Resigning Al Horford isn't just huge, it's critical.


NBASupes

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I am not going to go into mass detail but this why.

A. He fits our system. 

B. He is critical to our system.

C. His 18 million dollar Cap hold makes him one of the biggest assets in the NBA for us. While everyone else is paying him 28+ in year one, we can sign others while having a 18 million dollar cap hold which makes us have 24+ million in cap space. The issue with losing him is it doesn't free up but 18 million and that only gives us 42 million in cap space which is one to two B to C level player at most. With Al we have a lot of flexibility. We can sign Dwight and look to trades for a starting wing to replace Baze. We can look to trades to free up cash to sign Bazemore. Or we can trade Millsap for a package of Gallinari and Burton or Harris with Denver. We have a lot of options but it's critical to keep Al for these options.

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I think you need to revisit some of the cap space threads.  Most of what you (and most writers) are saying is theoretical at best and I'll use Hawksfanatic's most recent article as a reference. (http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2016/6/22/12008602/jeff-teague-trade-atlanta-hawks-salary-cap-update)

When NBA writers are discussing our cap situation, they take into account our holds. They are as follows.

Horford - $18,000,000

Heinrich - $5,692,416

Bazemore - $2,600,000

Humpries - $1,200,000

Draft picks (x2) - total $3.18 million

There are a few missing pieces of important information here.

1. Mike Scott's salary is not guaranteed. He can be waived and renounced (see pending legal trouble) by July 10th for a savings of 3.333 million against the cap.

2. Mike Muscala and Lamar Patterson's deals are also not guaranteed, but they will be kept because their cap number is right around the vet minimum...no real cap savings to clear them.

3. Hinrich's salary in 2015 was only $2.87 million.  Assuming the Hawks resign Hinrich, it will be closer to $3,000,000 in salary and that is only a minor cap hit. But there is a problem with Signing Hinrich for anything (see below).

4. We're also going to assume that both Splitter and Korver aren't going anywhere. Although both good players, trading away either would be solely a salary dump. Splitter will be making $8.25 million this year and Korver $5.24 million.

So lets make some assumptions. Using Hawksfanatics numbers.  The Hawks have $46,883,357 in guaranteed salaries to 9 players. They also will keep Muscala, Patterson and their 2 draft picks, but will renounce Mike Scott. That gives them a total salary of 48,733,689 and 11 roster spots filled.  They only have room for 4 more players. The NBA salary cap in 2016 will be $94,000,000, giving the Hawks a theoretical salary room of $45,226,311

What this means is Humphries, Hinrich won't be back because the Hawks only have 4 roster spots left and both players will command more than the league minimum.

Assuming the $42 million (ish) in cap room (after signing 2 vet minimums) number (which requires renouncing free agents or them signing with other teams). Kevin Durant's max contract this season can be $24.9 million. The same for Horford. Dwight Howard has been in the league longer than 10 years and could make up to $29.3 million. Whereas Bradley Beal (or Hassan Whiteside) has been in the league only 4 years and can only make $20.4 million. This to me makes Bradley Beal our number 1 target (not Horford) and makes Korver expendable.  Additionally, the Hawks could lock up both Whiteside and Beal at max contracts, putting the Hawks in a contender position for years to come. Both players are young and will continue to improve, whereas Horford is  older and could see diminished skills by the end of his contract.

Where am I going with this? Theoretically, the Hawks have enough money to sign both Durant and Beal to max contract if they renounce Mike Scott and trade away Korver. The could sign Beal and Whiteside if they renounced their free agents and Mike Scott. Given that Howard will not command max money this off-season (age/declining skills) but will still get $20 million per...A scenario where the Hawks get Howard and Beal is plausible.  However, keeping Horford is going to almost definitely require max money ($24.9 million), leaving roughly $17.1 million left for 1 player.  This is slightly less than what it would take for a player like Beal. Maxing Horford (which is more than to max Whiteside/Drummond/Biyombo, means pricing yourself out of the market for Derozan, Durant, Beal.

Not only is signing Horford not critical, but what is critical is that if Horford does sign here, it is imperative that he take a discount of at least $6 million per year less than the market may bear. What is critical is that Horford signs a reasonable contract right away. Otherwise, we are passing on other excellent talent in this class. Examples of players who could get the max from us and who we could pair them with (if we let Horford/Baze walk). Just think if these pairings would be better than Horf/Baze/Korver.

1. Durant / and any of Whiteside/Biyombo/Drummond (restricted)/Gasol. (Requires renouncing FA's, Korver salary dump and waiving Scott).

2. Bradley Beal / Hassan Whiteside.  (Outside shooting + Rebounding). (My personal favorite). Can be done by only renouncing our free agents.

3. Demar Derozan / Dwight Howard (Mr. Offense + Mr. Defense). A stretch but doable depending on Dwights salary.

4. Horford + JR. Smith (with cap room to boot). A very plausible scenario where Smith is signed for $12 million leaving us $5,000,000 to fill the other roster slot.

 

Option 2 we could max Beal and Whiteside, keeping Korver for the bench.

Schoeder/Beal/Sefalosha/Millsap/Whiteside

Patterson (or THJ)/Korver/Bembry/Muscala/Splitter

other THJ, Tavares, vet mins.

 

Resigning Horford is not critical. In fact, it could be detrimental long term.

Apologies if any numbers are wrong...I started writing this at 4 AM.

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Campster, you posted that article and you really couldn't be even more wrong. Most of the guys you linked to us our RFA or the Hawks would have extremely limited interest in like J.R. Smith.

DeRozan wants to resign with Toronto and Toronto wants him.

Whiteside has numerous teams ahead of us and we don't have interest.

We can get Dwight with Horford which once again, shows Horford's value for getting us multiple assets with his cap hold.

Your plan 1 flat out sucks. Durant is not coming to Atlanta without Al. Much less with Pau Gasol. Lol!

Bradley Beal is a RFA and he's getting maxed out. Nothing to see here.

Once again, there is NO plan that doesn't make Al Horford not critical for us, even the most wishful thinking plans like Beal and Drummond.

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9 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Question: Is there a list of teams that Al has agreed to meet with?

As of now, none. It's strongly been mentioned that he wants to return and Atlanta will give him that 5th year. But I guess he is taking a wait and see approach to what Atlanta does before making a decision. 

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4 hours ago, thecampster said:

However, keeping Horford is going to almost definitely require max money ($24.9 million), leaving roughly $17.1 million left for 1 player.  

I don't understand how keeping Horford is going to require $24.9M? If we give him the max, then it will only count as $18M towards the cap. This gives enough $ for a 7-9yr vet max if we renounce all other cap holds and drop all non-guaranteed contracts (except Muscala's). It is ~$27.6M left over, assuming a $94M salary cap.

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2 minutes ago, Bankingitbig said:

I don't understand how keeping Horford is going to require $24.9M? If we give him the max, then it will only count as $18M towards the cap. This gives enough $ for a 7-9yr vet max if we renounce all other cap holds and drop all non-guaranteed contracts (except Muscala's). It is ~$27.6M left over, assuming a $94M salary cap.

He doesn't understand the cap. Al will cost for 26.6 year one but his cap hold is 18 million so that means, we could sign him for 26.6 but he only counts at 18 million on the cap so he's a discount for us. Saves us 8.6 million dollars in the value chart while Bazemore could cost 12 million plus on the value chart which would mean he has negative value unless his play on the court is positive and cancels it out. That's not the case though. 

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Al costs the full amount of his first year salary.  There is no discount.  

The cap hold is useful before Al is signed.  Until he is signed, he only counts 18 M on the cap and we retain his bird rights so we can use the 18M placeholder and then sign up to the cap.  Then we can sign Al for more than 18M and that enables us to go over the cap resigning our own free agent.  Once we sign him, he counts the same as any UFA we sign.

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Just now, AHF said:

Al costs the full amount of his first year salary.  There is no discount.  

The cap hold is useful before Al is signed.  Until he is signed, he only counts 18 M on the cap and we retain his bird rights so we can use the 18M placeholder and then sign up to the cap.  Then we can sign Al for more than 18M and that enables us to go over the cap resigning our own free agent.  Once we sign him, he counts the same as any UFA we sign.

Of course but we can go over the cap to sign him. We can't do that for Bazemore which is why Al is a net positive as his cap hold holds value other than just rights like someone like Shelvin Mack. 

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At start of free agency, Horford’s heart is in Atlanta

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Al Horford’s heart is in Atlanta. The Hawks All-Star center becomes an unrestricted free agent on July 1. His preference is to return to Atlanta, where he has played all nine of his NBA seasons after the Hawks selected him with the third overall pick in the 2007 draft. Hawks management has also made it clear that re-signing Horford is a top priority this summer.

Now, it comes down to a contract.

 the Hawks and Horford are unable to come to an agreement, there will be a long line of suitors for the versatile big man. There could be as many as 15 teams with maximum offers in hand. The Celtics, Nets, Lakers, Rockets, Magic, Pistons and Wizards are just a few of the teams that have reportedly shown interest in Horford.

Horford, who turned 30 on June 3, has kept a low-profile this summer, choosing not to discuss his pending free agency. He did the same during the regular season, saying only that he would explore free agency at the end of the year. He has been a regular at Philips Arena for workouts this summer.

“I’m grateful, first, for the season that we had,” Horford said during his exit interview following the end of the Hawks’ season in May. “I really love playing with this group of guys. Coach is great. I really like the way the organization is heading with new ownership and all the changes there are around here. That’s something that we’ll have to address when that time comes. But I feel good here.”

With the salary cap now reported to be $94 million, a maximum contract for Horford would be approximately five years, $153 million from the Hawks and four years, $118 million from another team.

All indications are that the Hawks are willing to make a maximum offer. It is not expected that negotiations between Horford and interested teams would take very long and the whole process could be resolved in a couple of days following the start of free agency period.

“We are so fortunate to work with a guy of the caliber of Al Horford,” Hawks general manager Wes Wilcox said. “We also believe in the quality of the relationships that we have built over the years. At the same time, we always respect a player’s right to choose, especially as an unrestricted free agent. But Al has been, is and will be a priority for the Hawks. I think we feel very good about (re-signing him).”

The Hawks have shown their preferred way to build the organization is to retain players and add through the draft. They re-signed all-star Paul Millsap last season although were unable to retain DeMarre Carroll, who got a large deal from the Raptors.

Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer said following the season that Horford is “incredibly valuable” to the organization. The Hawks have the longest streak of consecutive playoff appearances in the Eastern Conference at nine – a run that started the year Horford was drafted.

Horford is the Hawks’ all-time leader in playoff games (74). He also is first in rebounds (621), second in points (958) and field goals (406) and fourth in assists (210). He is among the franchise leaders in several regular-season statistics including second in field goal percentage (.535), sixth in blocks (698), eighth in rebounds (5,144) and 10th in player efficiency rating (19.1).

The Hawks have the means to sign Horford to a maximum contract and add another max player – although that would mean parting ways with Kent Bazemore. The Hawks currently have $25 million in salary cap space after accounting for Horford. It would take just a move or two to increase their cap availability to the $26.5 million for another max contract.

Not only has Horford spent his entire career in a Hawks uniform, he has built a life here. He got married. He had a first child, a son. He as another child on the way, a daughter.

“I know, and I believe in my heart, that this is a special place and I feel like the way the Hawks organization is going, it’s going in the right direction,” Horford said in May. “People should want to be a part of this.

http://www.myajc.com/news/sports/basketball/at-start-of-free-agency-horfords-heart-is-in-atlan/nrppQ/

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In my opinion, Horf should essentially be told that he should consider himself an assistant GM, and name his price, knowing that whatever that price is, he, like Budcox and his teammates, will either be helped in the pursuit of a championship or, alternatively, he can make that exceedingly more problematic if he chooses to take all of the money and years on the table in a "maxed-max" contract. Just sign him as quickly as possible to gain certainty on that front, so that you can proceed with the rest of the FA decisions.

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40 minutes ago, sturt said:

In my opinion, Horf should essentially be told that he should consider himself an assistant GM, and name his price, knowing that whatever that price is, he, like Budcox and his teammates, will either be helped in the pursuit of a championship or, alternatively, he can make that exceedingly more problematic if he chooses to take all of the money and years on the table in a "maxed-max" contract. Just sign him as quickly as possible to gain certainty on that front, so that you can proceed with the rest of the FA decisions.

Damn, out of likes

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1 hour ago, sturt said:

In my opinion, Horf should essentially be told that he should consider himself an assistant GM, and name his price, knowing that whatever that price is, he, like Budcox and his teammates, will either be helped in the pursuit of a championship or, alternatively, he can make that exceedingly more problematic if he chooses to take all of the money and years on the table in a "maxed-max" contract. Just sign him as quickly as possible to gain certainty on that front, so that you can proceed with the rest of the FA decisions.

I'm pretty sure if we sign him it needs to be the last signing because we have his bird rights and not those of free agents from other teams. 

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13 minutes ago, Thomas said:

I'm pretty sure if we sign him it needs to be the last signing because we have his bird rights and not those of free agents from other teams. 

Just to be clear, official signings do not actually begin until the Moratorium period is over (July 7th), but teams and players are allowed to have discussions before then starting July 1st. So you may hypothetically hear on July 2nd that Horford verbally agrees to a deal with the Hawks, but that does not mean we have officially signed him. So don't think that if he is our first "signing" that Budcox have screwed themselves in terms of the salary cap.

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Supes, let me "clarify" my statement.  A cap hold means that when dealing with other free agents and you have your own unsigned free agents, you must consider the hold as what you owe that player for cap purposes. This is why you must renounce that player if you wish to sign others (See Hinrich/Humphries). You may go over the cap to sign your own players, but not in combination with other players from other teams. 

 

For example:...the Hawks want to resign Baze and give him an idiotic $16 million. They also bring back Hump and Hinrich at $3 each. They are allowed to go over the cap to resign Horford. However, the Hawks instead offer Durant a max contract....they cannot then go out and sign Horford to a max without having renounced their other free agents first and fitting that money under the cap. This is why when Lebron went to Miami, the big 3 all had to take discounts. Even though Wade was their free agent at the time and they could go over to sign him, they signed other free agents as well. The order you sign them in doesn't matter...it is all considered the same if all signed before real games start. Believe me, I have better than most but less than AHF/Hawksfanatic understanding of the cap (although admittedly my max numbers are a little off based on the recent minor bump in the cap).

Also, each and everyone of the free agents on the list will listen to offers from any team that A) can offer the max and B) can show how doing so will pair them with a championship caliber squad.  The only question is...can you fit them into your system. For example, Dwight Howard is a hard fit for Atlanta because his limited outside game and bad free throw shooting requires you surround him with Durant like offensive talent.

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16 hours ago, NBASupes said:

I am not going to go into mass detail but this why.

A. He fits our system. 

B. He is critical to our system.

C. His 18 million dollar Cap hold makes him one of the biggest assets in the NBA for us. While everyone else is paying him 28+ in year one, we can sign others while having a 18 million dollar cap hold which makes us have 24+ million in cap space. The issue with losing him is it doesn't free up but 18 million and that only gives us 42 million in cap space which is one to two B to C level player at most. With Al we have a lot of flexibility. We can sign Dwight and look to trades for a starting wing to replace Baze. We can look to trades to free up cash to sign Bazemore. Or we can trade Millsap for a package of Gallinari and Burton or Harris with Denver. We have a lot of options but it's critical to keep Al for these options.

Denver isn't going to trade Gallinari. 

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"So, my wish for Horford to re-sign overnight, eschewing the Rockets meeting after all, didn't happen," he said. 2016-07-01_0839.png

Darn.

 

 

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