. Why not try to preserve the new life? Of course, the pups may die the next day before the storm ends or they find their cave, but why sacrifice that *chance* at new life (pups = lotto balls) for something that's not worth saving anyway (aging wolf = 30 wins)?

[AHF]

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You won't discuss comparitive PROBABILITY, you only choose to discuss our plans' probability and the mere possibility of "failure".

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That's what these people don't understand! Their argument is:Let A be tanking and B be playing for a few more winsPlan A has a chance of failurePlan B has a chance of successTherefore we should choose plan B

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The people who are adamently against tanking don't see the choice as tanking or playing for a few more wins. They see the tanking option coming with the poisoning of the atmosphere on the club and further damage to the team's reputation in the community and in the league (either without qualification or with the qualifier that this would be the case if the Hawks don't get a top pick this year). They also would like the team to come together and win more than a few more games but to put together a run at a playoff spot this year and carry that over in the future for positive growth by all the young players on the team.I understand both perspectives here.

[Gray Mule]

If we loose enough, Hawks are GUARANTEED to get

a franchise center and be all set to be great for

many years in the future!!

If we win, we give away our draft pick and have nothing.

If this is true, then winning is nothing. Loosing is

everything. Regardless of what all the other teams

in the NBA does, Hawks MUST end up with the most losses

AND the top draft pick in the lottery AND the center

we MUST HAVE may or may not enter the draft!

Since we have not won the lottery before, this increases

our chances greatly for winning it this time around??

Flip a coin 5 times and it comes up heads every time.

What are the chances it will come up tails on the next

flip? Unless they are using a two headed coin or the

coin is somehow rigged to come up heads every time,

your odds are still 50/50 - Just as it was on the

previous five tosses. Do the math.

Walter, if I'm a non Hawk fan for wanting them to win

games, then go ahead and put me in this catagory.

Too many things can go wrong between now and the

ping pong balls falling. There are just too many

poor teams in the NBA to guarantee the Hawks anything.

Winning doesn't guarantee anything, but, neither does

loosing - Except maybe loosing your small fan base

that we have now. Suddenly becoming THE team to beat

with the addition of one draft pick? Sometimes it

happens and sometimes it doesn't. It did for the Cavs.

Maybe it will for Atlanta. When I see it, then I'll

believe it. Until then - -

GO HAWKS!!!!!!

[Lascar78]

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In Lascar's sick analogy, he makes a fatal error. Yes, the diseased patient could chose to die more quickly or continue to fight for life. BUT, in neither scenario can the death result in renewed life.

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DUDE.I made an intentionally stupid analogy to point out how dumb Walter's analogies are.

[Lascar78]

I don't know if you want odds, I'm not going to make any up. I think that the odds of this core ever succeeding together is better if they start learning how to hit big shots and grind wins out together.I think that if this team disintegrates this year and they all hate each other and the city, even if we do get lucky and get Oden, we would not be that much better off than if they rallied and won 30 something wins this year and contend for the playoffs. I don't know if Joe would still want to be here, he might ask to leave before too long. We might have to start over. If we rally and keep this team, and just add the Indy pick (PG), we wouldn't have as much talent, but we'd have something to build on. On the other hand, if you tank and miss out on Oden, you've destroyed everything. You'd basically have to blow the team up and start all over. Morale would be destroyed.I'm not willing to gamble with flat out bad odds, when the results would be absolutely disastrous if we miss out.

[Guest Walter]

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I made an intentionally stupid analogy to point out how dumb Walter's analogies are.

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...against my analogy or point. It is merely you making a stupid analogy. Wasn't hard for you I'm sure, but making your own stupid point does not debate another point one way or another. It merely avoids it. W

[Lascar78]

I answered your irrelevant analogy, you didn't answer mine.L

[Guest Walter]

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If we rally and keep this team, and just add the Indy pick (PG), we wouldn't have as much talent, but we'd have something to build on.

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Remember, the Indy pick is ours whether or not we "tank" so that does not reflect in any talent difference and ANY move you suggest we could make without tanking we can conceivably make more easily (having more to bargain with) with tanking. So when you conceed that even with the Indy pick "we wouldn't have as much talent" you are making the BIGGEST UNDERSTATEMENT EVER MADE IN THIS FORUM!

SECONDLY, we would still have something to build upon. Hell, just having the fortunes of the franchise turn positive for us would get everyone excited. You saw how Lebron made Cleveland have the 5th highest NBA attendence after being 28th the year prior! That level of excitement would charge each and every single player on this team to new, unthought of heights. That's not "somethign to build upon"? Isn't more talent "something to build upon"? What about our players truning around and seeing a GD franchise-force in the paint? That isn't "something to build on"? Good grief man you want to build the biggest crane ever based upon feelings. You need more than that to '"build on".

W

[Guest Walter]

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I answered your irrelevant analogy, you didn't answer mine.L

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You mean your admittedly stupid one. Wonder why. Truth is I did answer it. No one dies in the NBA. They only linger in mediocrity. That's it. If you pick 1st it is a chance at an afterlife, particularly with a draft like this. Don't pass it up for the likes of your nonsense.W

[Lascar78]

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Remember, the Indy pick is ours whether or not we "tank" so that does not reflect in any talent difference and ANY move you suggest we could make without tanking we can conceivably make more easily (having more to bargain with) with tanking.

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Yeah I know. Moving JJ and Smith and whoever else once they ask out because they're sick of the losing and we didn't get Oden should be easy too.

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So when you conceed that even with the Indy pick "we wouldn't have as much talent" you are making the BIGGEST UNDERSTATEMENT EVER MADE IN THIS FORUM!

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No I believe that when I called you a retard it was much bigger. The point is that a team that hates each other with Oden is not much better off than a team without Oden that has gelled, learned how to win, and is hungry to go out there and compete. What you lose in talent you gain in other areas.

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SECONDLY, we would still have something to build upon. Hell, just having the fortunes of the franchise turn positive for us would get everyone excited. You saw how Lebron made Cleveland have the 5th highest NBA attendence after being 28th the year prior! That level of excitement would charge each and every single player on this team to new, unthought of heights. That's not "somethign to build upon"? Isn't more talent "something to build upon"? What about our players truning around and seeing a GD franchise-force in the paint? That isn't "something to build on"? Good grief man you want to build the biggest crane ever based upon feelings. You need more than that to '"build on".

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First of all Oden is not Lebron. I'm watching him have his best game ever, and it's still not insane. Mostly 2 handed dunks because he's taller than everyone. He'll be a good center, but there's no telling if he'll be the truth. Do you know how badly Lebron would have dominated college if he had gone? He averaged 21/6/5.5/1.6 as a rookie in the NBA. Oden averages 14/9/4 in college and already has 2 losses. He has shied away in the bigger games. I think he'll be very good, but he's no sureshot MVP candidate or anything.

Also this city is sick of losing. What you gain by bringing in Oden, you partly lose by another atrocious season. And if we lose out and don't get Oden, it's over. No one will care. Move the team somewhere else.

Also a big guy without flashy moves is not going to get crowds nuts the way that a do it all stud like Lebron that has the ball for 80% of the game does. I know in your mind Oden and Lebron are one and the same but they're not. This town sells out for AI and Kobe alot easier than it does for Duncan.

[Guest Walter]

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First of all Oden is not Lebron. I'm watching him have his best game ever, and it's still not insane. Mostly 2 handed dunks because he's taller than everyone. He'll be a good center, but there's no telling if he'll be the truth. Do you know how badly Lebron would have dominated college if he had gone? He averaged 21/6/5.5/1.6 as a rookie in the NBA. Oden averages 14/9/4 in college and already has 2 losses. He has shied away in the bigger games. I think he'll be very good, be he's no sureshot MVP candidate or anything

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And O'Neal's rookie stats were better than Lebron's. 'Nuff said. But of course, arguable chemistry is more important than the next Shaq (truth). Not.

W

[Lascar78]

For being one handed, he sure does have a good right-handed jump hook. And two handed dunks. And so on.And his stats are also very similar to sam bowie's so what? He plays nothing like Shaq and never will. He's not jumping through opponents. So far he's getting most of his points by virtue of being way taller than his oppositions. That only goes so far in the NBA. He has a decent jump hook, and a decent drop step, but nothing spectacular. He also had the key turnover that should have cost them another game today except that Tennesee missed both clutch free throws and a buckeye hit a game winning 3.So again, I would LOVE to have Oden, but he's no sure thing.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

LOL . . great posts Lascar.

CBA's and Walter's fatal flaw in their "tank" theory, is that they truly believe that if this team just shuts it down, that everything will be OK either this year or the next, if we get an Oden, Durant, or a Noah at the center.

The reality is that when teams usually obtain that high of a pick in the draft, they usually get rid of all of their players from the previous year, and completely rebuilds the team around the pick.

So when those 2 talk about "tanking a season", you're essentially telling guys like Smith, Johnson, Childress, and Williams to not develop any chemistry with each other this year, and not win any games. And you're essentially telling each of those guys to not improve their overall games. And if you're telling them that, why not just trade them all away?

The question is . . how do you tell 4 players that talented to "hold back", and not try to win, when it was obvious that they were very capable of winning games earlier in the season?

As horrible as people say this team is, they forget that the Hawks had 5 games in which they lost by 5 points or less in November alone.

Two of those losses were at the buzzer, on consecutive nights. Another loss happened after thsoe two buzzer losses, in which D-Wade hits an impossible 3 pointer to tie a game and eventually lead the Heat to a 5 point win.

That's a 7 - 1 start if the Hawks hold on ( without Marvin and with Speedy less than 80% ), from a team that is supposed to be so horrible and so far away from contending for anything.

The multiple injuries and the recent play of these guys, have duped 90% of the Hawk fans on this board into believing that this team couldn't possibly win 35 games this season, so why even try?

( By the way, the #8 seed will probably be had by a team with 35 - 40 wins )

And according to them, our GM has done such a bad job, that we don't have enough talent already to not only be a competitive team, but make the playoffs as well.

This board is funny like that.

The GM is horrible, but we have enough talented players that are appealing to other teams, so that we can get better players here.

And the coach is horrible, but we won a game last night without BOTH of our PGs and without our ONLY low post threat against the best team in the East, who were only missing Billups.

And since injuries can't be used as an excuse for the Hawks, it shouldn't be used as an excuse for teams like the Pistons and Clippers, when they're missing one of their top players. ( Billups and Cassell )

LOL . . but when we beat teams like that who are hurting, it's always "oh, but so-and-so didn't play tonight. That's the only reasonw why they won."

It's those kinds of contradictions in beliefs that have me laughing at this board all of the time. It also questions me to even believe that 1/2 of you guys even know anything about basketball. Most of you know ABOUT the game. Most of you definitely have knowlege of basketball history. But at least 1/2 of you know very little about the interworkings of the game and the mentality it takes to play at a high level night in and night out.

Then you see comments in other threads last night like . .

"wow . . who kidnapped the Hawks?"

"why doesn't this team play like this all the time?"

"they're playing with so much energy tonight".

. . . when, if they actually LOOKED at was going wrong with this team the past 2 weeks, they'd see that our horrible play directly coincided with the absence of Josh Smith, on both ends of the floor.

I pointed out right after Christmas, that the Hawks hadn't even broke the 82 point barrier in the 4 games that Smith had missed. And that was mainly due to the fact that he's one of the main ballhandlers in the high post offense that Woody runs in the half court set. Most of Josh's assists go directly to shooters who are wide open. Most of the time, it's JJ. Other times, it's a guy like Salim or Childress.

And the one thing I always criticized Josh for ( grabbing a rebound and immeadiately pushing the ball to the frontcourt, which sometimes leads to dumb turnovers ), was actually the type of thing that this offense was missing. That little thing he was doing, was getting us set up in the halfcourt offense much faster, than what we've seen in the past 2 weeks. And it helped to get us in a rhythm.

But people on this board are so convinced that our problems start with . . .

1. coaching

2. management

3. players not caring or giving up

. . . that they completely overlook the obvious causes of inconsistent play in any sport . . 1. youth, 2. inexperience, and 3. INJURIES

So Lascar, let them believe what they want to believe.

For the FIRST TIME THIS SEASON, Williams, Childress, and Smith were able to contribute to the Hawks in the same game, and even be out on the floor at the same time. And for the first time, Shelden was able to go up against then 2nd wave of PFs on another team, instead of a starting PF.

Combined, those 4 guys had this stat line:

47 points

30 rebounds

14 assists

5 steals

5 blocks

Most importantly, look at the lineup that was on the floor in the 4th quarter.

G - JJ

G - Chill

F - Marvin

F - Smoove

F - Shelden ( until he fouled out with a mintue to go )

That's BK's dream lineup right there.

By the way, Marvin, as Ice Cube would say, "damn near got a triple-double". I'd still like for Marvin to come off the bench, especially seeing the success that Shelden had against non-starters. But I'll give him props for bringing his A-game last night, and raising his overall season average to a C-.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Oden played well against my Vols today, even though we should've won that dang game.

Can't knock Oden for scoring 24 points and grabbing 15 rebounds.

LOL . . but I think I can.

This is Tennessee's starting frontline:

- Duke Crews ( 6 - 7 . . 233 lb freshman, who essentially plays center for the Vols )

- Dane Bradshaw ( 6 - 4 . . 205 lb senior, the heart and soul of our ballclub. He's essentially our version of "Randy Foye" last year at Villanova. Dane is listed as a guard, but he guards Power Forwards on the defense end )

- the other 3 starters are 6 - 2.

frontline players off the bench:

- Wayne Chism ( 6 - 9 . . 245 lb freshman . . . our "bruiser" who sees time at center )

- Ryan Childress ( 6 - 9 . . 238 lb sophomore . . our version of Raef LaFrentz . . he can shoot jumpers

Crews and Chism had the pleasure of guarding Oden most of the game. LOL . . on thing is for sure. Oden won't see any 6 - 7 centers guarding him in the NBA.

Great game by the kid regardless.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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I don't know if you want odds, I'm not going to make any up. I think that the odds of this core ever succeeding together is better if they start learning how to hit big shots and grind wins out together.

I think that if this team disintegrates this year and they all hate each other and the city, even if we do get lucky and get Oden, we would not be that much better off than if they rallied and won 30 something wins this year and contend for the playoffs. I don't know if Joe would still want to be here, he might ask to leave before too long. We might have to start over.

If we rally and keep this team, and just add the Indy pick (PG), we wouldn't have as much talent, but we'd have something to build on. On the other hand, if you tank and miss out on Oden, you've destroyed everything. You'd basically have to blow the team up and start all over. Morale would be destroyed.

I'm not willing to gamble with flat out bad odds, when the results would be absolutely disastrous if we miss out.

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Lascar, please save this, and post this quote EVERY DAY if you have to on this board. These guys have no idea how losing wears on a player. They think that fans have it worse. No one has it worse than the players that actually play the game.

As a Bengals fan, I saw a guy like Takeo Spikes have absolutely NO CONFIDENCE whatsoever in the Bengals organization, after they hired Marvin Lewis. Marvin desperately tried to convince Takeo that they could turn things around, but Takeo was tired of the losing, and left. The same happened wtih Corey Dillon, but we had enough talent to replace Dillon, in Rudi Johnson. At least Dillon got lucky, and was able to be dealt to the Patriots, and win a Super Bowl.

But 4 years later, Takeo is still losing with the Bills, while the Bengals haven't had a sub .500 season since Marvin arrived, and have made the playoffs once ( should've been twice, this year ).

TKO doesn't regret his decision, so he says. But I can understand why he left, and didn't want to wait on a young Bengals team to get to that next level.

The exact same thing could happen to a Josh Childress or to a Josh Smith . . or both, if you tell them that you're not trying to win this year, just so you can have a chance to get a center to help you next year.

Most athletes aren't wired to just "give up". And when you play 1/2 speed, that's when you can get hurt forreal.

[Guest Walter]

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CBA's and Walter's fatal flaw in their "tank" theory, is that they truly believe everything will be OK either this year or the next, if we get an Oden, Durant, or a Noah at the center...The reality is that when teams usually obtain that high of a pick in the draft, they usually get rid of all of their players from the previous year, and completely rebuilds the team around the pick.

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"Usually" "fatal flaws" aren't conditional.

"Usually" a team that tanks is an awful team with no talent or over-the-hill talent who owns the rights to and has no conditions on their pick and who has ownership who will spend to improve. We're not that bad of a team, our talent isn't over-the-hill, we don't own our own pick unless it's top 3, and our ownership situation is the worst in professional sports. There is nothing "usual" about our situation as if what usually happens means jack. Teams don't "usually" have their best player injured and win the draft lottery, but I guess SA should have given the GD pick away or "traded everybody" because it wasn't "usual" how they came about it. Get real.

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So when those 2 talk about "tanking a season", you're essentially telling guys like Smith, Johnson, Childress, and Williams to not develop any chemistry with each other this year, and not win any games. And you're essentially telling each of those guys to not improve their overall games. And if you're telling them that, why not just trade them all away?

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Quit being a silly little straw-man maker. Why use "essentially" unless you aren't going to tell it straight. I'm suggesting telling these players no such thing. I'm telling them,

"Play great, play hard, give it your best. We are making decisions that could negatively affect this season's prospects in hopes of acquiring you guys the important star level post presence talented wing-players and prospects like yourselves need and deserve. Too long have you been asked to play without a true and potentially dominant center. That is our error and we intend to rectify it.

None of our long-term desires relating to you change. In fact, should we acquire this dynamic post player in the top 3 of this year's draft we will NOT have to attempt to acquire one in other ways which likely would have meant a trade of one of you. We are choosing this course in part to reinforce our commitment to you as a unit. That is precisely why we want you to play to your best ability individually and as a team, develop together, and proceed optimism. We cannot promise that the decisions we make in the short-term will make all or any of you very happy. We do not expect competitors to be happy about this. We do expect you to be professional and open minded to our direction. Address us with your concerns. Realize it is because of your potential as a unit, and yet your need for help in the post to reach contention, that we made the decision to (trade Lue for example)..."

Did I say "essentially" anything in that. No. I said it.

The "fatal flaw" in any other "theory" is the odds are even FAR worse. You play the odds or get played.

W

[Guest Walter]

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Oden won't see any 6 - 7 centers guarding him in the NBA.

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You mean like Shelden Williams.Question. Didn't see but the end of the game. Did UT's post players ever score a basket? The box score looks UGLY for them. Wonder why.W

[Iman]

The Hawks have looked pretty bad until last night. But still, as stated above, we looked pretty good until after the Utah loss and on that road trip. Basically it's been while Lue and then Smoove have been out and Joe was off. I dont think we are as good as I thought earlier but I still think we'll win 25-30+ games unless Joe goes down. I've even heard Walter "the Bulldog" say he thinks we have too much talent to have the worst record without some players being benched/injured, etc.So given all that, I just dont get all the posted arguing about tanking. I'll admit that the last few years I've walked away from Philips reasonable pleased when we lost in good games, even the Chicago and Utah games. I rack it up to a learning experience and think maybe that helps our draft position. I also understand draft odds and the importance of us getting a center. And if Joe goes down I'll probably root for our 20-25 wins getting us a shot at Oden. But this is a bad year to tank. We aren't guaranteed to get to keep our pick. We're trying to develop young talent, even if just as a trade assets. Unless Joe goes down, losing would wreck our chemistry and our players trade value. About the only good that would come from us playing bad and having Joe would be at least that would be enough to cause Woodson's firing. I've read all the tanking arguments but it's just too risky since our pick isnt top 8 or so protected. Also, it was mentioned we'll never be more than a lower level playoff team even if a few of our youngster develop into allstars. That could be true but I would hope that if our players improve even close to allstar level, we should be able to move them if the team doesnt have what it takes. I'd bet just that one game last night moved Smoove's value up substantially. Salim and ZaZa are our key disposable players currently to me. We need to find a team that will give us a center or point prospect for some of our disposable assets. Then draft well with the Indy pick, and then move Marvin or Chillz or Shelden (hopefully all will play well the rest of the season and we win 30+ games) for what we need to finish off the team. I'd also rather have Oden but it just ain't gonna happen (unless Joe goes down and/or we get lucky in the lottery). In the meantime, rooting for us to get it back together gives us the best chance to eventually be good. Tanking is just too risky.