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A lot of people projecting us to finish in last place but I really think 35 wins or more is possible


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2 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

This is what I don't understand.  Between the natural progression of the young players like Collins, Dorsey, and Prince and the addition of Trae, Huerter, and Spellman, I can't for the life of me see how they don't get better, let alone get substantially worse.  Makes no sense.  

Rowland and Siegel are in some of these guy's heads.  So is KB too of course but you knew that already. LOL!

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7 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

This is what I don't understand.  Between the natural progression of the young players like Collins, Dorsey, and Prince and the addition of Trae, Huerter, and Spellman, I can't for the life of me see how they don't get better, let alone get substantially worse.  Makes no sense.  

A lot of rookies play at a level that loses their team games rather than winning it.  I think you could see that in losing Belli / Ilya and giving those minutes to rookies.  Dennis is a big question-mark.  If he stays, it is hard to see how 48 minutes get divided between Dennis, Lin and Trae.   If he goes, then the team's talent takes a hit.  Baze is another guy who might be with us all year or who we might finally get a deal for that would lower our win total (particularly given all the public reports of him being shopped just a couple weeks ago). 

I think the team will unquestionably start the season better than we ended last season but I'm not ready to say what our roster will look like in January and/or whether they will be better than when we were running Dennis, Baze, Prince, Collins, Dedmon, Ilya, and Marco as our top 7.  It could certainly happen (none of those guys are world beaters) but there are a lot of moving parts for this team.

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2 minutes ago, AHF said:

A lot of rookies play at a level that loses their team games rather than winning it.  I think you could see that in losing Belli / Ilya and giving those minutes to rookies.  Dennis is a big question-mark.  If he stays, it is hard to see how 48 minutes get divided between Dennis, Lin and Trae.   If he goes, then the team's talent takes a hit.  Baze is another guy who might be with us all year or who we might finally get a deal for that would lower our win total (particularly given all the public reports of him being shopped just a couple weeks ago). 

I think the team will be unquestionably start the season better than we ended last season but I'm not ready to say what our roster will look like in January and/or whether they will be better than when we were running Dennis, Baze, Prince, Collins, Dedmon, Ilya, and Marco as our top 7.  It could certainly happen (none of those guys are world beaters) but there are a lot of moving parts for this team.

Y'all key hitting this default button of "we are going to trade players" mode.  What would be the point?  Why not assume we go with what we have and see what happens?  Oh that right the media says otherwise.  I forgot my bad.

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22 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

This is what I don't understand.  Between the natural progression of the young players like Collins, Dorsey, and Prince and the addition of Trae, Huerter, and Spellman, I can't for the life of me see how they don't get better, let alone get substantially worse.  Makes no sense.  

When we do the inevitable move of Dennis and Baz for the rooks we will absolutely be worse ... also we lost a phenomenal coach for a rook.  This is the development years ... this is not a 35 win team ... this is low 20s for now.  As guys develop and get experience and figure out how to play as well as more talent/veterans come in then the team will improve

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2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

How many games did our top 7 of Dennis, Baze, Prince, Collins, Dedmon, Ilya, and Beli.  play together last year consistently BEFORE the trade deadline?

The first 41 games: 

Ersan started the season with an injury then missed about 12 games, so the 1st 20 games or so Illy wasn't effective or missing. Two games  after he got back Dedmon was out for 19 games. 

Collins missed 6 consecutive games in the same span as Dedmon being out.

Muscala missed 27 games the first part of the season - missed games overlapped with Illy and Dedmon and Collins as well.

So the first half of the season was BRUTAL for our bigs up front. So bad that @Peoriabirdfave Tyler Cavanaugh got called up from the GL.:mosking:. Plumlee was seeing tons of minute as well as Luke Babbit.

That's hard to overcome. Fans remember the results but not always the full circumstances.

 

These guys keep thinking we will rearrange the roster during the season to have all rookies and 2nd year players because that's what they've been told.  These same posters can't explain why this will be done but if they say it over and over, somehow it become fact.  Just like all of those draft trades and using cap money to take on bad contracts.

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I said 30 - 35 last year and was way off. I will say 30 this year. We could be better but I think that is going to be dependent on what happens at PG. If Dennis is a more efficient 18 points a game, 35 is a possibility. If Dennis is moved, Trae will have to be in the ROY running for us to get 35.

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10 minutes ago, AHF said:

A lot of rookies play at a level that loses their team games rather than winning it.  I think you could see that in losing Belli / Ilya and giving those minutes to rookies.  Dennis is a big question-mark.  If he stays, it is hard to see how 48 minutes get divided between Dennis, Lin and Trae.   If he goes, then the team's talent takes a hit.  Baze is another guy who might be with us all year or who we might finally get a deal for that would lower our win total (particularly given all the public reports of him being shopped just a couple weeks ago). 

I think the team will unquestionably start the season better than we ended last season but I'm not ready to say what our roster will look like in January and/or whether they will be better than when we were running Dennis, Baze, Prince, Collins, Dedmon, Ilya, and Marco as our top 7.  It could certainly happen (none of those guys are world beaters) but there are a lot of moving parts for this team.

 I'm just looking at what we know right now.  And I know that the players lost from last years squad:

Ersan, Marco, Cavanaugh, Babbitt, Delaney, and IT = 8.4 win shares and a -13.7 Box Plus Minus.  That's not a lot to replace when we consider adding Trae, Huerter, Spellman, and Lin.  Even if we agree that Dennis will be gone eventually, he was at 2.6 WS and -0.7 BPM.  I'm just saying it's likely that they improve as a team, imo.  And it's certainly not a given that they GET WORSE by 4 games.  They were playing barely above g-league players last year.  Not they will be replacing those guys with rookies from the 1st round.  On talent alone they should be better than some of the guys getting run last year.  

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This team will win about the same as last year.  We need to give Trae a lot of minutes.  Although he had some great highlights in summer league, he also has a lot to learn.  Same with the other young players.  It's a developmental year, and the focus will not and should not be on winning games.  

If we get close to 35 wins I will be surprised.

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30 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Y'all key hitting this default button of "we are going to trade players" mode.  What would be the point?  Why not assume we go with what we have and see what happens?  Oh that right the media says otherwise.  I forgot my bad.

I think you are reading something into my post that isn't there.  I said there was uncertainty around the roster.  We reportedly wanted to trade Baze and Dallas wouldn't take him as part of our draft day deal.  If we wanted to trade him then, it is a pretty good bet that we still want to do so.  We clearly weren't trying to clear cap space for a FA so if we were shopping him it was about clearing a toxic asset off the books.

Then I said Dennis, Lin and Trae is a lot of playing time needed for 48 minutes of PG play.  Lin can play some SG if he is the same guy he was before the last two seasons of injury but that is still a lot of serious mouths to feed for a limited pool of minutes.  Dennis has averaged over 31 mpg the last two years.  Tough to see how you squeeze Trae and Lin's minutes into the remaining 17 plus a few at SG which would mean that you diminish the impact of each player's potential contribution to the extent that you have to cut minutes to get everyone their piece (unlike, for example, if one was a big man where you could fully maximize their minutes).  The obvious solution (if people are actually healthy) is to move Dennis if the right trade lines up given that you have signaled as clearly as humanly possible that he isn't your future at the position and he has the prime of his career yet to come.  Will they deal him?  Don't know.  Not saying we will trade him.  Just saying it is very possible and a potential moving piece.

This has nothing to do with the media other than the media reports of what we actually did (which I take into account) as opposed to media opinion pieces about what they think we should do (which I don't).

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6 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I don't know that we won't 'rearrange' the roster mid season at the trade deadline, heck I don't know that it won't be rearranged before the season starts.

What I do know is that Dennis and Bazemore have both been on the trade block since last years deadline.

So I cannot say with any certainty that they'll be here to start or end this upcoming season.

What needs to change before they get traded?  Will some team suddenly say "We need Baze or Dennis" even though nothing has changed between the end of the draft and free agency to the beginning of the season?  That doesn't sound right

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1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

What needs to change before they get traded?  Will some team suddenly say "We Baze or Dennis" even though nothing has changed between the end of the draft and free agency to the beginning of the season?  That doesn't sound right

A lot could change. Our asking price for Dennis and what we would be willing to send and take back to dump Baze.

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Just now, Peoriabird said:

What needs to change before they get traded?  Will some team suddenly say "We Baze or Dennis" even though nothing has changed between the end of the draft and free agency to the beginning of the season?  That doesn't sound right

There ate still rumblings that the Hawks would like to move them just haven't found the right deal.  Kawhi wants out he's still in SAS. 

Between now and training camp, teams are still wheeling and dealing. Signed draft picks can be traded in 30 from signing.

Injuries in training camp can change a teams perspective.

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JAYBIRDHAWK  - You are correct.  Everything depends on the health of the Hawks AND the health of their opponents.  If, and that's always a very big if, Hawks stay healthy, it will make a huge difference.

Hawk fans are pleased with our 2 draft picks from last season and expect that our three picks this summer will be every bit as good as advertised.  If Dennis and Baze are both here and Lyn is good to go, we expect to struggle in the early part of the season.  If they go, then it will depend on who we get in return.

As constructed right now, Hawks will improve until the second half of the season.  Then, they will be a team to beat, winning their share of games.  If you like offense, high scoring games, come on down!  Do we have a game for you!  We may not win a lot but I expect us to score a lot.

HO ATL HAWKS !!!

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Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

There ate still rumblings that the Hawks would like to move them just haven't found the right deal.  Kawhi wants out he's still in SAS. 

Between now and training camp, teams are still wheeling and dealing. Signed draft picks can be traded in 30 from signing.

Injuries in training camp can change a teams perspective.

Signed draft pick can be traded 30 days after they've been signed.

 

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2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

What needs to change before they get traded?  Will some team suddenly say "We need Baze or Dennis" even though nothing has changed between the end of the draft and free agency to the beginning of the season?  That doesn't sound right

Roster issues for a team could do it.  A team that wanted to fill a gap in FA reaches the end of FA and now finds it has struck out.  Injuries are a potential factor.  A team that wants to win loses someone (think NOP losing a guard, for example) or a team that sees a hole on their roster that they didn't expect (a player that was counted on regresses, etc.).  

Play from Baze and Dennis could also drive interest that isn't there today.  If Dennis has a great attitude and starts the year on a hot streak (which he has done before) and maybe can show more on D with more depth behind him then I could see a team more willing to bit a month into the season.  Same with Baze - he has yo-yo'd with his play the last few years and a strong start could push a team that needs help on the wing to bite the bullet.

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Just now, Peoriabird said:

Like what? And why wait 3 months?

Because teams that have expectations at the start of the season, their priorities change as the season progresses based on results.  They look at where their teams stand at the trade deadline and make a determination on the direction.

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Just now, Peoriabird said:

Like what? And why wait 3 months?

It is called negotiating. No rush until the deadline. Maybe you did not notice, but we were still negotiating with Dallas the day of the draft. Same thing can happen with any trade. And as Jaybird said, injuries do change a teams perspective.

For you say it won't happen with 100% certainty over the next 6 months is no different than someone saying it will happen. We know they have been on the block for a while; so every team in the NBA knows for the right deal they can be had.

Stranger things have happened than this.

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