Feeling Nos_sturt_damus-like

[exodus]

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Sturt is right on this one.Even with the probabilities...If you have a higher probability of winning than someone else and you don't win... You are unlucky.. (if there is such a word).Just like...If you have a lower probability of winning and you win.. you got Lucky... (if there is such a word).You can't really have one without the other...Moreover, you can't say that somebody with a 3% chance of winning that wins is expected. That's stupid talk. That person with the 3% chance of winning was very fortunate (or Lucky)...

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So your definition of unlucky is the absense of good luck. If that is the case then then the list of unlucky lottery teams is much, much, MUCH longer than the list of lucky teams. My definition of unlucky is bad luck.

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you can't say that somebody with a 3% chance of winning that wins is expected. That's stupid talk. That person with the 3% chance of winning was very fortunate (or Lucky)...

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So if a team that has a 3% chance of winning actually wins the top spot, then that would mean a team with a 5% chance of winning the top spot got unlucky that they didn't win. If that is what you and sturt believe then frankly i am at a complete loss for words.

[Diesel]

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So if a team that has a 3% chance of winning actually wins the top spot, then that would mean a team with a 5% chance of winning the top spot got unlucky that they didn't win.

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If that person with the 5% chance of winning has the highest percent chance of winning... Yes. He is unlucky (if there's such a word).

[exodus]

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If that person with the 5% chance of winning has the highest percent chance of winning

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I see. So if you are in a raffle with 99 other people and you have two tickets (and everyone else has one) then you are unlucky if you don't win. That is certainly an interesting position.

[thesheedera]

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If that person with the 5% chance of winning has the highest percent chance of winning

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I see. So if you are in a raffle with 99 other people and you have two tickets (and everyone else has one) then you are unlucky if you don't win. That is certainly an interesting position.

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I think the distinction that's missing here is whether "unlucky" means anything less than "lucky", or if it means the reverse of "lucky".To me:Lucky = +1Neither lucky nor unlucky = anything less than +1 but greater than -1Unlucky = -1"Unlucky" is at least a full step beyond "devoid of luck" in my opinion.

[Diesel]

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If that person with the 5% chance of winning has the highest percent chance of winning

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I see. So if you are in a raffle with 99 other people and you have two tickets (and everyone else has one) then you are unlucky if you don't win. That is certainly an interesting position.

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If I'm in a raffle that has 100 tickets and I have 25 of those tickets and I lose... Yes, I'm am unlucky. It's no different if I'm in the raffle that has 100 tickets and I have 95 of those and I lose... I'm still unlucky (If that is a word).The point that you miss is that Lucky has the line drawn between winning and not winning. You can't quantify where Luck and Unluck starts can you?? Can you really reach into the situation and tell me where there is a probable chance that you're going to be unlucky if you don't win and if you do win it wasn't luck at all?You're smarter than that aren't you??

[Diesel]

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If that person with the 5% chance of winning has the highest percent chance of winning

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I see.

So if you are in a raffle with 99 other people and you have two tickets (and everyone else has one) then you are unlucky if you don't win.

That is certainly an interesting position.

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If I'm in a raffle that has 100 tickets and I have 25 of those tickets and I lose... Yes, I'm am unlucky. It's no different if I'm in the raffle that has 100 tickets and I have 95 of those and I lose... I'm still unlucky (If that is a word).

The point that you miss is that Lucky has the line drawn between winning and not winning. You can't quantify where Luck and Unluck starts can you?? Can you really reach into the situation and tell me where there is a probable chance that you're going to be unlucky if you don't win and if you do win it wasn't luck at all?

You're smarter than that aren't you??

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Just to add on what I said...

If the Patriots were to have lost to the 1-15 Dolphins would it not have been unlucky??

I'm sure that all the oddsmakers will have the pats set to win the first playoff round.. So if they lose... Isn't it unlucky??

[sturt]

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If that person with the 5% chance of winning has the highest percent chance of winning

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I see. So if you are in a raffle with 99 other people and you have two tickets (and everyone else has one) then you are unlucky if you don't win. That is certainly an interesting position.

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Ummmm... just curious... does the bet apply to disagreements between the two of you as well?*evil smile*

[Diesel]

[exodus]

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You can't quantify where Luck and Unluck starts can you??

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Yes you can. But first of all you have to define what unlucky is. Is it the absense of good luck or is it bad luck?If you flip a coin, call heads and you lose it isn't bad luck. But you didn't get good luck either.

[exodus]

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If that person with the 5% chance of winning has the highest percent chance of winning

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I see.

So if you are in a raffle with 99 other people and you have two tickets (and everyone else has one) then you are unlucky if you don't win.

That is certainly an interesting position.

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Ummmm... just curious... does the bet apply to disagreements between the two of you as well?

*evil smile*

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[AtLaS]

I pretty much consider luck winning something that you don't have control over, because there is an amount of "luck" involved. However, I consider someone "lucky" if they won something in which the odds were stacked against them. I consider unlucky as losing something that you were favored to win.

[Diesel]

So Statistically...Where do you draw the line between Lucky and Unlucky...Wow?? I can't believe you don't see this!

[Diesel]

The other day, I was walking down the street and I found a Nickel...Wasn't that Lucky?Now...Everyday, I'm walking down that same street... I find a nickel...Even though the probability of me finding a nickel walking down that street is high... Maybe the nickel truck goes down the street and Nickels fly of the truck... Everyday..When did me finding the nickel stopped being lucky?

[exodus]

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So Statistically...Where do you draw the line between Lucky and Unlucky...Wow?? I can't believe you don't see this!

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Again you have to define what unlucky is.Is it bad luck or the absence of good luck?

[AHF]

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I consider someone "lucky" if they won something in which the odds were stacked against them.

I consider "unlucky" as losing something that you were favored to win.

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That is the only definition of "lucky" and "unlucky" that is meaningful, IMO. Nicely put.

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The law of averages predicts that your luck is going to turn.

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Actually, with probability the prior outcomes in a series of lotteries have no impact on future probability. Each is an independent event. Thus, if we won 10 lotteries in a row or lost 10 in a row it would not affect our probability of winning the 2006 lottery - 25%.

Here is what wikipedia accurately says about the law of averages:

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The law of averages is a lay term used to express a belief that outcomes of a random event will "even out" over a small sample.

As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a large sample (see the law of large numbers), the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" will occur.

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[thesheedera]

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If I'm in a raffle that has 100 tickets and I have 25 of those tickets and I lose... Yes, I'm am unlucky.

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So you have a 75% chance of losing, you lose, and you think you're unlucky?All that means is that you didn't get lucky. There's middle ground between lucky and unlucky.Walk across the street and find $1 million in a bag halfway across - LuckyWalk across the street and get hit by a bus - Unlucky Walk across the street and nothing happens at all - that's neither lucky nor is it unlucky.

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It's no different if I'm in the raffle that has 100 tickets and I have 95 of those and I lose... I'm still unlucky (If that is a word).

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In this case you have a 5% chance of losing, which is much lower than 75% chance of losing, wich IS VERY DIFFERENT.95% chance of winning and you lose - that's bad luck.25% chance of winning and you lose - that's normal.The line you draw is somehere around 50%.If you have a 51% chance of winning and you lose you're slightly unlucky.

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The point that you miss is that Lucky has the line drawn between winning and not winning.

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Not true at all. First of all sports are not games of chance. You have a direct influence on the outcome. You can be very unlucky and win a game. You can be very lucky and lose a game. If you're supposed to win and something unlucky occurs that cause you to lose, you are unlucky. If you play bad and lose, that's not unluck.If you're supposed to win statistically speaking in a game of chance and you lose, you're unlucky, and you're unlucky to the degree with which you were supposed to win.95% and 25% are VERY different odds of winning, therefore you are more unlucky to lose with a 95% chance of winning than with a 25% chance of winning.

[Diesel]

American Heritage Dictionary states Unlucky is:

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# Not producing the desired outcome; disappointing.

[exodus]

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That is the only definition of "lucky" and "unlucky" that is meaningful, IMO. Nicely put.

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That would be the opinion of the vast majority of people but obviously not sturt and Diesel.

[Diesel]

I like your analogy, but in it, there is no expected outcome in walking across the street unless you want to suggest that the expected outcome is getting to the other side. In which case, you were lucky!

[thesheedera]

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American Heritage Dictionary states Unlucky is:

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# Not producing the desired outcome; disappointing.

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So if I desire to be Miss America, but it never happens for me, I'm unlucky? I don't think that's a good definition for the word.

Other definitions:

1 : marked by adversity or failure

2 : likely to bring misfortune : inauspicious

3 : having or meeting with misfortune

What's clear to me is that "unlucky" is interpreted very differently by different people, including dictionariasts.