Will Trae lead us to a Championship?

[AHF]

7 hours ago, sturt said:

Whoa. That one might be bet-worthy. You want to think about that one and get back to me? Because there is only AD who is guarantee-worthy, and he may or may not choose that it's in his best interest to opt into free agency this time. And, because this may end-up being the most buyers-market July ever, given how few teams project at this point to have cap space... driving prices down, not up.

Yep.  Let’s bet now.

I win if a player other than AD gets a max or near max contract.

You win if AD is the only one who gets one.

Winner picks the others avatar for a month.

[Spud2nique]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

Yep.  Let’s bet now.

I win if a player other than AD gets a max or near max contract.

You win if AD is the only one who gets one.

Winner picks the others avatar for a month.

AHF wrapping the deal up real quick.

[sturt]

Just now, AHF said:

Yep.  Let’s bet now.

I win if a player other than AD gets a max or near max contract.

You win if AD is the only one who gets one.

Winner picks the others avatar for a month.

I've been wanting to use this GIF for so long, and finally the opportunity arises...

 

 

 

Okay, so we do have do define "near max," though. What would you propose? Max is max, of course... max in years 1-4 or 1-5, including max raises, right? So, what percentage of the max that a given player is eligible to get has to be gotten in order to qualify?

 

[Thomas]

My  problem with betting is all that math stuff. The pain up front is in all those details.

[Gray Mule]

With all that's going on right now - All sports shut down for at least several months - No team earning any money any time in the near future - This probably will mean paydays will have to change.

When will the NBA resume play?  Will baseball play any season at all in 2020?  What about soccer and the NFL?  Things are expected to get worse before they get better.  Don't want to panic any one but we must take all this into consideration.

God bless and stay safe!!!

[Thomas]

Am pretty surprised the NBA front office guys are talking about sizing up options for after the April 1rst payments to the players "already". As to what percentage if any and such

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28933602/nba-pay-players-full-salaries-april-1-uncertain-after

[AHF]

On 3/21/2020 at 10:32 PM, sturt said:

I've been wanting to use this GIF for so long, and finally the opportunity arises...

 

 

 

Okay, so we do have do define "near max," though. What would you propose? Max is max, of course... max in years 1-4 or 1-5, including max raises, right? So, what percentage of the max that a given player is eligible to get has to be gotten in order to qualify?

 

Want to use 87.5%?  90% looked too slim to me and 85% seemed good but split the difference to find a common ground number in case you thought 85% was too easy.  Still talking about roughly $30M for vets (based on prior max salary estimates).

[sturt]

So, this?

 

I'm in.

 

[AHF]

4 hours ago, sturt said:

So, this?

 

I'm in.

 

Obviously, numbers can change but that bottom graph looks like the right methodology.  So for a junior person, you are talking a salary next year of at least $25,156,250 based on a $108,426,582 cap (as cap number changes so does the 87.5% of max).  With more years of service, guys move into the ~$30M or ~$35M number (as precisely calculated from the cap).  If for any reason next season is on a reduced schedule, then you pro-rate it to an 82 game full year salary.

AHF wins if a player other than AD gets a max or near max contract.

Sturt wins if AD is the only one who gets one or no one (including AD) gets one.

Winner picks the other's avatar for a month.

Next year's salary needs to be at or above that 87.5% number to qualify as a near max contract.

 

Work?

[sturt]

Right. After July 1 (presumably), the exact numbers will come out. But the above is based on 8% and 5% raises each year on top of our best projections right now for each of the three categories.

 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

Right. After July 1 (presumably), the exact numbers will come out. But the above is based on 8% and 5% raises each year on top of our best projections right now for each of the three categories.

 

From my perspective, the key is the floor number that needs to be hit which is based on the max for others and so the bird numbers are irrelevant.  I'm not looking for this to be something were it counts as a near max for Atlanta to sign someone at price A but doesn't count as a near max for the player to resign with his old team at price A because there is a higher amount available if resigned using bird rights.  Just looking at the floor for signing with another team.

I'm good with a minimum deal of 3 years and 5% raises on top of that year 1 87.5% such that the player averages 87.5% over the 3 years (or 4 years). 

(Example:  If a player signs a fixed dollar deal for 4 years that starts at $28.75M (100% in year 1) and stays at that same level every year it doesn't matter that by year 4 it is less than 87.5% of the max with the 5% raises or $29,121,504.  As long as it averages what the 87.5% floor with 5% raises averages over that 4 year span that is what is needed.  So for this example, it would need to average $27,106,645.75 per year over its 4 year duration and the salary in any specific year doesn't matter.)

  

[AHF]

Will add it  to the list of bets then.