JayBirdHawk

Coronavirus!

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9 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

This. At this point, I’m not doing it for selfish reasons and that’s ok.

Like I said before, I'm not in favor of reopening the country so someone can keep their 2nd yacht.

 

So going back to the numbers I was spouting 10 days ago (ish).

https://www.yahoo.com/news/flu-deaths-were-counted-covid-053449918.html

"If flu deaths were counted like COVID-19 deaths, the worst recent flu season evidently killed 15,620 Americans".

 

For those who consistently say this is like the flu, READ THE ARTICLE. Not the headline, not one or two lines that sound like what you're thinking. READ THE WHOLE FRICKEN THING".

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LP demonstrating how to get around lockdown defenders.

 

 

~lw3

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Couldn't help but notice that in each of these short posts I read this morning, there is captured a prominent piece of what it is to be human in this slice of time.

 

2020-05-05_1220.png

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On 4/17/2020 at 11:17 AM, Dnice said:

I bought some of these since it was going to charity anyway and let me say save your money.   These things suck.  They are no where near as big as they look in the picture (is that Kris Humphries?).

And they don't even use proper elastic.  it's basically cotton straps, barely covers nose and mouth and pretty much just leaves openings everywhere. 

Anyone know where to get some decent masks?

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28 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I bought some of these since it was going to charity anyway and let me say save your money.   These things suck.  They are no where near as big as they look in the picture (is that Kris Humphries?).

And they don't even use proper elastic.  it's basically cotton straps, barely covers nose and mouth and pretty much just leaves openings everywhere. 

Anyone know where to get some decent masks?

🤔..I'm supposed to get ours next week. 

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Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

🤔..I'm supposed to get ours next week. 

I'm pretty critical so let me know what you think.   And mine came like two weeks early so you may get them anyday.  

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2 hours ago, macdaddy said:

I'm pretty critical so let me know what you think.   And mine came like two weeks early so you may get them anyday.  

Ok, will do.

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On 5/1/2020 at 6:18 AM, thecampster said:

Like I said before, I'm not in favor of reopening the country so someone can keep their 2nd yacht.

 

So going back to the numbers I was spouting 10 days ago (ish).

https://www.yahoo.com/news/flu-deaths-were-counted-covid-053449918.html

"If flu deaths were counted like COVID-19 deaths, the worst recent flu season evidently killed 15,620 Americans".

 

For those who consistently say this is like the flu, READ THE ARTICLE. Not the headline, not one or two lines that sound like what you're thinking. READ THE WHOLE FRICKEN THING".

Eh, not going to read the article as yahoo is clearly a left leaning organization that has an agenda to push.  I’d rather just trust what I’ve actually seen as a physician.  I haven’t had to put one person into the hospital that has had this virus.  The worst patient had what was equivalent to a bad case of influenza.  

I’ll tell you the biggest impact this virus has had though.  People are scared to go to the doctor now, and as a result, my patient load on a daily basis has dropped precipitously.  Ten employees at my clinic have been furloughed, and several others that work in the system I am a part of have been furloughed because the hospital is running at less than half capacity.  

A steel fabricating factory in the area I work has shut down, which means the area has lost 170 jobs due to this foolish shutdown.  

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9 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Eh, not going to read the article as yahoo is clearly a left leaning organization that has an agenda to push.  I’d rather just trust what I’ve actually seen as a physician.  I haven’t had to put one person into the hospital that has had this virus.  The worst patient had what was equivalent to a bad case of influenza.  

I’ll tell you the biggest impact this virus has had though.  People are scared to go to the doctor now, and as a result, my patient load on a daily basis has dropped precipitously.  Ten employees at my clinic have been furloughed, and several others that work in the system I am a part of have been furloughed because the hospital is running at less than half capacity.  

A steel fabricating factory in the area I work has shut down, which means the area has lost 170 jobs due to this foolish shutdown.  

You know better than to focus on anecdotal evidence.  We are close to a 9/11 every day right now.

Glad your patients have not suffered any serious effects from this illness but many people world-wide have not been so lucky.

The steel industry issue is likely much more complicated than corona.  Steel fabricating operations have been closing down in the US on a consistent trend for decades.  If this operation couldn't deal with reduced orders for a few months, it was likely on the brink of shutting down before any of this happened.  Doesn't diminish the impact on the community or the big picture angle on domestic steel capacity and downstream operations but the biggest impact has been Chinese dumping.

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19 minutes ago, AHF said:

You know better than to focus on anecdotal evidence.  We are close to a 9/11 every day right now.

Glad your patients have not suffered any serious effects from this illness but many people world-wide have not been so lucky.

The steel industry issue is likely much more complicated than corona.  Steel fabricating operations have been closing down in the US on a consistent trend for decades.  If this operation couldn't deal with reduced orders for a few months, it was likely on the brink of shutting down before any of this happened.  Doesn't diminish the impact on the community or the big picture angle on domestic steel capacity and downstream operations but the biggest impact has been Chinese dumping.

This isn’t even remotely close to a 911 on a daily basis right now.  We have hospitals that are labeling every death as related to COVID so they can get CARES money and larger reimbursements from the government controlled insurances.  We have “sources” who are attributing every death associated with pneumonia to this virus.  

This virus is real, but it’s far more widespread right now than the numbers show, and the fatality rate of this virus is around 10 times lower than what is being reported.  Never before have we ever quarantined healthy people during a pandemic.

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13 hours ago, KB21 said:

This isn’t even remotely close to a 911 on a daily basis right now.  We have hospitals that are labeling every death as related to COVID so they can get CARES money and larger reimbursements from the government controlled insurances.  We have “sources” who are attributing every death associated with pneumonia to this virus.  

This virus is real, but it’s far more widespread right now than the numbers show, and the fatality rate of this virus is around 10 times lower than what is being reported.  Never before have we ever quarantined healthy people during a pandemic.

We lost 2977 in 9/11.

We lost 2528 yesterday.

I guess that isn't remotely close to you but it is significant to me.

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20 minutes ago, AHF said:

We lost 2977 in 9/11.

We lost 2528 yesterday.

I guess that isn't remotely close to you but it is significant to me.

C'mon man...that's only on pace to lose 75,000 this month.

Okay, full disclosure here. Both my wife and myself work in industries where we are able to work from home. What I mean by this, is the financial impact hasn't reached me yet. If anything, I've put less miles on my car, put less electricity into it, eaten at restaurants less and have a very safe comfortable place to ride this out. So I fully admit my views are biased. I am in no hurry to reopen, because the only inconvenience to me is the public park and silver comet trail were shut down for a month.

I understand the financial hardship this will cause some individuals. I realize some will lose their businesses, marriages might end, some people might go hungry. I realize these impacts, I do. But I've weighed that against the worst case estimates that if we fully reopen as many as 350,000 could be lost. I've weighed it against the emotional toll taken by emergency workers, the strain on systems, etc. I realize that this could change everything from voting blocks to the loss of many elderly Americans and the disabled could actually help shore up the Social Security system vs the loss of social security contributions caused by people not working. I've worked it all out, but in risk management you care about life before property every time and that's the angle I'm taking. Though its possible I'm completely biased by my fortunate circumstance.

Edited by thecampster

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Hospital capacity and activity should be the metric that determines policy, not the number of positive cases, or even deaths. Positive cases shouldn't be a surprise. It's a highly infectious virus, of course there will be millions and millions of positives. Covid-19 deaths are not all the same. Yes a life is a life, but a healthy 30 year old dying of Covid-19 is a lot different than an 80 year old with stage 5 cancer. One died of Covid-19 and one died with Covid-19, that's an important distinction. The best indicator is the hospitals. If something is really bad, hospital beds are full, ICUs are full. Bad flu seasons have overwhelmed hospitals. As long as the health care system is in good shape, opening the economy should proceed. If hospitals are swamped, lockdowns have to remain in place. 

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7 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Hospital capacity and activity should be the metric that determines policy, not the number of positive cases, or even deaths. Positive cases shouldn't be a surprise. It's a highly infectious virus, of course there will be millions and millions of positives. Covid-19 deaths are not all the same. Yes a life is a life, but a healthy 30 year old dying of Covid-19 is a lot different than an 80 year old with stage 5 cancer. One died of Covid-19 and one died with Covid-19, that's an important distinction. The best indicator is the hospitals. If something is really bad, hospital beds are full, ICUs are full. Bad flu seasons have overwhelmed hospitals. As long as the health care system is in good shape, opening the economy should proceed. If hospitals are swamped, lockdowns have to remain in place. 

The one thing we know is that taking no preventative measures will overwhelm the local hospitals.   We've seen that all over the world.   You can't lockdown after the hospitals are overwhelmed without losing a bunch of lives and putting lots of people at risk.

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14 minutes ago, thecampster said:

C'mon man...that's only on pace to lose 75,000 this month.

 

Right.  Are we talking past each other?  

We had lost 6394 total on April 1.

Through May 6, just over a month, we have lost  74,799.  That is a pace of a little over 2000 per day with the pace increasing from the early April rate over that time.  Really hope it slows down but this is not the flu.  This is much more impactful.

image.png

 

 

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6 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

The one thing we know is that taking no preventative measures will overwhelm the local hospitals.   We've seen that all over the world.   You can't lockdown after the hospitals are overwhelmed without losing a bunch of lives and putting lots of people at risk.

Not necessarily. There has been a lot of variation from region to region. The reasons might be climate, demographics, population density, etc. Many areas, I would say even most, can proceed with opening the economy. A one size fits all strategy is unduly punitive to areas where it is not necessary. 

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8 minutes ago, AHF said:

Right.  Are we talking past each other?  

We had lost 6394 total on April 1.

Through May 6, just over a month, we have lost  74,799.  That is a pace of a little over 2000 per day with the pace increasing from the early April rate over that time.  Really hope it slows down but this is not the flu.  This is much more impactful.

image.png

 

 

Holy Crap! This is the apocalypse! You and I have been in total agreement from day 1. It might be time to start rethinking my life choices.😔

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6 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Not necessarily. There has been a lot of variation from region to region. The reasons might be climate, demographics, population density, etc. Many areas, I would say even most, can proceed with opening the economy. A one size fits all strategy is unduly punitive to areas where it is not necessary. 

Agree but we haven't been doing a one size fits all.   

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