Collins has to PROVE more! Sorry but the clock starts now...

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

Baby steps. 

Yes, he still needs improvement, WIP!

 

[HawkItus]

Classic Thread nomination...

 

[AHF]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Baby steps. 

Yes, he still needs improvement, WIP!

 

Bigger than a baby step!

[JTB]

On 3/4/2020 at 1:15 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Baby steps. 

Yes, he still needs improvement, WIP!

 

Impressive! I know JC can be a better defender! I can’t wait to see him with capela on the floor.

[NBASupes]

I will be honest with you guys. I am disappointed in John overall. His impact just isn't there. His efficiency is exceptional but he's not that guy. Our offensive rating with him last year was 8th in the NBA. This year, we are barely better with him at 24th in the league. 

His raw stats look great but metrics are disappointing, I haven't been impressed with the eye test and I really think teams adjusted extremely well to him this year. This isn't John fault, he adjust to a degree but his impact isn't there this year regardless if his raw numbers are there.

I've moved on honestly. He got one more year of starting but he needs to be much better and I don't know if that's possible. 

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

I will be honest with you guys. I am disappointed in John overall. His impact just isn't there. His efficiency is exceptional but he's not that guy. Our offensive rating with him last year was 8th in the NBA. This year, we are barely better with him at 24th in the league. 

His raw stats look great but metrics are disappointing, I haven't been impressed with the eye test and I really think teams adjusted extremely well to him this year. This isn't John fault, he adjust to a degree but his impact isn't there this year regardless if his raw numbers are there.

I've moved on honestly. He got one more year of starting but he needs to be much better and I don't know if that's possible. 

Are you including the 25 games he missed in our overall team efficiency numbers when Cam couldn't hit the broad side of a barn the first 2 months of the season while starting? Len lost his 3 point touch and got benched for Damian Jones, an inconsistent rookie in Hunter and nothing from the bench?

Tell me that's not what you did?

 

[NBASupes]

49 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Are you including the 25 games he missed in our overall team efficiency numbers when Cam couldn't hit the broad side of a barn the first 2 months of the season while starting? Len lost his 3 point touch and got benched for Damian Jones, an inconsistent rookie in Hunter and nothing from the bench?

Tell me that's not what you did?

 

You don't understand what I am saying. Without John, our offensive rating was dead last, 30th! With John 8th. John was significant in terms of impact for us. 

 

This year, our offensive rating is bad with him and without him. His impact hasn't been much different on offense than Jabari Parker for us. Last year, he was a star impact wise. His PPP has exceptionally high. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by NBASupes

[AHF]

12 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

You don't understand what I am saying. Without John, our offensive rating was dead last, 30th! With John 8th. John was significant in terms of impact for us. 

 

This year, our offensive rating is bad with him and without him. His impact hasn't been much different on offense than Jabari Parker for us. Last year, he was a star impact wise. His PPP has exceptionally high. 

This year our overall offensive rating has been horrific.  I'd rather measure his impact when we are a bit closer to the baseline.  Think about it this way.  Trae has had arguably the highest offensive impact of any player in the entire league for most of this year (or had before his slump last week).  Trae's numbers showed us still as no better than average with him on the floor and historically bad when he was off the floor.  I think expecting JC to match Trae's impact is unrealistic.  He is good but not in the conversation for best offensive player in the league.  Can't expect that kind of impact from him.  But on a roster where the team's baseline / overall play is in the pack (as opposed to way below it) a positive differential has more impact.

[NBASupes]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

This year our overall offensive rating has been horrific.  I'd rather measure his impact when we are a bit closer to the baseline.  Think about it this way.  Trae has had arguably the highest offensive impact of any player in the entire league for most of this year (or had before his slump last week).  Trae's numbers showed us still as no better than average with him on the floor and historically bad when he was off the floor.  I think expecting JC to match Trae's impact is unrealistic.  He is good but not in the conversation for best offensive player in the league.  Can't expect that kind of impact from him.  But on a roster where the team's baseline / overall play is in the pack (as opposed to way below it) a positive differential has more impact.

I can't disagree there. I knew his value was going to decrease as teams adjusted to John PnR qualities. They have really been honing in on his strength issues. I am starting to realize why he used strength enhancement drugs.

PnR is such a part of John's game. I am glad he's added range but his impact just isn't close to last year where he was substantially better than everyone on the team.

As you said, he's better than most of our players offensively but he's in a convo with Cam right now. Not to say Cam can't be elite, some of his numbers are but Cam is raw, John is polished. I just expect more.

Edited March 9, 2020 by NBASupes

[High5]

2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

You don't understand what I am saying. Without John, our offensive rating was dead last, 30th! With John 8th. John was significant in terms of impact for us. 

 

This year, our offensive rating is bad with him and without him. His impact hasn't been much different on offense than Jabari Parker for us. Last year, he was a star impact wise. His PPP has exceptionally high. 

You really struggle with statistical analysis. You fixate on 1 or 2 numbers and let them completely drive your opinions. And you don't seem to ever consider the context of those numbers.

[NBASupes]

45 minutes ago, High5 said:

You really struggle with statistical analysis. You fixate on 1 or 2 numbers and let them completely drive your opinions. And you don't seem to ever consider the context of those numbers.

I don't struggle with these numbers as the eye test says his game isn't that impactful, the metrics agree. Unless you have a better plan, shoot at it

[JTB]

9 hours ago, NBASupes said:

I can't disagree there. I knew his value was going to decrease as teams adjusted to John PnR qualities. They have really been honing in on his strength issues. I am starting to realize why he used strength enhancement drugs.

PnR is such a part of John's game. I am glad he's added range but his impact just isn't close to last year where he was substantially better than everyone on the team.

As you said, he's better than most of our players offensively but he's in a convo with Cam right now. Not to say Cam can't be elite, some of his numbers are but Cam is raw, John is polished. I just expect more.

This isn’t really fair supes. He’s way too efficient offensively  to say he doesn’t have impact on the game ...if anything is driving your opinion it has to come from his defensive side which I or no one can make a argument on really 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

Quote

“I feel like if more people watch the game, they would understand that I’m not just a pick-and-roll player,” Collins said. “I have an ability to swing the ball, run the floor, shoot, create offense for myself, post up, take advantage of mismatches. I feel like my ability to play within the team’s offense and not need the basketball and just play a role and be effective at it — I feel like that adds another layer to my game that I feel like some people don’t respect. I just think people say, ‘Oh, John and Clint are similar players. They will never play with each other.’ Now that I’m shooting the ball, I feel like it helps, but I think people still I’m stuck as a 5 maybe. They see me playing the 5, so they might be stuck seeing me in that light. I feel like we’re going to be effective together. I feel like I’m going to have more open shots now, too. I feel like the lane is going to open a lot more if I continue to shoot over 40 percent and have Cam (Reddish), Kev (Huerter), (De’Andre Hunter) and Trae (Young) running pick-and-rolls. In a basketball heaven, it sounds amazing.”

 

Quote

On defense, Collins is still fouling at the same rate as he was last year, 3.8 percent, which is slightly higher than the league average. As a whole defensively, Collins has progressed to become a solid defender. His block percentage jumped from 1.8 last season to 4.2 this season. His steal percentage jumped from 0.6 to 1. When he’s playing his natural position of power forward, opposing teams are shooting 2.2 percentage points worse at the rim. Because of his jump defensively, his box plus-minus has jumped from 0.9 to 3.4 this season, ranking 22nd in the league.

There is still the public perception that he’s not a good defender, but the numbers suggest otherwise. He’s in the 64th percentile in opponents’ points per possession on Synergy, but individual defensive metrics are hard to exactly measure, especially when the Hawks are bad defensively.

Some really interesting stuff from JC. This the most interesting.

Quote

“I definitely feel like I am in max contract contention. If I finish this season averaging 20 and 10, the other guys who are averaging 20 and 10 are max-caliber guys. I’m in that conversation and feel like I am worthy of being extended as such. That’s for the Hawks to decide and figure it out. If you want to look at numbers and flat-out play, I definitely feel like I’ve earned it. But the team situation, future cap and all that, now you have a contract negotiation.”

Collins understands that not being offered the max is a real possibility and says he would not feel slighted if that’s what the Hawks choose to do. He’s going to continue to try to be the best ambassador of the team he can be. He wants to be one of the faces of the franchise, but he also wants to be paid like one.

There’s also the possibility the Hawks will wait until the summer of 2021 to pay Collins and let him enter restricted free agency so the market could set itself.

“I wouldn’t take it personal, but my antennas would be up, for sure,” Collins said. “If I can leave it at that. My antennas would be up.”

 

[JTB]

16 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Some really interesting stuff from JC.

His defensive metrics are interesting not going to lie but other than his improved blocks its hard to see it by the eye test ...NOW with that said it’s very possible it’s hard to see because he’s still not full time at PF like he will be when capela returns.

capelas presence being on this team and holding down the center position is everything!

i for one never said Collins can’t improve defensively ...always believed he could...would like to see better lateral movement from him defensively out on the perimeter though but he’s not out there enough for me to completely judge that he can’t fully do it.

 

all good stuff the metrics are indeed interesting and to think they’ve improved even without capela . Also big props to JC shooting 40% on his 3s!!!! That’s just extremely amazing. Either way he’s going to get paid by someone. It would be better if we extended him next off season though 

[KB21]

Here is the issue with Collins believing he is a max salary guy just because he is one of 5 guys who go 20/10.

Giannis 11 WAR

Jokic 8.8 WAR

Towns 5.9 WAR

Embiid 4.9 WAR

Collins 1.8 WAR

There is a significant difference in his impact on winning games when compared with those other players.  Also note, that Collins has played around the same minutes this year as Embiid despite the fact that he missed 25 games.

[JayBirdHawk]

10 minutes ago, JTB said:

His defensive metrics are interesting not going to lie but other than his improved blocks its hard to see it by the eye test ...NOW with that said it’s very possible it’s hard to see because he’s still not full time at PF like he will be when capela returns.

capelas presence being on this team and holding down the center position is everything!

i for one never said Collins can’t improve defensively ...always believed he could...would like to see better lateral movement from him defensively out on the perimeter though but he’s not out there enough for me to completely judge that he can’t fully do it.

 

all good stuff the metrics are indeed interesting and to think they’ve improved even without capela . Also big props to JC shooting 40% on his 3s!!!! That’s just extremely amazing. Either way he’s going to get paid by someone. It would be better if we extended him next off season though 

What I like is that he's shooting a variety of 3s now, not just from the top of the key.

This was also interesting:

Quote

The move to acquire Capela was well received by the Hawks’ young players, Collins said, who all want to accelerate the process. He feels like that move told them that they’re being heard when it comes to upgrading the roster

 

[Buzzard]

5 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Here is the issue with Collins believing he is a max salary guy just because he is one of 5 guys who go 20/10.

Giannis 11 WAR

Jokic 8.8 WAR

Towns 5.9 WAR

Embiid 4.9 WAR

Collins 1.8 WAR

There is a significant difference in his impact on winning games when compared with those other players.  Also note, that Collins has played around the same minutes this year as Embiid despite the fact that he missed 25 games.

Maybe we should all note that about Embiid vs Collins as availability is pretty important. Some would say it is #1 in importance; especially come playoff time.

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

Maybe we should all note that about Embiid vs Collins as availability is pretty important. Some would say it is #1 in importance; especially come playoff time.

I agree, but despite Embiid’s availability concerns, he still contributes more than twice as much to winning as Collins.

[Buzzard]

4 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I agree, but despite Embiid’s availability concerns, he still contributes more than twice as much to winning as Collins.

Only in the games he plays in and Embiid is about to turn 26 this month. He should be four years ahead of Collins and this 25 to 30 year old window that Embiid is in, is considered peak by most experts.

We constantly measure Collins against 25 to 30 year olds and I think a lot of us forget he will not even turn 23 until September.

[KB21]

Just now, Buzzard said:

Only in the games he plays in and Embiid is about to turn 26 this month. He should be four years ahead of Collins and this 25 to 30 year old window that Embiid is in, is considered peak by most experts.

We constantly measure Collins against 25 to 30 year olds and I think a lot of us forget he will not even turn 23 until September.

So, we have to wait till these young guys are 25-26 years of age before we start winning?