Let's Talk Draft Picks

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I say another defensive wing, as insurance if Cam doesn't work out. Plus, you always need those type players.

There are a couple of guys who could help like Zaire Williams. I am obviously not counting out Cam like you are. 

Edited April 18, 2021 by NBASupes

[marco102]

1 minute ago, bleachkit said:

I say another defensive wing, as insurance if Cam doesn't work out. Plus, you always need those type players.

Cam works out on the defensive side of the ball already. We are really lacking in size in the back up center position. 

This team shouldn't have offensive problems when you have Trae, Bogi, John, Hunter, Gallo, and Williams in the playoffs.  What we don't have is size  and two way potential in the backup center position which is why I"m enamored with Kai Jones. 

[bleachkit]

15 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

There are a couple of guys who could help like Zaire Williams. I am obviously not counting out Cam like you are. 

Not counting him out, but his stock is down. Hopefully he can bounce back next year. 

[Wretch]

22 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

With 75% of the season completed, which prospects were you right about and which ones were you dead wrong on?

 

 

Such a strange draft...  First time that I can think of where there were no prospects that I outright disliked.  Everyone was pretty much what I thought they'd be - with the exception of Hayes & Nesmith who both need more time/exposure to properly evaluate.

1) Was right about Melo, still unsure how it would've worked...but I would have taken him if for nothing but the asset value.
2) Didn't like Edward's attitude...still don't.  But he's performing about where I expected.
3) Hayes was #2 on my list (really #1 since Melo was out of reach).  Might have been a little off, but he has been injured.  He's looked ok in his few games back.
4) I liked Okoro a little better than Haliburton, but they're both looking good
5) Didn't dislike Onyeka as a player, just had him nowhere on my radar and didn't feel like we took BPA.  Still don't like the pick for us.

[Spud2nique]

28 minutes ago, Wretch said:

5) Didn't dislike Onyeka as a player, just had him nowhere on my radar and didn't feel like we took BPA.  Still don't like the pick for us.

Noted.  

[JayBirdHawk]

So, now that the 2020-2021 regular season is a wrap....how did the Lottery Picks fare:

What would a redraft look like based on the first year results? Who were you dead wrong on - good or bad?

[ATLHawks3]

12 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

So, now that the 2020-2021 regular season is a wrap....how did the Lottery Picks fare:

What would a redraft look like based on the first year results? Who were you dead wrong on - good or bad?

I still think we take Gwu. In a redraft it would go: 1. Edwards, 2. Ball, 3. Haliburton, 4. Wiseman, 5. Williams, 6. Gwu.

Edited May 17, 2021 by ATLHawks3

[sturt]

Just putting this here for future reference.

 

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, sturt said:

Just putting this here for future reference.

 

Are you trying to say that we suck at this???  Noted.

 

[sturt]

@Diesel PM'd you... answer is broader than that.

[AHF]

13 hours ago, sturt said:

Just putting this here for future reference.

 

I think focusing too much on any particular draft slot is probably not as instructive as looking at the range of picks around it but the point you are making is a good one to help set expectations.  Here are a couple of studies on value by slot that reinforce the amount of failure that comes with the handful of big successes like Jameer Nelson and Big Z:

Quote

Arturo Galletti, one of the main contributors at Wages of Wins, provides some interesting visuals in describing his take on the subject. Without specifying exactly which years he drew data from, he uses wins produced (WP) to measure basketball value, translates WP to a monetary value. 

Quote

Nate Silver's:  Like Galletti, he finds the “Net Profit” (the analogue of Galletti’s “Net Actual Value”) of first-round draft picks after translating wins to currency and discounting these values (which he calls “Net Value Produced at Free-Agent Market Rate”) by rookie salary obligations. However, unlike Galletti, Silver uses WS as his choice for evaluating basketball production, and he evaluates everything on a five-year basis.

Quote

Saurabh Rane's

Employing first-round data for the rookie classes from 1985 to 2012, he evaluates players with respect to their highest single-season __[value over replacement player][(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_over_replacement_player)__ (VORP) over the course of their careers. His approach is arguably more granular than that of others, which makes it relatively distinct. He neglects money considerations entirely and classifies players into one of four quartiles —All-NBA First-Teamer (top 2.5%), All-Star (top 10%), rotation player, or bust—while looking at seven ranges of picks—first, early lottery (picks 2 and 3), early-mid lottery (picks 4 to 6), mid-late lottery ( picks 7 to 10), late lottery (picks 11 to 14), mid-late first (picks 15 to 22), and late-first (picks 23 to 30).

Quote

Michael Lopez, an Assistant Professor of Statistics at Skidmore College.

He provides some input on the NBA in a broader analysis that compares the importance of draft picks in the four major American team sports. For the NBA draft specifically, he uses career WS and a locally weighted scatter-plot smoothing (LOESS) regression to model data from 1990 to 2005. 

https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-decision_analysis/what-research-says-about-nba-draft-pick-value.html

 

[sturt]

(I only supplied information. No point made here, of course. All are welcome to make their own points. I've privately indicated to Diesel what my takeaway is, though.)

[AHF]

26 minutes ago, sturt said:

(I only supplied information. No point made here, of course. All are welcome to make their own points. I've privately indicated to Diesel what my takeaway is, though.)

I think the information you supplied made a good point all the same.  The value we've gotten from our recent #19 picks has been exceptional.  Whether we are picking at 19 or 20, history would say that the odds of getting someone as good as Huerter or JC are very low.  Speaks to how good a job TS has done from that part of the draft in his opportunities.  And looking back at historic drafts there is almost always an All-Star available at the 20th pick in the draft - just exceptionally tough to ID them.

(Note:  I'm only listing one per year even though some years there are multiple all-stars available)

2000 Michael Redd

2001 Tony Parker

2002 Carlos Boozer

2003 Kyle Korver

2004 Jameer Nelson

2004 Kevin Martin

2005 David Lee

2006 Paul Millsap

2007 Marc Gasol

2008 DeAndre Jordan

2009 None (Jeff Teague almost makes it at 19)

2010 None

2011 Jimmy Butler

2012 Draymond Green

2013 Rudy Gobert

2014 Nikola Jokic

Etc.

[Jdawgflow]

21 hours ago, sturt said:

Just putting this here for future reference.

 

So we should trade the pick?  JMO based on this list.

[warcore]

I'm sure I'll catch some heat for this, but I'm looking at Kevin Huerter being a year away from an RFA status that we likely won't be able to match due to all the other players we have due for a pay day. His trade value is decent at this time.... I like the idea of packing him with #20 and possibly OKC pick to move into top 5/10. Jalen Green would be my target. Just thinking about trying to get something out of him before he signs with the highest bidder. (but loving his contributions these playoffs!)

[JayBirdHawk]

3 minutes ago, warcore said:

I'm sure I'll catch some heat for this, but I'm looking at Kevin Huerter being a year away from an RFA status that we likely won't be able to match due to all the other players we have due for a pay day. His trade value is decent at this time.... I like the idea of packing him with #20 and possibly OKC pick to move into top 5/10. Jalen Green would be my target. Just thinking about trying to get something out of him before he signs with the highest bidder. (but loving his contributions these playoffs!)

Hawks have an opportunity to offer him an early extension this offseason (like Trae).  If they can work out a reasonable deal, do it - if not he hits RFAcy (just like JC). I don't know if Huerter, #20 and OKC pick is enough to get in the top 5 especially in this draft.  Teams in the top 5 are looking for potential Franchise changing guys.

[JayBirdHawk]

12 minutes ago, warcore said:

I'm sure I'll catch some heat for this, but I'm looking at Kevin Huerter being a year away from an RFA status that we likely won't be able to match due to all the other players we have due for a pay day. His trade value is decent at this time.... I like the idea of packing him with #20 and possibly OKC pick to move into top 5/10. Jalen Green would be my target. Just thinking about trying to get something out of him before he signs with the highest bidder. (but loving his contributions these playoffs!)

Speaking of Huerter, this is a good read:

 

 

Quote

From the moment the Hawks signed Bogdan Bogdanovic this past offseason, Kevin Huerter knew what it would possibly mean for his starting shooting guard spot. But his mindset never changed.

“You don’t prepare any differently. I’m not oblivious to what happened,” Huerter told The Athletic on the day Bogdanovic signed. “You pay a guy a lot of money at your position, and for me, right away, I thought that every day was going to be bigger competition, and every day you come in and push him and he pushes me, and we make each other better. This happens in the NBA. Look at winning teams, and roles are defined. I think the first couple of years here, we had a lot of young guys. Especially in my rookie year, I was getting minutes I didn’t deserve yet. But who else did we have to play? So you play me and see what I could do and see what we have in myself. They decided to develop me and give me a ton of minutes. For us to flip the page and turn the corner, I think roles are going to become a lot more defined.

My preparation hasn’t changed. I’ve said from the start that I want to win. We’ve brought in guys at every position, and it’s bigger competition for everyone. It’s going to make everyone better in the long run.”

That’s exactly what happened with Huerter this season — he’s gotten better on both ends of the floor. His flexibility in being able to change roles game-to-game, week-to-week and minute-by-minute showed how much value having someone like Huerter can bring for the Hawks, and it’s been on display through four games in the playoffs.

In the regular season, because of injuries to De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish, Huerter had to take on a much bigger role defensively in guarding everyone from point guards to stronger small forwards. In this series against New York, Huerter has defended Alec Burks and Derrick Rose the most, according to NBA.com’s tracking data. Coming into this season, Huerter knew he wasn’t viewed as a strong on-ball defender, and it was one of the biggest knocks against him and his potential future with Atlanta because building a team around Trae Young requires strong perimeter defenders.

Huerter has proven in Year 3 that he is more than capable of holding his own on that end of the floor.

“I can be a good defender in this league. I think it’s something I’ve continued to prove all year,” Huerter said. “In this playoffs, it’s been much of the same. A lot of that is my activity and trying to be in passing lanes and being in the right spots defensively on the ball and keeping ballhandlers in front. In the playoffs, you’re so locked in on guys’ tendencies that in some ways it’s easier defensively to go in games with a really solid game plan knowing exactly what you’re going to do. Defensively, what I’ve learned is how to lock in to a scouting report and try to carry that out game-by-game.”

“I think what happens a lot of times, especially for younger players, is when the offensive player makes a move and gets a step on them so they’re side-by-side — instead of the defender being in front — a lot of times, players will give up and reach for the basketball,” said Steve Dagostino, Huerter’s basketball trainer. “What he’s learned is putting his hands up and not fouling and using his body to be more physical. Instead of letting that offensive player drive straight by, he’s bumping the player off the line. That makes a big difference and allows him to recover. I think that’s the biggest thing. I think he’s always done a pretty good job of keeping guys in front, but when the offensive player gets a step, instead of getting blown by, he’s able to recover and use his body to keep the guy in front.”

Quote

Not only has Huerter improved defensively, but his offensive game has rounded out more this season where he’s now able to step inside the 3-point line to make shots, which was a struggle for him in his first two seasons. Getting to the rim and finishing is still a challenge, but his midrange game has dramatically improved. He went from hitting only 39 percent of his midrange attempts last season and 36 percent in his rookie season to 48 percent this year, ranking him in the 90th percentile for all wings, per Cleaning The Glass. The confidence he has in his short midrange pull-up shot from around 10 feet away has been evident all season now and has continued in the playoffs.

What we’ve seen out of Huerter offensively is he now knows where his spots are on the floor and how to get to them consistently.

“I think the biggest thing when you’re playing in the paint, especially for a guy his size, is just dealing with the physicality and staying balanced while you have contact,” Dagostino said. “I think he’s done a good job with that. I also think he’s simplifying his reads and finishes, too. He’s not doing a million different moves when he gets to the paint. He’s got that little pull-up when he gets in there. He’s going stronger to the basket. I think early on in his career, he would get pushed off his line and then get off balance. He’s just simplified his finishes and gotten better with contact.”

 

[warcore]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Hawks have an opportunity to offer him an early extension this offseason (like Trae).  If they can work out a reasonable deal, do it - if not he hits RFAcy (just like JC). I don't know if Huerter, #20 and OKC pick is enough to get in the top 5 especially in this draft.  Teams in the top 5 are looking for potential Franchise changing guys.

Oh I'm well aware. I just think he's played/busted his ass out of a contract that we can reasonably afford. I don't think he will settle for less than $10 mil per in today's space n' pace NBA. Especially given the strides he's made defensively, as mentioned above. Love the dude but in this business I feel like we can't afford a contract like that off our bench.... would like to lock in another rookie scale contract that we can handle easily for another 4 years. 

[sturt]

Automatic 2nd round candidate, because the story would just be too cool if he ever got on the floor in a Hawks uni... his dad was our first-ever international draft pick, but as far as I know, never left France.

https://eurospects.com/player/tom-digbeu/

 

[sturt]

More seriously than the previous post which was more about the novelty of Digbeu... this stash would make me mighty pleased.