Projecting Trae's Production in Year 2....

[High5]

39 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

If he increases his PT to 35 min a game he could pretty easily hit 10 a game with just a little progression. 

Heck, he could have had 10 last year if some of his teammates helped him out on wide open jumpers. 

Better shooting team. Better Trae. More assists imo.

I don't think 35 minutes is a sure thing and I'm also not totally sold on us having better shooters. We've replaced Dedmon with Bruno/Jones and traded Baze for Turner. 2 of the projected good shooters are rookies. We'll see.

LP has also talked about Trae playing off of the ball more. Which could be great for the offense but won't help his assist totals. 

[NBASupes]

4 hours ago, High5 said:

I don't think 35 minutes is a sure thing and I'm also not totally sold on us having better shooters. We've replaced Dedmon with Bruno/Jones and traded Baze for Turner. 2 of the projected good shooters are rookies. We'll see.

LP has also talked about Trae playing off of the ball more. Which could be great for the offense but won't help his assist totals. 

I am. Why? 

Len while not being as versatile on both ends as Dedmon draws centers while Dedmon draws 4s. This should really open up John's game offensively even more. Add that John could up his 3pt accuracy to 40% and that would be a game changer. 

Kevin was 38%, why not 42-44%

Trae was 33, why not 36-37% with the same volume. 

Len was 36, why not 39% with more volume. 

 

I think we could be much better. 

 

Now obviously Turner to Lin is a drop off in percentage and attempts. 

VC gave us a rare 39% with crazy attempts, Parker might not be able to match that but we will see. 

Crabbe is a better shooter than Dorsey

Reddish and Hunter are much better shooters than Prince and Bazemore. 

Jones is nowhere close to Len

Our bench got better on D but worse shooting and in fit but that's okay considering they have more talent than what we had before and we needed more talent in depth. 

 

[High5]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

I am. Why? 

Len while not being as versatile on both ends as Dedmon draws centers while Dedmon draws 4s. This should really open up John's game offensively even more. Add that John could up his 3pt accuracy to 40% and that would be a game changer. 

Kevin was 38%, why not 42-44%

Trae was 33, why not 36-37% with the same volume. 

Len was 36, why not 39% with more volume. 

 

I think we could be much better. 

 

Now obviously Turner to Lin is a drop off in percentage and attempts. 

VC gave us a rare 39% with crazy attempts, Parker might not be able to match that but we will see. 

Crabbe is a better shooter than Dorsey

Reddish and Hunter are much better shooters than Prince and Bazemore. 

Jones is nowhere close to Len

Our bench got better on D but worse shooting and in fit but that's okay considering they have more talent than what we had before and we needed more talent in depth. 

 

You're bumping Collins to 40% when he shot a below average 34.8% last season. You're bumping Huerter to 42-44% when Klay Thompson has only been in that range 3 times. You're bumping Len to 39% when only one center shot that well last season (KAT at 40%). These are elite numbers across the board that you're casually expecting. Except for Trae, oddly. 36-37% is quite tame after the 24/13 prediction yesterday. 

KB used to predict doom and gloom around every corner and now we have you on the other end of the spectrum. I hope you're right more often than he was. 

Edited July 14, 2019 by High5

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, High5 said:

You're bumping Collins to 40% when he shot a below average 34.8% last season. You're bumping Huerter to 42-44% when Klay Thompson has only been in that range 3 times. You're bumping Len to 39% when only one center shot that well last season (KAT at 40%). These are elite numbers across the board that you're casually expecting. Except for Trae, oddly. 36-37% is quite tame after the 24/13 prediction yesterday. 

KB used to predict doom and gloom around every corner and now we have you on the other end of the spectrum. I hope you're right more often than he was. 

I am not bumping him up to 40, I am saying, it's possible. Why not? If we improve the way we can, it's possible. 

I bumped Len to that because Dedmon was 35 and he was 39 last year. KAT shoots it at a much higher volume and shoots it contested. Len will be wide open for a vast majority of his threes. Not the same quality of threes. 

Kev was 39 as a rookie. Kev doesn't take anywhere near the volume that Klay does and likely never will. He doesn't have that versatile of a shot catalog and his off ball skills aren't that good much less Klay elite's level. 

Trae volume will likely see him closer to his eye test averages. I can't see it being much higher than this unless he improves his off ball skills. 

You can't look at the number. Quality is most important. 

[High5]

24 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I am not bumping him up to 40, I am saying, it's possible. Why not? If we improve the way we can, it's possible. 

I bumped Len to that because Dedmon was 35 and he was 39 last year. KAT shoots it at a much higher volume and shoots it contested. Len will be wide open for a vast majority of his threes. Not the same quality of threes. 

Kev was 39 as a rookie. Kev doesn't take anywhere near the volume that Klay does and likely never will. He doesn't have that versatile of a shot catalog and his off ball skills aren't that good much less Klay elite's level. 

Trae volume will likely see him closer to his eye test averages. I can't see it being much higher than this unless he improves his off ball skills. 

You can't look at the number. Quality is most important. 

We're literally talking about the numbers and then you say don't look at the numbers.

"Why not?" is not an argument for Collins becoming a 40% shooter.

Huerter being worse than Klay is not an argument for him shooting a better percentage from 3.

KAT taking contested 3's is not an argument for Len doing what no other center did last season.

And "Trae volume will likely see him close to his eye test averages" is one of your weirder sentences. 

It's 4:35 AM so maybe this is not a good time for me to be reading this stuff.  

[NBASupes]

26 minutes ago, High5 said:

We're literally talking about the numbers and then you say don't look at the numbers.

"Why not?" is not an argument for Collins becoming a 40% shooter.

Huerter being worse than Klay is not an argument for him shooting a better percentage from 3.

KAT taking contested 3's is not an argument for Len doing what no other center did last season.

And "Trae volume will likely see him close to his eye test averages" is one of your weirder sentences. 

It's 4:35 AM so maybe this is not a good time for me to be reading this stuff.  

I didn't say that. I said the quality is not the same. 

Kev's threes will never have the volume of Klay's, if it did, his percentage would dwindle but boosting his percentage is good. Joe Harris shoots at a tremendous percentage but he will never shoot as many as Klay. 

I don't even know what we are even talking about anymore. Seems like you misunderstood my post. 

[JayBirdHawk]

At the quarter pole, who's winning?

Trae is averaging 28.2ppg with 8.3apg. 38.5% from 3.

[AHawks89]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

At the quarter pole, who's winning?

Trae is averaging 28.2ppg with 8.3apg. 38.5% from 3.

I think it takes ESPN a day after the game to update their stats. Not that it matters or a huge difference but it sure does look prettier 

 

Trae average 28.7 ppg with 8.4 apg and 39.3% from 3. 

[REHawksFan]

6 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

At the quarter pole, who's winning?

Trae is averaging 28.2ppg with 8.3apg. 38.5% from 3.

My projections from the original post were working off the avg of the other players. Trae has outscored that avg by about 4 pts but is well below the expected ast number. I'm attributing that to not having Bonehead for the last 17 games AND generally not having guys that can fill it up like TP and Dedmon from last year. 

Trae just continues to boggle the mind how good he is and how he keeps getting better. 

 

[NBASupes]

9 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

At the quarter pole, who's winning?

Trae is averaging 28.2ppg with 8.3apg. 38.5% from 3.

I miscalculated him. 24/13. We don't have the players for him to get 13 assists a game 

[Spud2nique]

9 hours ago, AHawks89 said:

I think it takes ESPN a day after the game to update their stats. Not that it matters or a huge difference but it sure does look prettier 

 

Trae average 28.7 ppg with 8.4 apg and 39.3% from 3. 

I know!!! I was like damn what’s with this staff. BSPN is a huge company but apparently they stink at getting the info updated  

[Atlantaholic]

His increase in FTs and three point % are the key to his offensive expansion. It's incredible how savy he has become in drawing fouls. Honestly, if he was getting the Harden treatment he would probably haver 3 more attempts a game because a lot of the fouls he draws on the perimeter where he throws the ball up as he is getting hit are called shooting fouls routinely for Harden and other stars.

[AHF]

I low-balled his scoring.  I don't think he finishes near the 23.5 ppg I predicted even with Huert and JC healthy.  He is going to be 4-5 points better than that this year.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I low-balled his scoring.  I don't think he finishes near the 23.5 ppg I predicted even with Huert and JC healthy.  He is going to be 4-5 points better than that this year.

From this thread, I overestimated everyone but Trae and Jones. 

[Spud2nique]

On 7/12/2019 at 8:41 AM, Spud2nique said:

Trae Young 2019-20 stats:

22.3 PPG

12.2 APG  (highest in NBA since John Stockton 1995)

Wow I underestimated the scoring big time he came out baby Allen Ivy when I was thinking more Nashy/Stocky. 
 

I do believe this has some things to do with the absence of Collins.

I still believe he’s gonna get double digit assists soon, next year if not this season. 

[turnermx]

11 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Wow I underestimated the scoring big time he came out baby Allen Ivy when I was thinking more Nashy/Stocky. 
 

I do believe this has some things to do with the absence of Collins.

I still believe he’s gonna get double digit assists soon, next year if not this season. 

I think the assists would have been accurate with Collins and Heurter both healthy, in the most ideal scenario for Trae, he would have the money outside shooter and Collins then also the spacing that Heurter and Collins would create for Trae [EDIT: and TEAM!] yes the whole team would get better looks from 3. Also would allow him to score more efficiently with fewer shot attempts and more FTs, so not only would have more assists he would score just as much if not more. This is a 21 year old kid. Imagine what he will be capable of in his prime!

[REHawksFan]

On 7/12/2019 at 12:53 PM, REHawksFan said:

Was thinking the same thing. IF he increases his efficiency while also playing closer to 35 min/ gm, his overall stats will skyrocket (unless of course he significantly reduces his attempts which I don't see happening). 

Damn. This is EXACTLY what has happened through first quarter of season. Trae currently sitting at 34.6 min/gm with increased efficiency and his numbers have skyrocketed to 28.9 pts/gm.  I still maintain that IF he had a decent roster around him he'd be over 10 dimes per game as well. Bonehead needs to be ready when he gets back.   

[hawkman]

2 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

Damn. This is EXACTLY what has happened through first quarter of season. Trae currently sitting at 34.6 min/gm with increased efficiency and his numbers have skyrocketed to 28.9 pts/gm.  I still maintain that IF he had a decent roster around him he'd be over 10 dimes per game as well. Bonehead needs to be ready when he gets back.   

 Agreed. Save the apology. He can make up for his abysmal decision making by being the 20ppg 10rpg 2bpg monster he was on the way to becoming before his suspension. No more self inflicted wounds or self sabotage. 

[enrique]

On 12/6/2019 at 11:36 AM, turnermx said:

I think the assists would have been accurate with Collins and Heurter both healthy, in the most ideal scenario for Trae, he would have the money outside shooter and Collins then also the spacing that Heurter and Collins would create for Trae [EDIT: and TEAM!] yes the whole team would get better looks from 3. Also would allow him to score more efficiently with fewer shot attempts and more FTs, so not only would have more assists he would score just as much if not more. This is a 21 year old kid. Imagine what he will be capable of in his prime!

The painful reality so far this season for the Hawks is that even wide-open looks from 3-land have not fallen with the exception of Trae. We are dead last in 3pt%...note that is including Trae's numbers It is going to be incredibly helpful to have Huerter back...shooting, vision, passing, effort...such a help. It will be interesting to see how it effects his assist numbers. 

[Atlantaholic]

13 hours ago, enrique said:

The painful reality so far this season for the Hawks is that even wide-open looks from 3-land have not fallen with the exception of Trae. We are dead last in 3pt%...note that is including Trae's numbers It is going to be incredibly helpful to have Huerter back...shooting, vision, passing, effort...such a help. It will be interesting to see how it effects his assist numbers. 

The encouraging thing about the Hawks is that they almost certainly can't shoot worse from three then they have been. Less minutes for Bembry and Turner will certainly help in that department once we get Heurter to 100% and playing 30+minutes a game. I also expect Parker's and Cam's %s to rise.