2017 Dynasty Draft - Pick Selection and Discussion Thread

[LucastheThird]

You can give all the advanced stats you want. I finally put LeBron with 3 other multiple time All-Stars (4 if you include Dwight still). I still feel like I win years 1 and 2.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Are we running this back for 2018. I noticed @AHF swept like all the categories last year. Who does he think he is, the scrubs? I’d like to join this year and give him a run for his money ?!

Yeah.  Will plan to do this once summer league is done and we are entering the dead period of the summer (given that we won't be making ripples in FA).

[Spud2nique]

22 minutes ago, AHF said:

Yeah.  Will plan to do this once summer league is done and we are entering the dead period of the summer (given that we won't be making ripples in FA).

Nice ?? 

[lethalweapon3]

All the advanced stats you want (OK, not all, just the SUM-MELO scores) are on the way soon! :-)

CARMELO stats just came out early last week.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

We'll start in reverse order of finish from the 2017-18 season, calculated by summing up CARMELO results to create SUM-MELO scores.

First, a few overarching from-the-hip observations:

* Player health during the season proved to be the over-ridng factor in how well teams finished. Virtually every team had key players miss at least a third of the season, if not all of it, due to injuries.

* Ball-sharing stars on deep and successful teams (the Warriors, pretty much), experienced declines from pre-season projections, too.

* The fewer players who turned in negative WARP (Wins Against Replacement Player) values, the better the current and future outlook for a squad. Some players for the above reasons had big drops, but those could generally be overcome by having drafted young talent who overachieved.

* Either WARP overestimated the value of rebounding bigs in their estimations, or the results from 2017-18 reflected the diminishing on-floor value of players where rebounding and blocking shots are there essential calling card. The inverse situation seemed to be the case for efficient-scoring sixth-men, notably guards and wings.

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

@pimp got an All-NBA surge from Damian Lillard, while Jaylen Brown progressed farther than expected in his second season. But those were the only increases in production from what was projected. DeMarcus Cousins’ season was cut short due to injury, and Zach LaVine never really got going, while Kevin Durant’s contribution was conserved on a deep team. Dennis Smith’s team’s play factored more into his rookie production than anything he could do individually. And several teammates took significant steps backward, most notably Isaiah Thomas, Gorgui Dieng and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. A bounce-back in coming seasons for KD’s team hinges upon the strength of Cousins’ rebounding health.

 

@pimp "ATL Air Force" SUM-MELO values

17-18 Projected – 50.7 (6^th)

17-18 Actual – 25.3 (9^th)

17-18 Differential – Down 50.1% (9^th)

Team GOATs – Damian Lillard (10.8 WARP, +3.4), Jaylen Brown (3.0 WARP, +3.1), Kevin Durant (7.1 WARP)

Team goats – Isaiah Thomas (-1.4 WARP, -6.3), Gorgui Dieng (-1.2 WARP, -5.9), Andrew Wiggins (-0.4 WARP, -2.7)

Previous 21-22 Projection – 36.3 (4^th)

Revised 21-22 Projection – 25.9 (4^th)

21-22 Change – Down 28.7% (8^th)

 

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Of the nine SDL teams, @Buzzard’s was the only one to finish where it was predicted in the standings. Unfortunately, the season-opening injury to Gordon Hayward likely disallowed any opportunity to overachieve. Kemba Walker proving good-as-advertised, and J.J. Redick stepping up his play, were perhaps the sole bright spots. Deflating seasons from Hassan Whiteside and Harrison Barnes, plus a lack of a surge from Karl-Anthony Towns, Derrick Favors, Serge Ibaka and Dennis Schröder, and an injury absence for Reggie Jackson did not help matters for departing coach Stan Van Gundy. Klay Thompson’s regular-season result proved akin to KD and other fellow Golden Staters. As was the case for pimp and Cousins, the scale of Hayward’s career upswing will drive this team’s future.

 

@Buzzard "The Flocking Buzzards" SUM-MELO values

17-18 Projected – 43.7 (8^th)

17-18 Actual – 26.1 (8^th)

17-18 Differential – Down 40.3% (8^th)

Team GOATs – Karl-Anthony Towns (8.2 WARP), Kemba Walker (8.0 WARP, +1.8), J.J. Redick (2.7 WARP, +1.5)

Team goats – Gordon Hayward (0.0 WARP, -6.8), Hassan Whiteside (0.8 WARP, -3.5), Harrison Barnes (-1.0 WARP, -2.9)

Previous 21-22 Projection – 27.2 (6^th)

Revised 21-22 Projection – 16.1 (8^th)

21-22 Change – Down 40.8% (9^th)

 

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

@PSSSHHHRRR87’s season was headlined by the Most-Improved award winner, Victor Oladipo. Sadly, his rise was all but offset by the dual effect of Mike Conley’s early season-ending injury and former Rookie star Malcolm Brogdon missing significant time. LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan made strides. But veterans Carmelo Anthony and Robin Lopez hurtled toward the abyss. Andre Drummond exceeded expectations with his improved rebounding and defense, as did Tobias Harris to a lesser extent. However, Drummond, Oladipo, Harris and Aaron Gordon are the sole players projected with measurable staying power through 2021-2022. A healthy Conley can change that count next season.

 

@PSSSHHHRRR87 “Birds of a Feather” SUM-MELO values

17-18 Projected – 41.7 (9^th)

17-18 Actual – 31.7 (7^th)

17-18 Differential – Down 24.0% (4^th)

Team GOATs – Victor Oladipo (10.6 WARP, +5.1), DeMar DeRozan (5.4 WARP, +2.4), LaMarcus Aldridge (5.3 WARP, +2.4)

Team goats – Mike Conley (0.1 WARP, -6.3) Carmelo Anthony (-0.7 WARP, -3.4), Robin Lopez (-1.5 WARP, -2.5)

Previous 21-22 Projection – 19.0 (9^th)

Revised 21-22 Projection – 15.3 (9^th)

21-22 Change – Down 19.5% (4^th)

 

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

@Diesel’s team’s season was short-circuited by the season-ending injury to Kristaps Porzingis before the All-Star Break. Career-best rebounding from DeAndre Jordan was insufficient to offset a regression in effectiveness without All-Star-caliber teammates around him. One notable exception was the play of one teammate, Sixth Man extraordinaire Lou Williams. Julius Randle and Eric Bledsoe, once the latter settled down, also outperformed expectations. Russell Westbrook’s post-MVP season was a slight drop, while teammate Paul George broke even with his preseason projection. Moving up the charts will necessitate a productive return by the Unicorn, as well as guards Seth Curry and Jeremy Lin.

 

@Diesel "Atlanta Ganstaslappas" SUM-MELO values

17-18 Projected – 53.6 (5^th)

17-18 Actual – 36.6 (6^th)

17-18 Differential – Down 31.7% (6^th)

Team GOATs – Russell Westbrook (12.7 WARP), Paul George (7.0 WARP), Lou Williams (3.7 WARP, +1.7)

Team goats – DeAndre Jordan (2.0 WARP, -5.6), Kristaps Porzingis (2.2 WARP, -3.6), JaMychal Green (-1.3 WARP)

Previous 21-22 Projection – 30.4 (5^th)

Revised 21-22 Projection – 21.8 (6^th)

21-22 Change – Down 28.3% (7^th)

 

 

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

You know the drill by now. In @LucastheThird’s case, the injury bug bit Paul Millsap. And, John Wall. And, Patrick Beverley. And, as always, Danilo Gallinari. Modest improvements by Al Horford, Eric Gordon, Thaddeus Young, and Bradley Beal made up for the lack of a star turn by Jabari Parker, assuring a middle-of-the-pack finish despite the injuries. But none of those positive developments were enough to assure a high-seed for LeBron James, whose impact is best felt when the playoffs arrive. Getting full-seasons from The King’s complementary cast, and perhaps a last-hurrah bump from Dwight Howard, ought to make for a stronger finish next season. Hopefully, Coach Bud sticks around to see it through.

 

@LucastheThird "Monsters Among Men" SUM-MELO values

17-18 Projected – 57.7 (4^th)

17-18 Actual – 38.8 (5^th)

17-18 Differential – Down 32.8% (7^th)

Team GOATs – LeBron James (13.0 WARP), Eric Gordon (3.5 WARP, +1.9), Al Horford (5.8 WARP, +1.2)

Team goats – Paul Millsap (1.5 WARP, -5.4), John Wall (2.3 WARP, -4.3), Jabari Parker (-0.5 WARP)

Previous 21-22 Projection – 23.9 (8^th)

Revised 21-22 Projection – 17.9 (7^th)

21-22 Change – Down 25.1% (6^th)

 

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

@HopefulHawksFan’s team lived up to the team owner’s adjective, as it was the only team to rise three slots upward from preseason projections. Only a handful of players exceeded projections, most surprisingly sharp-shooter Kyle Korver. Otto Porter pleasantly surpassed expectations, too. But after Kevin Love and Marc Gasol, whose declines were sharp, every other player’s regular-season WARP declined slightly, enough so to be reasonably close to projections. But for incomplete seasons by stars Jimmy Butler, Love, and Kyrie Irving, there was a chance this club could have reached the medal stand. Making it onto the league’s Mount Rushmore, instead, will do just fine.

 

@HopefulHawksFan "Human Hopeful Film" SUM-MELO values

17-18 Projected – 47.6 (7^th)

17-18 Actual – 43.1 (4^th)

17-18 Differential – Down 9.5% (2^nd)

Team GOATs – Jimmy Butler (9.3 WARP), Otto Porter (8.0 WARP), Kyle Korver (3.2 WARP, +2.9)

Team goats – Tyler Ulis (-1.8 WARP), Kevin Love (3.0 WARP, -3.1), Marc Gasol (2.6 WARP, -2.0)

Previous 21-22 Projection – 26.5 (7^th)

Revised 21-22 Projection – 25.6 (5^th)

21-22 Change – Down 3.4% (2^nd)

 

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Two words: Kawhi. Leonard. You’ll have to ask Kawhi’s handlers (Coach Pop sure tried) why his protracted impasse derailed what would have been a top finish for the league’s projected top seed entering regular season play. @AHF’s team had league MVP James Harden, a dominating pivot player in Joel Embiid backed by the improved Clint Capela, and a rookie wise beyond his years in Jayson Tatum. Even Tim Hardaway, Jr.’s season concluded better than estimated. Going forward, Markelle Fultz and Josh Jackson have nowhere to go but up from their rookie campaigns. Myles Turner needs to bounce back. Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and Ricky Rubio just need to hang on a little longer. And… uh, Kawhi?

 

@AHF "U-Niques" SUM-MELO values

17-18 Projected – 65.0 (1^st)

17-18 Actual – 46.2 (3^rd)

17-18 Differential – Down 28.9% (5^th)

Team GOATS – James Harden (14.0 WARP), Jayson Tatum (5.0 WARP, +4.8), Joel Embiid (4.9 WARP, +0.8)

Team goats – Kawhi Leonard (0.5 WARP, -10.7) Josh Jackson (-2.5 WARP), Myles Turner (1.2 WARP, -3.8)

Previous 21-22 Projection – 50.3 (1^st)

Revised 21-22 Projection – 38.8 (2^nd)

21-22 Change – Down 22.9% (5^th)

 

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Three of the stars on @capstone21’s star-studded roster (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Kyle Lowry) exceeded expectations. This trio, plus a big boost from Jrue Holiday, allowed cap to eke into the second-place slot. A solid season from the aging Dirk Nowitzki didn’t hurt, either. Climbing one spot higher would have required a full-season and greater offensive role for Rudy Gobert, a full-season and more impactful defense from Devin Booker, and any season less-than-disastrous all-around for Jae Crowder. The prospects of growth going forward for Booker, teammate Marquese Chriss, D’Angelo Russell and Jamal Murray remain promising. That’s to say nothing of The Freak and The Brow.

@capstone21 SUM-MELO values

17-18 Projected – 58.0 (3^rd)

17-18 Actual – 46.5 (2^nd)

17-18 Differential – Down 19.8% (3^rd)

Team GOATs – Kyle Lowry (9.9 WARP), Anthony Davis (9.5 WARP), Jrue Holiday (8.1 WARP, +3.9)

Team goats – Tristan Thompson (-1.6 WARP, -4.8), Jae Crowder (-0.7 WARP, -5.8), Rudy Gobert (4.4 WARP, -5.1)

Previous 21-22 Projection – 45.1 (3^rd)

Revised 21-22 Projection – 36.6 (3^rd)

21-22 Change – Down 18.8% (3^rd)

 

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Speaking in third-person, @lethalweapon3 would love to tell people he knows how to game a system he created. But the bottom line is his collection of draftees got lucky, as they were healthier than any other squad. Stephen Curry missed or otherwise rested for 30 games; Cody Zeller was unable to play much at all. But that was about it on the downside. Meanwhile, rookies Ben Simmons and Lonzo Ball made strides, and Nikola Jokic proved to be as good as advertised. He and teammate Gary Harris, plus Robert Covington and teammate Dario Saric, comfortably surpassed expectations on a roster with no negative WARPs. Looking ahead, this club has the pole position. But there are many teams in this league, with health and some bounce-back seasons, could overtake them. And they’d better find a new coach, with Jason Kidd gone.

 

@lethalweapon3 "Lethal Flexibility" SUM-MELO values

17-18 Projected – 62.3 (2^nd)

17-18 Actual – 57.2 (1^st)

17-18 Differential – Down 8.2% (1^st)

Team GOATs – Nikola Jokic (9.4 WARP), Ben Simmons (7.5 WARP, +5.0), Robert Covington (8.3 WARP, +3.3)

Team goats – Markieff Morris (0.1 WARP), Draymond Green (6.1 WARP, -4.7), Cody Zeller (0.3 WARP, -4.9)

Previous 21-22 Projection – 45.9 (2^nd)

Revised 21-22 Projection – 46.0 (1^st)

21-22 Change – Down 0.2% (1^st)

 

~lw3

[capstone21]

Awesome job LW3

[LucastheThird]

This feels rigged lol. The one presenting the scores just so happens to have himself winning..........I'm watching you @lethalweapon3

 

 

Thanks for the stats though, these writeup are awesome.