Official Game Thread: Hawks at Trail Blazers

[lethalweapon3]

“NOW, WHEN I SAY FIRE, YOU SAY STOTTS. FIRE!”

 

After beating the Kings back in mid-November, it took 40 calendar days before the Portland Trail Blazers came away victorious again in their own building. Back at the Moda Center following an up-and-down road trip, the Portland Trail Blazers seek to avenge last weekend’s 104-89 loss in Atlanta against the Hawks (10:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, NBC Sports Northwest in PDX). Might the next winless streak for the home crowd stretch beyond eight days? I’m not so sure ex-Hawks coach Terry Stotts can last in his current gig with another weeks-long home drought.

Yes, Damian Lillard (25.2 PPG, 7^th in NBA) is back, and although his right calf is a bit gimpy after returning from a hamstring injury to post 25 points (7 TOs) in 33 minutes during Wednesday’s loss in Cleveland, Dame DOLLA probably won’t miss a chance at getting a measure of payback versus Atlanta’s Dennis Schröder (favorite candy bar: 2 Musketeers).

Lillard’s return alleviates sidekick C.J. McCollum (23.2 PPG, 37.5 FG% in five games Lillard missed) from being excessively hounded by defenders while jacking up shots. Dame also allows Shabazz Napier (21 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 blocks @ ATL on Dec. 30) to provide some spark to an otherwise offensively lifeless reserve unit (26^th in bench O-Rating; 28^th in bench eFG%; dead-last 43.9 bench assist%, no other NBA bench below 50 assist%).

But if the Blazers fail to grab the home W tonight versus league-worst Atlanta (10-27), or against a rested Spurs team on Sunday, then they’d have to endure a tough four-game Western Conference road trip before the suddenly upbeat Phoenix Suns pays Rip City a visit, 11 days from now.

Since turning a 33-win outfit in Lillard’s rookie season into a 54-28 squad with a legendary first-round playoff upset, Stotts’ Blazers have declined in the win column in every season since, going from 54 to 51 to 44 to an even-steven 41. They’ve never entered a playoff series under Stotts as a favored seed, and the prospects for a top-4-seed, for a well-paid roster that has few tradable components, continues to dwindle.

Very little of this has been Stotts’ fault, considering LaMarcus Aldridge’s defection to the Spurs, and GM Neil Olshey’s sketchy decisions during the draft (giving up 2017 first-rounders before-and-after John Collins, to take Zach Collins in the lottery) and in free agency (Allen Crabbe and Evan Turner ‘16). But a January tailspin would have Portland (19-18) sinking below .500, and possibly out of the playoffs for the first time in five seasons, in the unforgiving NBA West.

While the Blazers are aiming for a must-win, the Hawks come up the Oregon Trail after wrestling away a must-lose from the jaws of victory against the Suns. Despite his team blowing a double-digit lead in the final three minutes on Tuesday, Dennis Schröder (favorite sitcom: Two’s Company) had an opening to dish to an open Taurean Prince (eager to make amends, moments after getting highlighted at the rim by Marquese Chriss) for the game-tying three.

Schröder (5 TOs @ PHX, most since Nov. 15) may have caught wind of Prince’s boxscore line (2-for-14 FGs, 1-for-7 3FGs) and elected to press his luck with a last-second layup try instead. It was the type of questionable decision-making that could weigh Ay ton for Atlanta a few months from now. Tanks a bunch, Dennis!

For Portland, it all comes down to these critical fourth quarters, where they make an NBA-low 1.9 threes per game. Their offense petered out during the final frame of their games in Atlanta (20-32 points differential) and Cleveland (23-36), and in their last five losses, the Blazers have averaged a mere 20.6 PPG as a team in those quarters.

“We gotta put together a full game,” McCollum told The Oregonian yesterday, perhaps recalling his Lillard-less squad’s 17 third-quarter tally last Saturday as well. “The second half will be huge for us; how we start the third quarter, and how we sustain that.”

It’s usually in that last quarter where the Hawks’ field goal-making comes alive (47.9 FG%, 2^nd-best in NBA; 40.9 3FG%, 3^rd-best in NBA). That is, at least, when they can get shots off without turning over the ball (16.4 TO%, 2^nd-worst in NBA) or missing free throws after getting hacked (hey there, Miles Plumlee).

With top-scorers Lillard and McCollum usually in to close out games, Stotts’ challenge is to find the complementary frontcourt contributors who can get stops and spark transition (27^th in PPG off TOs, last in fastbreak PPG), but can at least look like a threat to be involved in plays on the offensive end. We may be in the throes of Winter, but if the Blazers don’t figure out some stable lineups to finish games, Stotts is certain to become Olshey’s Fall Guy before the Spring gets here.

 

Go Dawgs! Rise Up! And Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3

 

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[benhillboy]

The Blazers stats are weird.  In that first meeting they looked worse than they should without Lilliard but after looking at the stats I had no idea they were that good on defense.  3rd in points allowed, even Lilliard and McCollum have much better defensive boxes and ratings that I thought.  They would have squeezed a few more wins out if they turned people over like the Hawks.  

Their offense is truly ass though.  Just not a lot of talent in addition to McCollum regressing considerably.  Hawks by 5.

[lethalweapon3]

side roster news: One Hawk is going To and 'Fro.

MC at the AJC is back, and he confirms DeAndre' is not with the team but back here in the 404.

Going out to Cali (for the weekend)? Nah, I don't think so...

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Stotts gave Blazer fans a Lill scare less than an hour ago ("no decision has been made"), but D-Lill's officially a go.

~lw3

[Lurker]

I'm really not understanding the usage of Collins at all and this is also the Dennis I could leave it with. Hate his attitude on the court sometimes.

[benhillboy]

Digging Dennis’ play on defense in the second.  Got a few deflections and hustling on the ball.

[Lurker]

Schröder's effort truly was appalling tonight outside of that 2nd quarter stretch. Even if it's close later, he should not return to this game at all.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I'm about to look up what percentage of Collins' offense comes in the post.  It's ridiculous to not throw him the ball on the block, on occasion, and let him work.  Instead, you have all of these dudes jacking up long jumpers that they can't make.

[nathan2331]

I'm about to look up what percentage of Collins' offense comes in the post.  It's ridiculous to not throw him the ball on the block, on occasion, and let him work.  Instead, you have all of these dudes jacking up long jumpers that they can't make.

Don't know what Bud needs to see before he starts doing that. We play too much small ball for a team with guards that can't consistently get to the rim.

[Lurker]

I'm pretty sure it's close to none and a coaching idea, not any of the guards ideas, which is shameful.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

11 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I'm pretty sure it's close to none and a coaching idea, not any of the guards ideas, which is shameful.

10 TOTAL POST-UPS for the entire year.  2 - 4 FG . .. for 8 pts.  Which means he drew fouls on a few of those attempts.

Post-ups represent 3.1% of his offense.

That's unacceptable for a guy who did this in college.

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by TheNorthCydeRises

[TheNorthCydeRises]

John Collins Play Types & Frequency

 

Pick & Roll Man - 29.2%

Cut - 25.5%

Put Backs - 18.3%

Represents 73% of Collins offensive play types

 

Misc - 10.2%

Transition - 6.8%

Spot Up - 4%

Post Up - 3.1%

Isolation - 1.6%

Handoff - 1.2%

[lethalweapon3]

 "Stick with me, kid. You'll be my new Al Horford in no time!"

~mik3bud3n's3v3rydaystruggl3

[nathan2331]

John Collins Play Types & Frequency

 

Pick & Roll Man - 29.2%

Cut - 25.5%

Put Backs - 18.3%

Represents 73% of Collins offensive play types

 

Misc - 10.2%

Transition - 6.8%

Spot Up - 4%

Post Up - 3.1%

Isolation - 1.6%

Handoff - 1.2%

Where'd you find those numbers? Pathetic how much we're under-utilizing him. Even though he's not a star yet, there's no reason to at least try playing through him and see what happens.

 

The outcome can't be much worse than watching Prince and Bazemore play like they are first & second options and if it is, even better for the tank.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

39 minutes ago, nathan2331 said:

Where'd you find those numbers? Pathetic how much we're under-utilizing him. Even though he's not a star yet, there's no reason to at least try playing through him and see what happens.

 

The outcome can't be much worse than watching Prince and Bazemore play like they are first & second options and if it is, even better for the tank.

https://stats.nba.com/players/playtype-misc/?sort=TeamNameAbbreviation&dir=-1

 

When you go to that link, you can see what our players have done on each play type.

• Under "NBA Advanced Stats", you'll see the word Players thick underlined in blue.
• Right under Players, you'll see the words Players - Playtype - Misc and a blue triangle
• Click on that blue triangle to activate the drop down menu, to change the play type.
• Once the play type is selected, the screen will refresh and the stats will change to that play type
• In the dark blue section where the stats are located, click on TEAM to sort the stats. 
• If you click on it a few times, ATL should be sorted right at the top.

[benhillboy]

I didnt have much of a problem with his play type and frequency but damn.  Anything less than 10% is just wrong.  Should be 15.  Videos of his training suggest he should get more elbow isolations too.  Bud deserves blame for sure but Ham is also the Bigs handler.

[NBASupes]

18 hours ago, benhillboy said:

The Blazers stats are weird.  In that first meeting they looked worse than they should without Lilliard but after looking at the stats I had no idea they were that good on defense.  3rd in points allowed, even Lilliard and McCollum have much better defensive boxes and ratings that I thought.  They would have squeezed a few more wins out if they turned people over like the Hawks.  

Their offense is truly ass though.  Just not a lot of talent in addition to McCollum regressing considerably.  Hawks by 5.

.... I don't know about this one. They seem to be pretty good

[benhillboy]

3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

.... I don't know about this one. They seem to be pretty good

I willfully fell asleep on the second half last night, surprised we got stomped. 

Judging by the D yeah they’re damn good.  I wouldn’t mind Aminu and Nurkic on my squad but they ain’t making no real noise as currently constructed.  As a McCollum follower I’m positive he’s slacked off after he got his max money.  No matter how talented I’ll never be a fan of Lilliard, same profile as Dennis.

Edited January 6, 2018 by benhillboy

[nathan2331]

I willfully fell asleep on the second half last night, surprised we got stomped. 

Judging by the D yeah they’re damn good.  I wouldn’t mind Aminu and Nurkic on my squad but they ain’t making no real noise as currently constructed.  As a McCollum follower I’m positive he’s slacked off after he got his max money.  No matter how talented I’ll never be a fan of Lilliard, same profile as Dennis.

What's the beef with scoring PGs? If the team has more options on offense they won't shoot in as much volume. I'd rather have guys like Dennis and Lillard rather than the Teague's of the league.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

18 minutes ago, nathan2331 said:

2 hours ago, benhillboy said:

I willfully fell asleep on the second half last night, surprised we got stomped. 

Judging by the D yeah they’re damn good.  I wouldn’t mind Aminu and Nurkic on my squad but they ain’t making no real noise as currently constructed.  As a McCollum follower I’m positive he’s slacked off after he got his max money.  No matter how talented I’ll never be a fan of Lilliard, same profile as Dennis.

 

What's the beef with scoring PGs? If the team has more options on offense they won't shoot in as much volume. I'd rather have guys like Dennis and Lillard rather than the Teague's of the league.

It's a different league.  Everything is spacing and pick and roll now.  And without teams pounding it inside to good scoring big men down on the block, it's become a PGs game.  It's going to take a team winning with a good to great inside game, along with great perimeter defense, to change how this league is going.