KEEPING ALL OF US REAL !!

[hazer]

49 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I think I heard Schlenk say that free agents sign with teams because they want to win...This off season doesn't support such a belief.  I was all in last year but this I have to take a step back and see where Schlenk is going with this plan.

 

15 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think that is his pitch that we'll have more appeal to FAs as we start winning more games.  Last year we were a bottom 5 team so you wouldn't expect that to translate to big FA appeal (not that I think we were aggressively pursuing many people this offseason).

So I took that statement to be more of one for optimism for the future.

It’s a chess match @Peoriabird, plotting many moves in advance. The long game. Patience. Same exact plan Colonel Schlank has stated all along. I was scoffed at last year by even suggesting Hawks might accidentally sneak into the playoffs this 3rd year of the rebuild without actually trying for the 8th spot. Most everyone on this board expects/ed ‘20-‘21 to be the season where Schlenk swerves out into the passing lane and stomps the gas pedal. ‘20-‘21 based on pruning the roster of holdover pieces who no longer fit, his own draft picks, El-P’s intense development of said picks via Hawks U, further accumulation of assets, fit/chemistry, and expiring contracts/cap space. Perfect storm, it’s only continuing to build this year, the rain starts falling next year, the wrath is unleashed thereafter. It’s always been the blueprint, he’s laid it out for us since Day 1.

Edited August 13, 2019 by hazer

[Peoriabird]

16 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think that is his pitch that we'll have more appeal to FAs as we start winning more games.  Last year we were a bottom 5 team so you wouldn't expect that to translate to big FA appeal (not that I think we were aggressively pursuing many people this offseason).

So I took that statement to be more of one for optimism for the future.

Yeah but if you don't even try to demonstrate that you are trying to win by signing a guy in Dedmon who wanted to be here for example or perusing a low level center like WCS, what good will all that money be next summer if we win 35 games this year?

[hazer]

14 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Yeah but if you don't even try to demonstrate that you are trying to win by signing a guy in Dedmon who wanted to be here for example or perusing a low level center like WCS, what good will all that money be next summer if we win 35 games this year?

“In 405 minutes of play, the Hawks have a net rating of -3.5 when Collins and Dedmon are playing together, 4 points better than the Hawks overall net rating of -7.5. Their ability to rebound on defense is slightly above league average. Lineups with those two at the 4 and 5 produce an effective field goal percentage of a top-5 offensive team, but just league average as measured by true shooting percentage, which takes free throws into account.

Collins and Dedmon are fairly redundant in some ways. Both are effective operating in the pick-and-roll and are about equally effective working off of the ball to provide spacing. Right now, Dedmon is the better spot up shooter while Collins is significantly better attacking close out defenders. Given his speed, Collins offers significantly more value in transition although Dedmon is not slow and plays with one of the best motors in the league.

Collins and Len have logged 140 minutes together at the power forward and center positions. Lineups with this configuration have produced a net rating of +11.2. The defensive rebound rate of 76.9 percent is better than any team’s season-long mark in the league. The offensive production is representative of a top-5 offense, as measured by both effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage.

Len’s growing confidence as a shooter help this duo function relatively well on offense. Len works with solid footwork in the pick-and-roll but can’t work at the high pace Collins exudes in every part of his game. Defensively, they, in the available sample size, have produced a defensive rating that is better than the mark of the best defensive team in the league. Len’s sheer size in combination with his decent mobility help offset some of the defensive liability presented by Collins’ lack of length.”

https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2019/1/8/18172697/atlanta-hawks-john-collins-center-power-forward-big-man-future-analysis

Hawks have their starting C in Len (who outperformed Dedmon) and drafted their backup in Fernando (who’s known as a very hard worker and fast learner). If Len continues and/or improves his nimbers, Hawks are in good shape and he very well may be re-signed. If Bruno continues his rep of working hard and improving fast, Hawks in good shape at backup C until he develops into a starting force. PLUS Hawks have dual-max cap space starting next year (if Oleksiy is traded at the deadline for more draft picks).

Edited August 13, 2019 by hazer

[AHF]

18 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Yeah but if you don't even try to demonstrate that you are trying to win by signing a guy in Dedmon who wanted to be here for example or perusing a low level center like WCS, what good will all that money be next summer if we win 35 games this year?

Dedmon isn't a real difference maker.  I think Reddish and Hunter will be much more meaningful than a rotation veteran big man.  Dedmon is a good and useful player but not someone to swerve out of your lane to make sure you keep (to continue with @hazer's analogy).  I don't think FAs will particularly care about Dedmon. 

We will need to demonstrate we are willing to spend on something other than first round picks when we want to go after FAs but that isn't hard to do.  Today our big spending goes to acquire first round picks.

[Peoriabird]

17 minutes ago, AHF said:

Dedmon isn't a real difference maker.  I think Reddish and Hunter will be much more meaningful than a rotation veteran big man.  Dedmon is a good and useful player but not someone to swerve out of your lane to make sure you keep (to continue with @hazer's analogy).  I don't think FAs will particularly care about Dedmon. 

We will need to demonstrate we are willing to spend on something other than first round picks when we want to go after FAs but that isn't hard to do.  Today our big spending goes to acquire first round picks.

He isn't a real difference make but at the very least he is depth.  Plus the guy was improving year after year so you don't know where his ceiling was yet.  The other 2 centers on the team have not even proven to be NBA players yet so if Len is injured or in foul trouble, we basically don't have an NBA grade center available. Therefore I have to question the construction of this team.  The same argument can be made regarding the point guard position also.

[AHF]

23 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

He isn't a real difference make but at the very least he is depth.  Plus the guy was improving year after year so you don't know where his ceiling was yet.  The other 2 centers on the team have not even proven to be NBA players yet so if Len is injured or in foul trouble, we basically don't have an NBA grade center available. Therefore I have to question the construction of this team.  The same argument can be made regarding the point guard position also.

I think for a team that deliberately did not construct itself to win this year that you don't have to worry about overpaying to keep a 30 year old rotation center.  I think you do know his ceiling (didn't do much improving last year) and that it isn't important to pick up a few wins by having him on the roster this season.  A player like Dedmon really delivers value for you where every win counts and you want to add a couple to your season total and have another option for the playoffs (none of which is a real concern for this season).  I think Schlenk wants the focus this year on player development and getting another lottery pick.

The point guard position is even easier.  You have the present and future in Trae Young.  The only way that gets complicated is if (knock on wood) there is a major injury.  Otherwise, you are just giving 14 minutes per game to someone to hold down the fort while he gets a breather.

[hazer]

15 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

He isn't a real difference make but at the very least he is depth.  Plus the guy was improving year after year so you don't know where his ceiling was yet.  The other 2 centers on the team have not even proven to be NBA players yet so if Len is injured or in foul trouble, we basically don't have an NBA grade center available. Therefore I have to question the construction of this team.  The same argument can be made regarding the point guard position also.

You don’t sign Dedmon for the money he got just for depth going forward. There was slight overlap/redundancy with Collins, and he’s 30. But you do sign 7’ 250lb 7’4 wingspan 24 year old Damian Jones, who Col Schlank scouted/drafted in the 1st round while at GS, who started the first 22 games of 2018 for World Champs and perennial Finalists Warriors before his injury, for $1.2mill. He’s more of a rim protector, which Hawks need down low. Younger, better fit, more affordable, savvy move.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, hazer said:

You don’t sign Dedmon for the money he got just for depth going forward. There was slight overlap/redundancy with Collins, and he’s 30. But you do sign 7’ 250lb 7’4 wingspan 24 year old Damian Jones, who Col Schlank scouted/drafted in the 1st round while at GS, who started the first 22 games of 2018 for World Champs and perennial Finalists Warriors before his injury, for $1.2mill. He’s more of a rim protector, which Hawks need down low. Younger, better fit, more affordable, savvy move.

I'm much less optimistic about Jones than you are.  He is definitely younger and more affordable but I think he is a downgrade and very questionable if he has a future on this roster.  But Schlenk knows him pretty well and his best play has been as a rim runner so there is a potential fit there given Trae's skills delivering the ball to a big.

[hazer]

36 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

The same argument can be made regarding the point guard position also.

There aren’t going to be very minutes behind future MVP candidate Ice TrATL, barring injury.

Also there’s this: Young/Evans/Bembry/Reddish 

Edited August 13, 2019 by hazer

[Peoriabird]

9 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think for a team that deliberately did not construct itself to win this year

Which takes me back to my original point.  If you are going to win this year and Schlenk himself thinks that winning encourages free agents to sign with you, then How do you sign significant free agents to a losing situation?

[hazer]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

I'm much less optimistic about Jones than you are.  He is definitely younger and more affordable but I think he is a downgrade and very questionable if he has a future on this roster.  But Schlenk knows him pretty well and his best play has been as a rim runner so there is a potential fit there given Trae's skills delivering the ball to a big.

I don’t expect too much from him either, mostly 3rd-stringer after Bruno steps up. Nice profile and price for a temp 2nd-stringer and eventual 3rd-stringer. And may prove to be a valuable and affordable 2nd/3rd stringer C going forward. That’s all I’m looking for out of DJ, Spuds on the other hand thinks this cat can beat out Oleksiy for the starting job. I’m not hopping in that boat, more of the opinion he’ll be battling Bruno for 2nd in line.

[NBASupes]

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&GroupQuantity=2&TeamID=1610612737&sort=OFF_RATING&dir=1

 

.4 +/-

Trae/Len is bad. Yep, I wouldn't be surprised if Jones is the starter at some point. Even Bruno

Edited August 13, 2019 by NBASupes

[Peoriabird]

17 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think for a team that deliberately did not construct itself to win this year that you don't have to worry about overpaying to keep a 30 year old rotation center.  I think you do know his ceiling (didn't do much improving last year) and that it isn't important to pick up a few wins by having him on the roster this season.  A player like Dedmon really delivers value for you where every win counts and you want to add a couple to your season total and have another option for the playoffs (none of which is a real concern for this season).  I think Schlenk wants the focus this year on player development and getting another lottery pick.

I knew you guys would just focus on Dedmon if I mention him as an example but i did mention Willie Cauley Stein too but y'all chose to ignore that.  My point was that we need NBA grade depth to be successful and that just isn't the case at center.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

I knew you guys would just focus on Dedmon if I mention him as an example but i did mention Willie Cauley Stein too but y'all chose to ignore that.  My point was that we need NBA grade depth to be successful and that just isn't the case at center.

I have no idea if we ever had a chance with WCS.  He signed with GS so that opens the possibility that he wanted to sign with an "elite" franchise and wouldn't consider an up and coming one.  If we passed on  him at that price, I've just got no explanation for that.  He is plenty young enough to be a long-term add and has development ahead of him if he wants to be more than he is today.

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

Which takes me back to my original point.  If you are going to win this year and Schlenk himself thinks that winning encourages free agents to sign with you, then How do you sign significant free agents to a losing situation?

I think the notion is that we will be better this season through organic growth and that free agents will be attracted to emerging young stars like we will have between Trae, JC, Huerter, Reddish, Hunter and TBD 2020 draft choice(s).  I assume we didn't go after many people other than Parker and that this offseason is more a reflection of our lack of interest than our ability to sign role player FAs.

[Peoriabird]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think the notion is that we will be better this season through organic growth and that free agents will be attracted to emerging young stars like we will have between Trae, JC, Huerter, Reddish, Hunter and TBD 2020 draft choice(s).  I assume we didn't go after many people other than Parker and that this offseason is more a reflection of our lack of interest than our ability to sign role player FAs.

And if we don't even resign Len because he becomes too expensive while not signing any other major free agent next summer and taking on more salary dumps, will you then start to wonder?

[Gray Mule]

Getting over one hump in the road at a time. 

We can all recall last season when we were fighting to close out the season with that elusive 30th victory.  We didn't make it.  If the Hawks improve enough, as some of us believe, the win #41 will be out there waiting for us near the finish line.  That will be winning half our games.  12 more victories in the season!

Just think for a minute.  Hawks have less than half of the players that finished last season here.  Will the players that were traded for mean more wins for the Hawks?  How many more wins will our three new players, rookies, drafted this summer be able to bring us?  Another year's experience for our young core of players and our head coach and his staff - - The possibilities seem to be there.

In case of emergency, break glass.  In case of emergency, if, heaven forbid, our PG is out for some time, we call up our 2 way PG from the G league.  Hope this never happens.  We also have another 2 way guard there.  Keep an eye on these two.

Defense.  Has our young core of Hawks matured enough to begin to learn to play some Lloyd Pierce defense?  All three draft picks were drafted with defense in mind.  Our new, young center is noted more for defense than offense.  Hawks need to begin to play some decent defense this season.

[Spud2nique]

1 minute ago, Gray Mule said:

defense

I honestly believe we will turn into a defensive team that gets key buckets in critical situation by our 80’s version of Isiah Zeke Thomas in Trae making the necessary plays on offense while Hunter, Cam and company put the clamps 🗜 on people.

Hawks 97

Raptors 92

This is the type of score I envision in a couple years. The spike on offense around the league will slowly return.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

And if we don't even resign Len because he becomes too expensive while not signing any other major free agent next summer and taking on more salary dumps, will you then start to wonder?

If we start letting go of our core because we don't want to pay for them, then I'll be extremely worried.  If we show ourselves to be ready for the playoffs this year, I'll be upset if we don't shift focus more towards upgrading the roster in the short-term.  I still don't mind taking on salary dumps if they are a good reward / return and we have the space.  The NBA champion Pistons had the chance to Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade (among others) days after winning a ring.  They screwed it up by going Darko but that could have propelled them into a dynasty status had they not dropped the ball so hard. 

[hazer]

2 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

And if we don't even resign Len because he becomes too expensive while not signing any other major free agent next summer and taking on more salary dumps, will you then start to wonder?

This is simply a worst-case hypothetical, and of course you start to wonder with any of a dozen worst-case hypotheticals you can dream up. There is no reason to believe that will happen though, as Schlenk already publicly laid out a blueprint that doesn’t follow that path. Ressler already stated he’ll spend, over the cap even, for the right player(s) at the right time. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, hazer said:

This is simply a worst-case hypothetical, and of course you start to wonder with any of a dozen worst-case hypotheticals you can dream up. There is no reason to believe that will happen though, as Schlenk already publicly laid out a blueprint that doesn’t follow that path. Ressler already stated he’ll spend, over the cap even, for the right player(s) at the right time. 

It isn't even a worst case scenario for me because I don't see Len as a foundational piece like I do Trae, Huerter, JC and (hopefully both but at least one of) Reddish and Hunter.  We could end up finishing with say the 10th worst record, grab the top pick in next year's draft with a lucky lottery pull and draft James Wiseman, waiving goodbye to Len.  You can come up with 10 other scenarios as well where I'm fine with letting Len walk.  We trade for Capela or Adams.  We sign Sabonis or Drummond.  Etc.   

Until he steps up his game big time, he is replaceable in my eyes.

Being replaceable also doesn't mean he might not have a long-term role with the team.  Role players can be both replaceable and important pieces to the puzzle.