2016 WNBA Draft (April 14) Preview

[lethalweapon3]

 

‘Tis just about time for another WNBA season to get started – the 20^th, already? I’m getting old – and the Draft is scheduled for Wednesday evening (April 14, 7 PM, ESPN2). There haven’t been many earth-shaking moves since last we left the Atlanta Dream, out of the playoffs last fall for the first time since 2008 after tying with Connecticut at 15-19 at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. But that doesn’t mean a lot of other things haven’t been happening around the league!

Where to start… How about, right at the top?

 

Lisa Borders was the primary figure responsible for enticing a WNBA franchise to Atlanta. Now, she runs the whole show – not the team, the entire league! The WNBA picked Borders, the former Atlanta vice mayor and city council president and Coca-Cola Foundation exec, to replace Laurel Richie. She was drawn to consider to position at the behest of NBA Commish Adam Silver, who shares a spot with Borders on the Duke University Board of Trustees.

There has never been any mistaking Borders’ pant-suited presence along the sidelines at Philips Arena. She’s a self-admitted “raving fan” of the Dream: “I’m the No. 1 fan,” she told the New York Times. How that impairs, or at best colors, her impartiality and decision-making in the Commissioner role remains to be seen. But if nothing else, her presence alone will prolong the existence of a WNBA franchise in the ATL. And there is arguably no one more capable of conceiving ways to promote the WNBA game and its players in the face of declining league-wide attendance (the Dream finished 9^th among 12 teams) and TV viewership.

The Dream canned general manager Angela Taylor near the close of 2015’s disappointing season. Months later, head coach Michael Cooper’s new boss is… I dunno, himself? Longtime Georgia Tech Associate Athletic Director Theresa Wenzel was hired to be the Team President last month, but she appears by my eye to be more of an office head than a player personnel manager. Until we see differently, I’d say it’s safe to assume that as far as the players are concerned, Coach Coop is calling the shots. USC Trojan alums Karleen Thompson and Miles Cooper (Michael’s son) return as his trusty assistants.

The Dream didn’t get lucky in last autumn’s WNBA Draft Lottery, and instead of picking 4^th in this year’s Draft they decided to take a chance on last year’s #4 selection. Elizabeth Williams played 21 games in her rookie season with the Sun (11.7 MPG, 3.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG) before being shelved for the year with a bruised knee. The move results in the rival Sun having back-to-back picks in the Draft (3^rd and 4^th). Out of Duke, Williams was the only four-time AP All-American in ACC history, and was college basketball’s 2015 National Defensive Player of the Year.

It’s that rim-protecting potential, particularly after the departures of Erika DeSouza (mid-season trade) and Aneika Henry (free agency, to Connecticut) that attracts Cooper. “We feel Elizabeth Williams will give us a defensive-minded center to handle all the big posts that we face,” noted Cooper, “and additional toughness that I think we were lacking last season.” Williams headlines a rebuilding frontcourt rotation that includes Brazilian big Damiris Dantas, plus second-year players Reshanda Gray and Cierra Burdick (all likely returnees from last season) behind Sancho Lyttle.

It’s the dreaded Olympic year, which every four years has teams scrambling to keep rosters stocked as players go for the proverbial gold. Rio 2016 lasts from August 5-21, and the FIBA Olympic Qualifier in France runs from June 13-19. The WNBA breaks from play during Rio, but several teams will have players drawn away for either preparation or playing in the June qualifier. Team USA already qualified in 2014, and Brazil hosts, so that may work to the benefit of franchise face Angel McCoughtry and Dantas. The 32-year-old Lyttle’s status with Team Spain this June always seems up in the air, but it’s likely this is why Cooper has been stacking the frontcourt with fresh talent.

The WNBA is shaking up the postseason format, adding a little more variability while rewarding top teams with a little more rest along the path to the Finals. Instead of the top 4 teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences, now it’s the top 8 teams overall qualifying. By comparison, last year’s Dream team would have been an 8-seed in 2016, assuming they won a tiebreaker with the Sun.

Rounds 1 and 2 will be single-elimination, with the third and fourth seeds getting a bye in the opening round and the top two seeds sitting out both winner-take-all rounds. There will be reseeding after each round concludes, and the semifinals copy the WNBA Finals’ 2-2-1 format instead of a best-of-3. It’s crazy enough that it just might work.

What wouldn’t work would be what reigning MVP Elena Delle Donne has been advocating. Building from commentary by UConn don Geno Auriemma, EDD is pushing the league to consider lowering the rim heights, enough to allow for the more hops-challenged among them to add dunking like Brittney Griner to their skill arsenals.

Such a drastic proposal would do more harm than good to the game, in my opinion, and Delle Donne’s ardent stance, under the banner of promoting “equality,” has created a small philosophical schism among her fellow WNBA players, Candace Parker and Diana Taurasi loudest among her opposing viewpoints on this issue. Alas, squabbling is de rigueur during a way-too-protracted offseason, players and officials always at-the-ready to react in horrified keystrokes to every predictable slight by male celebs and bigwigs with boorish opinions.

It’s pretty odd that a non-playoff team would make next-to-no changes to the lineup heading into next season, but with Cooper sticking around and sticking to his guns, that’s essentially what we have here. Aside from Williams replacing Henry’s position, Atlanta has essentially the same starting five they drew up when the season concluded: First-Team All-WNBA star McCoughtry and Lyttle at forward, Shoni Schimmel and Tiffany Hayes at guard, and Dantas competing with Williams at the five-spot. There’s even continuity among the reserves.

Puerto Rican star Carla Cortijo will compete with Sydney Carter at the point, Matee Ajavon returns after a surprisingly improved campaign in 2015, and swing player Roneeka Hodges isn’t going anywhere. Things might change another with a Draft deal or two. But barring a star turn from Williams, it should be more of the same from 2015, with hope for organic growth across the board.

Last year’s 3-way DeSouza-Dantas-Gray deal also netted the Dream the 11^th pick in the Draft, via reigning champ Minnesota, while the trading of last year’s first-rounder (Samantha Logic) to San Antonio granted them the 13^th pick.  Throw in the 16^th pick, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that one or more could be dealt, either to leapfrog a rival like Chicago or Indiana in the lower end of the first round, or to add more veteran support to an increasingly youthful roster. In any case, there’s only so much room at the inn, given a 12-player limit. Backcourt defense and perimeter shooting ought to be the Dream’s top priorities to address heading into the Draft.

Atlanta shot 41.1 FG% as a team in 2015 (10^th out of 12 teams), and thanks in part to Cooper’s headless-chicken pace, committed 15.3 turnovers per game, well above anybody else, while conceding a league-high 79.8 PPG on the other end of the floor. Opponents were able to waltz to the free throw line (23.4 attempts per game) on the strength of 20.8 personal fouls per game committed by Atlanta, both WNBA-highs, both well-above the teams behind them.

Key to the Dream’s decline last season was the steep offensive drop-off of Hayes (39.2 FG% and 27.4 3FG%, down from 46.4 FG% and 35.7 3FG% in 2014), who re-upped with Atlanta in February on a new multi-year contract. Schimmel may or may not be playing for Team Five Guys, but her offseason conditioning has long been a sore spot for WNBA fans, and there are few signs that things improved in the past few months. Cooper quickly lost confidence in his rookie Logic last year, but needs to find someone that could transform Schimmel and Hayes into steady sixth-women, sooner than later.

A secondary need is depth at the five-spot. A third center could help in the event the Dream lose Dantas for an extended period due to Olympic obligations, and if Williams isn’t quite primed for a heavy workload.

UConn supernova Breanna Stewart is a lock to head to Seattle and replace retiring legend Lauren Jackson, while lights-out shooter Rachel Banham of Minnesota (28.6 PPG) shot up the draft boards with blistering performances and is out of reach. There are not one, but two “Courtney Williams”-es in the Draft, and I’m a fan of both of them. But the South Florida shooting guard Courtney Williams (by way of Charlton County, Georgia, 22.4 PPG, 38.2 3FG%) fills a better long-term need than the rebounding swing player out of Texas A&M.

The Aggie Williams received a late-season suspension for unspecified reasons. So, if you absolutely have to get a Courtney from College Station, go instead with their all-time leading scorer, Courtney Walker (touted by her coach as “the best mid-range shooter in America”). Or, go with their lead playmaker, Jordan Jones (6.1 APG).

Staying in the Longhorn State, Baylor guard Niya Johnson can push the rock and dish it well, among the NCAA leaders with 8.7 APG and a 3.4 assist-to-turnover ratio. Other guards potentially available for Atlanta at No. 11 include Rutgers’ Kahleah Copper (3^rd all-time in scoring for C. Vivian Stringer’s program), Bria Holmes of West Virginia, Ameryst Alston of Ohio State (directed the NCAA’s 3^rd-highest scoring offense), Jamie Weisner of Oregon State (44.3 3FG%), and Brittney Martin of Oklahoma State (20.4 PPG, 2.7 SPG, 20 double-doubles). As a surprise pick, the Dream might take a flyer on Hawaiian guard Lia Galdeira, who elected to forego her senior year at Washington State and play overseas in preparation for the WNBA.

There should be several pivot players available at the bottom end of the first round. Top talents include the rangy 6-foot-7 Imani Boyette out of Texas, Oregon State’s Ruth Hamblin (3.5 BPG), and Florida State’s Adut Bulgak, a Sudanese-Canadian who has a bit of shooting touch to go along with her post defense. Jillian Alleyne of Oregon (13.6 RPG) is stashable but unable to play this season after an ACL tear short-circuited her season. Cooper never met a USC Trojan he didn’t like, so don’t rule out Temi Fagbenle (“fuhg-BEEN-lay”) with a lower-round pick.

Among the smaller schools, there’s Florida Gulf Coast’s Whitney Knight (no, I don’t know if she can dunk), a shot-blocking 2-guard who is moving up the charts after a solid season. I’m a huge fan of Albany’s Shereesha Richards (23.4 PPG), who joins Stewie and Alleyne as just three college players with 2,000 career points and 1,000 rebounds.  But I’d rather not draft the Jamaican range-expanding wing scorer, unless Atlanta’s drafting a player to groom as a star-in-waiting for Angel, who turns 30 in September.

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Here's G... um, Coach Coop, with his thoughts as the Draft approaches.

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

WNBA.com merged the 1st Round mocks, and most seem convinced the Atlanta will Dream big...

http://www.wnba.com/news/wnba-mock-draft-2016-roundup/
(via espnW)

Quote

11. Atlanta: Adut Bulgak, Florida State, 6-4, C

The Dream seemed like they should have been better than what their season ended up being last year, and the 2015 draft didn't help them. It might help this time if they can get a big player who can step in and contribute a little right away. Yes, there will be a steep learning curve for Bulgak, but she showed some versatility in being able to step outside the arc, and she's a solid rebounder.

 

Bleacher Report has the Dream taking Ruth Hamblin, as does Excelle Sports. SLAM mag has the Dream thinking shooters, and taking Jamie Weisner.

http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?t=85609&start=1500&sid=b1c57e8eb79b2e96c718c87c477a54fd

Meanwhile, the Rebkellians have been Mock Drafting for awhile now. The last couple of 11/13/16 fan mocks have a consensus of Bulgak, Imani Boyette (probably not dropping to 11th, beacuse linth) and Hamblin, with latter picks for guards like Weisner, Niya Johnson, and Ameryst Alston.

If I had to draft today, I'd go with Bulgak/Niya/Weisner.

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

One more time-killer before the draft, of our favorite big-boned-ed baller scorching the nets (along with her sister, Jude) up in Alaska a couple weeks ago.

Rumors are flying that Shoni's headed west (Seattle? San Antonio? Phoenix?) as part of some draft-day deal, but I'll believe it when I see it.

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

It's elementary!

Quote

 

On Thursday night, Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson and Morgan Tuck will become the 18th, 19th and 20th UConn products selected in the first round since the 2001 draft. However, there is another piece of potential Connecticut women’s basketball history that could be made.

Seven players who played their high school ball in Connecticut have been selected by WNBA teams, but none have ever gone in the first round. In the lead up to this year’s player selection meeting, multiple WNBA coaches have stated that former Hillhouse High star Bria Holmes could be a late first-round or early second-round selection.

“It would definitely be a good feeling because nobody from Connecticut has been drafted in the first round,” Holmes said. “I am getting very excited, it is almost like a dream come true. I have wanted this since I was a little girl. It is real exciting but emotional at the same time.”

 

http://www.nhregister.com/sports/20160412/bria-holmes-could-be-first-connecticut-native-to-be-first-round-wnba-pick

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

The Scarlet Ladder!

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/01/06/here-comes-rachel-hollivays-offensive-game/

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Walker, Texas A&M Ranger!

We've got one more third-rounder after this one.

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Hey, a steal! Won't be Niya's last!

Backcourt's getting a little crowded! But I do like this pick!

~lw3

[Gray Mule]

Can't wait for the 2016 season to start!  Drafted 4 new Dream gals!

3 guards and a center.