Will Trae lead us to a Championship?

[AHF]

48 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Wow really?

Not cavalierly but why should that scare us?  Getting the right return is the key.  The Bulls traded away #8 pick Olden Polynice and #9 pick Charles Oakley during their first 3 years in the league.  Ended up with Pippen and Cartright.

The Lakers traded a 23 year old Adrian Dantley.  Also traded the #8 pick, #3 pick, #2 pick and #12 all in their first 3 years.  Ended up with Kareem and overcame the bad trade with Dantley.

Just think we can't fear a trade if the right offer comes along.

[sturt]

1. Trading good young talent on rookie scale contracts for good veteran talent on normally much larger contracts usually doesn't translate... so, normally anyhow, it's a non-starter proposition.

2. Such a trade could theoretically be an alternative way to use cap space, except (a) by definition, you're acquiring talent that the other team considers to be lesser value than what you're sending to them, and (b) the beauty of using cap space, instead, on simply signing one or more free agents is that you're not giving up anything other than cap space.

So, on balance, I'm not bullish on making any trades until we've exhausted our cap space this or next off-season.

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Not cavalierly but why should that scare us?  Getting the right return is the key.  The Bulls traded away #8 pick Olden Polynice and #9 pick Charles Oakley during their first 3 years in the league.  Ended up with Pippen and Cartright.

The Lakers traded a 23 year old Adrian Dantley.  Also traded the #8 pick, #3 pick, #2 pick and #12 all in their first 3 years.  Ended up with Kareem and overcame the bad trade with Dantley.

Just think we can't fear a trade if the right offer comes along.

Agreed but Butler isn’t the guy we trade a Cam or Hunter.

[AHF]

41 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Agreed but Butler isn’t the guy we trade a Cam or Hunter.

I'm not high on Butler for that fit given our timeline and his temperment.  Just saying I wouldn't put any of our wings in the untouchable column yet.  Cam is closest for me.  Trae is the only one who is untouchable for me for all practicable purposes on the roster.

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

  Cam is closest for me.

Ya he’s untradeable to me. And Trae. I’d put Collins close as well. Hunter and Huerter in that order after those three.

[macdaddy]

I actually really like Butler but his play the last couple of years has seemed inconsistent.  I had a memory of his game 7 against the Raps being bad and just checked.  it was really bad.  16 points on 20 shots.  1 three.  1 assist. 4 rebounds.  played 42 minutes.  

[kg01]

20 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I actually really like Butler but his play the last couple of years has seemed inconsistent.  I had a memory of his game 7 against the Raps being bad and just checked.  it was really bad.  16 points on 20 shots.  1 three.  1 assist. 4 rebounds.  played 42 minutes.  

Jimi Buttler is as overrated a "star" as ever.  He's never won a playoff series as a team's best player yet people speak of him (and he carries himself) as if he's got rangs or something.

People like the "idea" of him.  "Ohh look, a star player that works hard and blah, blah, blah ... oooh he brings his hard hat to work, blah, blah ..."

The reality is, just like many players, he's pretty good but not that good.  He's a different version of Demar Derozan (impact-wise, not game-wise).

[AHF]

I put him a level above Demar Derozan but don't disagree with your assessment that he isn't a true superstar.  I think he could be a very valuable piece on a championship team but it needs to be one more similar to him being added to the Lakers (someone else is the best player and he is a star supporting role) than him coming to a lottery team and pushing them to a title.

[JayBirdHawk]

Yes.

[Wretch]

I'm with North in that I am a Butler fan.  This team needs toughness.  It needs an %sshole or two on and off the court, but this isn't the right fit for him.  For one, I don't see Jimmy the way he sees himself - which is among the league's elite.  He's good, but he's a Joe Johnson.  He's better as a 2nd option.  He would certainly be that behind Trae, but the chemistry is wrong for where he is and where our guys are in their careers. 

Give me this Jimmy, but on this team 4 years from now.

[Vol4ever]

If not Jimmy Butler who would you pick that has his mentality?  

[TheNorthCydeRises]

12 hours ago, macdaddy said:

I actually really like Butler but his play the last couple of years has seemed inconsistent.  I had a memory of his game 7 against the Raps being bad and just checked.  it was really bad.  16 points on 20 shots.  1 three.  1 assist. 4 rebounds.  played 42 minutes.  

 

It was actually 16 points on 14 shots.   Here's the game in question though.

 

 

He averaged 22 pts - 7 rebs - and almost 6 asst in this series, by the way.  And was the clear leader of that team.

Edited March 20, 2020 by TheNorthCydeRises

[TheNorthCydeRises]

This is a great interview with Jimmy Butler on JJ Redick's podcast.  He tells his side of the story on a number of things.   LP would probably like Jimmy, and appreciate his honestly.

 

 

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, Vol4ever said:

If not Jimmy Butler who would you pick that has his mentality?  

Marcus Smart

Patrick Beverly 

Serge Ibaka 

Jusuf Nurkic

Trez Harrell

Domantas Sabonis

Jaylen Brown

Klay Thompson

Victor Oladipo

Jrue Holiday

Pascal Siakam

Paul George 

Draymond Green

[AHF]

10 hours ago, Vol4ever said:

If not Jimmy Butler who would you pick that has his mentality?  

8 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Draymond Green

Let it be known henceforth that on this day the 20th day of March in the year of our Lord 2020 that  @Spud2nique, the ultimate party animal, the hardcore believer in and of all things Hawk, the lover of Luka Doncic, the destroyer of NBA2K said he would pick Draymond Green, warrior of Golden State.

That is all.

[JTB]

On 3/18/2020 at 1:51 PM, TheNorthCydeRises said:

The topic is . . can Trae lead us to a championship?

 

Defensive rank of the past 20 NBA Champions

 

2019 Raptors - 5th

2018 Warriors - 11th

2017 Warriors - 2nd

2016 Cavs - 10th

2015 Warriors - 1st

2014 Spurs - 3rd

2013 Heat - 9th

2012 Heat - 4th

2011 Mavs - 8th

2010 Lakers - 4th

 

2009 Lakers - 6th

2008 Celtics - 1st

2007 Spurs - 2nd

2006 Heat - 9th

2005 Spurs - 1st

2004 Pistons - 2nd

2003 Spurs - 3rd

2002 Lakers - 7th

2001 Lakers - 21st

2000 Lakers - 1st

 

 

60% of championship teams have had Top 5 defenses

30% of championship teams have had Top 6 - 10 defenses

10% of championship teams have had defenses below Top 10

30% of 30% of championship teams have had Top 6 - 10 defense

 

The 2001 Lakers were a defensive outlier, like the 2004 Pistons were an offensive outlier at 18th.  When you consider that 85% of the champions for the past 20 years were 9th or higher in defense, it shows you how critical defense is to winning a title.

 

 

I’m not referring to just winners I’m just referring to getting to the finals period .

[sturt]

25 minutes ago, AHF said:

Let it be known henceforth that on this day the 20th day of March in the year of our Lord 2020 that  @Spud2nique, the ultimate party animal, the hardcore believer in and of all things Hawk, the lover of Luka Doncic, the destroyer of NBA2K said he would pick Draymond Green, warrior of Golden State.

That is all.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

41 minutes ago, JTB said:

I’m not referring to just winners I’m just referring to getting to the finals period .

Getting to the Finals doesn't make you a champion though.  You have to win the chip.

 

Here's something to look at.  We see that in this 20 year period that 9 teams have won a ring.

• LA Lakers ( 5 )
• San Antonio ( 4 )
• Miami ( 3 )
• Golden State ( 3 )
• Cleveland ( 1 )
• Boston ( 1 )
• Detroit ( 1 )
• Dallas ( 1 )
• Toronto ( 1 )

These 9 teams have exhibited the tendency to play high level defense in their championship runs, and have made multiple Finals appearances ( except Toronto, who just got in last year ).

How many other different teams have made the Finals and what was their defensive ranking?

• Indiana ( 2000 ) - 13th . . . best player ( Reggie Miller ) . . . one appearance
• Philadelphia ( 2001 ) - 5th . . . best player ( Allen Iverson ) . . . one appearance
• New Jersey ( 2002 ) - 1st . . . best player ( Jason Kidd ) . . . . New Jersey would return in ( 2003 )
• Orlando ( 2009 ) - 1st . . . best player ( Dwight Howard ) . . . one appearance
• Oklahoma City ( 2012 ) - 11th . . . best player ( Kevin Durant ) . . . one appearance w/Thunder

That's it.

The reason why defense is so critical to winning a championship, is because you're normally going up against an all time offensive great player to win that ring.  And if you can't stop him ( or his All-Star teammate ), you must be able to slow down everyone else.   The 2018 Warriors team that won the chip, shouldn't have made it out of the Western Conference Finals. 

That was Houston's time, who had the #1 offense and #6 defense in the league.  Of course, when you lay a complete egg in Game 6, and shoot 7 - 44 ( and an epic 0 - 27 ) from 3 point range in Game 7, you deserve to lose.  And speaking of the Rockets, defense is the reason why this year's team has fallen off the map.   If you're Houston ( 2nd in offense - 15th in defense ), you're not winning a chip under most circumstances.  The same goes for Dallas ( 1st in offense - 17th in defense ).

 

 

 

 

[sturt]

The priorities I believe are on the Colonel's shopping list this summer, in order:

1. If one can be had, one max or near-max talent

2. If possible (but likely not), a second max or near-max talent

3. One widely well-regarded 35-ish player who is still-productive enough to be part of the rotation--essentially filling Uncle Vince's role, but optimally even representing an productivity improvement

4. For those, and practically every other roster slot remaining to be filled, players who meet the criteria of either having a proven defensive pedigree or a having high-potential in that way.

 

Where is any of that wrong?

[AHF]

Can't really judge if several of these are right or wrong right now.  (It is possible we choose not to go after a max player hoping to entice a pair next summer, for example.)  

I would bet, however, that your statement of a 35-ish player is probably more of a general guideline to get an experienced vet for that role.  Maybe 35-ish but probably anywhere from 30-37 would be fine depending on the player.  Matters more that the player have experience and some gravitas / leadership skills to go with his play.