Welcome to Atlanta (again), Mr. Dedmon

[bleachkit]

22 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

OK. And yet, out of the 10 active players with the best odds at making the Hall of Fame as of right now according to Basketball-reference, 9 of them were picked top 5, with the only exception being Curry who was picked 7th.

Complete list:

1. Lebron (1st pick)
2. Chris Paul (4th Pick)
3. Kevin Durant (2nd Pick)
4. Westbrook (4th)
5. Harden (3rd)
6. Curry (7th)
7. Howard (1st)
8. Carmelo (3rd)
9. Vince Carter (5th)
10. Pau Gasol (3rd)

Seems like a pretty good spot to pick a hall of fame player. But I guess all of that is in the past now.

Sorry double post

Edited February 6, 2020 by bleachkit

[Atlantaholic]

3 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Kawhi Leonard had to be on that list.

He is not on the top 10 according to basketball-reference. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html

Edited February 6, 2020 by Atlantaholic

[bleachkit]

1 minute ago, Atlantaholic said:

He is not on the top 10 according to basketball-reference. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html

Well they clearly goofed. Kawhi is an absolute lock has to be on that list. Best two way player of his era and carried two seperate teams to a title (possibly soon to be three). Case closed.

[Atlantaholic]

Out of the last five NBA drafts, there have been 14 players that have been selected to All Star games. Out of those 14, 9 have been top five picks. That's 65% of All Stars picked with the top 0.08% of the picks (5/60)

1. Trae (5th)
2. Luka (3rd)
3. Tatum (3rd)
4. Mitchell (13)
5. Adebayo(14)
6. Simmons (1st)
7. Ingram (2nd)
8. Sabonis (11)
9. Siakam (27)
10. KAT  (1st)
11. Russel (2nd)
12. Kristaps (3rd)
13. Embiid (3rd)
14. Jokic (41st)

So, the "top 5 picks aren't worth what they used to be" is a categorically false statement. Listing a few busts doesn't prove anything. 

 

[Atlantaholic]

1 minute ago, bleachkit said:

Well they clearly goofed. Kawhi is an absolute lock has to be on that list. Best two way player of his era and carried two seperate teams to a title (possibly soon to be three). Case closed.

Agreed, though It's somewhat irrelevent what their criteria is, and it's not what we are discussing.  Take the top 20 active players with highest Hall of Fame probability on that list, which covers absolutely any active player with a prayer at a HOF and you are still at around 75% of them being top 5 picks. 

[bleachkit]

2 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

Agreed, though It's somewhat irrelevent what their criteria is, and it's not what we are discussing.  Take the top 20 active players with highest Hall of Fame probability on that list, which covers absolutely any active player with a prayer at a HOF and you are still at around 75% of them being top 5 picks. 

It seems like most of the great players that were found late 1st or 2nd round have been international guys teams took a flyer on.

[Atlantaholic]

Just now, bleachkit said:

It seems like most of the great players that were found late 1st or 2nd round have been international guys teams took a flyer on.

Yup, seems like a smarter move to gamble on an international player late in the draft (non-lottery) than go for an college player who has pretty much almost no shot at ever becoming an All Star. 

[bleachkit]

1 minute ago, Atlantaholic said:

Yup, seems like a smarter move to gamble on an international player late in the draft (non-lottery) than go for an college player who has pretty much almost no shot at ever becoming an All Star. 

Absolutely, nothing is worse than drafting some overrated ball hogging college combo guard.

[Atlantaholic]

Oh, and looking at drafts back in the 1980s, it seems it was actually substantially EASIER to find all star players in the later first round than today. Didn't crunch the numbers but looking at drafts from 1989-1981 and eyeballing it I would say that around 70% of All Stars were picked outside of the top five during that decade.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_NBA_draft

If anyone wants to look up the exact number.

EDIT: heh... did a quick count and turns out the eyeball was spot on. Out of 66(!) All Stars picked in the 80s, 46 of them were picked outside of the top 5... which equals 70% almost exactly. Still 30% of all stars picked with the top 0.08% of picks is still massive value in the 80s. But turns out the last five years those top five picks are almost ridiculously more valueable. Small sample size perhaps? Or maybe it's that today teams have better scouting and players that are studs rarely fly under the radar. 

Edited February 6, 2020 by Atlantaholic

[turnermx]

5 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Absolutely, nothing is worse than drafting some overrated ball hogging college combo guard.

How about trading a second round pick like the Hawks did way back to get a first rounder with a guaranteed contract? most likely could have used the 2nd rounder on him. Dan Dickau.  I think it was the same draft they passed up TP along with many other teams.

[sturt]

 

[Thomas]

16 hours ago, sturt said:

 

Pretty sure that just broke my brain. Does help with the confirmation I have about Schlenk though, even back to when he was hired. Thought he was the right choice. Saying bye bye to D8 sold me early. Drafting well and then cleaning up those other misjudgments the past few days and now moving on feels good.

[AHF]

The other thing when you look at those numbers it that it is 0% for guys drafted after pick 15.  Pick 15 is the team that barely made the playoffs.  Being even the 2nd worst team in the playoffs means your pick wasn't eligible to draft any of those guys.  

That is ok if you are Miami or LA and can recruit stars but for other rosters you either need to trade for those guys (better have some lottery picks) or you need to draft them yourself.

[Spud2nique]

3 hours ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

Ded will come off the bench and contribute about a well as Len has. Come in, play defense, get a few boards, hit a few shots, and help keep us in the game while the starters rest... which is all Len gave us

Ya Ded will come off the bench and actually do all the things you listed, Len didn’t do that for us though that’s my point.  He barely did a satisfactory job. 
 

Never assumed my any means that Ded would start over Capela so please don’t phrase your response as if I did. 
 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

 

 

 

[terrell]

11 hours ago, KB21 said:

The dynamic of what you get at the top of the draft has changed over time.  Long gone are the days where you would get Hakeem Olajuwon or Michael Jordan at the top of the draft and have NBA ready players.  Instead, now you are taking an underdeveloped talent who has no clue how to play the game. It’s rare to get a Doncic or a Davis at the top of the draft in these days.  You are more likely to get a Wiggins, Parker, Russell, Ingram, or Okafor.  

Or Young...

[KB21]

2 minutes ago, terrell said:

Or Young...

Yeah.  There is a small chance that you end up with a positive contributor such as Young, but then you waste his cheap years by surrounding him with losing talent.  

[sillent]

On 2/5/2020 at 10:41 PM, Thomas said:

When everyone is healthy think I know where Bruno will get his minutes now. He will do very well at backup PF moving forward. Wonder when Clint actually does come back and that stuff happens.

Been saying he's a power foward since we drafted him.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

14 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Ya Ded will come off the bench and actually do all the things you listed, Len didn’t do that for us though that’s my point.  He barely did a satisfactory job. 
 

Never assumed my any means that Ded would start over Capela so please don’t phrase your response as if I did. 
 

I believe everyone on the board knows that Ded is the backup to Capela. I never assumed that you thought Ded would be starting... I only stated that Ded will be starting during Capela's absence and will be a better starter than Len would have been... but once Ded is back on the bench and getting 20 minutes per game, he'll be no more productive or efficient as Len was. And you can say whatever you want on Len, but the guy did have quite a few dub-dub performances, was good in the PnR, and shot the 3-ball well. Ded's and Len's stats for this year look almost identical. Ded's biggest impact will be in the locker room (filling Vince's shoes) and I agree with a few others that he'll likely be trade fodder next season... especially if the Hawks are serious about developing Bruno.