Kyle Korver discussion


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I said when Horford was swapped out for Howard, the biggest difference would end up being on the defensive end. They immediately chose to swap out a blitzing and trapping defense for much more of a normal defense that has the big stay back and everyone play straight up. That wouldn't be much of an issue, except it exposes Kyle Korver more.

When people say that Kyle Korver is a much better defender than he's given credit for, they are technically correct in the kind of defense the Hawks were playing (which is why I said a few times that Horford helped hide Korver on defense). His quick hands and anticipation was very helpful in the blitzing and trapping the Hawks did with Al Horford as the C. But now that the Hawks are playing more straight up, we're seeing that the lateral speed for Korver, which was already pretty slow, is even slower than it was in his previous season where he came in healthy (14/15). It is tougher to hide Korver in more straight up defense, which is why the Hawks previously blitzed and trapped a lot.

So, is Korver's three point shooting cancelling out his more vulnerable defense? If you look at basketball-reference, the answer is no right now and ORTG suggests that he's not bringing the effects he did in 2013-2015.

The solution to this would be to bring back the blitzing and trapping with Mike Muscala in.

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I brought this up on Twitter and got crushed. Watching him play it's clear that he has lost a step.

 

The argument the other way is that he can't create for himself and playing with the starters gets him shot opportunities. Yes, he is shooting 47% (or whatever after last night) but as the year goes on if his shooting % falls again I just can't see him not coming off the bench. 

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This is not a discussion about Korver's strengths. And despite his shot returning to normal, the Hawks are still not feeding off of his effects like they did in 2013-2015. Eye test and one metric backs it up. He's become just one of the guys now.

Edited by Lurker
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2 hours ago, capstone21 said:

He spreads the floor ... his being on the floor makes it easier for the other players.

True. If he was out, teams would just clog the paint and ATL would be looking like Chicago. If only Hardaway was a consistent 3 point shooter.

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42 minutes ago, BigDog90 said:

True. If he was out, teams would just clog the paint and ATL would be looking like Chicago. If only Hardaway was a consistent 3 point shooter.

I wonder how we even manage to score points when Kyle isn't on the floor.

Its got to be the greatest mystery why his backup THJ averages more points per game, and a higher plus minus. And Thabo despite being such a worse shooter has a higher plus minus, scores only .3 ppg less than Kyle in less minutes. It's almost as if Kyle's superior shooting ability would make every player on the wing look lost without his spacing. 

How on Earth are we scoring 6 more points a game this year despite Kyle's minutes declining from 30 mpg to 26 mpg. You would think our offense would suffer with him playing less minutes since we need his spacing to score any points. 

Here's the truth. Kyle is no more effective on THIS YEARS Hawks than Thabo, Timmy or Baze.

Some of yal need to get out of your time machine because  2014-2015 is over. We are not dependent on his shooting anymore. The numbers support that.

Kyle is not a bum. He is very useful. But he is no more starter quality than Thabo or Tim at this point. They all are equally impactful on our teams success. The thing is, They can do more than just shoot the ball, which is what we need when shots aren't falling for us.

PS, Tims higher Plus Minus is the most telling stat considering I don't think they have played a single minute together this year so that literally means the team is better with Tim on the floor than Kyle. THIS YEAR.

 

Eyes don't lie, stats don't lie

Verdict: we score just fine with out Kyle's floor spacing 

Edited by RedDawg#8
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@RedDawg#8 You also need to take into account that Thabo and Timothy are playing well above their heads currently whereas Kyle is putting out a typical performance.  You can more likely expect regression on the former than the latter.

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Great problem to have.  Having RELIABLE options if/when Kyle struggles on offense or defense makes our team stronger over the course of 82 games.

If what  @RedDawg#8 says that " Kyle is no more effective on THIS YEARS Hawks than Thabo, Timmy or Baze"  then I have a hard time understanding why he needs to move to the bench AT THIS TIME.

I've said before, his minutes SHOULD be reduced as needed to give the younger guys more playing time.  But until anyone proves they are SUBSTANTIALLY better than Kyle I'm cool with him starting.

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Kyle is old and slow and white.  In baseball, it's three strikes and you're out.  Three strikes on Korver.

Never mind that he can occasionally make a shot.  All other Hawks who play that position hits a

much higher %.

Please don't bring up the fact he has a high basketball IQ.  Who needs a coach on the floor?  Not us.

Kyle is too old.  The game has passed him by.  Swap him for someone's third round draft pick and let

him go.

He's too slow.  He never gets himself open to take a shot any more.  When he decides to move, the defender

has already figured him out and is standing where he wants to go.

And finally, he cost too much $$$.  Just think what the Hawks could do with all that dough.

Good by Kyle.  Nice knowing you.  Good luck as you join Josh over seas.  Hawks don't need you any more.

 

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6 hours ago, RedDawg#8 said:

How on Earth are we scoring 6 more points a game this year despite Kyle's minutes declining from 30 mpg to 26 mpg. You would think our offense would suffer with him playing less minutes since we need his spacing to score any points. 

Two main reason:

1. Offensive rebounds

2. Because our bench is playing out of their minds at the moment.

Looking at Kyle's ability to spread the floor as just a way to score points is one dimensional thinking.  It's what it does to another teams defense as well and how our other players are defended.  They aren't leaving Kyle to double ANYBODY else, so our other players have 1 on 1 matchups.  

There's a reason Thabo, Tim, Baze are getting and hitting wide open shots - teams will leave them to double Dwight, they won't with Kyle on the floor.  Teams play a different defense with Kyle on the floor.  Teams will live with Thabo, Baze and Tim beating them from 3, they won't with Kyle.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Two main reason:

1. Offensive rebounds

2. Because our bench is playing out of their minds at the moment.

Looking at Kyle's ability to spread the floor as just a way to score points is one dimensional thinking.  It's what it does to another teams defense as well and how our other players are defended.  They aren't leaving Kyle to double ANYBODY else, so our other players have 1 on 1 matchups.  

There's a reason Thabo, Tim, Baze are getting and hitting wide open shots - teams will leave them to double Dwight, they won't with Kyle on the floor.  Teams play a different defense with Kyle on the floor.  Teams will live with Thabo, Baze and Tim beating them from 3, they won't with Kyle.

 

 

But, but, @JayBirdHawk "This is not a discussion about Korver's strengths." :stirthepot:

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10 hours ago, Lurker said:

This is not a discussion about Korver's strengths. And despite his shot returning to normal, the Hawks are still not feeding off of his effects like they did in 2013-2015. Eye test and one metric backs it up. He's become just one of the guys now.

 

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2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

My question is does Korver on offense (yes, including his "effects") outweigh the defense. I think it's uncomfortably closer than people want to admit.

We are currently ranked in the top 3 in defense as a team.  You would need to post some statistical analysis for Korver for both offense and defense to further the discussion. 

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12 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

We are currently ranked in the top 3 in defense as a team.  You would need to post some statistical analysis for Korver for both offense and defense to further the discussion. 

Why?! Isn't having an agenda enough?

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Why do Timmy and Thabo have to be playing above their heads? Isn't it perfectly reasonable to assume that Timmy is just naturally better as a young player in year 2 of this offense. Isn't it reasonable to suggest that just like Kyle had the luxury of an off season not rehabbing like last year, now his shot returned to normal (still not as good as 2 years ago) Just maybe the same thing has happened for Thabo. He actually had an off season to focus on his game and not rehabbing and in turn he is just a better all around player.

Also, me saying they are all equally effective was me just being nice considering it's still early. But they both are out producing Kyle in several ways.

PIE:

Thabo: 14.5

Timmy: 10

Kyle: 7.1

 

+\- :

Thabo: 9.4

Timmy: 7.5

Kyle: 4.0

 

Net Rating:

Thabo: 19.8

Timmy: 15.2

Kyle: 7.5

 

PPG (Keep in mind Kyle plays more minutes than both)

Timmy: 11.4

Kyle: 9.1

Thabo: 8.8

 

Turnover Ratio

Timmy: 6.0

Thabo: 13.3

Kyle: 19.9

 

eFG%

Thabo: 65.0

Kyle: 64.3

Timmy: 53.5

 

True Shooting %

Thabo: 65.4%

Kyle: 64.3%

Timmy: 56%

 

I mean, the numbers bear it all out. Outside of shooting Kyle is last across the board.  Kyle is being out played by his backups this year PERIOD. The team rates better with Tim and Thabo than with Kyle PERIOD. Just numbers, no other agenda here. It's been obvious to me for a while. 

One thing to note here, the fact that Kyle turns the ball over 2.3 times a game as a non ball handling player is absolutely terrible. He barely touches the rock, he isn't asked to create for anybody else, all he has to do is shoot or pass, he literally can't even take more than 2 dribbles without everyone holding their breathe because something bad might happen. To have a starter that is that liable on offense outside of good shooting is pretty scary. I'm sorry but when we first got Kyle, there wasn't any competition in the wing but there is now. It is an absolute myth that our team needs him to be a starter to win games. Cleveland game proved that did it not? We scored 110 on the road against the champs with no Korver in sight. Our supporting cast has grown tremendously and we are good with or without him on the floor.

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