The Crystal Ball "What If" thread.

[KB21]

As long as the Hawks keep valuing top 5 picks over wins, they will continue to collect top 5 picks instead of wins.  

[macdaddy]

38 minutes ago, KB21 said:

As long as the Hawks keep valuing top 5 picks over wins, they will continue to collect top 5 picks instead of wins.  

We've only collected one so far....

[KB21]

8 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

We've only collected one so far....

Two out of two years.  Soon to be three out of three years.  While they traded up to get him, Hunter was a top 5 pick.  

[macdaddy]

Not be beat a dead horse but most championship teams have a quite a few high draft picks on their roster.  To contend you have to get that elite talent one way or another and unfortunately the Hawks don't have a great track record of acquiring it any other way. 

[AHF]

49 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Two out of two years.  Soon to be three out of three years.  While they traded up to get him, Hunter was a top 5 pick.  

Is this your prediction that we are going to be one of the worst 5 teams next year if we don’t make a major trade to upgrade the roster this season?

[macdaddy]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

Is this your prediction that we are going to be one of the worst 5 teams next year if we don’t make a major mistake move this season?

I think he's saying this season.   Trae, Hunter, 2020 pick would be 3 years in a row top-5

[Buzzard]

1 minute ago, macdaddy said:

Not be beat a dead horse but most championship teams have a quite a few high draft picks on their roster.  To contend you have to get that elite talent one way or another and unfortunately the Hawks don't have a great track record of acquiring it any other way. 

I agree. Next year its time to right the ship and grab some depth. Sooner or later you have to play the cards you have and see if they have what it takes. That season will be upon us as soon as this one ends.

We have good players, picks, and cap. Time to start doing more than drowning in losses. We need to at least be treading water as 8th seed next season.

[turnermx]

1 minute ago, macdaddy said:

I think he's saying this season.   Trae, Hunter, 2020 pick would be 3 years in a row top-5

The 2019 draft was the first top 5 pick that came as a result of rebuilding, the 2018 draft was a top 5 pick that came as a result of tearing down the absolute mess that was left behind by the Bud as GM debacle

[AHF]

11 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I think he's saying this season.   Trae, Hunter, 2020 pick would be 3 years in a row top-5

Then who cares?  We traded up for #8 to #4 last year so I guess that somehow counts?  (Like Detroit drafted #2 overall after winning a championship so maybe that hurt them?)  The point is how we will do next year not this year.  If we hit the inflection point like Philly did when they made a 25 game improvement by adding vets to core development then why should it matter for purposes of our long-term prospects if we win 15, 25, or 35 games this season?  

I guess I'm not following the point.  I thought the point was that losing begets losing and we would trap ourselves in the cycle of losing if we didn't make moves now to upgrade the roster so our youngsters could get a taste winning this season.  I think the vets we add to next year's roster will be much more important than adding vets who will be going elsewhere next season just to give the youngsters a taste of winning.

[REHawksFan]

15 minutes ago, turnermx said:

The 2019 draft was the first top 5 pick that came as a result of rebuilding, the 2018 draft was a top 5 pick that came as a result of tearing down the absolute mess that was left behind by the Bud as GM debacle

I don't get why the distinction matters. Who cares whether Trae came as a result of the tear down or the 1st rebuilding year? It's all semantics at this point. The only real tangibly important fact is they now have 3 lottery picks with at least one more on the way that will hopefully be the foundational pieces of a title team in the years to come. 

 

[KB21]

30 minutes ago, AHF said:

Is this your prediction that we are going to be one of the worst 5 teams next year if we don’t make a major trade to upgrade the roster this season?

Yes

[Buzzard]

7 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Yes

Barring injury and another Collins suspension, not happening KB21. I think we would be better than that right now if all those things had not happened.

[turnermx]

2 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

Barring injury and another Collins suspension, not happening KB21. I think we would be better than that right now if all those things had not happened.

Perhaps the good Dr would be spending time elsewhere in that case.

[Gray Mule]

WHAT IF?  OK.  What if the Hawks trade Parsons and a pick for Adams?  His contract is for the remainder of this season + all the next season.  If he doesn't work out, what did we lose?  One first round pick, that's what.  Do you believe that Adams for 1.5 seasons is worth gambling one 1st round pick?

If Adams proves to be great, he can and will demand a big $$$ payroll, either from us or the NBA.  If he's that great do we keep him or let him walk?  What if he's just not that great?

Does trading for him now and giving up one 1st round pick this summer cripple the Hawks, preventing them from drafting that elite, super future NBA star?  That sounds so bad.  So, the question is, do we gamble now or later?  Is a bird in the hand (Adams) worth more than a bird in the bush (Draft pick) that we know nothing about?

We all know.  Hawks need a center.  Adams is a center.  He's apparently available.  Should we?

 

[AHF]

14 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Yes

@KB21

Here is my bet proposal. 

Stake:  One month avatar bet.

Condition:  If the Hawks make a significant trade that you acknowledge is a major move, then the bet is off.  This applies only if they do not make a trade that you deem major.  You can make that call unilaterally once the trade deadline passes.

Bet Terms:  If the condition above doesn't void the bet, you win if the Hawks finish with one of the 5 worst records in the league in the 2020-21 season.  I win if they finish better than that.

[Gray Mule]

Hawks will be better next season unless something really bad happens.  Why?  Because of the three great $$$payroll contracts that we obtained, along with future consideration, will be no longer Hawks.

Because Collins will be with us all season and all our youth will have more experience.  Because, barring a trade or two, Atlanta expects to have a pretty good draft pick to add to the roster and we will have the room and the $$$ to add some veteran players next season.

Too any things have gone wrong this season.  Injuries. Suspension.  Lack of experience.  It all adds up.

[KB21]

13 minutes ago, AHF said:

@KB21

Here is my bet proposal. 

Stake:  One month avatar bet.

Condition:  If the Hawks make a significant trade that you acknowledge is a major move, then the bet is off.  This applies only if they do not make a trade that you deem major.  You can make that call unilaterally once the trade deadline passes.

Bet Terms:  If the condition above doesn't void the bet, you win if the Hawks finish with one of the 5 worst records in the league in the 2020-21 season.  I win if they finish better than that.

OK.  I’ll take that bet.  

[High5]

We may not even finish bottom 5 this season if we have a run of good health. We would almost certainly pass the Knicks and Cavs in that case. Then you have the Wolves in a total free fall and the Wizards can't defend anyone. Detroit and Charlotte could fall apart at any moment as well.

[turnermx]

 

Gray I agree with you..

 

"Too any things have gone wrong this season.  Injuries. Suspension.  Lack of experience.  It all adds up. "

 

To this I would add 'unmet expectations' especially for Len. 2nd half of last year he was a knockdown shooter and I suspect TS expected that trend to continue and for depth he traded Spellman for Jones.  I have to think Jones has regressed or become the worst case TS envisioned.  I think Schlenk did expect to win at about the same level or just slightly above last year.  But everything that could have gone wrong pretty much has : Injuries, suspension, rawness of youth, unrealized expectations, and underperforming veterans Turner and Crabbe. Coach Pierce has been dealt a poor hand I don't see how he can be blamed when he walks near a trip wire with this injury depleted and inexperienced rotation combined with a lack of veteran help.

[AHF]

25 minutes ago, AHF said:

@KB21

Here is my bet proposal. 

Stake:  One month avatar bet.

Condition:  If the Hawks make a significant trade that you acknowledge is a major move, then the bet is off.  This applies only if they do not make a trade that you deem major.  You can make that call unilaterally once the trade deadline passes.

Bet Terms:  If the condition above doesn't void the bet, you win if the Hawks finish with one of the 5 worst records in the league in the 2020-21 season.  I win if they finish better than that.

 

11 minutes ago, KB21 said:

OK.  I’ll take that bet.