Draft pick value explained.

[AHF]

4 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

So based on this chart, even paying a premium, Atlanta should be able to move up from 10 to 5 by just offering 35 to Cleveland.  That seems light to me.  I guess the logical question is how much of a premium is needed?  IF the draft is as flat from 4-14 as most claim, doesn't seem like a big premium would be warranted.  But for some reason 10+35 doesn't seem like it would be enough for Cleveland to bite.   

 

I don't know how he put the chart together but to me a trade value chart should take into account the market appetite for trading up and down so it is a useful tool for identifying what assets it is likely to take to get a deal done.  Pelton flat out admits his doesn't do this so it is of very limited value to me.  According to his chart, we should be able to get the #5 pick for our #17 and two 2nd round picks.

[thecampster]

On 6/19/2018 at 11:00 PM, thecampster said:

No, it really isn't as each team still has to deal with the cap. Taking on a player and his salary hampers everything you do in the future.  Parsons is 1/4 of the team cap. He's a serious anchor.

Another example of a thread revive. This whole one is really interesting considering what we were looking at, saying pre-draft this year. How taking on Crabbe, Turner and Parsons (55% of the cap for dead weight players) left us with nothing but the rookies and injuries. A few years down the road it may be useful but this awful first half of a season in the rear view mirror offers a lot of perspective to this thread.

[AHF]

I stand by what I said earlier in the thread.

Pelton's chart is sophmoric and not particularly useful.  A chart like this should be a useful tool for constructing offers that are realistic and can be successful.  First, the draft values will vary wildly year to year depending on who is available on the board so a static chart like this is of dubious value.  Second, even in the abstract the values he has listed on the chart are not useful for putting together hypothetical trades.  For example, if we end up with the 9th pick this year he says that we should be able to trade it for the 5th pick simply by including Miami's 2nd round pick in the deal (projected to be the 54th pick).  That actually gives the team with the #5 pick "more" value than us which gives them a rational incentive to trade if the chart is realistic.  Which, of course, it is not.  Add the OKC 1st round pick in there and we are talking about being close to the #1 pick in value which should represent a huge premium (+12%) for the 2nd overall pick.   Does anyone really think that the #9, #20 and #54 picks are a >12% value premium over the #2 pick in a typical draft?  Really?

It is fine for generating discussion on this topic but a very poor tool for giving insight into how GMs value draft picks, imo.