Let's Talk Draft Picks

[AHF]

15 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

Well I guess that settle it.  Hunter will be the star while Cam won't!

 

Yep.  You nailed it.  No need to go further into what those data aggregation studies are communicating.  

[TheNorthCydeRises]

8 hours ago, kg01 said:

Let's roll ..... to perpetual lotto land we're desperately trying to escape.

 

Oh . . you want Melo instead? 

OK

 

PG - Trae / Melo

Wing - Reddish / Huerter

Wing - Hunter / vet FA xhooter ( Joe Harris )

PF - Collins / Fernando / Skai

PG - Green / Wiseman

 

Just now, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Oh . . you want Melo instead? 

OK

 

PG - Trae / Melo

Wing - Reddish / Huerter

Wing - Hunter / vet FA xhooter ( Joe Harris )

PF - Collins / Fernando / Skai

 C - Green / Wiseman

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

9 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

We can't trade back to back future picks 2022 and 2023 (Stepian rule)..and I'm strongly opposed to trading fully unprotected picks.

Are we really a better team trying to make the playoffs adding two lottery picks on THIS draft?

 

There's at least 2 Hall of Famers in every draft  Yes, you can find one-offs where the draft is extremely weak and there's not any HOFs in it.   But in most cases, you have guys who are going to be real good and a few guys who will be great.

If the Hawks can obtain the first 2 picks in this draft ( wild scenario ), why not go for it?

 

I forgot about the Stepien Rule.  Change the 2023 to 2024, and put top 5 protections on the 2022 and 2024 picks.

[AHF]

33 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

There's at least 2 Hall of Famers in every draft  Yes, you can find one-offs where the draft is extremely weak and there's not any HOFs in it.   But in most cases, you have guys who are going to be real good and a few guys who will be great.

If the Hawks can obtain the first 2 picks in this draft ( wild scenario ), why not go for it?

 

I forgot about the Stepien Rule.  Change the 2023 to 2024, and put top 5 protections on the 2022 and 2024 picks.

Looking back 20 years from the start of this season, here are my best guesses:

1999 - Less than 2

2000 - Less than 2

2001 - Likely 2

2002 - Less than 2

2003 - 3 or 4 of them 

2004 - Less than 2

2005 - Less than 2

2006 - Less than 2

2007 - Between 1 and 3

[TheNorthCydeRises]

On 10/17/2020 at 6:59 PM, AHF said:

Here is a study posted on 82games:

 

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

 

So it looks like they took a 20 year snapshot from 1989 - 2008.  

And here's the criteria they used to determine if a player was a star or not

Career Numbers:  ppg + rpg + apg = rating

• Star -- 20+ rating
• Solid -- 15 to 19.9
• Role Player -- 10 to14.9
• Deep Bench -- 5 to 9.9
• Complete Bust -- less than 5
• DNP -- (never played in the NBA)

 

I'm curious to see what  2009 - 2019 ( 11 more years ) looks like.

As I started to do this, guys like Ricky Rubio and Tyreke Evans would be considered "star" players.  So I added one more category "Good" . . that would be for players with a 20 - 25 rating.  Anything over a 25 rating would get star consideration.

I say "consideration" because I wanted to put my "eye test" to players for each category, and see if they belonged there.  Like despite his numbers, I can't consciously put Julius Randle ( a career 16 ppg - 9 rebs - 3 asst guy ) into the "star" category.

 

So this is how the following 11 years would look, in my eyes:

 

pick	star	good	solid	role	bench	bust	DNP
1	8	1		1		1
2	1	4	3	2		1
3	5		5	1
4	1	3	4	2	1
5	2	3	1	2	3
6	1	1	2	4	3
7	2	2	4	3
8		2		7	2
9	3	1	2	3	2
10	1	2	1	4	3
11	1	2	2	3	3
12			5	5	1
13	2	1	3	3	2
14		2	1	4	3	1
TOTAL	27	24	33	44	23	3	0

Only busts would be Anthony Bennett ( of course ) and Hasheem Thabeet

 

 

 

 

 

[kg01]

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Oh . . you want Melo instead? 

OK

 

Yeah I....I don't even know what this means, brolio.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Looking back 20 years from the start of this season, here are my best guesses:

1999 - Less than 2

2000 - Less than 2

2001 - Likely 2

2002 - Less than 2

2003 - 3 or 4 of them 

2004 - Less than 2

2005 - Less than 2

2006 - Less than 2

2007 - Between 1 and 3

 

1999 - Agree. Manu will get in with the 4 rings and his play internationally.

2000 - Agree.  Didn't know Jamal Crawford had 19,000+ points. But he won't get in

2001 - I'll say 3.  Parker, Gasol, and Joe Johnson, based on his late career reputation as a clutch shooter.  Joe has 20,000+ points, which is almost automatic to get in.

2002 - Agree.  Yao will be the only HOF out of that class

2003 - Agree. 3 locks ( Lebron, Melo, Wade ) . . and I say Bosh has to go too.

2004 - Maybe 2.  Dwight is a lock.  But Iggy with that Finals MVP and 3 rings, may have to get in as well.  He doesn't have the numbers though.

2005 - Agree.  Only Chris Paul will get in

2006 - Eh.  LaMarcus Aldridge will eventually have the numbers to get in. Would be nice to see him as a 3rd scorer on a championship level playoff team though. Rondo MIGHT get in. He's still relatively young ( 33 ) and has 2 rings.

2007 - 1 and 3?  Durant is definitely the 1.  But do you think Conley, Marc Gasol, or ( gasp ) Al Horford have a shot?  Gasol may get International consideration. Conley may need a ring to be considered.  I think Horford has no shot, seeing his play with high level teams in Boston and Philly.

[AHF]

10 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

2004 - Maybe 2.  Dwight is a lock.  But Iggy with that Finals MVP and 3 rings, may have to get in as well.  He doesn't have the numbers though.

2006 - Eh.  LaMarcus Aldridge will eventually have the numbers to get in. Would be nice to see him as a 3rd scorer on a championship level playoff team though. Rondo MIGHT get in. He's still relatively young ( 33 ) and has 2 rings.

2007 - 1 and 3?  Durant is definitely the 1.  But do you think Conley, Marc Gasol, or ( gasp ) Al Horford have a shot?  Gasol may get International consideration. Conley may need a ring to be considered.  I think Horford has no shot, seeing his play with high level teams in Boston and Philly.

On these, I don't think Iggy will make the cut so I put him out on that.

I don't think Rondo will make it.  

Gasol has the easy button with the international piece.  Don't think he has a legit case based on his play but he'll probably get in.

Aldridge and Horford are in the same bucket for me.  Aldridge will have higher numbers but less playoff success.  I like Horford's career better between the two.  One of them getting in is probably the most likely scenario and I tend to agree with you that the higher number total is likely to get LA to be that guy if it happens.  For Horford, I think his performance in Boston was pretty excellent.  He has been a bad fit and a bit washed in Philly.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[bleachkit]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Don't get Gramps excited.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 minute ago, bleachkit said:

Don't get Gramps excited.

Especially for @Gray Mule

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

Quote

Obi Toppin sounds like the most popular prospect in the 2020 NBA draft.  He might not be No. 1, but practically every scout and executive Bleacher Report has spoken with has expressed confidence in his potential, fit and character.  Sources tell B/R the Minnesota Timberwolves are high on Toppin. The question is whether they'd be willing to take him first overall or if they'd only draft the big man out of Dayton in a trade-down scenario. Teams are buying into Toppin's scoring carrying over based on his explosiveness, inside-out skill level and efficient volume production. And while they acknowledge the concerns about his defense, nobody seems too alarmed or ready to suggest they'll negate or neutralize his projected offensive output.

While teams may take needs and fit into account more this year (based on the perceived parity among prospects), there is a sense any team could take Toppin—including one he doesn't fit perfectly with like the Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers or Atlanta Hawks—because of the stronger likelihood he receives a best-player-available nod over more divisive prospects.

He still falls under the perceived "safe" category with Tyrese Haliburton, Isaac Okoro, Deni Avdija and Onyeka Okongwu. But teams see more upside tied to Toppin's vertical bounce, three-point shot, post game and passing. The perception is that he offers the most favorable ratio of risk and reward. 

Multiple NBA front office members told B/R they feel they can mask Toppin's defensive weaknesses by playing him at center, where he won't guard as much around the perimeter and can still use his athleticism for shot-blocking at the rim. 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2913808-how-high-will-2020-nba-drafts-most-popular-prospect-climb

[thecampster]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-timberwolves-high-obi-toppin-222500338.html

 

[thecampster]

So if Toppin to Minny happens (and I'm not buying this story), expect non-sense and foolishness at the top of the draft as teams can finally get past Minny to line up for Ball. Edwards is getting interest again and if Toppin goes 1, Ball 2, then expect team to jump into trading discussions again. If Toppin goes 1, Edwards 2 expect the Knicks to trade up to 3/4.

[NBASupes]

3 hours ago, thecampster said:

So if Toppin to Minny happens (and I'm not buying this story), expect non-sense and foolishness at the top of the draft as teams can finally get past Minny to line up for Ball. Edwards is getting interest again and if Toppin goes 1, Ball 2, then expect team to jump into trading discussions again. If Toppin goes 1, Edwards 2 expect the Knicks to trade up to 3/4.

That might also be why the Knicks have engaged with Cleveland at 5 as well interest in Okoro. Overall, they haven't been trying to trade up but down to gain additional assets. 

[bleachkit]

Seems like Edwards, Ball and Toppin will go in the top 5 somewhere. Okoro and Avdija might go top 5, which means Wiseman could fall. 

[terrell]

9 hours ago, thecampster said:

So if Toppin to Minny happens (and I'm not buying this story), expect non-sense and foolishness at the top of the draft as teams can finally get past Minny to line up for Ball. Edwards is getting interest again and if Toppin goes 1, Ball 2, then expect team to jump into trading discussions again. If Toppin goes 1, Edwards 2 expect the Knicks to trade up to 3/4.

A Nice player will be there at 6..Okoro,Hali,Okungwu,etc...........Maybe even Deni, Wiseman,...Gonna have some options if Wiseman is still there.....Call Popovich immediately..Lets see how much they really love him....lol

Edited October 20, 2020 by terrell

[JayBirdHawk]

 

1. Wolves - Ball

2. Warriors - Wiseman

3. Hornets - Edwards

4. Bulls - Advija

5. Cavs - Toppin

No. 6 — Atlanta Hawks: Isaac Okoro, W, Auburn

There were two strong options on the board for the Hawks to consider in this spot: Okoro and Iowa State guard Tyrese Haliburton. The Hawks need a dependable backup point guard to Trae Young, and Haliburton not only fits that role but also can play with and without Young. Haliburton shot over 40 percent from 3 in both his seasons for the Cyclones and is a good defender. 

Atlanta goes with the 6-foot-6, 225-pound Okoro though to give it arguably the best defender in the draft, which is needed for the Hawks because they have one of the worst defenders in the league in Young. Adding Okoro to the roster gives them a solid defensive unit to go with Clint Capela, Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter. Okoro does have some playmaking ability in his game, but he’s not at the stage yet where he should be considered a secondary playmaking option right away, but the handles and vision that he showed at Auburn does give promise to him being a dependable passer. 

Unlike Reddish and Hunter, too, Okoro excels at driving to the rim, which is something both Hawks rookies struggled with last season. Okoro did struggle shooting from 3, but there is hope that he’ll be at least a league-average shooter from the perimeter. If he does get better with shooting, there’s plenty of upside to believe he can be one of the best players in this draft. 

Atlanta did offer the 6th pick, 50th pick and Oklahoma City’s lottery-protected 2022 pick and Dewayne Dedmon to Chicago for Tomáš Satoranský and No. 4, but the Bulls didn’t bite. Acquiring Satoransky could solve the backup point guard issue, and the Hawks could have their pick in Avdija or Okoro at No. 4. — Chris Kirschner

To move up 2 spots to still take Okoro????? Yuck.

[mrhonline]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

Unlike Reddish and Hunter, too, Okoro excels at driving to the rim, which is something both Hawks rookies struggled with last season.

I've been thinking this is something that gives Okoro an edge.  But I just don't see how you ever play both him and Capela together.

[JayBirdHawk]

33 minutes ago, mrhonline said:

I've been thinking this is something that gives Okoro an edge.  But I just don't see how you ever play both him and Capela together.

Then he plays with Dedmon or Collins who can space the floor.