Players in the 2019 draft you don’t want!

[Spud2nique]

Which are the one or two players that you absolutely don’t want who are projected to go in the lottery?

 

Mine would be:

 

Nassir Little- A pure athlete who came off the bench at UNC who does not have a good basketball IQ and doesn’t have a great natural feel for the game. Sound familiar? Yup, that’s Marv reincarnated. Don’t do it Schlenk, and I know he won’t. Nas won’t b a Hawk imo.

Jaxson Hayes- A value pick in the middle or late first but I’m not spending a lotto pick on a guy that is only a rim protector and can probably only finish directly at the rim in the form of a dunk. These guys are becoming extinct. If you can’t shoot, I don’t care what position you play, it’s gonna be tough to be effective in this league.

 

What say you?

[REHawksFan]

5 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Which are the one or two players that you absolutely don’t want who are projected to go in the lottery?

 

Mine would be:

 

Nassir Little- A pure athlete who came off the bench at UNC who does not have a good basketball IQ and doesn’t have a great natural feel for the game. Sound familiar? Yup, that’s Marv reincarnated. Don’t do it Schlenk, and I know he won’t. Nas won’t b a Hawk imo.

Jaxson Hayes- A value pick in the middle or late first but I’m not spending a lotto pick on a guy that is only a rim protector and can probably only finish directly at the rim in the form of a dunk. These guys are becoming extinct. If you can’t shoot, I don’t care what position you play, it’s gonna be tough to be effective in this league.

 

What say you?

Spot On, imo.

For me:

Hayes is first.  Just don't see the appeal in the guy or the fit for the Hawks. I mean, if he fell to 17 I guess I wouldn't hate it, but he just doesn't get me excited at all.

Little is next.  For me, it's probably residual Marvin-itis but I don't see him as a potential quality player for the hawks.  The thinks Supes has been saying has lessened my disregard for him though.  I still would prefer they go a different direction.

 

All of the above said, I still trust Travis so if he decides to draft either or both, I'll live with it and support them.  Neither will get me super excited on draft night though.  

 

[txsting]

Cam Reddish - motor issues and performance red flags.

Jaxson Hayes - you said it.

Barrett - though he's a good piece with the right team, he needs the ball too much.  And considering what it would cost to go get him, I want no part of it.

Bol Bol - too much risk.  I wouldn't look at him above 17.

Hunter - I wouldn't hate this pick as much, but just don't see much upside.  Honestly, he's real similar to Prince.  Much rather find a way to get Culver.  If we make no move, Hunter falls to 8, and Culver is gone, then probably you have to pick him.

[txsting]

BTW, i'm high on Nassir Little but not at 10.  At 17 I'd be more than willing.  He's a hard worker, a ridiculous athlete (best bSPARQ score at his position in the draft, nbathlete.com), and he produced fairly well in limited minutes.  Cam Reddish had every chance to shine and didn't do much with it.  Nassir rightly played behind Cam Johnson and thus he wasn't going going to get big minutes.

[kg01]

Aw yeah, the 'heyul nawl' list.

- Bol - 7' 2-guard with questionable ball skills and health issues to boot.

- Grant Williams - PJ Tucker 2.0 (at best).  Could be a useful pro after some overseas-oning, certainly not a guy you draft.

- Hayes - There's probably 2 or 3 Hayes types in the GLeague or overseas right now.  May as well sign one-a them instead of wasting a top pick and 4 years to find out Hayes is 3 years away from being 2 years away from being a GLeague lifer.  Ooooh but he's a killa against them chairs in that one workout I saw.

- Carsen Edwards - This one's a curveball just to toss another name out.  Take everything the naysayers naysaid about Trae last year.  Carsen is gonna be all that.  Too small, no position, shot-jakin', destitute man's Iverson.

I got more but I figured I'd save those for 'The cRap Session' podcast once me 'n @Spud2nique put it together. 

[Wretch]

Everybody's over it, I'm sure...  But I'm really not happy where we're picking. For what it's worth though, there's only one guy that I'm MEH on and don't want -  Jaxon Hayes.  All season long I've been uninterested and even after the lottery debacle, I'm still uninterested at 10.  

The rest are a mixed bag for me depending on where we would draft them.

I'm not really high on Reddish...but he has grown on me because I see the potential.  If he's there at 8, we have to take him...but I'm won't be doing cartwheels and flips.  I'll be in a cautiously optimistic "wait and see mode."

I don't like Hunter at 8, but if that's what we have to go with I'm ok.  Seems like an all around solid player, but worried about his ceiling.  Same with Brandon Clarke at 10 and he seems a little...stiff.

Problem is, I'm still bummed about where our picks landed.  My wing wishlist was Culver, Barrett, Langford, Cam, and Hunter and we're on the back end of it.  Langford was my #2 behind Barrett until his stock started falling.  I still like him if he's there at 17.

Ultimately, I hope to be pleasantly surprised by Schlenk's scouting and vision.

 

[Peoriabird]

R.J Barrett...Would be disastrous for the Hawks.  Tunnel vision offensive player and horrible defender .4 bpg/.6 spg...

Trae young averaged 1.7 spg in college

Cam Reddish...Has Bust written al over him especially if he can't even spot up shoot.  Defense is even overrated  1.6 spg .6 bpg

Nassir Little At 8/10 Too much of a project for a lottery pick plus is undersized for his position

Rui Hachimura

[NBASupes]

Culver - Backup 2, no star qualities, just a guy, high end one but just a guy. 

Bol - don't fit but he is one of my top 5 talents. We would have to create a system for him and that's not happening

Keldon - I don't think he is any good

Rui- don't like the fit with John. A waste if drafted as a backup

Barrett - don't like the fit honestly.

Any top pg- we got Trae, waste of pick.

[kg01]

11 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

R.J Barrett...Would be disastrous for the Hawks.  Tunnel vision offensive player and horrible defender .4 bpg/.6 spg...

Trae young averaged 1.7 spg in college

Cam Reddish...Has Bust written al over him especially if he can't even spot up shoot.  Defense is even overrated  1.6 spg .6 bpg

Nassir Little At 8/10 Too much of a project for a lottery pick plus is undersized for his position

Rui Hachimura

James Har_en was #2 in the league in spg.  Jussayin'.

[Peoriabird]

7 minutes ago, kg01 said:

James Har_en was #2 in the league in spg.  Jussayin'.

Houston was in the conference finals last year and in the Semi final this year... And a 10 ten defense team this year. So what's your point?

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

Aw yeah, the 'heyul nawl' list.

- Bol - 7' 2-guard with questionable ball skills and health issues to boot.

- Grant Williams - PJ Tucker 2.0 (at best).  Could be a useful pro after some overseas-oning, certainly not a guy you draft.

- Hayes - There's probably 2 or 3 Hayes types in the GLeague or overseas right now.  May as well sign one-a them instead of wasting a top pick and 4 years to find out Hayes is 3 years away from being 2 years away from being a GLeague lifer.  Ooooh but he's a killa against them chairs in that one workout I saw.

- Carsen Edwards - This one's a curveball just to toss another name out.  Take everything the naysayers naysaid about Trae last year.  Carsen is gonna be all that.  Too small, no position, shot-jakin', destitute man's Iverson.

I got more but I figured I'd save those for 'The cRap Session' podcast once me 'n @Spud2nique put it together. 

Whenever you ready we put on the ‘s and test it out! 

[kg01]

16 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Houston was in the conference finals last year and in the Semi final this year... And a 10 ten defense team this year. So what's your point?

spg and bpg aren't sufficient stats to say how good/bad a guy's defense is.  And if you think Har_en contributed to that individually then I have some beachfront property in Kansas for sale.

[AHF]

21 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Houston was in the conference finals last year and in the Semi final this year... And a 10 ten defense team this year. So what's your point?

I think his point was that looking at steals and blocks as a proxy for defense is not a good approach.  A significant portion of guys who get a good number of steals do it by gambling instead of playing fundamental D; same but to a lesser extent for blocks.  For example, Tony Allen averaged 1.4 steals for his career but was an absolute elite perimeter defender.  Allen Iverson was a defensive liability but average 2.2 steals for his career because he would sell out his defensive positioning to go for steals.

Harden fits this profile.  Not a good defender at all (better than he used to be) but gets some defensive counting numbers.  His contribution to Houston's success is all about the offense he generates.  Total team defense is not a great proxy for individual performance because both Harden and Iverson played on some good defenses where those defense were all about what the other players on the team were doing.

Being a bad defender doesn't mean you don't bring even elite value to the team but defense is important and you can't judge that effectively by pointing to the steal and block counting stats.

(Edit:  And kg comes in to summarize this much more concisely.)

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

spg and bpg aren't sufficient stats to say how good/bad a guy's defense is.  And if you think Har_en contributed to that individually then I have some beachfront property in Kansas for sale.

 

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think his point was that looking at steals and blocks as a proxy for defense is not a good approach.  A significant portion of guys who get a good number of steals do it by gambling instead of playing fundamental D; same but to a lesser extent for blocks.  For example, Tony Allen averaged 1.4 steals for his career but was an absolute elite perimeter defender.  Allen Iverson was a defensive liability but average 2.2 steals for his career because he would sell out his defensive positioning to go for steals.

Harden fits this profile.  Not a good defender at all (better than he used to be) but gets some defensive counting numbers.  His contribution to Houston's success is all about the offense he generates.  Total team defense is not a great proxy for individual performance because both Harden and Iverson played on some good defenses where those defense were all about what the other players on the team were doing.

Being a bad defender doesn't mean you don't bring even elite value to the team but defense is important and you can't judge that effectively by pointing to the steal and block counting stats.

What you you use then?

[AHF]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

 

What you you use then?

You have to incorporate more than pure stats on defense because there isn't a publicly available stat that tracks whether you let your man get wide open or you stayed on him like glue.  So the eye test has to be a part of this.  I also look at the efg% that player gives up to his opponent (in Harden's case opposing SGs shot over 55% efg%), DBPM (0.3 for his career, 1.1 last season), etc.  

Clips like these show things that don't show up in steals, blocks, etc. but are critical on defense:

 

 

[kg01]

9 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

What you you use then?

Absolutely great question.  I'm of the belief that defensive prowess isn't something that lends itself well to "analytics" from individual to individual.

Many people use various defensive analytics but I don't buy any of them.  They're all impacted by the other guys on the floor with you so I feel they're all unreliable.

I say 'eye test' is best.

[gurpilo]

Culver - At 8 might be, do not trade up for him

Coby White - just do not fit here

Nassir Little - do not see the potential

Hachimura - do not fit, do not see the potential.

[AHF]

Do not want a big man at 8 or 10.  Give me some wangs.

I'm tempted to put Bol Bol here for me.  Questions about desire are never good.  That body and his injury scream red flag.  But if Schlenk believes in him enough to draft him then I'll be excited with his length and skill.  So he is one that I'll be glad we didn't take if we don't take him and excited about him if we do.

[Peoriabird]

28 minutes ago, AHF said:

Do not want a big man at 8 or 10.  Give me some wangs.

I'm tempted to put Bol Bol here for me.  Questions about desire are never good.  That body and his injury scream red flag.  But if Schlenk believes in him enough to draft him then I'll be excited with his length and skill.  So he is one that I'll be glad we didn't take if we don't take him and excited about him if we do.

You're an advanced metric guy...How could you want Reddish?

[AHF]

14 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

You're an advanced metric guy...How could your want Reddish?

The things going for Reddish are (a) numbers hurt by injury; (b) tools; and (c) fit.  If you believe the Duke numbers represent who he will be as an NBA player, there is no argument for him except as a flyer with one of our second round picks.  

Wings are hard to come by and acquire in the NBA and you can't have too many of them.  Non-star big men are becoming increasingly devalued in the NBA so I feel like we can wait until 17 to build some depth there unless Schlenk really believes in one of these guys.  From my less educated position, the draft profiles of a number of these big men expected to be drafted between 8 and 25 are pretty interchangable.  In constrast, someone like Sekou at 10 would have me pretty excited.