Projecting Trae's Production in Year 2....

[REHawksFan]

I've always been interested in the jump players experience from their Rookie Years to their 2nd years.  As sort of a simplistic way of looking at it, I went back and looked at the increases in production from year 1 to year 2 for several lottery pick PGs. Based on their increases or decreases in points and assists, I projected what Trae might look like this year offensively. This list is not all encompassing but I think it does hit most of them. My criteria was minimum 41 games played and I went back through the 2011 draft and then added in Westbrook, Curry, and Paul just because they've been at the top of the PG game for a while. 

Anyway, here are the 16 players I looked at with their pts and ast per 36 for years 1 and 2. I then calculated the Delta.  Things that jumped out to me:

• 14 of 16 increased in pts/36; Westbrook was identical while Dennis Smith, Jr. declined. However, that was due sharing the load with Luka last year as he attempted 4 fewer shots / 36 in Dallas before the trade
• Average points per 36 for these 16 players is 15.4 pts while the average Delta is 14.4% increase
• Nearly half (7 of 16) saw a DECREASE in assists from year 1 to year 2; without studying it, I'm wondering if their attempts went up which led to assists being fewer
• Average assists per 36 for these 16 players is 5.8 / average Delta is 8.9% increase
• Trae has the HIGHEST pts and assists for a rookie among all these players at 22.3 pts/36 and 9.4 ast/36
• IF Trae increases in year 2 just at the average rate for these 16 players, he would average 25.5 pts/36 and 10.2 ast/36

 

[NBASupes]

24/13

Could he average more? Sure but he will feed John, Cam, Len, Kev and Hunter. 

All Star lock 2020 in my opinion 

[Duff_Man]

I think Trae and John go over the 20ppg mark this season. Trae goes over 10apg. Huerter should land squarely in that 10-15ppg area.

Will be really fun to watch.

[Gray Mule]

I expect Collins, Huerter and Young all to be stronger as we are told that they have been working out during the off season.  This + they all will be more mature (older) and this should help them.  A lot of Young's assists came on those slam dunks that he instituted with his high lobs.  This should continue.

Lloyd has a great problem facing him in game one.  Who starts and who best fits with who?  With a team with little talent, this would be a horrible thing.  With all our youth and talent vs all our older, not always 100% healthy players, we all wonder how things will work out - - But, it will.....

[Plainview1981]

I don’t care about per 36 minute shifts. I’m more worried about Trae being efficient as opposed to scoring 25 PPG.

[hawkman]

I predicted ~25ppg and 9Apg. I'm sticking to it.

[Dejay]

Oh well, I have a little time on my hands, so I'll go with 21/11/4 as the stats...

[High5]

2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

24/13

Could he average more? Sure but he will feed John, Cam, Len, Kev and Hunter. 

All Star lock 2020 in my opinion 

No one in the history of the league has averaged 24/13. 

[REHawksFan]

24 minutes ago, High5 said:

No one in the history of the league has averaged 24/13. 

To be fair....no rookie in the history of the league has averaged 22+ pts / 9+ ast per 36 minutes. But that's exactly what Trae did last year so it's not out of the realm to think he improves on that. 

In fact, a 22/9 per 36 season has only happened 12 other times in the history of the NBA. 

Edited July 12, 2019 by REHawksFan

[enrique]

2 hours ago, Plainview1981 said:

I don’t care about per 36 minute shifts. I’m more worried about Trae being efficient as opposed to scoring 25 PPG.

I am with you on this. An increase in his efficiency (which I think is a no brainer based on Dec.-Mar. of last year) and an increase in his physicality and D are big items I am hoping for. I expect his per game numbers to rise as his minutes increase to 33-35 per game. To compare his per36 from this year should be a realistic projection for his actual per game this year with a slight bump.

[AHF]

I’m going to say 23.5 & 10 assuming that Trae gets the bump to 35 mpg.  

[AHF]

3 hours ago, Plainview1981 said:

I don’t care about per 36 minute shifts. I’m more worried about Trae being efficient as opposed to scoring 25 PPG.

Funny that you say that since the per 36 numbers combined with shooting %s are intended to focus on how efficient a player is as opposed to their sheer volume of stats.

[enrique]

27 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

To be fair....no rookie in the history of the league has averaged 22+ pts / 9+ ast per 36 minutes. But that's exactly what Trae did last year so it's not out of the realm to think he improves on that. 

In fact, only a 22/9 per 36 season has only happened 12 other times in the history of the NBA. 

Yes, what Trae did last year is all over the all-time rookie stats as well as the youngest in many areas. He had a GREAT rookie season. Somehow the only rookie that got consistent mention of being in Oscar Robertson territory was Luka. Nevertheless, your chart shows the ridiculous season Trae posted.

Unfortunately very few people could see beyond the perG and hype to see what a historic season Trae posted. Certainly expecting him to improve this year though:)

Edited July 12, 2019 by enrique

[NBASupes]

When I say Trae can go down as the GOAT PG. I mean it.

 

At the least we winning 44 games next year if we fairly healthy. 50 games is possible. 53-54 is optimal.

My starters are:
Trae 35 mins
Kevin 30 mins
Cam 30 mins
Collins 35 mins
Len 24 mins

6th man is Hunter 30 mins
7th man is Parker 24 mins

2nd unit Backups are Jones 15, Turner 13, Bembry 12 and Crabbe 10.

Parsons is the 12th man. Limited mins

Bruno is G league. Limited mins

Two way guys: Charlie Brown Jr. And hopefully Tajhere McCall

We need one more vet, hope its Shaun Livingston.

I think we will have two All Stars. Both rookies should make the usa/world game.

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, enrique said:

To compare his per36 from this year should be a realistic projection for his actual per game this year with a slight bump.

Agreed.  I expect a slight bump with him being better than last year due to how bad his first 60 days were but not quite the same level of prolific scoring that he had over the second half last year.  That is tough to sustain for an entire season.

[Blunt91]

21.5pts 9.3assists.  I want Trae to learn to play the passing Lanes.  He will never be a good one on one defender but may be if he could  contribute on that end with Steals.

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, Blunt91 said:

21.5pts 9.3assists.  I want Trae to learn to play the passing Lanes.  He will never be a good one on one defender but may be if he could  contribute on that end with Steals.

I rather he don't. Its one of those things you got or don't. I like his defense in the 2nd half where he was shot contesting a lot. I just want him to be a lot more disciplined on that end. 

Cam Reddish will help Trae and Kev a lot with his perimeter defensive chops and off ball defensive skills.

[High5]

32 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

To be fair....no rookie in the history of the league has averaged 22+ pts / 9+ ast per 36 minutes. But that's exactly what Trae did last year so it's not out of the realm to think he improves on that. 

In fact, a 22/9 per 36 season has only happened 12 other times in the history of the NBA. 

He may improve on his per36 numbers, but no way he averages 24/13. 

I'd be happy with an efficient 20/10. 

[Spud2nique]

Trae Young 2019-20 stats:

22.3 PPG

12.2 APG  (highest in NBA since John Stockton 1995)

3.5 RPG (3.7 for Trae last year)

1.4 SPG

0.2 BPG

Every stat increases except rebounds takes a .2 dip.

 

 

 

 

[REHawksFan]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Funny that you say that since the per 36 numbers combined with shooting %s are intended to focus on how efficient a player is as opposed to their sheer volume of stats.

Was thinking the same thing. IF he increases his efficiency while also playing closer to 35 min/ gm, his overall stats will skyrocket (unless of course he significantly reduces his attempts which I don't see happening).