Ask Supes

[kg01]

3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

We are talking his entire career with Al. Not just last two years and yes, his contract is an albatross as of right now and it's not holding up its value. 

As for JC win percentage, its sunny side up and sunny side down.

The sunny side up is we are better with him than without him. The sunny side down is look at our PF position of the last two years and our center depth last year. Rubbish. Giving him this type of credit is rubbish when he's the most effected player with or without Trae Young on the roster by a mile.

 

 

"Luck-adjusted" = made up based on whatever criteria they decided to include in their "analysis".

[NBASupes]

47 minutes ago, kg01 said:

"Luck-adjusted" = made up based on whatever criteria they decided to include in their "analysis".

Yeah sure...

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, marco102 said:

What are you attempting to say here? 

@JayBirdHawk is arguing, that without Porzingis there isn't a Dallas trade. 

Dalllas was not trading to get THjr. 

They were trading to get Porzingas to pair with Luka and they took on THjr to help New York clear salary because they thought they would get Kyrie and Durant. 

This has been well publicized. I'm pretty sure the only way the deal got done was for Dallas to take THjr, so Dallas did the trade. 

However, the trade wouldn't have even started without Porzingis wanting out which is what JayBird was saying.  Ain't nobody just trading for THjr and that contract. 

An aside: You may be trying to say this was New York's talking point on their side of things.

I clearly knew what Dallas was trading for. I am saying that NY did the deal because they thought they would get Durant and Kyrie. That's all I ever stated.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, RedDawg#8 said:

As he should have. He wouldn't be worth that money without the talent of the other guys around him. He most definitely needed to be a team first guy if you ask me. But 12 over 5 aint but 2.4 a year he left. 

Draymond Green deserved every penny on that deal and some. One of the best floor raisers during his 2nd contract in NBA history. He was used as GS real PG and got the most touches. His 2016 regular season is insane and his ability to raise his level in the playoffs is 2nd to none while Klay value drops.

[JayBirdHawk]

35 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I clearly knew what Dallas was trading for. I am saying that NY did the deal because they thought they would get Durant and Kyrie. That's all I ever stated.

[RedDawg#8]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

Draymond Green deserved every penny on that deal and some. One of the best floor raisers during his 2nd contract in NBA history. He was used as GS real PG and got the most touches. His 2016 regular season is insane and his ability to raise his level in the playoffs is 2nd to none while Klay value drops.

All that sounds good, and I know it's mathematically sound and what not. Not disputing that.

But tell me how those Warriors did this year when he was their  best player most nights?

Could he lift those no names and G-leaguers? He also had DRussell too most games before the Wiggins trade. I know they intentionally "threw" the season. But if he was really that kind of impact guy then why tank? Because without that elite talent around him, his impact on winning becomes minimized.

Do you think if we did an even swap of Draymond for JC, he would have elevated us to a winning record this past season? Do you think the Warriors would have been any worse with JC opposed to Draymond in 19-20?

A lot of factors go in to winning impact besides just an individuals ability. In these examples, surrounding talent as well as culture play huge roles.

Draymond is an elite winning impact guy until his franchise decided they didnt want to win. That's no different than the roster/rebuild we have been going through since JC came in to the league. He hasn't been on a team that was actually trying to win, unfortunately. 

 

 

[AHF]

JC playing exceptionally well with Trae is a feature, not a bug.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

That was the first post with limited detail. The 2nd post was more detailed. 

[NBASupes]

51 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

All that sounds good, and I know it's mathematically sound and what not. Not disputing that.

But tell me how those Warriors did this year when he was their  best player most nights?

Could he lift those no names and G-leaguers? He also had DRussell too most games before the Wiggins trade. I know they intentionally "threw" the season. But if he was really that kind of impact guy then why tank? Because without that elite talent around him, his impact on winning becomes minimized.

Do you think if we did an even swap of Draymond for JC, he would have elevated us to a winning record this past season? Do you think the Warriors would have been any worse with JC opposed to Draymond in 19-20?

A lot of factors go in to winning impact besides just an individuals ability. In these examples, surrounding talent as well as culture play huge roles.

Draymond is an elite winning impact guy until his franchise decided they didnt want to win. That's no different than the roster/rebuild we have been going through since JC came in to the league. He hasn't been on a team that was actually trying to win, unfortunately. 

 

 

His 3rd contract which he is currently on has not been as impressive. But the contract he got in his 2nd contract was well earned

[RedDawg#8]

12 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

His 3rd contract which he is currently on has not been as impressive. But the contract he got in his 2nd contract was well earned

As typically is the case if you ask me.

Most guys worth their salt still have something to prove on their 2nd contract. It's usually once they get that vet deal, 3rd contract they get fat and bounce back to reality. It's rare a guy ever lives up to that huge 3rd deal. 

This is why I believe JC wont disappoint. He is still in prove it mode. I think whatever he gets, he will be worth it. Now in 2025 and beyond, who knows. But his star is still rising as of today.

[thecampster]

9 hours ago, AHF said:

JC playing exceptionally well with Trae is a feature, not a bug.

Where is my use all your likes on one post button.?

[kg01]

11 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Yeah sure...

So we quantify "luck" now?  I get what it's trying to do but that doesn't change the fact that it's made up (and therefore can be shifted on the whim of the author).

[NBASupes]

29 minutes ago, kg01 said:

So we quantify "luck" now?  I get what it's trying to do but that doesn't change the fact that it's made up (and therefore can be shifted on the whim of the author).

That's not what the stat means at all. Its explained on the author site. 

[kg01]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

That's not what the stat means at all. Its explained on the author site. 

That's fine but my overall point stands.  We've gone too far with the "analytics" stuff.

No need for us to argue over that though.  I'm tired of fighting.  Can we end this offseason ... please? 

[NBASupes]

14 hours ago, RedDawg#8 said:

As he should have. He wouldn't be worth that money without the talent of the other guys around him. He most definitely needed to be a team first guy if you ask me. But 12 over 5 aint but 2.4 a year he left. 

Help them land a near max contract which they used to land KD

[thecampster]

First let me go on record and say, "I hate it when people make me research things I already know." Second, these are never my own unique thoughts but things I've read from countless sources. I would go out on a limb and say very few if none on this board read more than me daily from serious sites.

From Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/patbenson/2020/03/01/john-collins-has-earned-an-extension-with-the-atlanta-hawks-but-for-how-much/#6f73816a5671

 

"

However, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic wrote in October that five NBA agents estimated that Collins was worth a four-year extension of $80 million to $110 million. That would be more in line for a player like Damontis Sabonis (four years, $74.9 million plus $10.4 million in incentives) or Jaylen Brown (four years, $103 million plus $12 million in incentives).

So how much money should the Hawks invest in Collins this offseason? The answer is still unclear. A lot of it depends on how they do in free agency this summer and their expectations for free agency next summer.

The last thing the organization wants is a cloud hanging over Collins for the entirety of the 2020-2021 season. It’s clear that John Collins has earned an extension. Now it is time to figure out at what price."

 

From the AJC: 

"This is a difficult position for the Hawks to be in. Collins will most likely demand a max extension and you can make the argument that he’s played his way into one. However, after acquiring Clint Capela and likely having to give Trae Young a max extension in the next two seasons, I’m not sure if it would be the best bet for Atlanta to give up that type of contract this offseason.

At the very least, if Collins doesn’t pivot off a max stance, perhaps it would be wise to let him play out this season and just match any contract offer he gets in restricted free agency. Or, if they still don’t want to pay him the big money that he’s likely to demand on the free-agent market, perhaps they could work out a sign-and-trade with him.

It’s not a foregone conclusion that John Collins will be in Atlanta long-term, but there’s no question he’s quickly transforming into a really good player for the Hawks. Atlanta just needs to determine whether or not he’s become invaluable to the Hawks."

 

According to Kevin O’Conner of The Ringer,

"Collins may get dealt because the team does not want to pay him north of $20 million annually in free agency:"

 

It's easy to research but kid is getting paid. $27 mil is the max, and it seems a foregone conclusion he's going to make $20 million +. The question is does he take a hometown discount to stay here. If I had to bet, I'd say $22 million a year to stay in Atlanta....Max or damn near to get signed away.

Edited October 9, 2020 by thecampster

[NBASupes]

14 minutes ago, thecampster said:

First let me go on record and say, "I hate it when people make me research things I already know." Second, these are never my own unique thoughts but things I've read from countless sources. I would go out on a limb and say very few if none on this board read more than me daily from serious sites.

From Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/patbenson/2020/03/01/john-collins-has-earned-an-extension-with-the-atlanta-hawks-but-for-how-much/#6f73816a5671

 

"

However, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic wrote in October that five NBA agents estimated that Collins was worth a four-year extension of $80 million to $110 million. That would be more in line for a player like Damontis Sabonis (four years, $74.9 million plus $10.4 million in incentives) or Jaylen Brown (four years, $103 million plus $12 million in incentives).

So how much money should the Hawks invest in Collins this offseason? The answer is still unclear. A lot of it depends on how they do in free agency this summer and their expectations for free agency next summer.

The last thing the organization wants is a cloud hanging over Collins for the entirety of the 2020-2021 season. It’s clear that John Collins has earned an extension. Now it is time to figure out at what price."

 

From the AJC: 

"This is a difficult position for the Hawks to be in. Collins will most likely demand a max extension and you can make the argument that he’s played his way into one. However, after acquiring Clint Capela and likely having to give Trae Young a max extension in the next two seasons, I’m not sure if it would be the best bet for Atlanta to give up that type of contract this offseason.

At the very least, if Collins doesn’t pivot off a max stance, perhaps it would be wise to let him play out this season and just match any contract offer he gets in restricted free agency. Or, if they still don’t want to pay him the big money that he’s likely to demand on the free-agent market, perhaps they could work out a sign-and-trade with him.

It’s not a foregone conclusion that John Collins will be in Atlanta long-term, but there’s no question he’s quickly transforming into a really good player for the Hawks. Atlanta just needs to determine whether or not he’s become invaluable to the Hawks."

 

According to Kevin O’Conner of The Ringer,

"Collins may get dealt because the team does not want to pay him north of $20 million annually in free agency:"

 

It's easy to research but kid is getting paid. $27 mil is the max, and it seems a foregone conclusion he's going to make $20 million +. The question is does he take a hometown discount to stay here. If I had to bet, I'd say $22 million a year to stay in Atlanta....Max or damn near to get signed away.

O'Connor is telling ya'll the truth as am I but I gotta be quiet on this one. I am done with this topic. Let's move on with the thread. 

[bleachkit]

51 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

O'Connor is telling ya'll the truth as am I but I gotta be quiet on this one. I am done with this topic. Let's move on with the thread. 

JC would be foolish not to ask for the max. Hawks want to keep their financial flexibility going forward. Hopefully 4 years 90 million gets it done.

[JayBirdHawk]

3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Help them land a near max contract which they used to land KD

No,  it was the cap spiking from 2015 to 2016 by ~$24million, jumped from $70 million to $94 million.  Almost all team had lots of capspacs that year.

Typical previous cap increases were in the range of $6-9 million. $99, $103, $109 million was the cap increase in each of 2017, 2018, 2019.

 

[thecampster]

31 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

No,  it was the cap spiking from 2015 to 2016 by ~$24million, jumped from $70 million to $94 million.  Almost all team had lots of capspacs that year.

Typical previous cap increases were in the range of $6-9 million. $99, $103, $109 million was the cap increase in each of 2017, 2018, 2019.

 

A lot of people forget that part.