REHawksFan

So what's the ripple effect of KD's injury?....

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You’re not supposed to take insurance when playing blackjack. But don’t you need it for NBA players?

The Warriors also have an edge over other potential suitors that isn’t as well-known as the Splash Brothers, or proximity to Silicon Valley. If Durant were to opt in to the final year of his contract with Golden State, rather than opt out as everyone assumed he would pre-injury in order to become a free agent, the Warriors would owe him $31.5 million next season. That is guaranteed loot, no matter if he plays a second or not.

But, the Warriors wouldn’t have to come out of pocket to pay him all of that cheddar.

Every NBA team takes out insurance to guard against catastrophic injury to its star players. Generally, teams insure their highest-paid players, or their players with the longest contracts. It’s not unreasonable to expect that a team putting nine figures into a 26-30 year-old star would want some protection in case said player suffers a career-ending injury on the second day of training camp. Once a player misses his 41st regular season game in a given year, his team’s insurance kicks in. Normally, the team is then reimbursed for 80 percent of the player’s remaining base salary. If a player misses the entire season, though, the team gets 80 percent of his entire season salary back.

In Golden State’s case, according to several league execs I spoke with Tuesday, if Durant opts in, because he would be exercising a clause in an already-existing contract, one that was executed before his injury, and then misses all of next season, and the standard 80 percent reimbursement applies, the Warriors would get approximately $25.2 million of Durant’s salary paid to them by their insurance company.

But any team that signed Durant to a new contract in July may not get that insurance protection, because the insurance company underwriting their deal may not agree to insure Durant because of the now-existing injury. This is what happened in recent years with Amar’e Stoudemire, whose $100 million contract with the Knicks in 2010 did not include insurance on his chronically injured knees. The Knicks, reportedly, had to get supplemental insurance for Stoudemire’s knees.

“You’re rolling the dice in so many ways,” one longtime league executive said Tuesday.

How does Durant get insured by a new team?

“He wouldn’t,” the executive said.

It’s not that insurance, or the lack thereof, is going to scare off prospective Durant suitors in and of itself. But it presents yet more murkiness and uncertainty, where clarity is desired.

 

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45 minutes ago, LucastheThird said:

Why do anything with that logic? Everything has a possible negative consequence, but we have a situation where KD won't have to have a large workload with two other offensive weapons in Trae and Collins (both with another year under their belts)

Because its well logical!

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10 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Because its well logical!

Don't sign one of the best players of all time because he has an injury (that other great players have been able to come back from) and will need time to heal? How is that logical? Even a limited KD is still an all star.

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22 minutes ago, gurpilo said:

KD had surgery on a ruptured achilles, out one year

Don't tempt Hawks fan more than they already are tempted to give him the max

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So ... several thoughts ...

1. If KD opts in to his GSW contract (reasonable assumption)

2. And surmising that he almost certainly won't play next season (small gamble that he might be able to return in March or April) and thus then becomes an unrestricted free agent after the season

3. Should we trade for him (since we can absorb his salary by giving back someone like Plumlee or Bazemore), in exchange for an asset?

4. He could stay with the GSW team rehab folks if he wants to and then resign with GSW or whomever he wants.

5.  GSW gets quite a bit of monetary relief through this deal, because of their repeater tax penalties.  

6. We can actually agree to waive KD so he can play for whomever he wants to if he is healthy enough prior to the end of next season.  

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16 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

So ... several thoughts ...

1. If KD opts in to his GSW contract (reasonable assumption)

2. And surmising that he almost certainly won't play next season (small gamble that he might be able to return in March or April) and thus then becomes an unrestricted free agent after the season

3. Should we trade for him (since we can absorb his salary by giving back someone like Plumlee or Bazemore), in exchange for an asset?

4. He could stay with the GSW team rehab folks if he wants to and then resign with GSW or whomever he wants.

5.  GSW gets quite a bit of monetary relief through this deal, because of their repeater tax penalties.  

6. We can actually agree to waive KD so he can play for whomever he wants to if he is healthy enough prior to the end of next season.  

Makes no sense....see my post about insurance and supermax

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Forgot about insurance.  

Thanks. 

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I also think he won't re-up with GS and will sign a multi-year max deal with someone.  They will be banking on a Joel Embiid, etc. type of recovery and next year impact.

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2 minutes ago, AHF said:

I also think he won't re-up with GS and will sign a multi-year max deal with someone.  They will be banking on a Joel Embiid, etc. type of recovery and next year impact.

Embiid was 20

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Just now, Peoriabird said:

Embiid was 20

Nique was 32 and averaged 28 and 7 his next two seasons.  You've got some other success stories like Rudy Gay and some others that weren't so good as well.  There aren't a big bank of prior situations like this at the end of the day and probably nobody at the same age and level that Durant has been at.  What I'm saying I'd bet on someone being willing to gamble on him.  I'm not making an argument here whether that is a good idea or not.  As long as someone is willing to give him a high $$ multi-year contract, then that is probably what he'll sign.

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4 minutes ago, AHF said:

Nique was 32 and averaged 28 and 7 his next two seasons.  You've got some other success stories like Rudy Gay and some others that weren't so good as well.  There aren't a big bank of prior situations like this at the end of the day and probably nobody at the same age and level that Durant has been at.  What I'm saying I'd bet on someone being willing to gamble on him.  I'm not making an argument here whether that is a good idea or not.  As long as someone is willing to give him a high $$ multi-year contract, then that is probably what he'll sign.

Wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole at a max deal

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3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole at a max deal

But that is irrelevant to the conversation.  My point was that I don't expect him to opt in to his 1 year deal with GS.  Whether a particular team wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole doesn't matter.  You'd need to see the collective market unwilling to touch him with a 10 foot pole and I don't think that will be the case.  I'm confident there will be teams willing to gamble.

(Like I wouldn't have touched Evan Turner, Kent Bazemore, etc. for the price of their last deals with a 10 foot pole but who cares for purposes of predicting what they will accept for their next contract when other GMs apparently were willing to gamble on them both.)

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1 minute ago, AHF said:

But that is irrelevant to the conversation.  My point was that I don't expect him to opt in to his 1 year deal with GS.  Whether a particular team wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole doesn't matter.  You'd need to see the collective market unwilling to touch him with a 10 foot pole and I don't think that will be the case.  I'm confident there will be teams willing to gamble.

(Like I wouldn't have touched Evan Turner, Kent Bazemore, etc. for the price of their last deals with a 10 foot pole but who cares for purposes of predicting what they will accept for their next contract when other GMs apparently were willing to gamble on them both.)

There are Hawk fans really excited about the prospect of being able to bid for his services now that he is hurt

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Didn't like KD at first because Horford couldn't take rookie of the year. Then the mercenary thing of leaving your guys that helped take you to the brink and going to the team that stopped you, never imagined witnessing that from a team's leading scorer. Now a major injury at 30 and supermax money. He will be 31 later this year. Man oh man.

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I think because of how the insurance works, it is in KD's best interest to opt into his Warriors contract then become a free agent in 2020.  He gets his money and continues to rehab with a familiar medical team (assuming he has a good relationship with them).  The Warriors will have a significant portion of his salary paid by insurance thus not impacting their finances.  KD can sit out the entire 2019-2020 season then determine where he wants to go.  Insurance should not be an issue if he sits out most if not all of the season.

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6 minutes ago, AtlHomer said:

I think because of how the insurance works, it is in KD's best interest to opt into his Warriors contract then become a free agent in 2020.  He gets his money and continues to rehab with a familiar medical team (assuming he has a good relationship with them).  The Warriors will have a significant portion of his salary paid by insurance thus not impacting their finances.  KD can sit out the entire 2019-2020 season then determine where he wants to go.  Insurance should not be an issue if he sits out most if not all of the season.

The insurance is irrelevant to him, though.  That purely affects the teams.  If a team is offering him big money on a long-term deal, he would be dumb to turn that down, IMO.  This is a long rehab and it takes time to get back to speed after returning with the risk that a player never fully recovers.  If he turns down long-term deals, he is taking a big risk.

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4 minutes ago, AHF said:

The insurance is irrelevant to him, though.  That purely affects the teams.  If a team is offering him big money on a long-term deal, he would be dumb to turn that down, IMO.  This is a long rehab and it takes time to get back to speed after returning with the risk that a player never fully recovers.  If he turns down long-term deals, he is taking a big risk.

He has to opt out before any team can "legally" talk to him, so theoretically he is taking a risk by opting out without knowing the options from the market.  I'm not naive enough to believe his people won't already have deals / offers prior to the option decision though.  It would be interesting if he opts out and then teams don't treat him as the priority (ala Kimbrel / Keuchel in baseball) and wait to sign him until next season.  That would cost him $31.5M.  Never happen though.

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