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Coronavirus!


JayBirdHawk

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12 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

And now POTUS is on his way to Walter Reed Hospital.

 

SMH.

Yeah, I may disagree with a lot he stands for, but I'm praying he gets better and recovers.  I also want him to take this much more seriously once he recovers.

There are rumors that his brother passed away from Corona, but that's not confirmed. 

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54 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

And now POTUS is on his way to Walter Reed Hospital.

 

SMH.

This is either very serious or one big scam, it's really sad that I'm giving the side eye chloe.

It's sad and frustrating!

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57 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

:blanky: 

 

There's this thing that many conservatives say, personal responsibility which I'm a big proponent of.  In this instance, did you follow the protocols to prevent this?  

From what I've read they did not.  Don't blame China for something that's been here for almost a year.  

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Your radar should be going off when this virus is basically nothing more than a flicker of light right now and you suddenly have a mass rush of positive tests.  

The tests are specious at best, and no decisions should be made off the results of these tests.  It should have always been a symptoms based approach.  How many of these positive tests are actually sick?  

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16 hours ago, High5 said:

Almost everyone who has tested positive in the last couple of days was at the SCOTUS nomination on Saturday, shoulder-to-shoulder and without masks. Loeffler was there as well. 

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Hugs and handshakes everywhere too...

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3 hours ago, KB21 said:

Your radar should be going off when this virus is basically nothing more than a flicker of light right now and you suddenly have a mass rush of positive tests.  

The tests are specious at best, and no decisions should be made off the results of these tests.  It should have always been a symptoms based approach.  How many of these positive tests are actually sick?  

With you being a physician, this is a scary analysis.

If it's any person on the planet that you need to err on the side of caution with, it's the President of the United States . . a man who is in his 70s, obese, and constantly in denial about the disease itself.

At some point, people must take the politics out of this. If it doesn't happen NOW, it never will.

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13 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

With you being a physician, this is a scary analysis.

If it's any person on the planet that you need to err on the side of caution with, it's the President of the United States . . a man who is in his 70s, obese, and constantly in denial about the disease itself.

At some point, people must take the politics out of this. If it doesn't happen NOW, it never will.

He isn't the first doctor I've heard talk this way. If you go way, way back to when this all started, I made a statement which shocked a few on this board, took a bit of flak. I said the first thing we are going to have to do is come to grips with the fact that people are going to die. We need to accept that. Meaning that the best way to approach this has always been from a risk management perspective. KB's analysis is about the fearmongering that has gone along with this. Some people are using it for political gain (both sides). Radar going off was a really good way to bring attention to the fact that its business as usually and then a flood of information once it fits a narrative. Doctors are finding it a big hinderance.

 

Take for example the 200,000 deaths number.

See this chart from the CDC. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Week ending date in which the death occurred All Deaths involving COVID-19 (U07.1)1 Deaths from All Causes Percent of Expected Deaths2 Deaths involving Pneumonia, with or without COVID-19, excluding Influenza deaths
(J12.0–J18.9)3
Deaths involving COVID-19 and Pneumonia, excluding Influenza
(U07.1 and J12.0–J18.9)3
All Deaths involving Influenza, with or without COVID-19 or Pneumonia
(J09–J11), includes COVID-19 or Pneumonia4
Deaths involving Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19
(U07.1 or
J09–J18.9)5
Total Deaths 195,312 2,105,460 112 199,387 88,320 6,710 312,089

 

You can see that the total deaths during this time were 2.1 million. Death in which Covid was a factor, 195,312. the percent of expected deaths shows the increase over last year. If we take total deaths divide by 1.12 you would get what they expected to have 1,879,875. Subtract that from the 2.1 million number and you get 225,585. What this means. We should have seen an increase of 225,000 deaths this year from Covid as its the only other factor and we were close with 195,000. Now go down the chart a bit you can see the covid deaths that included another pneumonia were 88,000. Meaning that whether or not Covid was the cause is unknown as there were 2 illnesses at play and another 6700 included influenza. It would be easy to digest that for a number of the 225000 increased deaths, that Covid play a role in speeding up an eventuality. IE covid + cancer, covid + hiv, covid +copd are all bad combinations. Patient X would have died eventually but Covid sped up that choice. Meaning that at some point post vaccinations we would see a drop in the expected death numbers. Morbid conversation...absolutely but a necessary one to push through fearmongering and using Covid for personal political gain. The real number of people killed by Covid alone is much lower than the current 200,000 figure and the real question we should have been asking from the beginning is what is the acceptable amount of risk we are willing to assume as a society and individual.

 

If people stopped warehousing, shipping, etc we would have run out of food in weeks, especially in the inner cities. As we saw with toilet paper, the oversupply is really only a fraction of what we have available. The political types playing with this from the beginning really screwed this whole mess up. Politics should have never entered this arena. From the very first weeks when we were shutting down flights from overseas and it was used to call the president a racist to the flame fanning of "china virus". All of it was done to score points and hurt the early messaging, of which should have been....this thing kills...the best thing we can do is minimize that. Lets work together to minimize it and to help those that suffer.

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16 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

With you being a physician, this is a scary analysis.

If it's any person on the planet that you need to err on the side of caution with, it's the President of the United States . . a man who is in his 70s, obese, and constantly in denial about the disease itself.

At some point, people must take the politics out of this. If it doesn't happen NOW, it never will.

In medical school, I was taught to treat the patient, not the lab test or medical test.  I have seen probably 750-800 positive tests for this virus in the past 6 months.  I have essentially been a coronavirus doctor for the most part during this time.  At one point, I was seeing 90-100 patients a day in the urgent care clinic while testing 80-90 of them.  On those days, it was nothing to have 25 plus positive tests.  That peak happened in the middle part of July.  I peaked at around 28% positivity around July 18th.  Since then, the numbers have gone down drastically.  The last three days I've been in the clinic, I've seen around 150 patients with only 3 positive cases.  Of those positive cases, no one was very sick.  The most common symptom was loss of taste and smell.  The biggest risk factors are age and obesity.  Of those 750-800 positive cases I saw, I sent only 5 to the hospital.  I had only 1 patient that passed away from this.

As far as treating this virus, I tried a few different modalities.  What I saw was that no matter what I did, people recovered from this virus with no issues.  I used HCQ on some.  I used indomethacin on some.  I used a cocktail of vitamin D, zinc, and vitamin C on some.  My clinic has around 30 personnel, and of those, only 3 actually caught this virus.  One of those three catches everything that comes around.  Another had loss of taste and smell only for around 3 days.  The other had 4-5 days of body aches and diarrhea.  

Here is where I have some issues.  I have one patient come in with cough, body aches, temp of 101, overall feels bad.  Typical flu like illness.  This patient tests negative for coronavirus.  I have another patient come in that doesn't have a single symptom.  He was just "exposed" to the virus.  Temp is normal.  Pulse rate is normal.  100% sats on his oxygen.  This patient tests positive.  Well, guess what.  The employer wants me to send the one that is sick back to work since that patient tested negative.  The one that doesn't have any symptoms has to stay at home for 14 days.  I have a big issue with sending sick people back to work and keeping nonsick people off work.  So, I quarantine the sick one despite what the employer wants.  I quarantine the nonsick one because I essentially have no choice.  

Another issue I have is repeat testing.  If you had this virus, have been quarantined for 10 days, and have been afebrile for 24 hours, you can go back to work.  You should not have to be retested, because these tests are picking up dead viral particles which triggers a positive result.  At some point though, you just stop arguing with the employers who have no idea what they are talking about and just do the test.  If they are positive, you keep them off for 5 more days.  

The decline in the numbers also doesn't have anything to do with mask mandates, no matter what politicians and the media try to tell you.  What's happening is areas are reaching community immunity to this virus.  There is a strong T cel response to this virus, and memory T cells are the key to keeping you from being reinfected.  They are also going to be the key in this virus being little more than a cold virus when it flares back up after some of the immunity wanes.  Long term, this virus isn't going to be any different than the other four human coronaviruses that cause the common cold.  There is around 95% homology between the viruses, and that's the reason some have not gotten it.  They have either had or have been exposed to the other coronaviruses.  

Another prediction of mine is that because of the methods used to "combat" this virus, we are in for a hellacious influenza season.  You may say, we have a flu vaccine that will help.  In a good year, maybe 30% of the people who get the vaccine actually develop an immunity to it.  What's more effective is the exposure to the lower level of influenza that people come into contact with during the summer months.  An exposure many haven't had this summer.

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