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Chad Ford and Jay Bilas break down the top Cs in the draft


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http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9416622/2013-nba-draft-chad-ford-jay-bilas-debate-draft-top-centers?addata=2009_insdr_mod_nba_xxx_xxx

In our new ESPN Insider series, Chad Ford and Jay Bilas are evaluating the top prospects at every position ahead of the June 27 NBA draft. They'll answer a few key questions and provide their top 10 prospect rankings for each position. Today, they take a look at centers.

PFs | SFs | PGs | SG | Ford's Mock Draft 5.0

1. Should the Cavs take Nerlens Noel with the No. 1 pick?

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Ford: Yes. But with two caveats. First, I'm assuming that Cavs' doctors think there won't be any long-term consequences from Noel's ACL surgery. If there are serious doubts about that, the answer becomes no. Second, I'm assuming GM Chris Grant can convince owner Dan Gilbert to continue to be patient in the rebuilding process.

To me, Noel has the most upside of anyone in the draft and is a perfect long-term fit with Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters. His elite athleticism and shot-blocking abilities could anchor their defense some day. The fact that he isn't a polished offensive player matters less because the Cavs already have a couple of those on their roster. You think the Heat wouldn't love to have a healthy Noel on their roster? Look at the impact Chris Andersen has had. Noel should be much better. Finally, there's upside in being patient; if Noel doesn't play or only plays a small role next season, the Cavs will be well positioned to land a high pick in the 2014 NBA draft -- which is a much stronger draft. Adding a fifth piece to the puzzle could set Cleveland up for the next five to seven years.

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Bilas: No. Noel is rightly under consideration as the top pick because of his defensive ability and potential, but he is not without significant questions. Noel is not a scorer and is not healthy. Noel has not played following the season-ending ACL injury he suffered in February, and his development has been set back.

He has the chance to be an elite defender, both as a shot-blocker and high-energy worker, but he is of slight build, and his offensive limitations could dictate that Cleveland take Otto Porter Jr., Ben McLemore or Victor Oladipo. Noel is a hard worker, and while his offense has improved, he still has much work left to do.

2. Is Alex Len a safer pick than Nerlens Noel?

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Ford: No. If you are talking about basketball skills, then yes. Len is much more polished offensively. He has a soft touch around the basket and can step out and hit the 15-foot jump shot. He also isn't far behind Noel on the defensive end. Len is a good rebounder and shot-blocker and is very mobile for someone his size. So yes, he's less of a project than Noel.

However, he too has serious injury issues that make me question just how "safe" he is. Len suffered a stress fracture in his ankle and, like Noel, is walking on crutches. While he's projected to be back on the court sooner than Noel, stress fractures are a major red flag for players of his size. And for those of you complaining about Noel's weight, Len weighed just 225 pounds at the draft combine -- and he's taller. With Noel up to 218, that's not a big gap. While everyone is wringing their hands about Noel, they ought to have similar concerns and worries about Len. I think that Len is more "NBA ready" than Noel. But safer? I'm not so sure about that.

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Bilas: No. Len is bigger and stronger and is a true 7-footer, but he is not a sure thing in this draft. Len has very good mobility, rebounds well and can block shots. He also has the touch to step away and hit an open jump shot, but the majority of his offense in college came from post-ups or buckets around the rim. He is a good offensive rebounder, but needs to get tougher physically and mentally. Both Len and Noel need to develop, but Noel is the better defender and rebounder.

3. Is Steven Adams a better NBA prospect than Mason Plumlee, Gorgui Dieng and Jeff Withey?

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Ford: Yes. If the question is about who is the better "prospect," I strongly believe in this answer. Is Adams currently as good of a player as those three college veterans? Obviously no. Plumlee, Dieng and Withey are all three to four years older than Adams and have much more basketball experience. So if you're looking for a guy to play important minutes now, Plumlee, Dieng or Withey might be a better choice.

But when you factor in that Adams is just 19 years old and has very limited playing experience (the competition wasn't great in New Zealand), I'm very bullish on his future. As freshmen, Plumlee averaged 3.7 PPG and 3.1 RPG, Dieng averaged 5.7 PPG and 4.4 RPG and Withey posted 1.3 PPG and 1.4 RPG. In contrast, Adams averaged 7.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 2.0 BPG in his first year. He also has the best combination of NBA strength and athleticism of the group. Plumlee is a better leaper and Dieng might be more fluid, but no one has the combination of strengths that Adams possesses. He's going to take time to develop, but I think he has the best shot of eventually becoming a starter on a good NBA team.

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Bilas: Yes. Though all three are better than Adams right now -- especially Plumlee -- Adams has the chance to be better in the future. Adams is young in the game, very athletic and has a body and frame (7-foot, 255 pounds) that is NBA-ready right now. He is strong and physical and sets excellent screens. Adams also is a good rebounder, as he averaged more than 10 rebounds per 40 minutes. Plus, he can defend in the post and challenge shots. He is a good athlete for his size and has a nice touch.

Adams really struggled from the free throw line, but he shoots the ball well and has the potential to become a decent free throw shooter. Right now, Adams is behind Plumlee, Dieng and Withey, but shouldn't be for long.

4. Will Lucas Nogueira have a better NBA career than Rudy Gobert?

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Ford: Yes. Both players are incredibly long -- Gobert has a 7-foot-9 wingspan, Nogueira a 7-6 wingspan -- and will be great rim protectors. Both players need to add strength and polish their offensive games. The difference, to me, is how active Nogueira is, whereas Gobert is a relatively passive player. Nogueira is certainly inconsistent and can be all over the place, but when he dials it in, he's a very disruptive player.

Gobert also has that potential, but I don't see it show up as often. Both players should be solid shot-blockers at the next level if they continue to hone their games and add strength, but I'd give the edge to Nogueira.

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Bilas: Yes. It is really hard to tell because both are young and unproven. Gobert is not a great athlete and has a long way to go in his development, but he does have a crazy-long wingspan that is almost cartoonish. However, Gobert is not as prepared as Noguiera right now and is not as physically strong.

Noguiera is a better athlete, rebounder and shot-blocker and has a better feel for the game. You have to project a few years forward with both, but I think it is more likely that Noguiera will be the better player in five years.

Ford:

1. Nerlens Noel, Kentucky
2. Alex Len, Maryland
3. Steven Adams, Pittsburgh
4. Lucas Nogueira, Brazil
5. Mason Plumlee, Duke
6. Gorgui Dieng, Louisville
7. Rudy Gobert, France
8. Jeff Withey, Kansas
9. Vitalis Chikoko, Zimbabwe
10. Colton Iverson, Colorado State
Bilas:
1. Nerlens Noel, Kentucky
2. Alex Len, Maryland
3. Mason Plumlee, Duke
4. Steven Adams, Pittsburgh
5. Lucas Nogueira, Brazil
6. Rudy Gobert, France
7. Gorgui Dieng, Louisville
8. Jeff Withey, Kansas
9. Colton Iverson, Colorado State
10. Zeke Marshall, Akron

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