Hoopinion: Season-Long Theme: Backcourt Defense

[Hawksquawk]

Previously: 11/10/09, 10/30/09

This edition, being overdue, will be more thorough in its breakdowns than previous posts on this subject.

Let's start with Mike Bibby as he's (relatively) easy to break down in this fashion since he plays point guard exclusively.

Mike Bibby	Def Eff	Poss
w/ Evans	0.25	8
w/ Crawford	0.985	131
w/ Teague & Crawford	1	13
w/ Johnson	1.009	1420
w/ Josh Smith & Horford	1.022	1809
on court	1.042	2319
w/ Josh Smith or Horford	1.071	432
w/ Crawford & Johnson	1.12	739
w/ neither Josh Smith or Horford	1.346	78
w/ Johnson & West	1.353	17

I suspect the explanation for the Hawks allowing 5.6 fewer points per 100 possessions when Mike Bibby is on the court compared to when he's if off the court is as simple as Bibby playing 78% of his possessions with both Josh Smith and Al Horford on the floor with him.

Joe Johnson	Def Eff	Poss
w/ Teague & Crawford	0.98	102
w/ Crawford & West	1	16
w/ Bibby	1.009	1420
as a 2	1.063	2362
on court	1.075	3216
as a 3	1.103	841
w/ Bibby & Crawford	1.12	739
w/ Crawford	1.139	897
w/ Teague	1.292	24
w/ Bibby & West	1.353	17

Earlier in the season, the Hawks were more effective defensively with Johnson as the biggest of three guards than when he played in a two-guard lineup. That is no longer the case.

For completists only: The Hawks have allowed 9 points on 6 possessions when Johnson has played point guard and 4 points on 4 possessions when Johnson has played power forward.

Jamal Crawford	Def Eff	Poss
w/ Teague & West	0.643	14
w/ Bibby	0.985	131
w/ West	1	32
w/ Johnson & West	1	16
w/ Bibby & Teague	1	13
w/ Teague	1.077	597
as a 2	1.078	1591
on court	1.099	2682
w/ Bibby & Johnson	1.12	739
w/ Evans	1.121	132
as a 1	1.132	1078
w/ Johnson	1.139	897

The Hawks allow 8.8 more points per 100 possessions when Crawford is on the court than when he is off the court. The Hawks score 2.3 more points per 100 possessions when Crawford is on the court than when he is off the court.

It's not a case of Bibby hoarding all the defensive possessions when Horford and Josh Smith are on the floor either. True, only 38% of Crawford's possessions come with both Smith and Horford on the floor but Smith and Horford are significantly worse defensively when Crawford is on the floor with them.

Josh Smith and Horford	Def Eff	Poss
w/o Crawford	0.996	1265
w/ Crawford	1.088	1029

This is why, despite his good season, I didn't take his All-Star case seriously.

Jamal Crawford	Def Eff	Poss
w/ Josh Smith & Horford	1.088	1029
w/ Josh Smith or Horford	1.095	958
w/ neither Josh Smith or Horford	1.121	695

In the minutes he's gotten, Jeff Teague (both by eye and by these numbers) has demonstrated some defensive talent. I suspect that will bode well for him next year as he should begin the process of replacing Mike Bibby at the point.

Jeff Teague	Def Eff	Poss
w/ Crawford & West	0.643	14
w/ Evans	0.774	31
w/ Crawford & Johnson	0.98	102
w/ Bibby & Crawford	1	13
on court	1.049	804
w/ Crawford	1.077	597
w/ West	1.143	14
w/ Johnson	1.292	24

All the Mo Evans combinations appear in the tables above. To refrain from redundancy, I'll simple provide his defensive work by position.

Mo Evans	Def Eff	Poss
as a 2	1.023	176
on court	1.12	1367
as a 3	1.133	1144
as a 4	1.152	46

There's a discrepancy of 1 possession between the on court and the positional breakdown but I can't find it in the 143* different 5-man units the Hawks have used so far this season.

*Maybe there are, in fact, 144 different 5-man units the Hawks have used so far this season.

Mario West	Def Eff	Poss
on court	1.043	94
off court	1.068	4099

The numbers don't lie.

Below are a couple of tables that don't fall under the category of "backcourt defense" but I'll include in this post as I still have the master spreadsheet (which will be out-of-date again in 36 hours) open.

First, Marvin Williams by position:

Marvin Williams	Def Eff	Poss
as a 3	1.02	2123
on court	1.034	2503
as a 4	1.11	375

The Hawks allowed 4 points on 3 possessions with Marvin at center and 4 points on 2 possessions with Marvin playing alongside one guard, Joe Smith, Horford, and Pachulia.

Finally, the various post combinations:

Name	Def Eff	Poss
Horford & Pachulia	0.941	205
Josh Smith & Horford	1.042	2350
Team	1.068	4193
Joe Smith & Horford	1.11	164
Josh Smith & Pachulia	1.115	462
Joe Smith & Pachulia	1.212	339

The Hawks are allowing 0.975 points per possession with Jason Collins on the floor. 82 of the 122 possessions for which Collins has been on the floor have also featured Randolph Morris and/or Othello Hunter. Sounds like garbage time to me.

Jason Collins	Def Eff	Poss
garbage time	0.926	82
not garbage time	1.075	40

Questions, comments, and corrections welcome as always from those of you who've made it this far.

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[jerrywest]

*I predicted Bibby+Craw defense would be one of the worst defense in the history of the NBA. Shockingly, according to these numbers, it has been the best defensive backcourt.

* Teague and West's numbers are severely skewed by garbage time stats.

* It's astounding how terrible Bibby's defense is without Smoove & Horf.

* Crawford's defense on-off court discrepancy is aweful. I just calculated Joe's defense without crawford and it looks like his defense takes a nosedive 8.9 pts when Crawford is with him. Part of that has to be because JJ plays 3.

* Horf+Zaza has been awesome.

* Marvin gives 102, Joe gives 110 and Evans gives 113 points in every 100 possession at 3. Looks like Craw @2 brings down Joe & Evans. I wonder how does Marvin+Craw look on defense.

* Teague's defense is probably much better than these numbers show, because he plays with Craw most of the way and Joe seems to sleep walk when he is with Teague (1.292 Yak!). It looks like Teague has the physical ability to play all NBA defense. Mentally, who knows.

[Crank]

I think its much too hard to try and simplify Crawfords numbers defensively or the majority of the backcourt .

He plays multiple positions,comes off the bench and is on the court regardless of the situation. Doing garbage time hes on the court as well as if the game is tight. You have to factor in pace as well as game situations . To simply think you can just count possessions ...

[jerrywest]

He plays multiple positions,comes off the bench and is on the court regardless of the situation. Doing garbage time hes on the court as well as if the game is tight. You have to factor in pace as well as game situations . To simply think you can just count possessions ...

Pace is not an issue because the stat is on per 100 possessions.

Garbage time is an issue for Teague and West because a significant portion is garbage. For Crawford, there is sufficient data to ignore any skews created by garbage time.