Ask Supes

[macdaddy]

5 minutes ago, thecampster said:

So again, I really don't want to nitpick this but there is a market for 2 max contracts per team. That's the basic structure of the cap. This means that in order to be capable of pulling a max contract you need to be a top 60 player in the league. Top 30 is almost a guarantee. You can say what you want and we can nitpick if 95% of max is really max or not but when a player is 2nd in FG%, 9th in rebounds, 10th in blocks, 20th in points and is only 22 years old, an easy argument can be made he's top 30.  Max contract players aren't all Lebron James. A max contract (not super max) for a player coming off of his rookie contract is 25% of the salary cap. With a cap of 109 million this year, that is $27.25 million. Is it really crazy to think that John Collins isn't going to get signed for that? What follows are players in that range and where their salary ranks in the NBA. Otto Porter, Andre Drummond, Hassan Whiteside, Jrue Holiday, are all making around that. That's the price to lock Collins up. Rookie max is not 10 year max.

24. Nikola Vucevic, Magic: $28,000,000

25. DeMar DeRozan, Spurs: $27,739,975

26. CJ McCollum, Trail Blazers: $27,556,959

27. Joel Embiid, Sixers: $27,504,630
28. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets: $27,504,630
29. Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves: $27,504,630

30. Devin Booker, Suns: $27,285,000
31. Kristaps Porzingis, Mavericks: $27,285,000
32. D’Angelo Russell, Warriors: $27,285,000
33. Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves: $27,285,000

34. Otto Porter, Bulls: $27,250,576

35. Andre Drummond, Pistons: $27,093,018 (8% trade kicker)

36. Bradley Beal, Wizards: $27,093,018
37. Anthony Davis, Lakers: $27,093,018
38. Hassan Whiteside, Trail Blazers: $27,093,018

39. Jrue Holiday, Pelicans: $26,231,111 (plus incentives)

40. LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs: $26,000,000 (15% trade kicker)

41. Steven Adams, Thunder: $25,842,697 (7.5% trade kicker)

42. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks: $25,842,697

Well let me say that i'm fine with Collins getting whatever, including a max deal.  As long as he's a Hawk.  I just don't think it's a done deal.    I love JC.  Hell I think he may deserve a max but at the same time it's better for the Hawks to figure out if we can get him for less so we have room for more talent.  I mean just look at that list.  A bunch fall in the 'regret i gave them a max deal' category.  

[marco102]

13 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Well let me say that i'm fine with Collins getting whatever, including a max deal.  As long as he's a Hawk.  I just don't think it's a done deal.    I love JC.  Hell I think he may deserve a max but at the same time it's better for the Hawks to figure out if we can get him for less so we have room for more talent.  I mean just look at that list.  A bunch fall in the 'regret i gave them a max deal' category.  

I'm falling in between Supes and Camp here. I dont think Collins is getting a max. However, I think he'll get more than Sabonis. 

I'm rooting that Supes is correct that Collins will get the Sabonis deal because that'll def help the Hawks in the long run.

I will agree with Camp if Collins averages 25 and 10 on 60% and 50% from three for a season, he's probably getting a max.  I don't think the three point shooting is sustainable though. 

[JTB]

26 minutes ago, marco102 said:

I'm falling in between Supes and Camp here. I dont think Collins is getting a max. However, I think he'll get more than Sabonis. 

I'm rooting that Supes is correct that Collins will get the Sabonis deal because that'll def help the Hawks in the long run.

I will agree with Camp if Collins averages 25 and 10 on 60% and 50% from three for a season, he's probably getting a max.  I don't think the three point shooting is sustainable though. 

Agreed....I don’t think the 50% 3pt shooting is sustainable either however it wouldn’t shock me if he went 22 and 10 on 50% or above from the field and 38% on 3s and still got a max contract.

[terrell]

5 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Major Update: 

Pacers, Lakers, Knicks w/ a dash of Wolves, Hawks, Thunder, Sixers, and Spurs. 

 

The biggest story I've been breaking is Indy interest in Mike D'Antoni and their interest in LaMelo Ball. Well, that interest hasn't gotten smaller but the trade talks have opened up as well as Mike D's expectation. Mike wants to get

A. A long term deal with a lot of security

B. A roster that fits his needs

C. A lead initiator he believes in which Indy currently doesn't have. 

As of right now, Indy has FINALLY put Myles Turner in the talks and have removed T.J. Warren and Oladipo. They have also added Doug McDermott. As of right now, they are just working out the minors details of the deal but it seems like it could be getting close to completion is what he has been told.

Another move is Oladipo who has garnered interest across the league. He was told that the Lakers have the best shot. He mention a possible four way deal with Ball to Indy including Atlanta landing Danny Green, Turner/Doug to MIN, Ball, LAL 1st, Kuzma, and Johnson to IND, and Oladipo to the LAL. 

The Lakers have identified KCP has the prime priority to resign and would love to keep Dwight, Morris, and Rondo. The big target for the Lakers will be Tristian Thompson and Josh Jackson in FA. He was told Cleveland will also try to resign TT. 

Knicks are not really talking to the media so they are having a tough time getting any trade details but my guy is thankfully connected to both orgs so he got some news for me. Same ole, same ole. The Knicks are NOT interested in trading a future 1st. They are NOT interested in trading either pick for players. They are only interested in trading players for players. Because if this, it's made them attractive for a CP3 trade but I've been told Philly is in the lead for CP3 and LAL is in the lead for Oladipo. 

The Knicks are actually trying to build their team the right way, they are being patience and don't want to get people hyped on moves that might not happen. 

Spurs are looking to trade LMA for a fit upgrade. He is still productive and he's a quality teammate. Expect suitors. SA big target is currently Al Horford. They aren't dying to trade Mills but he can be had if packaged with LMA is what I was told but they would prefer to keep Mills. 

Wth we want with the Lakers trash? Danny Green is horrible!!!

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, JTB said:

Agreed....I don’t think the 50% 3pt shooting is sustainable either however it wouldn’t shock me if he went 22 and 10 on 50% or above from the field and 38% on 3s and still got a max contract.

He shot a ton of 3's last year. Shot 58% from the field and shot 141 threes last year making 40.1%. 50 and 38 would be a step back.

and the Hawks had 2 seasons last year. A 25 game stretch without John Collins where they went 4 and 21 and the other 42 games where they went 16 and 26.  .160 team without Collins, .381 team with Collins. Let that sink in. The man made that kind of a difference. The Hawks were bad last year with a whole cast of players getting minutes who didn't deserve it and others on the bench getting a paycheck. Your soft stats reflect who you play with. Your hard stats reflect what you're capable of. The man is gonna get paid.

Edited October 7, 2020 by thecampster

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, thecampster said:

He shot a ton of 3's last year. Shot 58% from the field and shot 141 threes last year making 40.1%. 50 and 38 would be a step back.

3pt% is notoriously unstable season to season.  

At age 22, Kevin Love shot 41.7%.  The 3 healthy seasons he shot 37.2%, 37.6% and 36.7%.

From age 22 to 23, KAT dropped 2% on his 3pt%.

Kevin Durant went from 42.2% to 36.5%.

Devin Booker went 38.2% and then dropped to 32.7% and 35.4% over the last 3 years.

etc.

If I were TS, I would be counting on some regression or volatility in that number.  JC shooting 38% next year would actually be a positive sign of stability in that skill.

[Dean Walker]

3 hours ago, marco102 said:

@NBASupes why in the hell would the Hawks be in this trade without getting some compensation.  Danny GREEN?  Like he better be coming with some draft capital because you can get a Kyle Korver for a lot less and serve the same function.

Yeah taking on Danny green makes 0 sense for us imo.

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

3pt% is notoriously unstable season to season.  

At age 22, Kevin Love shot 41.7%.  The 3 healthy seasons he shot 37.2%, 37.6% and 36.7%.

From age 22 to 23, KAT dropped 2% on his 3pt%.

Kevin Durant went from 42.2% to 36.5%.

Devin Booker went 38.2% and then dropped to 32.7% and 35.4% over the last 3 years.

etc.

If I were TS, I would be counting on some regression or volatility in that number.  JC shooting 38% next year would actually be a positive sign of stability in that skill.

I think we're missing the point though...a sample size of 140+ shots at 40 percent is enough to say he can and will do it the rest of his career. An eFG of 63.2% for a season is pretty ridiculous. He's 22 and has been increasingly productive each year. Its crazy to me to think some GM next year isn't giving him the max if he just holds serve.

[thecampster]

Just now, thecampster said:

I think we're missing the point though...a sample size of 140+ shots at 40 percent is enough to say he can and will do it the rest of his career. An eFG of 63.2% for a season is pretty ridiculous. He's 22 and has been increasingly productive each year. Its crazy to me to think some GM next year isn't giving him the max if he just holds serve.

Another year of similar numbers puts him in some pretty elite company. Plus we will have a major center upgrade this year. We played last year largely with fill in centers, people hurt, etc. The two rookies having a year under their belts, at least one quality player still to come in....The Hawks will win and dare I say be above .500 this year.  Do that and John/Trae will get much more attention.

[NBASupes]

3 hours ago, marco102 said:

@NBASupes why in the hell would the Hawks be in this trade without getting some compensation.  Danny GREEN?  Like he better be coming with some draft capital because you can get a Kyle Korver for a lot less and serve the same function.

Naw, he is free is basically what I got from it.

[NBASupes]

3 hours ago, thecampster said:

So again, I really don't want to nitpick this but there is a market for 2 max contracts per team. That's the basic structure of the cap. This means that in order to be capable of pulling a max contract you need to be a top 60 player in the league. Top 30 is almost a guarantee. You can say what you want and we can nitpick if 95% of max is really max or not but when a player is 2nd in FG%, 9th in rebounds, 10th in blocks, 20th in points and is only 22 years old, an easy argument can be made he's top 30.  Max contract players aren't all Lebron James. A max contract (not super max) for a player coming off of his rookie contract is 25% of the salary cap. With a cap of 109 million this year, that is $27.25 million. Is it really crazy to think that John Collins isn't going to get signed for that? What follows are players in that range and where their salary ranks in the NBA. Otto Porter, Andre Drummond, Hassan Whiteside, Jrue Holiday, are all making around that. That's the price to lock Collins up. Rookie max is not 10 year max.

24. Nikola Vucevic, Magic: $28,000,000

25. DeMar DeRozan, Spurs: $27,739,975

26. CJ McCollum, Trail Blazers: $27,556,959

27. Joel Embiid, Sixers: $27,504,630
28. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets: $27,504,630
29. Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves: $27,504,630

30. Devin Booker, Suns: $27,285,000
31. Kristaps Porzingis, Mavericks: $27,285,000
32. D’Angelo Russell, Warriors: $27,285,000
33. Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves: $27,285,000

34. Otto Porter, Bulls: $27,250,576

35. Andre Drummond, Pistons: $27,093,018 (8% trade kicker)

36. Bradley Beal, Wizards: $27,093,018
37. Anthony Davis, Lakers: $27,093,018
38. Hassan Whiteside, Trail Blazers: $27,093,018

39. Jrue Holiday, Pelicans: $26,231,111 (plus incentives)

40. LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs: $26,000,000 (15% trade kicker)

41. Steven Adams, Thunder: $25,842,697 (7.5% trade kicker)

42. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks: $25,842,697

Once again, you can't judge raw numbers guys to guys who proved they add to winning like the guys who are proven like most of the names above. Where is the guy who wasn't in the playoffs ever on this list? Devin Booker? All of these guys have won. Guys like Whiteside shouldn't even count, he won't get more than the MLE at max this offseason. 

This is a different era. Teams are more likely to pay Robert Covington who impact winning. The league has evolved.

Edited October 7, 2020 by NBASupes

[AHF]

35 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I think we're missing the point though...a sample size of 140+ shots at 40 percent is enough to say he can and will do it the rest of his career. An eFG of 63.2% for a season is pretty ridiculous. He's 22 and has been increasingly productive each year. Its crazy to me to think some GM next year isn't giving him the max if he just holds serve.

No it isn't.  That is the point.  At the same age, Love shot 211 times and hit 41.7%.  He has shot 37% for his career and never hit that high that number again.  Since then, Love didn't even hit 38% in 8 of 9 seasons.

3pt% is too mercurial to count on someone doing it the rest of their career after 140 shots.  I do think that he has shown real growth.  Does that normalize at 40%?  36%?  We don't know.

Being a high efg% guy is a lock, imo.  And you've got a larger sample size.

[NBASupes]

3 hours ago, marco102 said:

I'm falling in between Supes and Camp here. I dont think Collins is getting a max. However, I think he'll get more than Sabonis. 

I'm rooting that Supes is correct that Collins will get the Sabonis deal because that'll def help the Hawks in the long run.

I will agree with Camp if Collins averages 25 and 10 on 60% and 50% from three for a season, he's probably getting a max.  I don't think the three point shooting is sustainable though. 

If he's 25 and 10 on 60% and 50% from three on a winning team. He bet on himself correctly then but I have serious doubts he will do so. I can see his numbers seriously plateauing and impact increasing if we are a winning team. 

That doesn't mean he won't get paid handsomely but this idea of a max cat is more of wishful thinking thing than an actual realistic thing that smart teams or even wannabe smart teams will do.

[JTB]

3 hours ago, thecampster said:

He shot a ton of 3's last year. Shot 58% from the field and shot 141 threes last year making 40.1%. 50 and 38 would be a step back.

and the Hawks had 2 seasons last year. A 25 game stretch without John Collins where they went 4 and 21 and the other 42 games where they went 16 and 26.  .160 team without Collins, .381 team with Collins. Let that sink in. The man made that kind of a difference. The Hawks were bad last year with a whole cast of players getting minutes who didn't deserve it and others on the bench getting a paycheck. Your soft stats reflect who you play with. Your hard stats reflect what you're capable of. The man is gonna get paid.

My point is if he do take a step back and have those numbers that’s still good enough to warrant a close to max contract from his side of things especially if we are in the playoffs 

[JTB]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

If he's 25 and 10 on 60% and 50% from three on a winning team. He bet on himself correctly then but I have serious doubts he will do so. I can see his numbers seriously plateauing and impact increasing if we are a winning team. 

That doesn't mean he won't get paid handsomely but this idea of a max cat is more of wishful thinking thing than an actual realistic thing that smart teams or even wannabe smart teams will do.

Same here but that’s not a bad thing. I actually think he’d deserve the contract more if he has good numbers across the board that are not as outstanding look as that great span he had and were a winning team .

[marco102]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

If he's 25 and 10 on 60% and 50% from three on a winning team. He bet on himself correctly then but I have serious doubts he will do so. I can see his numbers seriously plateauing and impact increasing if we are a winning team. 

That doesn't mean he won't get paid handsomely but this idea of a max cat is more of wishful thinking thing than an actual realistic thing that smart teams or even wannabe smart teams will do.

That's what I was saying. He doesn't even have to do that on a winning team. If he puts up those numbers and the Hawks go from 20 wins to 40.  They will proabbly max him out, ESPECIALLY if his self creation and playmaking get better.

However, I don't think it's likely that will happen.  John isn't a max player right now, but I'm not going to down play how good he is for our team. 

He's worth more than Sabonis less than a max. 

[marco102]

2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Naw, he is free is basically what I got from it.

Danny will be making about $15,366,000 next year.  Taking on that type of money to help LA facilitate a trade seems like it'll involve some type of compensation.  

What role will he play on the team?   I'm trying to understand why the Hawks would want Green when they can find a much cheaper vet to sit on the bench for third string shooting guard. 

 

[NBASupes]

8 minutes ago, marco102 said:

Danny will be making about $15,366,000 next year.  Taking on that type of money to help LA facilitate a trade seems like it'll involve some type of compensation.  

What role will he play on the team?   I'm trying to understand why the Hawks would want Green when they can find a much cheaper vet to sit on the bench for third string shooting guard. 

 

Danny has been an analytic darling for the last 6 years. Considering what we are getting out of our wings, let's just say this would be considered a substantial improvement to our rotation

[terrell]

2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Danny has been an analytic darling for the last 6 years. Considering what we are getting out of our wings, let's just say this would be considered a substantial improvement to our rotation

Look who he has played with. lol

[marco102]

3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Danny has been an analytic darling for the last 6 years. Considering what we are getting out of our wings, let's just say this would be considered a substantial improvement to our rotation

Basketball just isn't anlaytics.  You've said this yourself.  Danny Green isn't worth $15.6 million to be a back up. 

Like you said earlier on the JC thing.  Whoever is making the decisions for the Hawks would turn that deal down. It doesn't make financial sense when there are other options out there. I'd much rather pay Grant that money than Danny Green. 

Grant plays better defense and scores just as well.