Ask Supes

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

He's not a max cat at all right now. Let him bet high on himself or sign an ext deal similar to Sabonis

He went 25/10 over the last 2 months of the season.  He's gonna get the max man...either from us or someone.

[thecampster]

5 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

He's not a max cat at all right now. Let him bet high on himself or sign an ext deal similar to Sabonis

He went 25/10 over the last 2 months of the season.  He's gonna get the max man...either from us or someone.

 

He also shot almost 50% from 3 those last 18 games. He had 1.6 blocks per game for the season.

[NBASupes]

9 minutes ago, thecampster said:

He went 25/10 over the last 2 months of the season.  He's gonna get the max man...either from us or someone.

 

He also shot almost 50% from 3 those last 18 games. He had 1.6 blocks per game for the season.

And his WAR was close to 2. That's not a max player or even close impact wise. Literally has WAR moved .2 from JAN to MAR. Cam's moved 2.9 in that same period and I wouldn't consider Cam to be close the a max cat right now. Let's see his 2020-21 first before we crown him or let him extend for what Turner and Sabonis signed for.  This isn't 2012, raw stats don't mean shit. Teams aren't dying to pay for production on a team where someone has to score due to the lack of scoring options outside of Trae Young last year. Especially considering he was damn near in the top 25 in touches per game.  I think he was in the top 3 for touches for all bigs. Just look at see what Robert Covington garned up in a trade. Teams have smarten up. It's fans that are behind for the most part. 

Edited October 7, 2020 by NBASupes

[thecampster]

Some very simple math.

Of the guys who had at least 10 rebound per game last year. Only 1 broke 20 pts/game besides Collins.

1	Andre Drummond	C	26	TOT	57	56	33.0	7.3	13.8	.533	0.1	0.6	.143	7.2	13.1	.551	.536	3.0	5.2	.575	4.4	10.8	15.2	2.7	1.9	1.6	3.6	3.5	17.7
2	Giannis Antetokounmpo	PF	25	MIL	63	63	30.4	10.9	19.7	.553	1.4	4.7	.304	9.5	15.0	.631	.589	6.3	10.0	.633	2.2	11.4	13.6	5.6	1.0	1.0	3.7	3.1	29.5
3	Rudy Gobert	C	27	UTA	68	68	34.3	5.7	8.2	.693	0.0	0.0		5.7	8.2	.693	.693	3.7	5.9	.630	3.4	10.1	13.5	1.5	0.8	2.0	1.9	3.2	15.1
4	Hassan Whiteside	C	30	POR	67	61	30.0	6.5	10.5	.621	0.1	0.1	.571	6.4	10.4	.622	.624	2.4	3.6	.686	3.9	9.7	13.5	1.2	0.4	2.9	1.8	2.9	15.5
5	Domantas Sabonis	C	23	IND	62	62	34.8	7.4	13.7	.540	0.3	1.1	.254	7.1	12.6	.565	.550	3.5	4.8	.723	3.0	9.4	12.4	5.0	0.8	0.5	2.7	3.1	18.5
6	Jonas Valančiūnas	C	27	MEM	70	70	26.4	6.2	10.6	.585	0.5	1.3	.352	5.7	9.3	.617	.606	2.1	2.9	.740	3.0	8.2	11.3	1.9	0.4	1.1	1.8	2.6	14.9
7	Nikola Vučević	C	29	ORL	62	62	32.2	8.0	16.7	.477	1.6	4.7	.339	6.4	12.0	.531	.525	2.1	2.7	.784	2.3	8.6	10.9	3.6	0.9	0.8	1.4	2.2	19.6
8	Bam Adebayo	PF	22	MIA	72	72	33.6	6.1	11.0	.557	0.0	0.2	.143	6.1	10.8	.564	.558	3.7	5.3	.691	2.4	7.8	10.2	5.1	1.1	1.3	2.8	2.5	15.9
9	Tristan Thompson	C	28	CLE	57	51	30.2	5.1	9.9	.512	0.2	0.4	.391	4.9	9.5	.518	.520	1.7	2.8	.615	4.0	6.2	10.1	2.1	0.6	0.9	1.8	2.2	12.0
10	DeAndre Jordan	C	31	BRK	56	6	22.0	3.4	5.1	.666	0.0	0.0		3.4	5.1	.666	.666	1.5	2.2	.680	2.5	7.5	10.0	1.9	0.3	0.9	1.3	2.0	8.3

 

Of the 27 other players who averaged 20 or more points per game last year, only Lebron averaged 10 in any other category (assists). Of the 27 players who broke 20 or more points per game last year, only 2 average 1 block or better per game. Wiggins (1.0) and Porzingis (2.0).

Collins isn't on the list because of the games missed to start the season. Had he played enough games to qualify, he ranked 20th in points, 10th in blocks, 9th in rebounds while only offering 1.8 turnovers per game and shooting 58.3% from the floor.  

He's gonna get the max barring anything stupid happening.

[thecampster]

I'm really not going down this road and we're only talking about it because we're in the dead period. He's 22 and top 20 in 4 very important categories, top 10 in 3 (2nd FG%). He's gonna get paid...period.

[kg01]

No one in the NBA is getting paid what they "deserve".  Collins getting at or near his max isn't some egregious overpay.  No need to break down the WAR, WIP, SARS, or whatever acronym you wanna analyze.

Just need to come to grips with the fact that, in NBA math, 1+1 doesn't always equal 2.  It is what it is.

[NBASupes]

Major Update: 

Pacers, Lakers, Knicks w/ a dash of Wolves, Hawks, Thunder, Sixers, and Spurs. 

 

The biggest story I've been breaking is Indy interest in Mike D'Antoni and their interest in LaMelo Ball. Well, that interest hasn't gotten smaller but the trade talks have opened up as well as Mike D's expectation. Mike wants to get

A. A long term deal with a lot of security

B. A roster that fits his needs

C. A lead initiator he believes in which Indy currently doesn't have. 

As of right now, Indy has FINALLY put Myles Turner in the talks and have removed T.J. Warren and Oladipo. They have also added Doug McDermott. As of right now, they are just working out the minors details of the deal but it seems like it could be getting close to completion is what he has been told.

Another move is Oladipo who has garnered interest across the league. He was told that the Lakers have the best shot. He mention a possible four way deal with Ball to Indy including Atlanta landing Danny Green, Turner/Doug to MIN, Ball, LAL 1st, Kuzma, and Johnson to IND, and Oladipo to the LAL. 

The Lakers have identified KCP has the prime priority to resign and would love to keep Dwight, Morris, and Rondo. The big target for the Lakers will be Tristian Thompson and Josh Jackson in FA. He was told Cleveland will also try to resign TT. 

Knicks are not really talking to the media so they are having a tough time getting any trade details but my guy is thankfully connected to both orgs so he got some news for me. Same ole, same ole. The Knicks are NOT interested in trading a future 1st. They are NOT interested in trading either pick for players. They are only interested in trading players for players. Because if this, it's made them attractive for a CP3 trade but I've been told Philly is in the lead for CP3 and LAL is in the lead for Oladipo. 

The Knicks are actually trying to build their team the right way, they are being patience and don't want to get people hyped on moves that might not happen. 

Spurs are looking to trade LMA for a fit upgrade. He is still productive and he's a quality teammate. Expect suitors. SA big target is currently Al Horford. They aren't dying to trade Mills but he can be had if packaged with LMA is what I was told but they would prefer to keep Mills. 

[NBASupes]

20 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Some very simple math.

Of the guys who had at least 10 rebound per game last year. Only 1 broke 20 pts/game besides Collins.

1	Andre Drummond	C	26	TOT	57	56	33.0	7.3	13.8	.533	0.1	0.6	.143	7.2	13.1	.551	.536	3.0	5.2	.575	4.4	10.8	15.2	2.7	1.9	1.6	3.6	3.5	17.7
2	Giannis Antetokounmpo	PF	25	MIL	63	63	30.4	10.9	19.7	.553	1.4	4.7	.304	9.5	15.0	.631	.589	6.3	10.0	.633	2.2	11.4	13.6	5.6	1.0	1.0	3.7	3.1	29.5
3	Rudy Gobert	C	27	UTA	68	68	34.3	5.7	8.2	.693	0.0	0.0		5.7	8.2	.693	.693	3.7	5.9	.630	3.4	10.1	13.5	1.5	0.8	2.0	1.9	3.2	15.1
4	Hassan Whiteside	C	30	POR	67	61	30.0	6.5	10.5	.621	0.1	0.1	.571	6.4	10.4	.622	.624	2.4	3.6	.686	3.9	9.7	13.5	1.2	0.4	2.9	1.8	2.9	15.5
5	Domantas Sabonis	C	23	IND	62	62	34.8	7.4	13.7	.540	0.3	1.1	.254	7.1	12.6	.565	.550	3.5	4.8	.723	3.0	9.4	12.4	5.0	0.8	0.5	2.7	3.1	18.5
6	Jonas Valančiūnas	C	27	MEM	70	70	26.4	6.2	10.6	.585	0.5	1.3	.352	5.7	9.3	.617	.606	2.1	2.9	.740	3.0	8.2	11.3	1.9	0.4	1.1	1.8	2.6	14.9
7	Nikola Vučević	C	29	ORL	62	62	32.2	8.0	16.7	.477	1.6	4.7	.339	6.4	12.0	.531	.525	2.1	2.7	.784	2.3	8.6	10.9	3.6	0.9	0.8	1.4	2.2	19.6
8	Bam Adebayo	PF	22	MIA	72	72	33.6	6.1	11.0	.557	0.0	0.2	.143	6.1	10.8	.564	.558	3.7	5.3	.691	2.4	7.8	10.2	5.1	1.1	1.3	2.8	2.5	15.9
9	Tristan Thompson	C	28	CLE	57	51	30.2	5.1	9.9	.512	0.2	0.4	.391	4.9	9.5	.518	.520	1.7	2.8	.615	4.0	6.2	10.1	2.1	0.6	0.9	1.8	2.2	12.0
10	DeAndre Jordan	C	31	BRK	56	6	22.0	3.4	5.1	.666	0.0	0.0		3.4	5.1	.666	.666	1.5	2.2	.680	2.5	7.5	10.0	1.9	0.3	0.9	1.3	2.0	8.3

 

Of the 27 other players who averaged 20 or more points per game last year, only Lebron averaged 10 in any other category (assists). Of the 27 players who broke 20 or more points per game last year, only 2 average 1 block or better per game. Wiggins (1.0) and Porzingis (2.0).

Collins isn't on the list because of the games missed to start the season. Had he played enough games to qualify, he ranked 20th in points, 10th in blocks, 9th in rebounds while only offering 1.8 turnovers per game and shooting 58.3% from the floor.  

He's gonna get the max barring anything stupid happening.

There is literally no one in NBA circles thinking he should be a max cat. Not Michelle Leftwich. Not our GM. Not Hollinger who used to work for a NBA FO. Not the guy who Chris K. loves to bring to his articles who said he doesn't think Collins is a max cat. 

It's time to join 2020 my friend. The game has changed and impact is finally king. Not raw stats. 

Edited October 7, 2020 by NBASupes

[JayBirdHawk]

39 minutes ago, thecampster said:

2021 Collins is up for an extension and if he anywhere close to a season like he played down the stretch this year it will be for the max. The following year we will have to extend Trae so they need to spend it this year (IMHO).

 

I'm not sure I follow about spending all the cap this year. Collins' caphold for next season counts as $12 million against the cap (if he isn't extended this offseason). I'm not sure how the extension caphold works for an early extension for Trae and what to use against the cap to figure out our capspace to sign FAs.

[thecampster]

4 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'm not sure I follow about spending all the cap this year. Collins' caphold for next season counts as $12 million against the cap (if he isn't extended this offseason). I'm not sure how the extension caphold works for an early extension for Trae and what to use against the cap to figure out our capspace to sign FAs.

Not all. Dedmon comes off after 2021 freeing up most of the money for a Collins resign. Basically we need to come in about $5 million under the cap or sign a few 1 year players/trade for contracts expiring in 2021.

Collins is our own player so we can go over to sign him. The problem comes in 22. You still want to maintain flexibility in order to keep your players and not land in LT hell like GS. To do that you need to sign/trade those contracts now and not in a year so they're off the books in Trae's year and Cam/Hunter's year.

[NBASupes]

27 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I'm really not going down this road and we're only talking about it because we're in the dead period. He's 22 and top 20 in 4 very important categories, top 10 in 3 (2nd FG%). He's gonna get paid...period.

None of this means anything when it comes to winning: 

https://theathletic.com/1765266/2020/04/22/john-collins-deal-trae-youngs-ceiling-and-more-analytics-on-hawks-future/?article_source=search&search_query=John collins max

https://theathletic.com/1913398/2020/07/07/kirschner-hollinger-possible-trades-john-collins-deal-and-evaluations/?article_source=search&search_query=John collins max

[macdaddy]

20 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Major Update: 

Pacers, Lakers, Knicks w/ a dash of Wolves, Hawks, Thunder, Sixers, and Spurs. 

 

The biggest story I've been breaking is Indy interest in Mike D'Antoni and their interest in LaMelo Ball. Well, that interest hasn't gotten smaller but the trade talks have opened up as well as Mike D's expectation. Mike wants to get

A. A long term deal with a lot of security

B. A roster that fits his needs

C. A lead initiator he believes in which Indy currently doesn't have. 

As of right now, Indy has FINALLY put Myles Turner in the talks and have removed T.J. Warren and Oladipo. They have also added Doug McDermott. As of right now, they are just working out the minors details of the deal but it seems like it could be getting close to completion is what he has been told.

Another move is Oladipo who has garnered interest across the league. He was told that the Lakers have the best shot. He mention a possible four way deal with Ball to Indy including Atlanta landing Danny Green, Turner/Doug to MIN, Ball, LAL 1st, Kuzma, and Johnson to IND, and Oladipo to the LAL. 

The Lakers have identified KCP has the prime priority to resign and would love to keep Dwight, Morris, and Rondo. The big target for the Lakers will be Tristian Thompson and Josh Jackson in FA. He was told Cleveland will also try to resign TT. 

Knicks are not really talking to the media so they are having a tough time getting any trade details but my guy is thankfully connected to both orgs so he got some news for me. Same ole, same ole. The Knicks are NOT interested in trading a future 1st. They are NOT interested in trading either pick for players. They are only interested in trading players for players. Because if this, it's made them attractive for a CP3 trade but I've been told Philly is in the lead for CP3 and LAL is in the lead for Oladipo. 

The Knicks are actually trying to build their team the right way, they are being patience and don't want to get people hyped on moves that might not happen. 

Spurs are looking to trade LMA for a fit upgrade. He is still productive and he's a quality teammate. Expect suitors. SA big target is currently Al Horford. They aren't dying to trade Mills but he can be had if packaged with LMA is what I was told but they would prefer to keep Mills. 

Other than his age Danny Green would be nice off the bench for us.   Honestly these still sound like deals that everyone will get cold feet on.   

Interesting to me D'antoni would want what is honestly a rebuilding situation at Indy but at his age i guess getting something is better than waiting.

[NBASupes]

4 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Other than his age Danny Green would be nice off the bench for us.   Honestly these still sound like deals that everyone will get cold feet on.   

Interesting to me D'antoni would want what is honestly a rebuilding situation at Indy but at his age i guess getting something is better than waiting.

He really doesn't have the options but Indy has some impressive pieces for a MDA system. They just lack that guy who can make it all work. One thing I forgot to mention was resigning Holiday is considered a priority for them. 

[NBASupes]

20 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

 Honestly these still sound like deals that everyone will get cold feet on.   

The CP3 deal will happen this offseason as well as Oladipo. 

The Ball to Indy deal been going on for awhile. When we got our center, we were in talks for a very long time till the right deal became available. 

[bleachkit]

43 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

There is literally no one in NBA circles thinking he should be a max cat. Not Michelle Leftwich. Not our GM. Not Hollinger who used to work for a NBA FO. Not the guy who Chris K. loves to bring to his articles who said he doesn't think Collins is a max cat. 

It's time to join 2020 my friend. The game has changed and impact is finally king. Not raw stats. 

What if his representatives won't settle for less? Schlenk does not seem like one to play hardball.

[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

What if his representatives won't settle for less? Schlenk does not seem like one to play hardball.

They are a team, Travis isn't the only one making the decisions. Michelle has more impact on this than Travis even if Travis is the face. Tony has more impact on this than Travis even if Travis is the face. All JC can do take what's the best deal Atlanta gives to him or bet on himself for next year. It's not that difficult for JC but things are quickly changing, why not lock in what you perceive to be a very good deal when there is no guarantee that what you perceive to be a great deal will be on the table. So many guys have bet on themselves and failed while others have succeeded like Siakam. 

Edited October 7, 2020 by NBASupes

[macdaddy]

41 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

They are a team, Travis isn't the only one making the decisions. Michelle has more impact on this than Travis even if Travis is the face. Tony has more impact on this than Travis even if Travis is the face. All JC can do take what's the best deal Atlanta gives to him or bet on himself for next year. It's not that difficult for JC but things are quickly changing, why not lock in what you perceive to be a very good deal when there is no guarantee that what you perceive to be a great deal will be on the table. So many guys have bet on themselves and failed while others have succeeded like Siakam. 

The players know the deal.  Sure some are delusional and some just want every penny they can get but I'm doubting that JC thinks he has to/or is guaranteed to get the max.   Everyone around here was saying Sap was going to demand a super expensive deal and he took a really reasonable team friendly one from the Nuggets.   Apples and oranges in this situation but still. 

[NBASupes]

22 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

The players know the deal.  Sure some are delusional and some just want every penny they can get but I'm doubting that JC thinks he has to/or is guaranteed to get the max.   Everyone around here was saying Sap was going to demand a super expensive deal and he took a really reasonable team friendly one from the Nuggets.   Apples and oranges in this situation but still. 

Facts. Agents will seek out what their market is for that said player. 

[thecampster]

2 hours ago, macdaddy said:

The players know the deal.  Sure some are delusional and some just want every penny they can get but I'm doubting that JC thinks he has to/or is guaranteed to get the max.   Everyone around here was saying Sap was going to demand a super expensive deal and he took a really reasonable team friendly one from the Nuggets.   Apples and oranges in this situation but still. 

So again, I really don't want to nitpick this but there is a market for 2 max contracts per team. That's the basic structure of the cap. This means that in order to be capable of pulling a max contract you need to be a top 60 player in the league. Top 30 is almost a guarantee. You can say what you want and we can nitpick if 95% of max is really max or not but when a player is 2nd in FG%, 9th in rebounds, 10th in blocks, 20th in points and is only 22 years old, an easy argument can be made he's top 30.  Max contract players aren't all Lebron James. A max contract (not super max) for a player coming off of his rookie contract is 25% of the salary cap. With a cap of 109 million this year, that is $27.25 million. Is it really crazy to think that John Collins isn't going to get signed for that? What follows are players in that range and where their salary ranks in the NBA. Otto Porter, Andre Drummond, Hassan Whiteside, Jrue Holiday, are all making around that. That's the price to lock Collins up. Rookie max is not 10 year max.

24. Nikola Vucevic, Magic: $28,000,000

25. DeMar DeRozan, Spurs: $27,739,975

26. CJ McCollum, Trail Blazers: $27,556,959

27. Joel Embiid, Sixers: $27,504,630
28. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets: $27,504,630
29. Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves: $27,504,630

30. Devin Booker, Suns: $27,285,000
31. Kristaps Porzingis, Mavericks: $27,285,000
32. D’Angelo Russell, Warriors: $27,285,000
33. Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves: $27,285,000

34. Otto Porter, Bulls: $27,250,576

35. Andre Drummond, Pistons: $27,093,018 (8% trade kicker)

36. Bradley Beal, Wizards: $27,093,018
37. Anthony Davis, Lakers: $27,093,018
38. Hassan Whiteside, Trail Blazers: $27,093,018

39. Jrue Holiday, Pelicans: $26,231,111 (plus incentives)

40. LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs: $26,000,000 (15% trade kicker)

41. Steven Adams, Thunder: $25,842,697 (7.5% trade kicker)

42. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks: $25,842,697

Edited October 7, 2020 by thecampster

[marco102]

3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Major Update: 

Pacers, Lakers, Knicks w/ a dash of Wolves, Hawks, Thunder, Sixers, and Spurs. 

 

The biggest story I've been breaking is Indy interest in Mike D'Antoni and their interest in LaMelo Ball. Well, that interest hasn't gotten smaller but the trade talks have opened up as well as Mike D's expectation. Mike wants to get

A. A long term deal with a lot of security

B. A roster that fits his needs

C. A lead initiator he believes in which Indy currently doesn't have. 

As of right now, Indy has FINALLY put Myles Turner in the talks and have removed T.J. Warren and Oladipo. They have also added Doug McDermott. As of right now, they are just working out the minors details of the deal but it seems like it could be getting close to completion is what he has been told.

Another move is Oladipo who has garnered interest across the league. He was told that the Lakers have the best shot. He mention a possible four way deal with Ball to Indy including Atlanta landing Danny Green, Turner/Doug to MIN, Ball, LAL 1st, Kuzma, and Johnson to IND, and Oladipo to the LAL. 

The Lakers have identified KCP has the prime priority to resign and would love to keep Dwight, Morris, and Rondo. The big target for the Lakers will be Tristian Thompson and Josh Jackson in FA. He was told Cleveland will also try to resign TT. 

Knicks are not really talking to the media so they are having a tough time getting any trade details but my guy is thankfully connected to both orgs so he got some news for me. Same ole, same ole. The Knicks are NOT interested in trading a future 1st. They are NOT interested in trading either pick for players. They are only interested in trading players for players. Because if this, it's made them attractive for a CP3 trade but I've been told Philly is in the lead for CP3 and LAL is in the lead for Oladipo. 

The Knicks are actually trying to build their team the right way, they are being patience and don't want to get people hyped on moves that might not happen. 

Spurs are looking to trade LMA for a fit upgrade. He is still productive and he's a quality teammate. Expect suitors. SA big target is currently Al Horford. They aren't dying to trade Mills but he can be had if packaged with LMA is what I was told but they would prefer to keep Mills. 

@NBASupes why in the hell would the Hawks be in this trade without getting some compensation.  Danny GREEN?  Like he better be coming with some draft capital because you can get a Kyle Korver for a lot less and serve the same function.