Hawks Free Agent Targets

[sturt]

11 hours ago, AHF said:

has any player who was good enough to make an All-Star team not been resigned by the team that held his RFA rights following the conclusion of their initial rookie deal? 

 

11 hours ago, sturt said:

It's a valid question.

And/but right away I'm struck by the thought that it would seem to be an especially rare situation that a player meeting that description wasn't extended in the first place...

And rarer still, where there was some extant division of thought among NBA executives in general about whether the player in that circumstance had shown sufficient production/development to merit a max contract...

And for any given year, there would be some ebb and flow in the number of teams that would even have the capacity to offer a max contract (... and thus, push the player's current team to the wall).

Probably, then, a more interesting question than it is a relevant one to the extent that the question is designed to predict what will happen in the Ingram situation (as it appears it is).

But again, it is interesting, so I'm all for one of our community gathered here taking on the research project if someone wants to step up and do that.

 

 

That question is valid, and interesting. And it would be relevant if only there was a decent sample size to assess.

Now, you're trying to pull a fast one and change the question.

Coach, what do you say to that?

 

 

I agree.

 

[AHF]

Using a measure of 2.25 WS/year as a cutoff for rookie contract, 3 WS for year 5; 4 WS/year thereafter, here are the players and their fates:

2015 Draft (12 WS cutoff)

KAT - Resigned long-term deal

Trez - Resigned one year deal 

Myles Turner - Resigned LTA

WCS - Let walk; signed $2.2M/year deal

Larry Nance Jr - Resigned LTA

Josh Richardson - Resigned LTA

Richaun Holmes - Let walk; signed <$5M/year

Kristaps Porziņģis - Resigned LTA

Devin Booker - Resigned LTA

Delon Wright - Resigned LTA

Terry Rozier - Sign and trade LTA; $18.9M/year

Frank Kaminsky - let walk; signed 2 years, $4.9M/year

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - let walk; signed 1.5M/year

Kelly Oubre Jr. - Resigned LTA

 

2014 Draft (15 WS cutoff)

Nikola Jokić - Resigned LTA

Clint Capela - Resigned LTA

Dwight Powell - Resigned LTA

Joel Embiid - Resigned LTA

Jerami Grant - Resigned LTA

Aaron Gordon - Resigned LTA

Julius Randle - let walk; 1 year, $8.6M

Marcus Smart - Resigned LTA

TJ Warren - Resigned LTA

Gary Harris - Resigned LTA

Kyle Anderson - let walk; 3 year, $9.5M

Rodney Hood - let walk; $2.4M

Jusuf Nurkic - Resigned LTA

Andrew Wiggins - Resigned LTA

 

2013 Draft (19 WS cutoff)

Giannis - Resigned LTA

Gobert - Resigned LTA

Steven Adams - Resigned LTA

Mason Plumlee - Resigned LTA

CJ McCollum - Resigned LTA

Otto Porter - Resigned LTA

Kelly Olynyk - let go; signed 4 year $12.5M/year deal

Cody Zeller - Resigned LTA

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - let walk; signed one year $17.7M deal

Gorgui Dieng - Resigned LTA

Victor Oladipo - Resigned LTA

Nerlens Noel - let walk; signed one year $4.4M deal

Tim Hardaway Jr. - let walk; signed 4 year, $17.75M/year deal

 

2012 Draft (23 WS cutoff)

Anthony Davis - Resigned LTA

Damian Lillard - Resigned LTA

Andre Drummond - Resigned LTA

Draymond Green - Resigned LTA

Bradley Beal - Resigned LTA

Khris Middleton - Resigned LTA

Harrison Barnes - Resigned LTA

Jae Crowder - Resigned LTA

Evan Fournier - Resigned LTA

Jeremy Lamb - Resigned LTA

 

2011 Draft (27 WS cutoff)

Jimmy Butler - Resigned LTA

Kawhi Leonard - Resigned LTA

Kyrie Irving - Resigned LTA

Kemba Walker - Resigned LTA

Jonas Valanciunas - Resigned LTA

Nikola Vucevic - Resigned LTA

Klay Thompson - Resigned LTA

Isaiah Thomas - Resigned LTA

Tobias Harris - Resigned LTA

Enes Kanter - Resigned LTA

Tristan Thompson - Resigned LTA

Kenneth Faried - Resigned LTA

Marcus Morris - Resigned LTA

Reggie Jackson - Resigned LTA

 

2010 Draft (31 WS cutoff)

Paul George - Resigned LTA

Derrick Favors - Resigned LTA

Gordon Hayward - Resigned LTA

Greg Monroe - Resigned one year deal

John Wall - Resigned LTA

DeMarcus Cousins - Resigned LTA

Eric Bledsoe - Resigned LTA

Ed Davis - Let go; signed for less than $1M

 

------------------------------------------

So who among these players are the most comparable to Ingram?

IMO, no one who wasn't resigned is particularly comparable but the only ones remotely comparable are:

Terry Rozier - (sign and trade) for almost $19M per year

&

THJr - let walk for almost $18M per year

 

So past doesn't dictate the future and we have to all acknowledge that Ingram could be the exception to this pattern but it seems that it would be truly exceptional.  I consider Ingram to be significantly better and more attractive piece than either Rozier or THJr.

This reinforces my belief that it is only a truly remote possibility that Ingram is allowed to leave NO.  My $.02:  The Rozier situation does raise the possibility of a S&T as being the most logical path forward.  NO will likely feel confident they can simply trade Ingram in the future if they don't want to keep him and losing him for nothing is sufficiently onerous to avoid any realistic possibility of letting him walk.

Take it or leave it, but we all agree that NO is likely to keep Ingram (including sturt).  I'd say that the RFA status gives team very powerful leverage to retain players like him and that I'd expect them to not be willing to let him walk without getting a payment in return for allowing him to leave.

[Buzzard]

9 minutes ago, AHF said:

Using a measure of 2.25 WS/year as a cutoff for rookie contract, 3 WS for year 5; 4 WS/year thereafter, here are the players and their fates:

2015 Draft (12 WS cutoff)

KAT - Resigned long-term deal

Trez - Resigned one year deal 

Myles Turner - Resigned LTA

WCS - Let walk; signed $2.2M/year deal

Larry Nance Jr - Resigned LTA

Josh Richardson - Resigned LTA

Richaun Holmes - Let walk; signed <$5M/year

Kristaps Porziņģis - Resigned LTA

Devin Booker - Resigned LTA

Delon Wright - Resigned LTA

Terry Rozier - Sign and trade LTA; $18.9M/year

Frank Kaminsky - let walk; signed 2 years, $4.9M/year

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - let walk; signed 1.5M/year

Kelly Oubre Jr. - Resigned LTA

 

2014 Draft (15 WS cutoff)

Nikola Jokić - Resigned LTA

Clint Capela - Resigned LTA

Dwight Powell - Resigned LTA

Joel Embiid - Resigned LTA

Jerami Grant - Resigned LTA

Aaron Gordon - Resigned LTA

Julius Randle - let walk; 1 year, $8.6M

Marcus Smart - Resigned LTA

TJ Warren - Resigned LTA

Gary Harris - Resigned LTA

Kyle Anderson - let walk; 3 year, $9.5M

Rodney Hood - let walk; $2.4M

Jusuf Nurkic - Resigned LTA

Andrew Wiggins - Resigned LTA

 

2013 Draft (19 WS cutoff)

Giannis - Resigned LTA

Gobert - Resigned LTA

Steven Adams - Resigned LTA

Mason Plumlee - Resigned LTA

CJ McCollum - Resigned LTA

Otto Porter - Resigned LTA

Kelly Olynyk - let go; signed 4 year $12.5M/year deal

Cody Zeller - Resigned LTA

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - let walk; signed one year $17.7M deal

Gorgui Dieng - Resigned LTA

Victor Oladipo - Resigned LTA

Nerlens Noel - let walk; signed one year $4.4M deal

Tim Hardaway Jr. - let walk; signed 4 year, $17.75M/year deal

 

2012 Draft (23 WS cutoff)

Anthony Davis - Resigned LTA

Damian Lillard - Resigned LTA

Andre Drummond - Resigned LTA

Draymond Green - Resigned LTA

Bradley Beal - Resigned LTA

Khris Middleton - Resigned LTA

Harrison Barnes - Resigned LTA

Jae Crowder - Resigned LTA

Evan Fournier - Resigned LTA

Jeremy Lamb - Resigned LTA

 

2011 Draft (27 WS cutoff)

Jimmy Butler - Resigned LTA

Kawhi Leonard - Resigned LTA

Kyrie Irving - Resigned LTA

Kemba Walker - Resigned LTA

Jonas Valanciunas - Resigned LTA

Nikola Vucevic - Resigned LTA

Klay Thompson - Resigned LTA

Isaiah Thomas - Resigned LTA

Tobias Harris - Resigned LTA

Enes Kanter - Resigned LTA

Tristan Thompson - Resigned LTA

Kenneth Faried - Resigned LTA

Marcus Morris - Resigned LTA

Reggie Jackson - Resigned LTA

 

2010 Draft (31 WS cutoff)

Paul George - Resigned LTA

Derrick Favors - Resigned LTA

Gordon Hayward - Resigned LTA

Greg Monroe - Resigned one year deal

John Wall - Resigned LTA

DeMarcus Cousins - Resigned LTA

Eric Bledsoe - Resigned LTA

Ed Davis - Let go; signed for less than $1M

 

------------------------------------------

So who among these players are the most comparable to Ingram?

IMO, no one who wasn't resigned is particularly comparable but the only ones remotely comparable are:

Terry Rozier - (sign and trade) for almost $19M per year

&

THJr - let walk for almost $18M per year

 

So past doesn't dictate the future and we have to all acknowledge that Ingram could be the exception to this pattern but it seems that it would be truly exceptional.  I consider Ingram to be significantly better and more attractive piece than either Rozier or THJr.

This reinforces my belief that it is only a truly remote possibility that Ingram is allowed to leave NO.  My $.02:  The Rozier situation does raise the possibility of a S&T as being the most logical path forward.  NO will likely feel confident they can simply trade Ingram in the future if they don't want to keep him and losing him for nothing is sufficiently onerous to avoid any realistic possibility of letting him walk.

Take it or leave it, but we all agree that NO is likely to keep Ingram (including sturt).  I'd say that the RFA status gives team very powerful leverage to retain players like him and that I'd expect them to not be willing to let him walk without getting a payment in return for allowing him to leave.

By the same logic. I do not see anyway we let Collins walk.

[sturt]

8 minutes ago, AHF said:

Take it or leave it, but we all agree that NO is likely to keep Ingram (including sturt).

Right.

The only reason for any deliberation is the difference between a 0-1% chance of him leaving NOP and a 10% chance.

 

10 minutes ago, AHF said:

Ingram could be the exception to this pattern

In my best Lee Corso voice... "What is this 'pattern' you speak of???"

I appreciate the research--thought maybe one of those volunteers might take care of it for you, being so interested in that kind of thing as they are.

But, my friend, as you confess yourself...

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

So who among these players are the most comparable to Ingram?

IMO, no one who wasn't resigned is particularly comparable

... so, you found zero players who fit Ingram's resume' and have been in this situation.

There's no pattern.

If you're going to analyze the mice for outcomes, you have to be testing mice then (not some other rodent), and you have to have them all under the same lab conditions.

There are none. Analyzing the rats is a different thing. Analyzing the mice who had the genetic flaw is a different thing.

 

You folks keep desperately searching for something, it seems, to try to distract or dissuade from what people who are in the know have said about Ingram.

And for what? You're upset that someone actually takes the position that there could be a 10% chance?

Baffles the mind, it really does.

[AHF]

9 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

By the same logic. I do not see anyway we let Collins walk.

Agreed.  I don't think we resign him until next summer but I don't see why we would not resign him.  At all.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, sturt said:

Right.

The only reason for any deliberation is the difference between a 0-1% chance of him leaving NOP and a 10% chance.

 

In my best Lee Corso voice... "What is this 'pattern' you speak of???"

I appreciate the research--thought maybe one of those volunteers might take care of it for you, being so interested in that kind of thing as they are.

But, my friend, as you confess yourself...

... so, you found zero players who fit Ingram's resume' and have been in this situation.

There's no pattern.

If you're going to analyze the mice for outcomes, you have to be testing mice then (not some other rodent), and you have to have them all under the same lab conditions.

There are none. Analyzing the rats is a different thing. Analyzing the mice who had the genetic flaw is a different thing.

 

You folks keep desperately searching for something, it seems, to try to distract or dissuade from what people who are in the know have said about Ingram.

And for what? You're upset that someone actually takes the position that there could be a 10% chance?

Baffles the mind, it really does.

There are lots of comparable players to Ingram.

THEY WERE ALL RESIGNED BY THE TEAM HOLDING THE RFA RIGHTS!!

How is this pattern not clear?

Talk about baffling the mind.  Please read your post again and think about how you processed the names on that list.

 

[sturt]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

THEY WERE ALL RESIGNED BY THE TEAM HOLDING THE RFA RIGHTS!!

Now, AHF. Don't make me pull the car over.  

 

 

  

12 hours ago, AHF said:

has any player who was good enough to make an All-Star team not been resigned by the team that held his RFA rights following the conclusion of their initial rookie deal?

 

There are zero players who were not extended who were All-Stars.

They never made it to becoming RFAs.

 

 

[AHF]

1 minute ago, sturt said:

Now, AHF. Don't make me pull the car over.  

 

There are zero players who were not extended who were All-Stars.

They never made it to becoming RFAs.

 

 

I haven't confirmed your statement particularly since I see it as a distinction without a difference.  The team holding RFA status kept the player in all these cases.  Clear pattern.  Doesn't matter if they do it by extending, matching or making an offer of their own at the end of the rookie contract.

I also compare Ingram to other players at the end of their contract even if they hadn't made an All-Star team.  Lots of guys with more win shares, etc., higher PER/WS48/etc. after 4 years on that list.  All the good ones were retained by the team holding those rights.

Ingram isn't unique here, IMO.  It would take NOP being unique by not being willing to pay a player of his caliber.

[sturt]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

The team holding RFA status kept the player in all these cases. 

*sigh*

Yes.

And NOP didn't do what the others did. That's why he's going to be an RFA, whereas the others weren't.

Did they have legitimate reasons? Sure they did. Teams always do, either way they decide. Ingram will tell you that it's all about his health. Naturally. What, he's going to affirm what others said at the time last year about him being an underachiever? Nonsense.

Here remains the best intel.

 

No one has any better intel. At least, not yet. And it is right that it bugs the livin daylights out of the 0-1%ers... it should. You should, indeed, be looking for other supports for your desired conclusion, if it's that important to you to hold that desired conclusion.

 

 

[sturt]

By the way, I'm still here. Still engaged. Not disrespecting anyone by ignoring them. Not moaning about feeling insulted.

Compliments to all who are with me in that.

But having said that, I do have some work to get done today, so don't take my silence for awhile to be concerning... as-if.... hehe.

[Spud2nique]

(drive by emoji)

[kg01]

2 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

(drive by emoji)

Now's our chance.  stu is "working" while the rest of us are just twiddlin' our thumbs.  Let's hit him with a deluge of words he can't possibly sift through during his lunch break.

On a serious note, I'm in a budding fistfight with a Knick fan about whether or not we'd consider trading down from 4 to 6 to pick up Ntilikina.  I say heyul nawl, he's barely worth a 2nd.  Knick fan thinks the Hawks would jump at the chance.

Am I off base here?  I don't think so.

[AHF]

BTW - The following players were not extended but were resigned after the expiration of their rookie deals.  Not sure where you came up with the notion that none of these players made it to FA.

Gordon Hayward 15.1 WS (compared to 9.2 for Ingram)

Jimmy Butler (All-Star)

Kawhi Leonard (Finals MVP)

 

I'm sure there are plenty more but I am not spending any more time on this.  There are clearly players comparable to Ingram and their teams have retained them in every case.  It is a powerful pattern that bears on the likelihood of Ingram being allowed to walk, IMO.

 

Here is the link from the 2015 FA period where your All-Star and Finals MVP were resigned to a long-term agreement during the FA period after both teams had been unable to agree on extensions to them prior to them reaching RFA.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/13181363/nba-2015-free-agency-tracker

 

I've done the courtesy of posting my specific research.  Please do me the same courtesy if you are making counterclaims.

[Buzzard]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

I haven't confirmed your statement particularly since I see it as a distinction without a difference.  The team holding RFA status kept the player in all these cases.  Clear pattern.  Doesn't matter if they do it by extending, matching or making an offer of their own at the end of the rookie contract.

I also compare Ingram to other players at the end of their contract even if they hadn't made an All-Star team.  Lots of guys with more win shares, etc., higher PER/WS48/etc. after 4 years on that list.  All the good ones were retained by the team holding those rights.

Ingram isn't unique here, IMO.  It would take NOP being unique by not being willing to pay a player of his caliber.

Logic is being ignored. The good players were retained and the ones who did not live up to expectations were allowed to walk. It seems to me that someone is trying to group a all-star in with the underachieving players who walked.

Good luck with that. I do think your post shows clearly the odds of Ingram walking; along with the odds of us letting Collins walk. Even the piss poor ASG had enough sense to retain Horford on his first contract.

The JJ trade does come to mind here; but we sent Diaw ( 21st pick ) and two 1st round picks to get him. Walking for nothing on a 1st contract extension does not happen for better players; much less a 1st time All Star.

[JayBirdHawk]

8 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Now's our chance.  stu is "working" while the rest of us are just twiddlin' our thumbs.  Let's hit him with a deluge of words he can't possibly sift through during his lunch break.

On a serious note, I'm in a budding fistfight with a Knick fan about whether or not we'd consider trading down from 4 to 6 to pick up Ntilikina.  I say heyul nawl, he's barely worth a 2nd.  Knick fan thinks the Hawks would jump at the chance.

Am I off base here?  I don't think so.

I've pretty much told him the same.

[Buzzard]

12 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Now's our chance.  stu is "working" while the rest of us are just twiddlin' our thumbs.  Let's hit him with a deluge of words he can't possibly sift through during his lunch break.

On a serious note, I'm in a budding fistfight with a Knick fan about whether or not we'd consider trading down from 4 to 6 to pick up Ntilikina.  I say heyul nawl, he's barely worth a 2nd.  Knick fan thinks the Hawks would jump at the chance.

Am I off base here?  I don't think so.

I don't think we would. Knicks want their PG and having the 4th pick would all but guarantee they get one of the top two. I like the idea of moving off of Ball, if that is the scenario, and getting at least a future 1st for more ammo. But Ntilikina ain't all that.

Edited April 27, 2020 by Buzzard

[sturt]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

BTW - The following players were not extended but were resigned after the expiration of their rookie deals.

Gordon Hayward 15.1 WS (compared to 9.2 for Ingram)

Jimmy Butler

Kawhi Leonard

 

I'm sure there are plenty more but I am not spending any more time on this.

 

Granted, a few of the same people really want you to be right on this one.

But this is what you said before you decided it didn't work for your conclusion, so you decided to measure win shares instead... and find a way to include guys who would eventually be selected to be All-Star Game participants.

 

That would be a valid analysis to consider if there was enough of a sample. I acknowledged that.

But what actual NBA execs think about this specific situation matters, even if you had a sample size enough to analyze.

Keep running away from it. That's what I would do.

Well, no, actually, it isn't what I would do.

I would concede the point and be done with it. In fact, I just did that in a discussion having to-do with the NFL draft on a Cowboys board I frequent.

 

Okay... bein honest this time... the playroom is all yours, folks.

 

[sturt]

6 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

Logic is

  

17 minutes ago, sturt said:

By the way, I'm still here. Still engaged. Not disrespecting anyone by ignoring them. Not moaning about feeling insulted.

Compliments to all who are with me in that.

But having said that, I do have some work to get done today, so don't take my silence for awhile to be concerning... as-if.... hehe.

 

[AHF]

26 minutes ago, sturt said:

 

Granted, a few of the same people really want you to be right on this one.

But this is what you said before you decided it didn't work for your conclusion, so you decided to measure win shares instead... and find a way to include guys who would eventually be selected to be All-Star Game participants.

 

That would be a valid analysis to consider if there was enough of a sample. I acknowledged that.

But what actual NBA execs think about this specific situation matters, even if you had a sample size enough to analyze.

Keep running away from it. That's what I would do.

Well, no, actually, it isn't what I would do.

I would concede the point and be done with it. In fact, I just did that in a discussion having to-do with the NFL draft on a Cowboys board I frequent.

 

Okay... bein honest this time... the playroom is all yours, folks.

 

Why are you pretending like Jimmy Butler wasn't an All-Star?  Same exact situation as Ingram.  Both became All-Stars in their 4th year.  You are absolutely the one spreading misinformation to cover your statements here.

I haven't even bothered to look beyond 3 names so far and already found an All-Star, a finals MVP and another who had much better metrics than Ingram.  I'm not fixated on the ASG appearance (having expanded the conversation well beyond since I made that post) but since you seem to be then you should at least acknowledge that you aren't even correct on that.

Again, Jimmy Butler.  All-Star on his rookie contract.  Not signed until he became a RFA after his rookie contract expired.  Exact situation you are claiming doesn't exist.

 

(BTW - I'm not biting on your insults in the above accusing me of reshaping my argument to fit around a conclusion I want to reach in bad faith.  I'm open to us signing Ingram and would surely like us to have the opportunity to make that decision rather than NO taking that decision out of our hands.  Stop with the narrative about you being the only one willing to face the facts and everyone else driving in bad faith towards predetermined conclusions in spite of the evidence.)

 

[sturt]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

Why are you pretending like Jimmy Butler wasn't an All-Star?  Same exact situation as Ingram.  Both became All-Stars in their 4th year.  You are absolutely the one spreading misinformation to cover your statements here.

 

You mean this statement?

  

2 hours ago, sturt said:

That would be a valid analysis to consider if there was enough of a sample. I acknowledged that.

But what actual NBA execs think about this specific situation matters, even if you had a sample size enough to analyze.

Keep running away from it. That's what I would do.

Well, no, actually, it isn't what I would do.

I would concede the point and be done with it. In fact, I just did that in a discussion having to-do with the NFL draft on a Cowboys board I frequent.

Nope. Still stand by it.

All of that.

 

But let's even do a deeper dive on your friend and mine, Jimmy Butler III.

Butler? Offered an extension. Turned it down. Bet on himself.

Ingram? As you know, Ingram wasn't even offered an extension to turn down and bet on himself.

 

And that might be one hint at why there are mixed beliefs among independent third party NBA executives.

If there was that much concern about him before, it's not stupid to think, after the truth serum was injected, there would still be some admitted concern.

You know what we can agree that Jimmy Butler's case probably establishes though?

That is, it will take NOP doing what CHI did, and in fact putting actions to words... they can max him in years and money, and in doing that, they will avoid any offers coming forward at all.

Doesn't sound like the independent third parties are persuaded that is gonna happen, seemingly for some diversity of reasons.

 

But I'm the bad guy, of course for agreeing that there is even legitimate reason to doubt. Right? Well, let's qualify that... I'm the bad guy to the 3-4 people who are ad. a. mant. that it's not legitimate to doubt.

And/but I'm okay with that.

(Aside: Someday Jay will like me again. I just know it doggone it.... Spud? Spud likes everyone all the time. He's not foolin anyone... then there's you, and I'm not even sure that you're arguing for the 0-1% thing so much as you're wanting to come to their rescue with some modicum of rationale to allow for some integrity to their position. I say that b/c, in the past, you've seemed much more reserved about it, and arguably dropped a hint or two iirc that you too would lean more toward the 10% than the 0-1%.)