Hawksquawk 2012 Summer Dynasty Draft - 2013 Midseason Review

[Admin]

I'm not saying EWA is the best answer, but we would need some sort of metric, otherwise we can all argue our team is the best with these stacked rosters. And yes I got my numbers from the Hollinger stats.

[Admin]

Cap that's a pretty good team with no big negative players so that helps a lot. And yeah Rudy should get a lot better in Toronto.

[coachx]

These may not be where Dolfon got his, but : http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/sort/VORPe I got mine from here

Thanks, I don't have insider.

[coachx]

I do not like this metric at all. Win share is better........and I'm not a big fan of it either in the context we are trying to use these metrics for. Its worse then having a computer pick the BCS Championship game. It would be like having a fantasy draft for NCAA football.......then use metric stats of players performance from their old team, vs. different competition, in different systems, to predict win / loss results for their new team. It sounds completely crazy to think that this should carry the weight that some of posters give it.

Here is my squad through a computer none the less:

Curry 7.9 / Miller 2.9 / Knight 1.3

Harden 13.0 / Crawford 4.7

Deng 4.1 / Sefolsha 1.3 / Barnes .7

Aldridge 8.4 / Biyombo -1.0

Jordan 4.3 / Hawes 2.9 / Ezeli -1

49.5 X .7 = 34.65

To expose just how inaccurate this is, after all 16 teams tally their EWA we will add up all the wins and losses and see how they equal out............b/c at the end of the day the total # of wins in this league should equal the total number of losses.

Edited February 15, 2013 by coachx

[AHF]

I do not like this metric at all. Win share is better........and I'm not a big fan of it either in the context we are trying to use these metrics for. Its like having a computer pick the BCS Championship game.

Here is my squad through a computer none the less:

Curry 7.9 / Miller 2.9 / Knight 1.3

Harden 13.0 / Crawford 4.7

Deng 4.1 / Sefolsha 1.3 / Barnes .7

Aldridge 8.4 / Biyombo -1.0

Jordan 4.3 / Hawes 2.9 / Ezeli -1

49.5 X .7 = 34.65

To expose just how inaccurate this is, after all 16 teams tally their EWA we will add up all the wins and losses and see how they equal out............b/c at the end of the day the total # of wins in this league should equal the total number of losses.

Which you know it won't because the league is composed largely of the most positive EWA players and omits the negative EWA players which makes the EWA for the entire league balance (or should) -- not a league of the top 50% of players.

[coachx]

Which you know it won't because the league is composed largely of the most positive EWA players and omits the negative EWA players which makes the EWA for the entire league balance (or should) -- not a league of the top 50% of players.

Exactly......that is my point.

The article I linked above states that even when you use every player in the NBAs EWA stat you get about 5.5 more wins then you should......at least that is using proper context of players playing with their actual teamates, in the actual system they play in, with the actual rotation of mpg that is implemented, and with the actual coaching instruction they get and its still off.

Edited February 15, 2013 by coachx

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

WIN SHARES!!! That's the metric I was trying to think of when I did mine... I was trying to remember what the heck that stat was called again and where it was, but then saw EWA on ESPN and decided to use that instead. lol yeah, win shares is a better metric than EWA. Oh well...

[Admin]

I don't buy into win shares either.

[AHF]

Here is my team, for what the EWA numbers are worth:

Coach: Larry "Legend" Bird


PG: Tony Parker* (11.3) / Eric Bledsoe (4.8) / Rodney Stuckey (no double counting)
SG: Kevin Martin (4.3) / Bradley Beal (1.4) / Rodney Stuckey (1.3) / Dion Waiters (1.5)
SF: Andre Iguodala (3.8) / Jeff Green (0.8)
PF: Kevin Garnett* (6.3) / Carlos Boozer (4.2)
C: Dwight Howard* (7.2) / Enes Kanter (2.2) / Chris Kaman (2.9)

* = 2013 All-Star as of 2.15.13

Total EWA: 52

70% of EWA: 36.4

* * * * *

Here is my team's narrative:

Plus Picks:

Tony Parker has been an absolute stud, averaging 21 and 8. His efficiency is great as well: 24.5 PER, 8.2 WS and nearly .600 TS%. No doubt All-Star.

Eric Bledsoe looks like a beast on both ends of the floor. 18.9 PER. Per 36 - 16 pp36, 5.5 ap36, 5 rpg36, 3 sp36. My PG position is rock solid.

Carlos Boozer 18 and 11 per 36 with a 17 PER. Very happy with that production from where he was drafted. Potential replacement All-Star.

On The Money:

Kevin Martin has done for OKC what he was expected to do for this team. Add efficient scoring. With a .617 TS%, he has been extremely efficient which is a huge reason OKC has not lost a step without Harden.

Kevin Garnett keeps bringing it. A 19.5 PER gives the numbers but even with Rondo down he continues to lead Boston towards the playoffs. Another All-Star season from a guy who remains one of the best interior defenders in the NBA.

Bradley Beal and Dion Waiters are the works in progress expected. Beal started the season cold but has shot over 45% from the floor in 2013 and over 50% from 3pt range, and looks like a future starter for this league. Waiters is a scoring machine for Cleveland (>17 points per 36); he remains raw but is slightly ahead of where I expected him to be. Beal and Waiters are players with more future impact.

Chris Kaman. The Caveman is bringing 18.8 points and 9.4 boards per 36. Perfect as a reserve and fill-in starter.

Enes Kanter. While he waits his time for Jefferson to leave, Kanter is bringing > 16 points and 10 rebounds per 36. At 54% from the floor and 75% from the line he looks like a plus scorer and rebounder for the future.

Behind the Curve:

Dwight Howard. His play is down as he has struggled through injury after injury issue this season. On the plus side, you don't frequently get 16 points, 12 rebounds and 2 blocks per game from your top disappointment. All-Star season but not what was expected for where I picked him. He remains the best option at the shallowest position in the league if he can recover 80% of his prime health.

Andre Iguodala and Rodney Stuckey have the same tale. They continue to bring the versatility (Iggy - 13 ppg, 5 rpg, 5 apg, 1.5 spg; Stuckey 11 ppg, 4 apg, 3 rpg) but are suffering through the worst shooting seasons of their careers. Regression to the mean should lead to better second halves for both players.

Jeff Green is the one pick I would like to write off. He is putting up 15 points and 5 rebounds per 36 on .540 TS% which makes for an OK reserve but he doesn't have the promise that my other young players have. In short - he is too easily replaceable for my team.

Overall Team Assessment

I still like the way this team is constructed. We have plenty of shooters and plenty of rebounders across the roster. The starting lineup has plus defenders on the perimeter (Parker), on the wing (Iggy), and on the interior (Dwight and KG). This team can stretch the floor and score in the post on offense and can stick their man and grab the board on defense. The only position with a concern about depth is SF. Great vets in Parker and KG to set the right attitude for the team and up and coming studs for the future.

[Admin]

I think there's one called wins produced that's supposed to be better.

[Guest]

Anybody wants to help out the little lady with hers? I am sick with the flu.What's EWA

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

HC - Rick Carlisle

EWA, PER, WS

C - Andrew Bogut - 0, 17.2, 0.7

PF - David West - 7.4, 19.97, 6.2

SF - Carmelo Anthony - 10.9, 23.85, 6.1

SG - Demar DeRozan - 3.8, 14.39, 2.7

PG - Deron Williams - 6.3, 17.9, 5.3

PG - Mike Conley - 5.0, 17.09, 5.3

SG - JR Smith - 4.2, 15.54, -0.4

SF - Tayshaun Prince - 1.9, 12.77, 2.6

PF - Glen Davis - 2.0, 15.27, 1.0

C - Tyler Zeller - 0.3, 11.06, 1.3

F - Channing Frye - 0, 14.92, 3.8

G/F - Anthony Morrow, 0.3, 12.65, 0.7

PF - Tyler Hansbrough - 1.6, 15.21, 2.8

Totals: 43.7 (EWA), 15.99 (aPER), 38.1 (WS)

Number of wins based on EWA discounted by 30% due to strength of teams: 30.59

So my total of 29 before was wrong due to human error of not checking my guys that have been injured. Guess it does pay to do your homework!

Edited February 15, 2013 by PSSSHHHRRR87

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

Anybody wants to help out the little lady with hers? I am sick with the flu. What's EWA

It's a Hollinger analytic on ESPN.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/sort/VORPe

Stands for "Estimated Wins Added".

Edited February 15, 2013 by PSSSHHHRRR87

[AHF]

Anybody wants to help out the little lady with hers? I am sick with the flu.

What's EWA

Coach - George Karl

PG - Kyrie Irving (8.4) /Kemba Walker (6.9)

SG - Marshon Brooks (0.8)/George Hill (4.7)

SF - Kawhi Leonard (2.8)/Thaddeus Young (6.1)/Corey Brewer (2.6)

PF - Dirk Nowitski (1.9)/Kris Humphries (1.0)/DeJuan Blair(1.3)

C - Tyson Chandler (8.1)/Meyers Leonard(0.5)/Jordan Hill(1.8)

EWA: 46.9

70% of EWA: 32.8

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

http://hawksquawk.net/community/topic/369187-summer-dynasty-draft-is-on/page-83

For roster reference, scroll down to Dolf's post with the chart.

Edited February 15, 2013 by PSSSHHHRRR87

[Guest]

Thanks AHF.

[Mutombolievable]

Love Greivis Vasquez at the 202nd pick! Here is my team with their EWA. I'm not sure if I did this right so correct me if I'm wrong.

Stan Van Gundy

Westbrook (11.3) /Vasquez (5.3) /Isaih Thomas (3)

Shumpert (-.1) /Monta Ellis (4)

Wilson Chandler(0.5) /Marvin Williams (-.6 YAYYY) /Al Farouq Aminu (2)

J Smoove (6.3) /Verejao (5) /Ed Davis (3.7)

Brook Lopez (9.9) /Asik (3.7)

Total EWA = 54

70% of EWA = 37.8

[lethalweapon3]

The 2012-13 Lethal Pelicans (18-34) were built upon the precept of patience. After one half-season, that patience is already being severely tested.

This team started off bad from the outset, partly due to a season-ending injury to starting swingman Brandon Rush. For the first month, fans were eagerly anticipating the returns of first-round pick Ricky Rubio, starting power forward Amar’e Stoudemire, and defensive reserve Luc Richard Mbah a Moute to action. But not one of these players emerged to achieve expected contribution levels in their first seasons with the Pelicans. Beyond the challenges of establishing a steady rotation, family/bereavement leave for Head Coach Kevin McHale also disrupted the process of building cohesion with the roster.

Most disconcerting for Pelican fans, through 50-plus games, is that there’s no evidence that the kids will be alright. 5^th-round pick Thomas Robinson has shown flashes with his rebounding, but he’s already beginning to get that Stromile Swift/Derrick Williams/Tyrus Thomas smell about him. Robinson was selected one pick ahead of the vastly improved DeAndre Jordan. As expected, 7^th-round selection Jonas Valanciunas plays with boundless energy but is fouling too much to have any consistent impact on the floor, and missed 20 games with a broken finger. Kevin Seraphin continues to be a black hole for any passing in the offensive game plan, and his shot has regressed while he’s turning the ball over more.

The sluggish development in the frontcourt has forced Marc Gasol (13^th in NBA for BPG, 7^th for PF/G) to stay glued beneath the basket on defense. While fouls are being managed by limiting his low-post touches, Gasol sports a career-high 3.8 APG and a top 10 free throw shooting percentage (87.4 FT%), highest among all NBA centers.

With Rubio being brought along slowly, Jeff Teague (career-high 14.2 PPG, 10^th in NBA for SPG and Assists) and Luke Ridnour (career-high 12.3 PPG) have filled in admirably. Unfortunately, Teague was selected in the 8^th round one pick ahead of the likely Rookie of the Year in Damian Lillard (and Rush taken one pick before All-Star Jrue Holiday in Round 6), leading many Pelican fans to wonder aloud who is the clueless GM calling the shots around here. To diversify the Pelican offense, the younger point guards must become stronger finishers at the rim.

Mike Dunleavy is shooting sharp (8^th in NBA for 3FG%) and providing more than adequate value for a 13^th-round pick, starting in place of the injured Rush. With a heavy dose of minutes, Nicolas Batum (career-high 15.3 PPG, 6^th in 3FGA, 10^th in TO/G) has picked up the scoring load, but has been unable to maintain his efficiency from prior seasons. Courtney Lee has not converted the long-distance shot like in previous seasons, but has found other ways to contribute, particularly on defense.

An unsteady backcourt and a few Not (Yet?) Ready for Prime Time Players up front adds up to a 18-34 record thus far for the L-Pels.

LETHAL PELICANS

aPER: 14.3

70% EWA: 18.4

sigmaWS: 27.9

PLAYER (Tm/Overall Draft Pick) [PER/EWA/WS]

RICKY RUBIO (1^st/15^th) [13.34/0.8/0.7]

MARC GASOL (2^nd/18th) [19.07/7.4/7.0]

AMARE STOUDEMIRE (3^rd/47^th) [22.13/2.4/1.9]

NICOLAS BATUM (4^th/50^th) [16.44/5.9/4.3]

THOMAS ROBINSON (5^th/79^th) [10.86/-0.3/-0.2]

BRANDON RUSH (6^th/82^nd) [12.03/0.0/0.0] - injured

JONAS VALANCIUNAS (7^th/111^th) [14.18/1.8/1.5]

JEFF TEAGUE (8^th/114^th) [16.34/4.5/4.0]

KEVIN SERAPHIN (9^th/143^rd) [10.11/-0.8/-0.3]

COURTNEY LEE (10^th/146^th) [11.40/0.5/1.9]

LUC RICHARD MBAH A MOUTE (11^th/175^th) [10.49/-0.4/0.6]

MIKE DUNLEAVY (13^th/207^th) [15.39/2.8/3.4]

LUKE RIDNOUR (14^th/210^th) [13.90/2.2/3.1]

Rotation:

Teague/Rubio/Ridnour

Dunleavy/Lee/Rush (inj.)

Batum/Mbah a Moute

Stoudemire/Robinson/Seraphin

Gasol/Valanciunas

~lw3

[Admin]

Automatic message This topic has been moved from "HomeCourt" to "Fantasy Leagues".

[HawkItus]

Just have to say the draft ticker is making me jealous. I wish I would have signed up for this. Anybody want a co-owner let me know.