Stock market crash


exodus
 Share

Recommended Posts

I wasn't saying that gold doesn't appreciate.. In a stagnant market gold looks very good. However, when the market is moving... Gold will slink back to just a safe stock. Can you make money with gold.. Sure. However, if you follow that oz of Gold oz of stock (I wouldn't use Google per se... but would try to identify a stock that has the potential to rise... like a GSK or a large biotech firm that has global appeal... Astrazenaca)...the largest stocks usually don't move much unless the market drops or some new technology comes from it.... If you follow Google, they're due for a rise... simply because they dropped. It's a good time for them, but I wouldn't stay there once the market equilibrates.

Yeah I was actually referring to tmac13's comment on gold but, the area I bolded was exactly my point anyway. I'm not saying buy gold instead of stocks necessarily but in an economic time like now its an option to consider.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 43
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

If the market goes down big today i will probably buy without stops. I don't think the indexes can fall much further although i may be foolish to think that. I just don't see the DOW falling far below 8000, the NAS falling below 1500 or the S&P falling below 800. If i am wrong then i'll just ride it out.

I won't be buying on margin though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I remember actually having a conversation with Chillz on here about it.

Soon as I read that statement I knew there was an "I told you so" moment coming.

I remember CHillz Scarfing at it because everytime I mention apple he scarfs..

Ha ha. I like to eat apples too...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually...

I wasn't kidding... buy gold (GLD), silver (SLV), or any of that other stuff. When currencies go down, the people go to the safe haven of gold. I also invested in Yamana Gold (AUY). And ofcourse I don't invest with my money, I'm still 16. But I tell my parents here and there what they should really be buying, and at this point, it's clearly idiotic (harsh word though) not to have any gold stocks.--Libid21

He did explain. Did you read?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8000 was the number I was waiting on also. I think the bottom has been hit.

At this point i can think we can safely say that was a short term bottom. Of course it might get tested at some point.

I pay more attention to the S&P and NAS than the DOW since the DOW is only 30 stocks. If the S&P gets around 1100 in the near future i might look to sell and just sit on cash awhile. I can't see a sustained rally in the middle of a recession.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Checked the 401K, down 23% on the year even including $$ I have put in. Ouch.

I put in the order to cash out my 401k at the close today. It is annoying that you can't get 401k orders executed when you put them in.

I am down on mine but not quite that much. My company stock (CVH) is a big reason for that because i couldn't sell it when it was flying high. A big percentage (too much) of our 401k goes directly to CVH. It was over 60 too start the year then the bad news started hitting. when the window to sell finally opened i sold it at 38 and it is 28 now. It hit 19 on friday. Yuk.

I was cash except for my company stock in my 401k until not long ago. I tried to time the bottom and was obviously too early losing a quick 10% before i pulled out again on 10/3. My timing was a little better there. WHEW

I think cash is king right now. If the market goes up significantly i will probably be looking to short (shorting the open would have paid big today but i didn't have the guts). If the market retests the lows i will be looking to buy again.

Very rough market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I got stopped out of my trades. I really thought there would be more follow through today, at least until lunch. i missed a good chance to sell at the open. Bummer.

WHEW! I feel like i dodged a bullet by selling everything yesterday. I didn't feel like taking any chances since we are on a downtrend and the market made such a huge move off the low. I really didn't expect the market to dive so quickly though.

Now the question is .... will the market make a new low?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WHEW! I feel like i dodged a bullet by selling everything yesterday. I didn't feel like taking any chances since we are on a downtrend and the market made such a huge move off the low. I really didn't expect the market to dive so quickly though.

Now the question is .... will the market make a new low?

Huge rally after the big drop this morning, Dow finishes up 400 - an 800 swing today. The volatility in the market is unprecedented and just off the charts...Personally, I don't have the stomach to get into anything short right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Huge rally after the big drop this morning, Dow finishes up 400 - an 800 swing today. The volatility in the market is unprecedented and just off the charts...Personally, I don't have the stomach to get into anything short right now.

I bought back in small near the low. I am not convinced it was the bottom in spite of the record 81 registered on the volatility index.

Since we are in a recession and we don't know whether the goverment steps taken can remedy the financial crisis i think that will put a cap on the upside for awhile. I will be looking to bail at the first sign of weakness.

Shorting is pretty scary when the market is way down like this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I bought back in small near the low. I am not convinced it was the bottom in spite of the record 81 registered on the volatility index.

Since we are in a recession and we don't know whether the goverment steps taken can remedy the financial crisis i think that will put a cap on the upside for awhile. I will be looking to bail at the first sign of weakness.

Shorting is pretty scary when the market is way down like this.

I read a quote from an old stock market guru the other day (not sure which) but to paraphrase:

"when people are greedy, I get afraid....when people are afraid, I get greedy" Obviously that's a derivative of the old buy low/sell high addage. Personally, I've been out of the market and in bonds for some time (with my limited funds). But I'm fixing to get back into a solid mutual fund here shortly (I'm not smart enough to design my own portfolio) - once the wild swings settle a bit. I think Obama's election will steady the markets since he seems to be a Reagan-like leader who instills confidence and optimism.

Edited by DJlaysitup
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I read a quote from an old stock market guru the other day (not sure which) but to paraphrase:

"when people are greedy, I get afraid....when people are afraid, I get greedy" Obviously that's a derivative of the old buy low/sell high addage. Personally, I've been out of the market and in bonds for some time (with my limited funds). But I'm fixing to get back into a solid mutual fund here shortly (I'm not smart enough to design my own portfolio) - once the wild swings settle a bit. I think Obama's election will steady the markets since he seems to be a Reagan-like leader who instills confidence and optimism.

I think there is a lot of big money on the sidelines that is waiting for the same thing. We dont know how severe the recession will be or how long it will last. We don't know what effect the gov't measures will have. So i think a lot of people are just going to wait awhile.

I think we can already see that the trading range is going to tighten up. Thursdays action had all the signs of a climactic low yet there was little follow through on Friday. I think the S&P 500 will trade between 850 and 1050 for awhile.

If you are looking to invest long term oil is looking good. The price of oil has dropped huge but everyone knows in the end it will go back up. You can use stock DBO to trade the price of oil.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Im not in the market, but i have been following it closely, and also a fan of Nassim Taleb (black swan, fooled by randomness). I dont see the market really bouncing back as strong as it bottoms out. The financials from companies and all the indicators show a pretty deep gash in the economy, globally. Even China, (i spent 2 years purchasing/exporting there) forecasted growth is down from the 8% official 11% unofficial growth to like 4% or so. Thats incredible, because i left one year ago and the construction projects and everything were still full swing. I think the barriers for entry into the manufacturing/export of products has risen in china, as over the last 3yrs i saw factories consolidate/close in the face of competition (oversaturated). They will look to diversify more away export/manufacturing growth and face challenges like increase in Govt Regulation/Currency value. Even banks in the Gulf Countries that are usually overflowing with capital said they lost like 33% of their liquidity, as foreign investments returned home due to liquidity issues.

As for what mrhonline said, the US economy is on the decline, but its still gigantic. China and Indias growth will increasingly indicate the status of the Global Econ from now on, hopefully they can shoulder some of the weight to maintain growth worldwide. But saying this, id still choose and have chosen to live stateside...you just cant beat the laws/security and benefits living stateside. Plus, its relatively cheap here.

(gradually i have been moving away from market investment and towards small business/personal investments, studied finance in school).

But heck ya, learn chinese so you will be able to understand your grandkids! I am :p

Edited by hussamga
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good analysis H. I have also been toying with the idea of fooling with a little tech/green portfolio. It would basically be an attempt to catch lightning in a bottle. I figure the big NASDAQ rise and fall was too internet-based. But science/technology may make a big comeback once the administration changes. I may take about $5000 and invest in very cheap starters. Have to do one's homework to hopefully weed out the companies that just go public to rake in some money. Still, it would be nice to have a few cheap shares of the next Microsoft.

Actually - the Microsoft example is an exaggeration - but if one could catch 2 or 3 of 10.....1-3 dollar stocks that go to 20-30 over a few years it might be worth the gamble. One would do. Not being an insider - it will basically be a crapshoot though. WTF though - give me something to do....plus...with a nearly free internet stock trading account...it would be an interesting thing for a youngster to do since they wouldn't worry about losing minor money early in their earning lives.

Edited by DJlaysitup
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.