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59 minutes ago, thecampster said:

That difference is the difference between seeing him in Hawks red or having to play against him 3 times a year.

 

If someone wants to overpay him by 50 million, I will watch him in another uniform just like we did with Tim Hardaway Jr. Just to get rid of him, it cost NY Porzingis. 

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54 minutes ago, AHF said:

Where I stand right now is that I'd rather overpay JC by $5M per year than lose him.  If we get trade offers for him, you can consider those but this can't be a Horford / Sap situation with him.  

That's way too much. JC looks bright right now since we are loveable losers but what if JC proves he's not a winner and he just tried to trade him like Buddy Hield. His value will be much lower market wise because we overpaid him to stay. 

To me, Aaron Gordon, Myles Turner, and D. Sabonis is the markers. Once you go over this, you f*** up your future and look stupid as shit like Sacramento. 

4/65-4/75 is where I think Atlanta should focus on. It's not like JC play a style of Basketball teams around the NBA are dying to have. 

No man's land.

Buddy Hield land. To me, this was a bad contract and a clear overpay. Now Sacramento is trying to get out of this shitty ass deal before year 1. Why? Because he looked like he could be so much more but in reality he was always what he was. They should have paid him accordingly like Sabonis and Turner. Now if Indy wants to trade either, they can with no issues and get a max asset like the #1 pick in a bad draft. Even if SAC wanted to get the #1 pick, they couldn't because they ain't got shit to offer. They overpaid their 3rd best trade asset which is now their 5th or 6th best trade asset. Idiot organizations do stupid ass shit! 

Fire TS land is Siakam land aka a max deal. TS does this, he needs to be fired. Only foolish fans who don't understand impact and idiots think this is a good idea. Siakam got his because he helped with a title for Toronto and was the perfect Robin to Kawhi's Batman but now that he's no longer in that role. Many fans want him out and his contract is just awful. One of the most overpaid players in the NBA. By far! 

 

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4 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

What is our timeline to make a decision?

They want to work on an extension is all I was told but within reason of what brass is looking at. So it's not clear. It might go till the ext deadline. 

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35 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

That's way too much. JC looks bright right now since we are loveable losers but what if JC proves he's not a winner and he just tried to trade him like Buddy Hield. His value will be much lower market wise because we overpaid him to stay. 

To me, Aaron Gordon, Myles Turner, and D. Sabonis is the markers. Once you go over this, you f*** up your future and look stupid as shit like Sacramento. 

4/65-4/75 is where I think Atlanta should focus on. It's not like JC play a style of Basketball teams around the NBA are dying to have. 

No man's land.

Buddy Hield land. To me, this was a bad contract and a clear overpay. Now Sacramento is trying to get out of this shitty ass deal before year 1. Why? Because he looked like he could be so much more but in reality he was always what he was. They should have paid him accordingly like Sabonis and Turner. Now if Indy wants to trade either, they can with no issues and get a max asset like the #1 pick in a bad draft. Even if SAC wanted to get the #1 pick, they couldn't because they ain't got shit to offer. They overpaid their 3rd best trade asset which is now their 5th or 6th best trade asset. Idiot organizations do stupid ass shit! 

Fire TS land is Siakam land aka a max deal. TS does this, he needs to be fired. Only foolish fans who don't understand impact and idiots think this is a good idea. Siakam got his because he helped with a title for Toronto and was the perfect Robin to Kawhi's Batman but now that he's no longer in that role. Many fans want him out and his contract is just awful. One of the most overpaid players in the NBA. By far! 

 

We differ there because I think he is clearly better than Gordon, Turner, etc.

If we can get a Sabonis deal, that is preferred.

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2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

There is a massive difference between paying JC what he's worth and giving him the max. Like a 50 million dollars.

I'm still having a real problem with this post.  JC's max is a 4 year deal starting at $27.25 million per.  Basically a $110 -$115 million contract. So using your $50 million too much, are you saying JC is a $60 million, 4 year contract player? Are you saying he's worth $13.5 million after next season (when he'll be 23 going on 24), then 14.5, $16, 17 million.  Please tell me that is what you are saying. We all know I'm adverse to betting but please bet me on this...I'm begging you. JC only gets a 4 year $60 million contract after next year (barring injury, covid or suspension obviously). I have to believe you just really aren't understanding what we're saying. $20 million a year starting is the bare minimum he'll get. Help me understand how a top 20 stat player doesn't get paid in the top 80 in the league....I'm begging you.

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9 minutes ago, AHF said:

We differ there because I think he is clearly better than Gordon, Turner, etc.

If we can get a Sabonis deal, that is preferred.

I think he's better than Gordon but Turner and Sabonis is where his trade value is at as well as overall value for me at least.

Sabonis got 4/74 fully guaranteed. 

12 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Okay, so I guess we're doing this.  What do you think JC is worth per season?

Sabonis type deal at max

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16 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I think he's better than Gordon but Turner and Sabonis is where his trade value is at as well as overall value for me at least.

Sabonis got 4/74 fully guaranteed. 

Sabonis type deal at max

You wanted to bring in Al Horford's albatross contract as a backup, but you're arguing about John Collins possibly getting 4 years/$100 million?  What's the logic here? 

I would love for you to be right and  John settles for 4years/$74,000,000.  I just don't see it though unless the salary crap drops like 40%.

Realistically, I see John in the $80 - $100 million range. Hopefully, closer to $80 million.

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1 minute ago, marco102 said:

You wanted to bring in Al Horford's albatross contract as a backup, but you're arguing about John Collins possibly getting 4 years/$100 million?  What's the logic here? 

I would love for you to be right and  John settles for 4years/$74,000,000.  I just don't see it though unless the salary crap drops like 40%.

Realistically, I see John in the $80 - $100 million range. Hopefully, closer to $80 million.

Stop comparing winners to losers. JC ain't won shit in this league, never been to the all star game much less even received one coaches vote and his defense is garbage. Al been to the playoffs like every year of his career. He's literally the most winningest Atlanta Hawk of all time.

JC is your typical stat padding player you see on shit teams like ours. We been on this pony before, rule number one is to never overpay these types of players. If you like him, pay him a likeable salary. We need to see JC become a complete role player who can help you win games. Then if he wants to be a star, do those things but I am not like many here, I don't believe the things he is doing is impacting winning. Does he help? Yes but helping isn't worth no where as much as impacting winning to me.

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24 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I'm still having a real problem with this post.  JC's max is a 4 year deal starting at $27.25 million per.  Basically a $110 -$115 million contract. So using your $50 million too much, are you saying JC is a $60 million, 4 year contract player? Are you saying he's worth $13.5 million after next season (when he'll be 23 going on 24), then 14.5, $16, 17 million.  Please tell me that is what you are saying. We all know I'm adverse to betting but please bet me on this...I'm begging you. JC only gets a 4 year $60 million contract after next year (barring injury, covid or suspension obviously). I have to believe you just really aren't understanding what we're saying. $20 million a year starting is the bare minimum he'll get. Help me understand how a top 20 stat player doesn't get paid in the top 80 in the league....I'm begging you.

His 5 year RAPM is 118th in the NBA.

WAR is a 157th in the NBA

 

We been thought this before. Never trust production players stats on bad teams. Never. It's always fool's gold. 

Look at this what Chris Partlow of the Athletic said about JC:

Quote

If there’s one thing that statistical analysis has repeatedly demonstrated, it’s to be somewhat wary of players who put up big box score numbers on mediocre to bad teams. Before discussing Collins specifically, I want to briefly touch on why, because it also can be applied to certain other Hawks to a degree.

Collecting stats does not, in and of itself, provide a ton of value to a team. At today’s pace, an NBA team basically starts a game with around 80 points, 30 rebounds and 15 assists. The division of those “table stakes” stats is almost as much a matter of choice and strategy as player ability; although, of course, the best players do tend to get the first pass through the buffet line. But the implication of this is that we have to be careful to determine the degree to which a player’s output is simply his share of the door prize as compared to bringing additional value to the team’s performance. For what should be obvious reasons, this is a big concern when evaluating the better players on bad teams.

But those generalities aside, is Collins worth a “max” deal? Rather than focusing on his numbers, let’s start with the target. In most seasons, there are somewhere between 40 and 50 players who produce at a level commensurate with receiving 25 percent of the salary cap, in other words the starting salary for a rookie max. That’s the group in which Collins has to establish himself to justify such a contract purely in terms of production — it might be worth paying a player just short of that level for a number of other factors such as the market desirability and other variables, which might affect a team’s ability to replace or improve on the player’s production. But that aside, I don’t think Collins has shown enough to be worth a max deal purely on the merits.

Certainly, the scoring efficiency is impressive, and he’s established himself as a “go forward” guy, in league parlance. But I don’t think his overall play quite matches those box score accumulations. He’s 118th in 3-year RAPM — my favored measure of holistic on-court impact. There are considerable questions about his defensive effectiveness as a 5, as well as whether his offensive skillset will translate to playing next to a more traditional center like Clint Capela. The improvement in his long-range shooting is encouraging, but his attempts are still on the low side, and while 34.8 percent on above the break 3s is acceptable, that number doesn’t have to drop much for him to become a spacing issue as a power forward, while I don’t tend to think corner 3-point shooting is an especially useful skill for stretch 4s for a number of reasons.

To me, he seems more in line for the kind of deal Aaron Gordon received from Orlando (4 years, $80 million), worth around 70-80 percent of a max deal if he were to sign an extension now. If he repeats last season’s production while showing he can be effective on both ends next to a true center, the decision becomes much easier to offer the max next offseason, but I wouldn’t do it now if I were Atlanta.

A further complication of extension negotiations will be timing. Given the unknown economic impacts of the current situation, max contracts have a much wider range of possible outcomes than ever before. Since “max” contracts to players coming off rookie scale deals are tied to the salary cap in place when the deal begins, such a deal could be relatively more expensive than similar contracts have been in the past in the face of a flat or declining salary cap, whereas if league revenues expand rapidly (possibly due to the NBA’s recent digital rights deal with Microsoft, for example) a luckily timed deal could prove a long-term bargain. By comparison, contracts (and extensions) for a specific dollar amount are locked in on those terms.

I have a hard time seeing a number where Collins and the team could meet in the middle that would make sense, so I would expect them to amicably table extension discussions whenever the 2020 offseason does roll around and revisit talks with more information both about Collins’ fit with what the Hawks are building and as importantly with the league’s overall financial and cap situation.

 

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12 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Stop comparing winners to losers. JC ain't won shit in this league, never been to the all star game much less even received one coaches vote and his defense is garbage. Al been to the playoffs like every year of his career. He's literally the most winningest Atlanta Hawk of all time.

JC is your typical stat padding player you see on shit teams like ours. We been on this pony before, rule number one is to never overpay these types of players. If you like him, pay him a likeable salary. We need to see JC become a complete role player who can help you win games. Then if he wants to be a star, do those things but I am not like many here, I don't believe the things he is doing is impacting winning. Does he help? Yes but helping isn't worth no where as much as impacting winning to me.

Looking at our W/L record with and without JC, I'd say he impacts winning pretty significantly.  Here are the numbers for the last two seasons combined:

John Collins

Hawks Without John Collins:  10-36  21.7% winning %

Hawks With John Collins:  39-63  38.2% winning %

Net:  +16.5% increase in winning % when he plays

 

The last two seasons for:

Al Horford:

12-8 without Al - 60% winning %

80-56 with Al - 58.8% winning %

Net:  -1.2% winning % when Al plays

 

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15 minutes ago, AHF said:

Looking at our W/L record with and without JC, I'd say he impacts winning pretty significantly.  Here are the numbers for the last two seasons combined:

John Collins

Hawks Without John Collins:  10-36  21.7% winning %

Hawks With John Collins:  39-63  38.2% winning %

16.5% increase in winning % when he plays

 

The last two seasons for:

Al Horford:

12-8 without Al - 60% winning %

80-56 with Al - 58.8% winning %

Net:  -1.2% winning % when Al plays

 

We are talking his entire career with Al. Not just last two years and yes, his contract is an albatross as of right now and it's not holding up its value. 

As for JC win percentage, its sunny side up and sunny side down.

The sunny side up is we are better with him than without him. The sunny side down is look at our PF position of the last two years and our center depth last year. Rubbish. Giving him this type of credit is rubbish when he's the most effected player with or without Trae Young on the roster by a mile.

 

 

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29 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

We been thought this before. Never trust production players stats on bad teams. Never. It's always fool's gold. 

 

 

So wait...you trust Trae's production but not John's even though they are on the same team?:questions:  I am so confused!

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9 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

So you trust Trae's production but not John's even though they are on the same team?:questions:

You see how much crap I get on here for going at Trae's inconsistent impact on winning games. That he doesn't run the offense. That he doesn't like to move on offense without the ball. That he can ruin the flow of an offense when he decides he wants to go YOLO. Trae has a number of issues which is why he gets dogged by the national media. Not putting him the the top 10 young players. No votes when compared to Morant/Doncic/Zion. He is facing the fire too but his fire is louder and more vocal.

No one really gives a shit about JC outside of us but when you are start talking about getting paid, I will get vocal because I know what it means to overpay a player in this salary capped league. It can be the difference between making a blockbuster deal or trading a key young player or other key assets to get rid of this guy's contract. 

 

Trae is a legit star, they aren't comparable. His numbers aren't fake, they would be better if he was on a better team. He gets double teamed, schemed, teams gameplan around him or get their ass whooped. He's earned his key but he hasn't earned the love Luka, Zion, and Ja are getting and he's gotta win to get that respect. 

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5 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

You see how much crap I get on here for going at Trae's inconsistent impact on winning games. That he doesn't run the offense. That he doesn't like to move on offense without the ball. That he can ruin the flow of an offense when he decides he wants to go YOLO. Trae has a number of issues which is why he gets dogged by the national media. Not putting him the the top 10 young players. No votes when compared to Morant/Doncic/Zion. He is facing the fire too but his fire is louder and more vocal. No one really gives a shit about JC outside of us but when you are start talking about getting paid, I will get vocal because I know what it means to overpay a player in this salary capped league. It can be the difference between making a blockbuster deal and trading a key young player to get rid of this guy's contract. 

 

Trae is a legit star, they aren't comparable. His numbers aren't fake, they would be better if he was on a better team. He gets double teamed, schemed, teams gameplan around him or get their ass whooped. He's earned his key but he hasn't earned the love Luka, Zion, and Ja are getting and he's gotta win to get that respect. 

I'm with you when it comes to Trae not performing like Luka.  I get criticized too for pointing out the flaws in his game that he and the coaching staff continue to not address but when Trae doesn't play, don't you think that the other team's focus is to stop John?  They have won some games without Trae in the line up and John has had some pretty good stats in those games.

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2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

If someone wants to overpay him by 50 million, I will watch him in another uniform just like we did with Tim Hardaway Jr. Just to get rid of him, it cost NY Porzingis. 

:blanky: That's not true though. you have it barse ackward.

NYK wasn't trying to dump THJr, so they said 'we'll trade you Porzingas if you take THJr.  YOu think Dallas gave up all those picks for THJr? C'mon Man. 

The impetus for the trade was Porzingi's unhappiness in NYK.  THJr was a byproduct of that, it was the prudent thing for NYK to do to cut salary since they were starting over their rebuild.

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1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

I'm with you when it comes to Trae not performing like Luka.  I get criticized too for pointing out the flaws in his game that he and the coaching staff continue to not address but when Trae doesn't play, don't you think that the other team's focus is to stop John?  They have won some games without Trae in the line up and John has had some pretty good stats in those games.

I've never seen a team gameplan to stop JC EVER. Even the games Trae don't play, they don't scheme to stop him. The one team I've seen ever take him seriously without Trae was Orlando and they locked his ass down but Brandon Goodwin and the bench was on one that night and we won. Even in his best game without Trae against Chicago, they was letting JC do whatever he wanted. They won by like 40 anyway so they didn't care. 

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2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

:blanky: That's not true though. you have it barse ackward.

NYK wasn't trying to dump THJr, so they said 'we'll trade you Porzingas if you take THJr.  YOu think Dallas gave up all those picks for THJr? C'mon Man. 

The impetus for the trade was Porzingi's unhappiness in NYK.  THJr was a byproduct of that, it was the prudent thing for NYK to do to cut salary since they were starting over their rebuild.

WHAT!!!! LOL! You must have forgot New York dream of Durant and Kyrie goals that was only possible if they got rid of a terrible big contract aka THJ. That was the entire reason of the trade. To free up cap for their Zion-Durant-Kyrie dream. 

 

The KP shit was just an excuse. They felt they knew they was landing all three somehow...

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10 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

WHAT!!!! LOL! You must have forgot New York dream of Durant and Kyrie goals that was only possible if they got rid of a terrible big contract aka THJ. That was the entire reason of the trade. To free up cap for their Zion-Durant-Kyrie dream. 

 

The KP shit was just an excuse. They felt they knew they was landing all three somehow...

source.gif

you know he requested a trade, right?   If you really think the Knicks were trying to dump THJr so they threw in Zingas

tenor.gif

you are correct in them chasing the FAs that year, not rebuilding.

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