Coronavirus!

[macdaddy]

1 minute ago, bleachkit said:

I'm looking forward to Abbot laboratories portable 5 minute test being widely available soon. I think that will be a game changer for the NBA. They could test all players, coaches, staff and camera crew on site, and do it daily. The test is molecular, not an antibody test, so it catches it early. With that knowledge in hand they could have games with a very negligible risk of spreading Covid-19. I would see no reason why games without crowds could not take place.

That could be a game changer for all of us. 

[sturt]

11 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

We currently have states competing with each other for resources to fight this.   That's really bad and screams for strong federal intervention. 

I'm not sure what you're suggesting that isn't already happening from the federal side. New York is getting an appropriately more acute level of support than is, say, Michigan, than is Arkansas.

 

[sturt]

2 hours ago, bleachkit said:

Another thing about Dr.Fauci, he has been wrong often throughout his career. His predictions about HIV turned out wrong, so did his predictions about H1N1. Earlier in March at a congressional hearing he said Covid-19 has a fatality rate of 2%. That number will prove to be way too high. Any honest look at the data and the nature of highly contagious viral infections will show a rate of well below 1%. I'm not saying this shouldn't be taken seriously, but I think it's irresponsible for so-called experts to use highly questionable numbers to make their case.

I'm not pretending to know Fauci's career back-and-forth, but what I've seen him say thus far has been as responsible as I've seen any scientist/administrator. He speaks in terms of ranges and what the current models look like in comparison to what is being experienced in other countries who are ahead of us in the timeline. Same for Birx. It is the nature of these things that one cannot account for all of the variables involved, so I don't get too chafed about predictions in the first place, while at the same time, realizing that people just need to feel the experts are monitoring things enough to be able to respond with something more than a "we'll just have to see what happens" when asked for numbers. But, in truth, we really will just have to see what happens.

[macdaddy]

4 minutes ago, sturt said:

I'm not sure what you're suggesting that isn't already happening from the federal side. New York is getting an appropriately more acute level of support than is, say, Michigan, than is Arkansas.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/03/30/cuomo-says-ventilators-cost-50000-up-from-20000-as-states-compete-for-the-devices/#4614aa4778b3

Quote

Cuomo said that ventilators now cost over $50,000, as opposed to the $20,000 when the state first attempted to purchase them, because states are competing with each other to obtain enough of the devices in anticipation of a surge of patients.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490263-shortage-of-medical-gear-sparks-bidding-war-among-states

Quote

A shortage of life-saving medical gear has pitted states against each other and the federal government as they scramble to try to purchase the medical equipment needed to fight COVID-19.

Governors have been pleading with the Trump administration to take charge and make sure states can access enough equipment, but President Trump has been reluctant to do so, urging states to order their own personal protective equipment.

Experts and governors said the lack of a central coordinating authority has turned the medical supply market into a free-for-all. 

 

[bleachkit]

6 minutes ago, sturt said:

I'm not pretending to know Fauci's career back-and-forth, but what I've seen him say thus far has been as responsible as I've seen any scientist/administrator. He speaks in terms of ranges and what the current models look like in comparison to what is being experienced in other countries who are ahead of us in the timeline. Same for Birx. It is the nature of these things that one cannot account for all of the variables involved, so I don't get too chafed about predictions in the first place, while at the same time, realizing that people just need to feel the experts are monitoring things enough to be able to respond with something more than a "we'll just have to see what happens" when asked for numbers. But, in truth, we really will just have to see what happens.

He seems like a well meaning doctor but his forecasts throughout his career have been way off the mark. It's like a weatherman always calling for thunderstorms. I suppose he has to do that, because if he under guesses on an eventual pandemic he will get lambasted and his career could be over.

[sturt]

@macdaddy first, my original point still holds. What ventilators that the federal government held in their stockpile are, indeed, being rationed out according to the understood need.

In response to your quotes, I hear you, but again, what would a "central coordinating authority" mean in a market economy? We aren't a communist country, though it's been clear for all of my lifetime that there is no shortage of reporters whose writing reflects angles and words that push for government ownership of industries.

The more sober economist response to a 150% spike in prices is to increase the supply... which is why that's what's being attempted. But these are not simple devices to make, so it takes a GM and it takes a Ford and it takes a GE with their extent of resources to engage... which is exactly what the federal government is attempting to coordinate right now. It was remarkable to me last night to watch the ABC evening news and note how little they said about any of that. It is a pox on the journalism trade that there is such a focus on panic reporting, to the exclusion of anything else.

 

[sturt]

6 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

He seems like a well meaning doctor but his forecasts throughout his career have been way off the mark. It's like a weatherman always calling for thunderstorms. I suppose he has to do that, because if he under guesses on an eventual pandemic he will get lambasted and his career could be over.

Um. Well. I dunno. I'd have to be more explicitly educated about those forecasts you speak of... but I highly doubt that the top admin in the NIH Infectious Disease Control office who began serving in the Reagan administration is, at 79, concerned about keeping his job.

[bleachkit]

3 minutes ago, sturt said:

Um. Well. I dunno. I'd have to be more explicitly educated about those forecasts you speak of... but I highly doubt that the top admin in the NIH Infectious Disease Control office who began serving in the Reagan administration is, at 79, concerned about keeping his job.

Perhaps not his job at this point, but his legacy. I'm not trying to impugn the guy, I'm just looking at the back of the baseball card.

[macdaddy]

9 minutes ago, sturt said:

@macdaddy first, my original point still holds. What ventilators that the federal government held in their stockpile are, indeed, being rationed out according to the understood need.

In response to your quotes, I hear you, but again, what would a "central coordinating authority" mean in a market economy? We aren't a communist country, though it's been clear for all of my lifetime that there is no shortage of reporters whose writing reflects angles and words that push for government ownership of industries.

The more sober economist response to a 150% spike in prices is to increase the supply... which is why that's what's being attempted. But these are not simple devices to make, so it takes a GM and it takes a Ford and it takes a GE with their extent of resources to engage... which is exactly what the federal government is attempting to coordinate right now. It was remarkable to me last night to watch the ABC evening news and note how little they said about any of that. It is a pox on the journalism trade that there is such a focus on panic reporting, to the exclusion of anything else.

 

It's a national emergency.  The federal government should be coordinating the production and distribution of needed supplies and by all accounts those efforts have been haphazard and late so far.   That's not the media talking.  That's what states are saying both red and blue.  

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I think some of you guys think that people are just pulling these projection numbers out of thin air.  The death numbers aren't high enough for concern for most people, which is why some are still comparing this to the flu.

Keep an eye on this website daily.  Go through the various links and look at the graphs.  

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

You don't have to comment on the stats every day.  Just keep your eyes on what is happening.  Keep your eyes on the trends,  The number of cases and deaths have been doubling every 3 to 4 days.   It's the exponential rate of infections and deaths that have these doctors making the predictions.  Especially if things go unchecked.

Italy's lockdown seems to have been working . . . or it may be just not enough people are going to get checked out.  Their daily death rates haven't surpassed 1,000 a day either, which is great.  Spain has also seen the number of cases level off below 10,000 a day.  But the death toll continues to rise closer and closer to 1,000 per day.  Yesterday they were at 913 dead.

US governors are starting to take it seriously, and put more restrictive measures in place.  That may help to start reducing the number of cases and deaths by the end of the month.  But we haven't see what the peak of this looks like.  I don't think we're even close.

 

I honestly still beat myself up a little for not being more prepared, especially when people started buying the masks ( which the CDC may recommend we all do by later this week ). I was one of the ones in denial about it coming to America.  Once it got to Italy and Europe, that was the time to act.  The smart people put their plan of action into place at the end of February.  I had increased my food buying a little, but not much.  It wasn't until the NBA cancelled the season, and then the WHO labeled this as a pandemic, that myself and everyone else went into prep mode.  By then, the masks were gone.

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

22 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

It's a national emergency.  The federal government should be coordinating the production and distribution of needed supplies and by all accounts those efforts have been haphazard and late so far.   That's not the media talking.  That's what states are saying both red and blue.  

 

And that's why the states have started to look out for themselves.  If they can't rely on the Feds, they have no choice but to do it themselves.

Remember though, this actually started out as local mayors doing what they needed to do in order to stop or slow down the spread, before the Governors wanted to act.

[sturt]

30 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

The federal government should be coordinating the production and distribution of needed supplies and by all accounts those efforts have been haphazard and late so far. 

Um. I just said that the federal government is working to increase the supply, and offered the example that I did... the one that all of us who watched yesterday's briefing know about, but that oddly enough, wasn't apparently good enough to make the ABC evening news.

I do not dispute that perhaps the efforts were late. I don't know that, any more than I know what trades Schlenk may have been offered over the last year... what goes on behind the scenes, by definition, isn't really well-understood. What we do know is that whatever efforts were made whenever they were made, the bottom line is we do not have enough right now according to what public health officials estimate.

I do not dispute that the efforts have seemed haphazard to us on the outside. But it is harder for me to be convinced that they have been, indeed, haphazard. Ventilators, again, are not simple things to produce according to what I've read and heard. To ratchet up production of anything of any complexity like that, in the space of weeks, is no doubt daunting and complicated in terms of establishing the engineering, arranging for the supply chain for all of the variety of buttons and levers and hoses, and then the electronics, and so forth.

 

[thecampster]

24 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I think some of you guys think that people are just pulling these projection numbers out of thin air.  The death numbers aren't high enough for concern for most people, which is why some are still comparing this to the flu.

Keep an eye on this website daily.  Go through the various links and look at the graphs.  

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

You don't have to comment on the stats every day.  Just keep your eyes on what is happening.  Keep your eyes on the trends,  The number of cases and deaths have been doubling every 3 to 4 days.   It's the exponential rate of infections and deaths that have these doctors making the predictions.  Especially if things go unchecked.

Italy's lockdown seems to have been working . . . or it may be just not enough people are going to get checked out.  Their daily death rates haven't surpassed 1,000 a day either, which is great.  Spain has also seen the number of cases level off below 10,000 a day.  But the death toll continues to rise closer and closer to 1,000 per day.  Yesterday they were at 913 dead.

US governors are starting to take it seriously, and put more restrictive measures in place.  That may help to start reducing the number of cases and deaths by the end of the month.  But we haven't see what the peak of this looks like.  I don't think we're even close.

 

I honestly still beat myself up a little for not being more prepared, especially when people started buying the masks ( which the CDC may recommend we all do by later this week ). I was one of the ones in denial about it coming to America.  Once it got to Italy and Europe, that was the time to act.  The smart people put their plan of action into place at the end of February.  I had increased my food buying a little, but not much.  It wasn't until the NBA cancelled the season, and then the WHO labeled this as a pandemic, that myself and everyone else went into prep mode.  By then, the masks were gone.

 

 

 

[macdaddy]

3 minutes ago, sturt said:

Um. I just said that the federal government is working to increase the supply, and offered the example that I did... the one that all of us who watched yesterday's briefing know about, but that oddly enough, wasn't apparently good enough to make the ABC evening news.

I do not dispute that perhaps the efforts were late. I don't know that, any more than I know what trades Schlenk may have been offered over the last year... what goes on behind the scenes, by definition, isn't really well-understood. What we do know is that whatever efforts were made whenever they were made, the bottom line is we do not have enough right now according to what public health officials estimate.

I do not dispute that the efforts have seemed haphazard to us on the outside. But it is harder for me to be convinced that they have been, indeed, haphazard. Ventilators, again, are not simple things to produce according to what I've read and heard. To ratchet up production of anything of any complexity like that, in the space of weeks, is no doubt daunting and complicated in terms of establishing the engineering, arranging for the supply chain for all of the variety of buttons and levers and hoses, and then the electronics, and so forth.

 

What you're describing is the definition of poor leadership though.   What's going on behind the scenes is, as you said, not something we can get a glimpse into, but good leadership would provide answers and not have the local leadership panicked.  The feds have the ability to mandate production of these supplies and even set the cost.   The 'free market' (which doesn't really exist) can not solve this problem unless you're ok with decimation.  The federal government doling out a few ventilators that they have in their stock pile isn't a great example of strong leadership.  And when someone says we need X amount of ventilators, saying 'eh i don't think you do' isn't leadership at all.  

The front lines of this is a huge mess especially in NY and the other hot spots.   Medical professionals are getting infected and dying.  They are passing the virus on.  Even if we just all look out for our own self interest we should be avoiding having to go to a hospital right now at all costs.  The hospitalization rate for this is very high.  I think everyone can agree on that.  And that's not a place you want to be right now.   Hell i'm avoiding ladders, sharp knives, and undercooked foods.  

[thecampster]

First, I need to go back up and like your post Northcyde. Will handle that after this.

Last year at the end of the year, it was announced my group was moving into a 20x20 glass enclosed room we refer to as the command center. I threw up objections as the room is poorly ventilated and we'd be sharing desks (hot seating). I was belittled.  Once we moved in, I ended a meeting during open discussion about people being responsible and at the first sight of illness, stay home. The response was the same. A few weeks later Covid-19 hit China and after about a week (5k cases ish) I went directly to my supervisor and asked him if anyone had started looking at the BCP and work from home options. He stated we aren't there yet and this thing is in China. It will blow over, probably won't get here. I took him aside and told him I did not believe it was nothing but I didn't think it was the end of the world either. We just had to be real about it. He told me if I was so concerned, I could make sure all of the team tested their VPN access from home and that we the team contact list was accurate.   A few weeks later he comes to me and says, "hey did you handle that stuff?" I hand it over and he tells me I'm on the test team for a week for work from home. I tell him I'm not coming back. We'll all be home by next week. Well we aren't there yet he says.  4 days into work from home, we all got told to stay home.

I think this pretty much sums up why we are where we are today. Way too many people said...meh...not me.

I'm not a prepper, but I was raised by 2 WW2 parents. They always had a stocked pantry and I learned it from them. I always have extra TP and always extra paper towel. I don't run out of hand soap, laundry detergent or dish soap. Its just secnd hand WW2 mindset. When I went to the store and came home with a few cases of water, restocked the pantry and bought everything from a few extra cases of soda to extra flour and sugar, even my wife rolled her eyes. 

I've been following the stories online about how this will change America's mindset for years to come and have been thinking about the same things. I'm just glad I'll stop being the weird one who prepares and constantly thinks in terms of risk.

[macdaddy]

16 minutes ago, thecampster said:

First, I need to go back up and like your post Northcyde. Will handle that after this.

Last year at the end of the year, it was announced my group was moving into a 20x20 glass enclosed room we refer to as the command center. I threw up objections as the room is poorly ventilated and we'd be sharing desks (hot seating). I was belittled.  Once we moved in, I ended a meeting during open discussion about people being responsible and at the first sight of illness, stay home. The response was the same. A few weeks later Covid-19 hit China and after about a week (5k cases ish) I went directly to my supervisor and asked him if anyone had started looking at the BCP and work from home options. He stated we aren't there yet and this thing is in China. It will blow over, probably won't get here. I took him aside and told him I did not believe it was nothing but I didn't think it was the end of the world either. We just had to be real about it. He told me if I was so concerned, I could make sure all of the team tested their VPN access from home and that we the team contact list was accurate.   A few weeks later he comes to me and says, "hey did you handle that stuff?" I hand it over and he tells me I'm on the test team for a week for work from home. I tell him I'm not coming back. We'll all be home by next week. Well we aren't there yet he says.  4 days into work from home, we all got told to stay home.

I think this pretty much sums up why we are where we are today. Way too many people said...meh...not me.

I'm not a prepper, but I was raised by 2 WW2 parents. They always had a stocked pantry and I learned it from them. I always have extra TP and always extra paper towel. I don't run out of hand soap, laundry detergent or dish soap. Its just secnd hand WW2 mindset. When I went to the store and came home with a few cases of water, restocked the pantry and bought everything from a few extra cases of soda to extra flour and sugar, even my wife rolled her eyes. 

I've been following the stories online about how this will change America's mindset for years to come and have been thinking about the same things. I'm just glad I'll stop being the weird one who prepares and constantly thinks in terms of risk.

Thanks Camp.  This is good stuff and I'm glad you were there for your team.   I'm sure they are thankful.

On this type of subject, and in an effort to be more helpful, i wanted to get some opinions on groceries.   At some point we all have to get more food.   What is everyone's thoughts on grocery delivery?   On one hand it is another person touching all your stuff vs. personally going to the store and being exposed.   And then there is the ethical question of putting someone else at risk so I don't have to venture out.   (realizing that they need the money but still).

I'd be interested in everyone's thoughts.   No judgement for sure because there are no really good answers here. 

[JayBirdHawk]

2 hours ago, bleachkit said:

I'm looking forward to Abbot laboratories portable 5 minute test being widely available soon. I think that will be a game changer for the NBA. They could test all players, coaches, staff and camera crew on site, and do it daily. The test is molecular, not an antibody test, so it catches it early. With that knowledge in hand they could have games with a very negligible risk of spreading Covid-19. I would see no reason why games without crowds could not take place.

How soon is it scheduled to be available and in what quantities?

Will it be used to just test symtomatic patients? Or EVERYBODY?

[sturt]

19 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

and even set the cost. 

Addressing the more important part first, all due respect, I encourage you to do some more reading on the pros and cons of price controls. There's a reason we don't ever do that. Actually, reasons, plural.

20 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

The feds have the ability to mandate production of these supplies

Yes, but so what? It's the same outcome whether you mandate GM to do it, or if they agree to do it. On balance, I think it's usually more productive in the long term when people agree to do X rather than it being forced upon them... or, having to deal with the imagery of it being forced upon them when they were ready to be cooperative all along.

25 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

What you're describing is the definition of poor leadership though. 

Maybe so. But we don't have to make decisions about the overall performance of the leadership until it actually matters next fall.

This has been my chronic pleading, that we resist this media-driven push to see everything as a direct or indirect influence on what will happen next November... hyperpoliticism.

 

How better to invest our time and effort then?

 

Criticize what deserves criticism that can actually be changed... and... compliment what deserves complimenting, such as actually making the leading scientists a part of practically every WH briefing. Arguably the smartest thing Trump has done has been to not hog the WH briefing to himself, but to have relatively-well respected voices accompany his.

33 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

The 'free market' (which doesn't really exist) can not solve this problem unless you're ok with decimation.

I don't even know what that means.

The free market is our only lever to solving this problem, just like it is for anything else. Even if you're suggesting socialism, it's not like the US government can snap its fingers, take over GM, and tomorrow have car plants re-tooled to make ventilators. 

 

39 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Even if we just all look out for our own self interest we should be avoiding having to go to a hospital right now at all costs.  The hospitalization rate for this is very high.  I think everyone can agree on that.  And that's not a place you want to be right now.

Yes. We do.

 

 

 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

33 minutes ago, thecampster said:

First, I need to go back up and like your post Northcyde. Will handle that after this.

Last year at the end of the year, it was announced my group was moving into a 20x20 glass enclosed room we refer to as the command center. I threw up objections as the room is poorly ventilated and we'd be sharing desks (hot seating). I was belittled.  Once we moved in, I ended a meeting during open discussion about people being responsible and at the first sight of illness, stay home. The response was the same. A few weeks later Covid-19 hit China and after about a week (5k cases ish) I went directly to my supervisor and asked him if anyone had started looking at the BCP and work from home options. He stated we aren't there yet and this thing is in China. It will blow over, probably won't get here. I took him aside and told him I did not believe it was nothing but I didn't think it was the end of the world either. We just had to be real about it. He told me if I was so concerned, I could make sure all of the team tested their VPN access from home and that we the team contact list was accurate.   A few weeks later he comes to me and says, "hey did you handle that stuff?" I hand it over and he tells me I'm on the test team for a week for work from home. I tell him I'm not coming back. We'll all be home by next week. Well we aren't there yet he says.  4 days into work from home, we all got told to stay home.

I think this pretty much sums up why we are where we are today. Way too many people said...meh...not me.

I'm not a prepper, but I was raised by 2 WW2 parents. They always had a stocked pantry and I learned it from them. I always have extra TP and always extra paper towel. I don't run out of hand soap, laundry detergent or dish soap. Its just secnd hand WW2 mindset. When I went to the store and came home with a few cases of water, restocked the pantry and bought everything from a few extra cases of soda to extra flour and sugar, even my wife rolled her eyes. 

I've been following the stories online about how this will change America's mindset for years to come and have been thinking about the same things. I'm just glad I'll stop being the weird one who prepares and constantly thinks in terms of risk.

My husband has been following this stuff since January on BBC World News. I was a little on the skeptical side initially, but he kept talking about it.

Eventually, I took note, that 1st week in March we started gradually preparing, not over buying but - stocking the pantry with a more non perishables, a few extra can goods, taking stock of toilet paper, paper towels, detergent, bath and hand soap, etc. so we didn't have to bum rush the supermarket to get stuff by the time the State of Emergency was declared.

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

21 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

What you're describing is the definition of poor leadership though.   What's going on behind the scenes is, as you said, not something we can get a glimpse into, but good leadership would provide answers and not have the local leadership panicked.  The feds have the ability to mandate production of these supplies and even set the cost.   The 'free market' (which doesn't really exist) can not solve this problem unless you're ok with decimation.  The federal government doling out a few ventilators that they have in their stock pile isn't a great example of strong leadership.  And when someone says we need X amount of ventilators, saying 'eh i don't think you do' isn't leadership at all.  

The front lines of this is a huge mess especially in NY and the other hot spots.   Medical professionals are getting infected and dying.  They are passing the virus on.  Even if we just all look out for our own self interest we should be avoiding having to go to a hospital right now at all costs.  The hospitalization rate for this is very high.  I think everyone can agree on that.  And that's not a place you want to be right now.   Hell i'm avoiding ladders, sharp knives, and undercooked foods.  

 

I just told my mother that in a conversation I had with her this morning.  She suffers from COPD, so she's definitely a high risk group to be attacked by this virus. 

I flat out told her that she/I need to keep her as healthy as possible, so that we don't have you going to the hospital.  She had a pretty severe case of pneumonia/bronchitis that hit her in the summer of 2015.  She had to be intubated and was on a ventilator in ICU for 9 days.  The doctors were set to give her a tracheotomy if she didn't improve on Day 10, but she improved good enough on that day for her to breathe on her own.  5 days later, she was released into a nursing home for 30 days for rehabilitation. 

Hospitals and nursing homes are the very last place I want her to be during this time.

My aunt, who is also a COPD sufferer, is having kidney stones removed tomorrow.  Cases in my county aren't bad yet, and the hospital has already taken measures to only allow patients coming into the hospital.  No visitors.   Hopefully with this surgery, she can be in and out of there in a day or two.

 

So far in Tennessee ( according to the Tennessee Department of Health )

• Number of tests given:  23,304
• Number of positive tests:  1,834  ( 7.9% ) . . . this number has risen a little.  It was around the 7.5% mark ) . . . new numbers today say that we're over 2,000 cases
• Number of people hospitalized that are positive:  148 ( 8% )
• Number of deaths of people with COVID-19:  13 . . . ( 0.7% ) . . this will rise as this virus is starting to go through nursing homes and through Memphis. 

 

We've been lucky so far that the hospitalizations and deaths aren't higher.  But now they're starting to trend up.  It killed a pastor in Memphis today.

https://wreg.com/news/coronavirus/local-pastor-dies-from-complications-of-covid-19/