Consensus #2 pick

[AHF]

55 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

 

 

You have no argument from me on this although the future could show a different story. 

 

Maybe when JC is as old as Brandon Clarke he will have regressed to the point where their offense is equal.

[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

Maybe when JC is as old as Brandon Clarke he will have regressed to the point where their offense is equal.

Clarke still shows a lot of upside. As I've said on realgm, we should stop the age thing. It's all about maturation process. 

For Toppin: His maturation process at this stage is more in line with a 19-20-year-old than a 22-year-old. He's only been this tall for a year. He's grown every year since his Junior year of HS where he was 6'2 180. This is why you can't judge an older prospect like Siakam the same way you can judge one like Tyler Hansbrough. Experience, Basketball maturity and feel for the game varies with different players.

 

As for Clarke, he too had a late growth spurt didn't start coming into his own till he got older. Add to that fact, Clarke is a movement specialist who's has to learn a new position (SF). His process might not be near his ceiling for several years. So Clarke is more like a 20 year old plus he gets the DMC benefit of moving to SF as a movement specialist. This takes more time than just moving from PF to SF like Hunter did which that takes time as well. 

So while I am not saying Clarke in three years will be as good on offense as John, I am saying, we aren't at his ceiling yet. We are at least three years away from being close. 

Edited May 23, 2020 by NBASupes

[AHF]

We haven’t seen anything suggesting we are at JC’s ceiling yet either.

(I agree with development and late growth spurts as well but I don’t think that applies as much to Clarke.  He was 6’8’’ back in 2015.  Same height as today.  His development and height adjustment took place over his 5 years in college.)

[NBASupes]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

We haven’t seen anything suggesting we are at JC’s ceiling yet either.

(I agree with development and late growth spurts as well but I don’t think that applies as much to Clarke.  He was 6’8’’ back in 2015.  Same height as today.  His development and height adjustment took place over his 5 years in college.)

Explain? I think we have. 

Where has he made substantial growth at outside of shooting based on college? He still does everything he did in college finishing wise. His growth from last year to this year as been minimal for the most part. Most of his growth of late has been on the defensive end, defending the paint. 

Clarke was 6'8 going into college, correct. At age 16 the 6’2” Clarke dunked for the first time. He then grew five inches in less than two years to reach his current height. He was also 175. 

John Collins has been this height since he was 14 year of high school. He's been 230 since he was a HS junior. That's fine, so was Chris Webber and Amar'e Stoudemire were early bloomers. Not everyone is Russell Westbrook and Michael Jordan much less David Robinson. Some of these guys been tall for a very long time and are fully used to their bodies. 

John can still improve as can everyone but does he have that insane grow level within him like Siakam has, we know he doesn't while Clarke just continues to massively improve at this rate. 

[AHF]

I don’t presume any player is done developing at 22.  The addition of a high % 3 is a huge development.  He more than doubled his 3pt shot rate and shot more than 40% on it.  I doubt 40+ is sustainable but that is impressive.

[NBASupes]

15 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don’t presume any player is done developing at 22.  The addition of a high % 3 is a huge development.  He more than doubled his 3pt shot rate and shot more than 40% on it.  I doubt 40+ is sustainable but that is impressive.

I don't presume any player is done developing at 28 either but there is a massive gap between minimal jumps and massive jumps like Giannis and Siakam have made to a degree. Hell, look at Korver, he's grown more after 28 than before when he was just making minor jumps. After 28, he makes notable jumps. 

 

I agree with you, Collins unlocking his shooting range on good volume for a 4 is no small note. One of the biggest reasons a 6.5/7.5 prospect is now a 8.5 player in year 3. That said, let's be honest. John made a jump from 6.5 to 7 by the end of his rookie season. Nice but usual progress. At least he is making progress. We remember the Acie Law, Sheldon who didn't improve AT ALL. 

Year 2, he makes a substantial jump. He gets .5 for Trae's arrival (fit) and is now a 7.5/8 prospect. Ends the season, he progresses to a 8 and our best player on the squad. Would you agree? 

Year 3, he makes a minor jump as teams adjust to him and has a good scout of what he does and is as a pro. He does show substantial growth for a 2nd straight year as a shooter and he shows a lot of growth on defense as a post defender since Dedmon is gone but Dedmon returns and his defensive impact instantly goes back down. He's arrived a 8/8.

Add the minor improvements with experience + shooting (++) and + defensive improvements as a paint defender (Post, blocks, feel for defending around the paint, etc), he improved to a 8.5/8.5. To get to a 9 would require him would require him to become an elite shooter with good volume for his position + become a GOOD paint defender for any player + plus the usual minor improvements. 

I have trouble seeing that he could make this jump. I honestly think he has reached his ceiling. Maybe I am wrong but the next jump is extremely difficult and he doesn't really show the signs of getting it either. I think he is what he is. 

 

What do you think? 

Edited May 23, 2020 by NBASupes

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, marco102 said:

Just shouldn't let his contract talks cloud your judgment on how good he is as a 22 year old. 

 I said as much 2 weeks as go.

[marco102]

20 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I don't presume any player is done developing at 28 either but there is a massive gap between minimal jumps and massive jumps like Giannis and Siakam have made to a degree. Hell, look at Korver, he's grown more after 28 than before when he was just making minor jumps. After 28, he makes notable jumps. 

 

I agree with you, Collins unlocking his shooting range on good volume for a 4 is no small note. One of the biggest reasons a 6.5/7.5 prospect is now a 8.5 player in year 3. That said, let's be honest. John made a jump from 6.5 to 7 by the end of his rookie season. Nice but usual progress. At least he is making progress. We remember the Acie Law, Sheldon who didn't improve AT ALL. 

Year 2, he makes a substantial jump. He gets .5 for Trae's arrival (fit) and is now a 7.5/8 prospect. Ends the season, he progresses to a 8 and our best player on the squad. Would you agree? 

Year 3, he makes a minor jump as teams adjust to him and has a good scout of what he does and is as a pro. He does show substantial growth for a 2nd straight year as a shooter and he shows a lot of growth on defense as a post defender since Dedmon is gone but Dedmon returns and his defensive impact instantly goes back down. He's arrived a 8/8.

Add the minor improvements with experience + shooting (++) and + defensive improvements as a paint defender (Post, blocks, feel for defending around the paint, etc), he improved to a 8.5/8.5. To get to a 9 would require him would require him to become an elite shooter with good volume for his position + become a GOOD paint defender for any player + plus the usual minor improvements. 

I have trouble seeing that he could make this jump. I honestly think he has reached his ceiling. Maybe I am wrong but the next jump is extremely difficult and he doesn't really show the signs of getting it either. I think he is what he is. 

 

What do you think? 

If John can improve his handle and passing that will make him nearly unstoppable.  That's a big if,  though, as far as his handle, but coming out of college I didn't believe he'd be a good three point shooter and he's improved tremendously there.  I do believe he'll become a better passer.

He's made improvements every year and by all accounts is a very hard worker.  If he continues that, I won't put a limit on how good he can be.  He'll never be Siakiam on the defensive side of the ball, but he sure as hell may match him offensively, in a different way of course.  What makes John so good for the Hawks is he doesn't need to dominate the ball to be impact the game.  With having Trae and hopefully Cam turning into those guys that will take most of the shoots, John's efficiency in what he does should not be minimized.  

[NBASupes]

23 minutes ago, marco102 said:

If John can improve his handle and passing that will make him nearly unstoppable.  That's a big if,  though, as far as his handle, but coming out of college I didn't believe he'd be a good three point shooter and he's improved tremendously there.  I do believe he'll become a better passer.

He's made improvements every year and by all accounts is a very hard worker.  If he continues that, I won't put a limit on how good he can be.  He'll never be Siakiam on the defensive side of the ball, but he sure as hell may match him offensively, in a different way of course.  What makes John so good for the Hawks is he doesn't need to dominate the ball to be impact the game.  With having Trae and hopefully Cam turning into those guys that will take most of the shoots, John's efficiency in what he does should not be minimized.  

I was one of those who did think he has potential to be a three point shooter based on the DX tape I saw of him working out on it. I didn't think he would get this good, this fast but than again, a lot of his shots are wide open but still, it's a massive jump considering he showed no signs of even having a good midrange jumper out of college. John always has great hands and a natural touch which is needed to become a good shooter or better. 

John don't really have the handles much less first step to be a faceup guy in the NBA. He also doesn't have the same strength on offense that he has on defense. It's strange, he's the opposite of Amar'e and Obi. He doesn't the passing, feels for passing, vision, or passing IQ to be more than what he is right now. 

He was at the stage where he can still make some substantial jumps. You can be an extremely hard worker but everyone has a ceiling. Look at Kyle Kuzma. 

 

 

Rookie year his own words

 

Edited May 23, 2020 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, kg01 said:

You're being unfair.  All he saying is there should be some hesitation in suggesting any rookie will come in and need no acclimation period.  You're basically saying Toppin will come in and out-perform Collins as if he's just a world-beater.  Chances are he'll need some time to adjust.

And, of course, if he does need time you'll just say "oh he was in a bad situation".  

he is a world beater on offense. That's exactly what I am saying

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, marco102 said:

You seemed to have avoided my question about who was better between John Collins or Marvin Bagley III, because you were projecting Bagley to be this amazing player.  Mind you he very well could be. My overall point is yes some players may seem NBA ready, but they are not going to come in and be as good as John on the offensive side of the ball as far as efficiency, scoring and rebounding.  

It seems as if you're virtually guaranteeing Toppin will do that when there's no way to know.  I mean I understand you strongly believe in your data and film.  I just feel you really short change John overall because of your fear of his contract.  If he agrees to 4 years $80 million over the off season, I believe you'll do a complete 180 on John.

Just shouldn't let his contract talks cloud your judgment on how good he is as a 22 year old. 

I also have watched plenty of Obi and think he'll be a really solid player.  Thinking he'll have a Dame, or Donovan Mitchell effect will be misleading.  They are ball dominant  guards and had the ball a ton to put up their stats.  A power forward won't have that opportunity as much.  Zion is a different beast all together.  He's about 100 pounds bigger than Toppin and most likely much stronger which allows him to bully the smaller players and out athletic the bigs.  Toppin won't have that same type of mismatch when he comes to the NBA.  Defensively there will be someone who can match up with him much more easily.

 

I never avoided nothing you asked. You asked about Bagley, I literally told you, the last time they played against each other in Team USA camp, Bagley was the superior player. He's been hurt the entire season. What else is there to say? 

Toppin's tape is speaking for him more than I am. He's an 8.5 offensively on tape. That's what I've seen. That's not me virtually guaranteeing anything other than what I see see on tape. You are damn right, I strongly believe in on my data and film. 

I am not short changing John and yes, John's contract demands will always have a negative taste in my mouth. Just like Bazemore's till it happened than I just started to dislike him instead which is worse. John hasn't gotten to that point yet. If he signs a 4/80 deal, I would be happy as shit but my opinion wouldn't change on John. 

It would be misleading because he's better than both out of the box as an offensive player and PF is the easiest position to convert offensively in the NBA as a rookie but is the toughest defensively in the NBA. It wouldn't be misleading for any of the reasons you stated. All you have to do is research PF's and you will see offensively, they converted extremely fast on the offensive end from college. 

Unless Zion is 330, there is no way he's 100 pounds bigger than Toppin. 

Ain't no one guarding Toppin 1v1 in the NBA. He's too quick, too explosive off the first jump, and powers into baskets with ease using his feel for scoring. If anything, it would get easier for him to score in the NBA. 

Edited May 23, 2020 by NBASupes

[kg01]

9 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

he is a world beater on offense. That's exactly what I am saying

I think many of us are simply rejecting your definitive tone.  We've seen Collins put up 20/10, which is an uncommon feat, but you're telling us Toppin will exceed that.

And you're saying this not based off what you've seen (because he hasn't played a minute in the league yet), but based off your superior analysis.

Can't you see how that can be construed as dismissive of Collins?

[NBASupes]

8 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I think many of us are simply rejecting your definitive tone.  We've seen Collins put up 20/10, which is an uncommon feat, but you're telling us Toppin will exceed that.

And you're saying this not based off what you've seen (because he hasn't played a minute in the league yet), but based off your superior analysis.

Can't you see how that can be construed as dismissive of Collins?

I've never said he would match Collins overall production. I just said he a better offensive talent right now who has a lot more offensive potential than Collins. 

I could have said Michael Jordan was a better offensive player at UNC as a junior than Orlando Woolridge at that time who was putting up all star like numbers in the NBA. You would call me an idiot for it right because I would just be going by my "superior analysis" correct? But the question is, am I right? 

This is all based off of what I've seen dude, why do you keep doing this? 

Edited May 23, 2020 by NBASupes

[Spud2nique]

13 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Ain't no one guarding Toppin 1v1 in the NBA.

Supes, even when I listen to SLAM by Onyx and think about nobody being able to check Toppin... I don’t see it happening.

You are overrating the hell out of a player who seems like a solid starter at best. You are basing way too much off his highlights.

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, Spud2nique said:

Supes, even when I listen to SLAM by Onyx and think about nobody being able to check Toppin... I don’t see it happening.

You are overrating the hell out of a player who seems like a solid starter at best. You are basing way too much off his highlights.

This post is extremely disrespectful to me. That's all I will say. I'll rather disagree with me like marco than say the shit you just said. 

Edited May 23, 2020 by NBASupes

[Spud2nique]

4 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

This post is extremely disrespectful to me. That's all I will say. I'll rather disagree with me like marco than say the shit you just said. 

Supes I usually ride with many of your assessments but all I’m saying is that I think you may be overhyping a prospect that has played 0 minutes in the NBA and stacking him up against our guy Collins, who has shown 20/10 IN THE LEAGUE ALREADY. If anything that’s disrespectful to JC.

 

In any event, I respect your opinion, your research and all of the time you put into all this as you are one of the most passionate fans I’ve ever known. I probably tend to agree with you about 80% of the time. There will be those other 20% where we may not see eye 👁 to eye 👁 but I wasn’t trying to disrespect you.

I do realize your more than just about the highlights if that’s the elephant in the room here. I guess I was just irked at the Collins comparison and was passive aggressive with that statement. 

[kg01]

21 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I've never said he would match Collins overall production. I just said he a better offensive talent right now who has a lot more offensive potential than Collins. 

I could have said Michael Jordan was a better offensive player at UNC as a junior than Orlando Woolridge at that time who was putting up all star like numbers in the NBA. You would call me an idiot for it right because I would just be going by my "superior analysis" correct? But the question is, am I right? 

This is all based off of what I've seen dude, why do you keep doing this? 

Just trying to bridge the gap.

If all you're saying is you think he's a better offensive prospect, then fine.  I don't see any issue with you saying that.

We can either agree or disagree.  But, just because folks disagree, it doesn't mean they question your analysis.  They simply have a different opinion.

[NBASupes]

Just now, Spud2nique said:

Supes I......

Never belittle my work to f***ing highlight watching. I'll rather you say you disagree but when you belittle my work, I have a tendency to cut you out of my circle. I don't mind people disagreeing with me. Never have, never will but I won't tolerate disrespect ever. 

[JayBirdHawk]

12 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Supes, even when I listen to SLAM by Onyx and think about nobody being able to check Toppin... I don’t see it happening.

You are overrating the hell out of a player who seems like a solid starter at best. You are basing way too much off his highlights.

Especially when you consider the conference and teams he's played against.

[marco102]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

Just trying to bridge the gap.

If all you're saying is you think he's a better offensive prospect, then fine.  I don't see any issue with you saying that.

We can either agree or disagree.  But, just because folks disagree, it doesn't mean they question your analysis.  They simply have a different opinion.

@NBASupes, if you're saying better offensive prospect. I have no quarrell here.