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So what's the ripple effect of KD's injury?....


REHawksFan

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10 minutes ago, AHF said:

The insurance is irrelevant to him, though.  That purely affects the teams.  If a team is offering him big money on a long-term deal, he would be dumb to turn that down, IMO.  This is a long rehab and it takes time to get back to speed after returning with the risk that a player never fully recovers.  If he turns down long-term deals, he is taking a big risk.

Point taken!  I'm looking at this from the perspective of the team(s).  Luxury tax is REAL money that impacts the bottom line for a team.  I'd question the risk of a max contract investment that could hamstring a team for the 2019-2020 season.  It could pay off if he comes back at close to the level he is playing now.  Instead of the risk being on KD, it would be on the team(s).   That's probably why I am not a professional sports team GM because I look at the money as I do my own.

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20 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

He has to opt out before any team can "legally" talk to him, so theoretically he is taking a risk by opting out without knowing the options from the market.  I'm not naive enough to believe his people won't already have deals / offers prior to the option decision though.  It would be interesting if he opts out and then teams don't treat him as the priority (ala Kimbrel / Keuchel in baseball) and wait to sign him until next season.  That would cost him $31.5M.  Never happen though.

You are right that there is a big gap between theoretical risk for KD of having to opt out before he can know his market and the reality which is that his agent will have commitments for max offers before he does that.  So that isn't a real life factor.

If teams are cool on him, he'll know it before he makes the decision.  Big contracts for aging stars are an industry wide market shift in baseball (huge deals used to be common but are now much rarer) and you compound that with the issue of having to give up draft picks to sign Kimbrel / Keuchel before June which incents teams to wait until now to sign them so they avoid the pick penalty.  Apples to oranges.  Any team that thinks he will fall off won't be interested.  Any team that predicts he will be near his usual MVP level will be willing to go all-in because KD's true market value has been more like $50M/year in his prime.

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