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2020 Atlanta Dream and WNBA Previews


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Finally, I get to watch Dream as they won their second game of the season.  We have NBA fans who will have some really, really exciting lawn this summer.  They have said that watching their grass grow is more exciting than watching WNBA games.

Carter is indeed the Dream's answer to Trae of the Hawks.  Exciting, at least for me, seeing these gals as they played last night.

:smug:

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A'ight, Betnijah!

Her first name is actually pronounced, "beh-NIGH-juh". But unlike the T in the first syllable, nothing about Betnijah Laney's game has been quiet. As she and the Atlanta Dream prepare to face her most recent team, the Indiana Fever (3:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast in ATL, NBA TV), Laney is the early clubhouse leader for the WNBA's Most Improved Player award.

Laney's mother was a star for the legendary Cheney State program, the HBCU that reached the inaugural Women's National Championship game back in 1982. The great C. Vivian Stringer  coached Yolanda Laney then, as she would Yolanda's daughter three decades later at her D-1 powerhouse of Rutgers.

Betnijah scrapped her way onto a WNBA roster with the Chicago Sky as a second-round pick in 2015, and was coming along slowly both here and overseas in Australia, until an ACL tear derailed her progress and sidelined her for over a year. The Delaware native returned to WNBA action in 2018 with Curt Miller and then-assistant Nicki Collen in Connecticut, re-establishing herself as a defense-oriented wing. Then, she reunited with former Sky coach Pokey Chatman at Indiana, earning a career high of 27 starts last season with the Fever.

But through that time, her offense was wayward (38.8 2FG%, 30.3 3FG%, 1.7 APG, 1.4 TOs/game w/ IND). Her shooting peaked with low usage the season before with Connecticut, and Dream head coach Collen found that enough to grant the free agent a flyer as she needed to scramble to replace the losses of Tiffany Hayes and Renee Montgomery.

Collen tried to warn everyone what was coming, as she described the most standout performer in practice and in scrimmages. "She plays with a ton of energy," said Coach Nicki last week, "and right now she’s making her pull-up jump shots." That has carried over in both of Atlanta's victories so far on the young season.

19 points on 6-for-14 shooting (2-for-4 3FGs) to lead the way to the win over Dallas, and 30 points (2-for2 on threes) plus 8 rebounds, including the game-clinching putback off a blocked shot of Monqiue Billings, to fend off the suddenly-shorthanded Liberty on Friday night.

Laney remains turnover-prone (3.7 TOs/game, incl. 6 vs. DAL). But with so many would-be contributors slow to join the rotation, she's been the release valve, and the stopgap (2.0 SPG, incl. 3 vs. NYL), that takes so much pressure off of rookie Chennedy Carter. They'll face an Indiana squad (1-2) that has an imposing center in Teaira McCowan, who their newest coach Marianne Stanley won't be able to resist starting if Natalie Achonwa is a no-go due to injury.

To counter the Mitchells, including Kelsey (52.9 3FG%, team-high 17.0 PPG) and Tiffany, the Dream will need the perimeter jumpers to fall. When Carter and Shekinna Stricklen find themselves bottled up, Laney may once again be their best bet.

 

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

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Who's going to slow down the Fantastic Four?

On the Phoenix Mercury, Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith need no introduction. But now there's a surprise alloy on the Mercury that few saw coming. The second-leading scorer in the WNBA, coming into today's affair between the Merc and the Atlanta Dream (7 PM Eastern, ESPN2), is none of the Big Three, but Bria Hartley.

A 2014 first-round pick out of UConn, Hartley had some promise but was mostly going through the motions in her first six seasons in The W, first with the Mystics and then for three years in her home metro of New York with the Liberty. The guard was basically inert on offense (38.1 career FG% coming into 2020), not much of a threat unless she was drawing trips to the free throw line.

We don't know if it was during Bria's most recent run with Turkish powerhouse Fenerbahçe where things started to click. But lately, Miss Hartley can hardly miss.

Following up on an inauspicious start in the season-opener versus Los Angeles, Bria established her career-high in scoring with 26 points (9-for-15 FGs), plus five assists and a pair of steals, in the Mercury's loss to Indiana on July 31. That career mark would stand for four calendar days. 27 points (10-for-18 FGs) in a win over the sadly shorthanded Liberty on Sunday raised not only her scoring average to 19.8 PPG, but quite a few eyebrows, in ways similar to the NBA's T.J. Warren just up I-75 and I-4.

Filling the gap left behind by 2019 Most Improved Player Leilani Mitchell, Hartley's surge has lifted the Mercury (2-2) off the mat while cooling coach Sandy Brondello's seat for at least the moment. While the sixth-woman is providing plenty of punch off the bench, behind the scrappy Sophie Cunningham, Brondello can now consider forging a high-octane three-guard lineup for Phoenix (NBA-high 93.5 team PPG), with Bria alongside Sky and Di.

Griner (16.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.8 BPG) has yet to truly sink her teeth into opposing offenses, or to dominate with inside-out offensive play the way she did while flirting with MVP honors in 2019. Diggins-Smith (9-for-11 FGs vs. LVA; 2-for-10 FGs "@" NYL) has been on-and-off in the early going, too. If those cylinders start firing, it will be hard for the Dream (91.5 opponent PPG) to keep up in this drag race.

The one good thing about ranking 11th out of 12 teams in opponent scoring for Atlanta (2-2), is that Phoenix is currently holding down the 12-spot (WNBA-worst 91.8 opponent PPG). The neophytic Dream are allowing shooters to roam under-contested (league-worsts of 39.5 3FG%; 51.5 FG% allowed "@" IND), and rebounders to grant teammates lots of second-chances. Meanwhile, the Merc are playing hack-a-baller rather than finessing their way to true stops (WNBA-worst 24.5 personals per game), allowing fast-paced foes that shoot well from the line -- like, oddly enough, Atlanta (81.6 team FT%, 4th in WNBA) -- to stay within striking range.

Courtney Williams carried the water for the Dream offensively with 18 points in Sunday's 93-77 loss to the Fever, her second game back from COVID-related absence. I feel a little better about Courtney going forward now that we've heard, even if it was just briefly, from her famous WNBA superfan father.

"Yep she is her daddy child," said Don Williams on Twitter, reply-Tweeting this morning to the Dream daring followers to "name a duo cooler than," Courtney and Chennedy Carter, and they didn't mean from the field (16-for-27 on twos against IND). Charlton County, where the Williams family resides near Jacksonville, has been an epicenter for COVID-19 outbreaks in South Georgia, leaving me to hope that if she has family fighting the pandemic, that they are recovering swiftly and well.

C-Will is likely to soon take a spot in the Atlanta starting five alongside Chennedy, likely turning Betnijah Laney into a Hartley-style sixth-woman supernova, since the need for sustainable three-point markspersonship would keep Shekinna Stricklen along the top line. When that happens, it will be fun to see how well those guards share the ball, and how Williams' pound-for-pound rebounding prowess makes it simpler for the Dream to keep opponents one-and-done while sparking transition for their prized rookie.

Atlanta has prevailed so far when Monique Billings has been monstrous around the boards (10.8 RPG, 3rd in WNBA). But her offense has waned since her sterling 30-point season debut. Carter and the Dream guards must grant Billings better opportunities to finish around the rim instead of settling for tough jumpers and drives into congested lanes. The more that Dream coach Nicki Collen can design offenses that draw defensive bigs, not just Griner but players like the Merc's emerging Alanna Smith, out of the paint and defending from behind, the better Atlanta can compete over 40 minutes of play.

Phoenix can't afford many slip-ups, especially against teams like the Dream in this shortened regular season. But with some tweaks to their approaches at both ends of the floor, Atlanta has the potential to make tonight's Wubble run a competitive, high-scoring affair. While the Dream leans on an assertive rookie and an unheralded veteran (Laney) for nightly heroics, can Hartley once again make the Mercury's Fantastic Four... the Thing?

 

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

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Imagine: your favorite basketball team just won a league championship. It was led by a player who, merely two seasons after being named Rookie of the Year, earns both league MVP and Finals MVP honors. You’re all set to bring the squad back for a repeat. But first… that superstar player must leave North America, to spend an offseason in Russia.

It’s there, while guiding a Russian Premier League club to a Euroleague championship game, that the franchise player tears an Achilles, thereby derailing your stateside team’s hopes for a title defense.

Such is the peril that lurks for the WNBA and its stars in every offseason, where the need to make ends meet and keep skills sharp year-round requires quite a bit of globe-trotting, and a dash of injury luck.

The league tried to offset the sunk salary by paying 2018 MVP Breanna Stewart as a “league ambassador” in 2019, while Dan Hughes coached her Seattle Storm to a respectable 18-16 finish and a second-round WNBA appearance. The players’ union fought for meager improvements in revenue share that will have its most esteemed players making closer to $200k than $100k over the next half-decade, perhaps keeping a few American-born stars in The States more frequently during the downtimes.

But the Storm understood that any addition to its banner tally relies on Stewie making it back healthy and prepared to dominate at the season’s start. They’ve got that, and Sue Bird, for the abbreviated 2020 campaign that has begun quite nicely for Seattle. They aim to stretch their record to 5-1 with a win this evening against the upstart Atlanta Dream (6 PM Eastern, ESPN2).

The Storm entered the Wubble without Hughes, who has opted out and delegated the coaching reins to the accomplished Gary Kloppenburg. They likely go into this game without Bird (knee bone bruise), who is listed as day-to-day, and fellow veteran guard Epiphanny Prince, who has departed from the Wubble to attend to a personal matter.

Breanna has had a smooth return to WNBA action, averaging nearly 19 points and catching 8 caroms per contest while leading the league with 1.8 blocks per game. She won’t need to vacate the paint much on defense, so long as Jordin Canada can stay in front of Chennedy Carter, whose 26 points kept Atlanta competitive with Phoenix for three quarters on Tuesday night. And with Natasha Howard in the middle and Alysha Clark roving from the wing, Seattle’s confident they can keep Carter bottled up, daring a WNBA vet to beat them instead.

Sabrina Ionesu’s season-ending injury effectively narrows the race for Rookie of the Year to Dallas’ Satou Sabally, Minnesota’s Crystal Dangerfield, Indiana’s Julie Allemand, and Carter, who now leads active rooks with 17.4 PPG while trailing only Allemand with 4.0 APG. But tonight, and in the weeks ahead, Atlanta coach Nicki Collen will need better distribution and less head-down, damn-the-torpedoes drives from her leading scorer.

The Dream (2-3) did much better defending the three-point line against Phoenix (4-for-20 3FGs), holding the Mercury down until Diana Taurasi finally found daylight in the second half of their 81-74 win. But going the other way, Atlanta will need better looks and sharper execution from Courtney Williams (3rd in usage%, one spot behind Carter; 9 rebounds but 1-for-8 FGs off the bench against PHX) and Elizabeth Williams. The latter “led” the way on Tuesday with six of Atlanta’s 23 turnovers (zero assists), and while the high-usage Carter committed five, Courtney and two other Dreammates committed three apiece.

Atlanta is scoring the second-most points off turnovers (20.4, behind Los Angeles’ 20.6), but the Dream also allow the second-most (20.8, behind New York’s 21.4), and that erratic play won’t fly against a disciplined team (13.8 TOs/game, 3rd-fewest in WNBA; 9.6 SPG and 4.4 BPG, 3rd-most) with championship chops like the Storm.

Under Coach Klop’s watch, Seattle doesn’t want to out-run opponents (league-low 79.8 possessions per-40), but they do like to out-gun them (8.4 made threes per game, 3rd in WNBA). Mo Billings and Glory Johnson must vacate the paint to attend to Stewart at the perimeter, and Atlanta’s wings must make Jewell Loyd (6-for-14 3FGs in past two games) become less of a sit-back jumpshooter and put the ball on the floor. Inside, Elizabeth Williams must hold her own versus Howard and limit Seattle’s opportunities for second-chance kickouts.

The Storm’s 31.2 paint points per game are tied for a league-low, but they also make things miserable inside with a league-best 28.0 paint PPG allowed, forcing lots of turnovers (20.3 opponent TO%, 2nd-best in WNBA) while limiting fouls and opponent trips to the charity stripe (22.1% opponent FTA rate, 2nd-lowest in WNBA).

The path is clearing for Atlanta to help Carter’s rookie run in the Wubble become an award-winning one, charting Stewart’s footsteps from back in 2016. After the season ends, Dream fans will just have to hope Chennedy can limit her traveling to the kind you see on WNBA floors.

 

Let’s Go Dream!

~lw3

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After putting a sweet scare into Seattle on Thursday, will Chennedy Carter and the Atlanta Dream's rematch with the Dallas Wings (12 noon Eastern, ESPN2), featuring follow star ball-handler Arike Ogunbowale and fellow rookie sensation Satou Sabally, be an afternoon delight? Stay tuned!

 

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

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Can a top scorer in the Wubble be the first WNBA MVP representing a last-place team? DeWanna Bonner and the Connecticut Sun hope we will never have to find out.

Connecticut's major offseason addition, Bonner (3x WNBA All-Star, 3x WNBA Sixth Woman of the Year) stormed through the first week-and-a-half of the WNBA season as the league's leading scorer, and she continues to lead the way with 19.7 PPG (4th in WNBA) to go along with a top-ten ranking in boards (7.7 RPG, 10th in WNBA, eight spots behind wrecking-ball Alyssa Thomas' 10.4). But the 2019 WNBA Finalists, missing Jonquel Jones (opted out of 2020) and key role players like Atlanta's Courtney Williams and Shekinna Stricklen, have struggled to retain the verve from the outset of this shortened season.

Coach Curt Miller's charges went 0-5 out of the gate, stopping the skid last Thursday with a resounding 91-68 win over the Dallas Wings. The fortunate news for Miller and the Sun (1-6) is, despite Saturday's 100-93 loss to Chicago, on the same day the Atlanta Dream, tonight's opponent (6 PM Eastern, Fox Sports South in ATL, WNBA League Pass), fell to Dallas by an 85-75 score. Atlanta failed to sustain the momentum from Thursday's close-shave loss to top-seeded Seattle, looking lethargic when the times came in the second half to set up reasonable shots and defend in transition.

Chennedy Carter (3-for-11 2FGs, 3 assists, 4 TOs) was hampered not only by the Wings' defense but, as she would reveal after the game, the loss of her grandfather. The cruel nature of this pandemic-laced season is that NBA and WNBA players must make tougher decisions when loved ones pass away or have life emergencies that they would attend to, normally. Hollywood plans to remain in the Wubble, and to dedicate the rest of the season to her grandpa.

"I thought we came out flat. I don't think we came out with a ton of energy. That's probably my fault," offered Dream coach Nicki Collen after the last game. "We can't take days off." Well, technically, there's not a lot of choice, given there is usually one intermittent day between games in the Wubble. "We did full recovery," after the Seattle game, Collen said, "thinking this was a quick turnaround and a noon tip. We probably should've been in the gym."

"We're too young. That's on me."

Not spring chickadees are WNBA vets Glory Johnson and Stricklen. The former continues to round into form off a Dream bench that Collen allowed to only go 8-deep versus the Wings despite the short trunaround (guard Alexis Jones needs to be at least as good an option as Blake Dietrick but has been mostly M.I.A., while center Kalani Brown's rebounding can't enter the mix soon enough.) The latter, Shekinna, shot just 1-for-5 on threes in what was otherwise a fairly balanced offensive attack by Atlanta on Saturday.

With Bonner, former Dream forward Bria Holmes, Brionna Jones and Thomas packing the paint and making drives an adventure for Carter today (to say little of ex-Dream point guard Jasmine Thomas, who had team-highs of 22 points, four 3FGs, and 5 steals, despite 7 TOs versus the Sky), Stricklen needs to hit open shots and remind the Sun (30.8 team 3FG%, next-to-last in WNBA) just what they've been missing.

Atlanta's 67.5 D-Reb% is just a shade of ahead of Dallas among the worst in the league. Despite Elizabeth Williams' six offensive rebounds on Saturday, the Dream pivot was goose-egged at the other end of the floor over the course of 33 minutes. Monique Billings, who will likely have her hands full face-guarding the lithe yet sturdy Bonner for much of the evening, has struggled in many aspects since her sterling season debut (30 points in last six games, total, since her season-opening 30-point game; 11-for-40 FGs since starting out 10-for-14 in Game 1). Mo needs not be on an island to herself in the defensive paint if she is going to fix those other issues soon.

Even without Jonquel, Connecticut (4th in WNBA for team O-Reb% and D-Reb%) has ample resources to attack the glass with impunity. Glory and E-Will controlling the defensive glass will be essential for helping blot out the Sun's ability to deny Carter and C-Will the possessions they'll need over 40 minutes of play to keep Atlanta competitive.

The last shall be first? For Atlanta, that may finally hold true, whenever the next WNBA Draft Lottery comes around. Connecticut can't have the same fortune, given the successes they had in 2019 calculate into their Lottery odds for 2021 (the Dream know all about how that works). For the Sun, if the losing stretches on for much longer in the Wubble, they have to hope that "last shall be first" adage will apply to their MVP candidate, Bonner.

 

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

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U-G-L-Y, we ain't got no alibis! Or, do we?

No Chennedy Carter, not for a long while. Oh, and no TV tonight either. If you can stomach it, you can watch the Atlanta Dream get hashtagged to smithereens on Twitter as they try their darndest to keep up with the Seattle Storm (10 PM Eastern, versus Sue Bird on The Blue Bird).

Sure, you'll recall, we gave the Storm (WNBA-best 7-1, winners of five straight) a heckuva scare less than a week ago, but a lot of it involved a flurry frosting of fortuitous late buckets that made the final score much sweeter than when the game truly hung in the balance many minutes before. It was a similar deal on Monday versus the dominating DeWanna Bonner and Connecticut, as the Dream (2-6) shook out of its reverie during the final frame just enough to shave a 20-plus-point deficit down to 11 by the final horn.

Further, many of those final scores versus Seattle came 'Chourtesy' of Chennedy, the rookie star who will likely miss all but maybe the final handful of games in the Wubble now that she's nursing an ankle injury (some folks in the Twitterverse wish to be upset that Carter hasn't received the "same" amount of sorrowful energy the popular #1 pick in the Draft got when she went down, but this is Atlanta Sports, we know the deal by now).

Once Carter was lost, coach Nicki Collen literally threw a pair of kitchen sinks at Connecticut in hopes of an offensive spark -- Shekinna Stricklen hit six threes! Kalani Brown lives! -- but there was no organized communication pertaining to boxing out (Elizabeth Williams is back on her rebounding diet) and transition defense, leading to ample easy buckets for the Sun. Stricklen hit all those first-half threes, but the need to keep her on the floor left her at a minus-22 on the evening. Her offensive counterpart, the wiry Miss Inside, Courtney Williams, suffered a similar fate at minus-24 despite a team-high seven rebounds that should be nowhere near this team's singular high.

The team-leading rebounder on the season, Monique Billings never reached the lofty heights of The Titanic, but the bigger concern is that her step-slow reaction time on the court is like a Lose-itania right now. We will have to see how long Coach Nicki elects to go down with the ship of Billings as a starter. Glory Johnson and now Brown are needed to step up more than ever, particularly given Seattle won't let up so long as Breanna Stewart (20.1 PPG, 3rd in WNBA) has a say.

One of Monday's few Good Ship Lollipops for Atlanta, once it was too late, was Alexis Jones. She hit shots and wasn't a complete sieve on defense, which should allow Collen the opportunity to perceive Blake Dietrick, very soon, as something akin to The Maine... anybody remember her? Jones and Stricklen must again be ready to catch and fire quickly when the Ladies Williams (Courtney and Elizabeth) need outlets.

Storm guard Jordin Canada (5.1 APG, 5th in WNBA) will hopefully find herself a tad sluggish at the outset after celebrating her 25th birthday Wubble-style yesterday. Nonetheless, need we mention Sue Bird, the soon-to-be quadragenarian, is probable to return tonight, after missing the past five games with a bone bruise? Just wonderful. Life is so fair!

If you dare to engage with the savants on WNBA Twitter, our new team hashtag refrain is #OneCityOneDream (two cities, College Park, I know). With all due respect to our metro's one team, I'm hoping I'll be deep into one dream, by sometime around 9:59 PM tonight. The Storm might leave my downtrodden Dream feeling sleepless, but not I.

 

Let's Go To Slee-- er, Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

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Trust fall! The Phoenix Mercury have been underwhelming so far this season, and Diana Taurasi remains day-to-day while healing up a back injury. But they have been able to rely on the WNBA's bottom-dwellers, so far, to catch them every time. They hope to make tonight's game against the Dream (10 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast) their second-win over Atlanta in the Wubble.

Coach Sandy Brondello's club got blown out by Chicago, 89-71, on Wednesday, with Taurasi (5.9 APG) out and center Brittney Griner putting in a deflating effort (3-for-11 FGs in 30 minutes, after three-straight games of 20+ points). They're only one game behind the Sky in the WNBA standings, at 5-4. But since the calendar turned to August, Phoenix has only beaten one decent team, and that was Chicago eight days ago. The Merc have feasted instead on New York, Dallas and Atlanta, who succumbed by an 81-74 score back on August 4, despite playing strong for three quarters.

The Dream don't have Chennedy Carter (26 points vs. PHX) in tow like they did back then. But Phoenix won't be able to mail the score in tonight (y'all remember mail?) without strong performances from both Griner and Skylar Diggins-Smith. Skylar has been sloppy with the ball lately (4.5 TOs/game and 4.5 APG in last 4 games), particularly in the defeats, and hasn't consistently shot the ball well from outside (6-for-25 3FGs in last six games). Atlanta has to keep Diggins-Smith from making comfortable drives into the lane and from feasting at the foul line, in order to neutralize the Mercury offense enough to keep this game a close contest.

In Wednesday's 100-63 laugher against her prior team, Blake Dietrick played all 40 minutes against Seattle and, as you could calculate yourself, was a minus-37 on the evening. Shekinna Stricklen was bagel-for-4 on threes. Shoved unfairly into a power forward position versus Breanna Stewart by coach Nicki Collen, who made the floundering Monique Billings a sub, Strick and alleged center Elizabeth Williams combined to grab three rebounds of any kind.

If any of those factors change in a positive direction, even without Carter, Atlanta could find itself in a position where they could just let Phoenix flop. The good news for this Phoenix outfit is, they're not so far back that an 8-0 closing run would be too little, too late.

 

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

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Thank you, ma'ams, may we have another?

The Ls keep coming for our poor Atlanta Dream (2-10), and this wobbly Wubble stretch ought to extend to 10 this evening against Derek Fisher's Los Angeles Sparks (7 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast in ATL, Twitter, Spectrum SportsNet in Cali).

While they've suffered through one disorganized and uneven venture after another, Nicki Collen's troops did enjoy a bit of prosperity during a 98-91 defeat against Washington on Tuesday. Courtney Williams and Betnijah Laney became one of the rare WNBA duos to score 30-plus on the same team in a game, Laney's 35 and C-Will's 30 each personal bests.

Unfortunately, no one bothered to scout the Mystics' guard Stella Johnson, a third-round draft pick of Phoenix's (and the NCAA's top scorer last season, out of tiny Rider College) that was cut, then picked up by Washington, waived again and finally retained via a hardship contract. The rookie's team record of six triples (on eight attempts) ended the Mystics' 7-game losing streak while keeping the Dream's skid going.

The league's worst defense (League-high 9,3 opponents 3FGs on 40.1 3FG%; 112.8 D-Rating, no other WNBA squad worse than 110), Atlanta now faces an 8-3 L.A. squad that seeks to win their sixth-straight. A Spark in play from former Dream wing Brittney Sykes and human bucket Riquna Williams has helped ease concerns for D-Fish and taken the load off of stars Nneka Ogwumike and Candace Parker.

Without a solid defensive rebounding effort (32.1 opponent O-Reb%, next-to-worst in WNBA) by bigs Elizabeth Williams and Monique Billings, the latter having returned recently to the starting unit, and without sound closeouts along the perimeter, L.A. will keep coming tonight, and the Ls will keep coming for the Dream through next week.

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

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Is the home-scented atmosphere in the Wubble really working? Five teams have clearly separated from the pack in the WNBA, including the Atlanta Dream's "hosts" today, the Minnesota Lynx (4 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast in ATL, Twitter). Entering today's action, Minnesota (9-3) and the other four teams are separated by a single game at the top of the standings. The "home" records combined from this quintet are 31-2, while their "away" records are combined at a relatively mediocre 18-12.

Unlike the scene in Disneyworld, there aren't even walls of fans cheering on their favorite teams down at the Bradenton arenas. Just faintly familiar logos, ad sponsors, announcements, and music attuned to the whims of the "home" teams' players. Yet it sure seems like the homecourt "advantage" is holding sway even without the rigors of travel and hostile crowds.

Conversely, Atlanta (2-11) and the five lowest-ranked teams are 4-28 in "road" settings, while collectively 13-19 at "home", 13-13 if you exclude the New York team handicapped by the loss of Sabrina Ionescu. The Dream had the L.A. Sparks right where they wanted them, in "their own" house, for 38 minutes on Friday night. Sadly, the late advantage was fumbled away almost as much as the basketball was on 29 occasions (10 TOs by the overwhelmed Courtney Williams), as Atlanta let Candace Parker and the Sparks off the hook in overtime on the way to a tenth consecutive defeat.

C-Will's shift to the point guard role, at the expense of the even-more overwhelmed Blake Dietrick, led to more competitive play from the outset of the game versus L.A.  But coach Nicki Collen's apparent inability to rely on Alexis Jones (DNP'd over the past week; no more than 10 minutes in a game since August 10) compounds the short-handedness Atlanta has suffered since the injury departure of rookie star Chennedy Carter.

Any hopes of Atlanta feeling more at home this afternoon will require keeping Napheesa Collier off the free throw line. 2019's Rookie of the Year, Collier garnered nine of her 20 points off 11 free throw attempts, tacking on season-highs of six assists and four steals to fend off "host" Phoenix 90-80 on Friday. She also has to be contested, without fouling, at the perimeter where she shoots a sterling 45.5 3FG%. Together with former Atlanta forward Damiris Dantas, Minnesota has two bigs that space the floor adequately for future Hall of Famer Sylvia Fowles.

Taken one pick before Atlanta's underutilized Brittany Brewer, many WNBA teams are kicking themselves for looking past the diminutive Crystal Dangerfield. At 5-foot-6, she is wearing out opponents with her quickness on the ball and her quicker trigger, averaging nearly 15 PPG on a shooting split of 47.0/38.6/88.2. In the absence of both Ionescu and Carter, Dangerfield, a second-round pick, he asserted herself as the odds-on favorite for Rookie of the Year honors.

It's safe to assume that Jones, the former Lynx guard now riding the pine for the Dream, has not been missed much by coach Cheryl Reeve. With little else that the Dream need to play for, this would be a great opportunity for Atlanta to give Reeve some reasons to be wistful. But that would require giving Jones meaningful opportunity in her return "home."

 

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

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Breaking news: your Atlanta Dream are shooting the three-ball as well as they have in their entire franchise history!

The downside? The last time the Dream splashed those jumpers even remotely this well. they finished 4-30! They have a shot at matching that win total, as Chennedy Carter is expected to return tonight to face the Washington Mystics (7 PM Eastern, ESPN 2).

The lump-taking inaugural season of 2008 was the only time Atlanta made more than one out of every three three-point attempts, and even that collective barely cleared that low bar at 33.8 3FG%. The Dream have since finished last, or next-to-last in the WNBA in this category during nine of the ensuing 11 seasons.

With 8 games to go down in the Wubble, Atlanta's 35.7 3FG% doesn't make them world-beaters (6th in WNBA), but "not-too-shabby" for the Dream franchise is record-breaking. By itself, it would be an impressive improvement from 2019's league-worst 29.0 3FG%, more so given Renee Montgomery's out of the picture. Now re-enter Carter, who was hitting threes at a 42.1 percent clip before being sidelined due to injury in her eighth professional game, and who will be eager to firm up her status for the season-ending All-Rookie team.

The problem -- well, a problem -- up until now is the Dream's opponents have had even more success (39.1 opponent 3FG%, worst by any WNBA squad since the 2017 Fever), as evidenced by rookie Stella Johnson's 6-for-9 3FG display a week ago, helping her Mystics to a 98-91 win over Atlanta.

When Atlanta closes out on capable shooters, and gains at least parity in the rebounding and turnover battles, good things can happen. That was the case on Sunday afternoon, as the Dream (6-for-15 3FGs themselves, led by Blake Dietrick's 3-for-4 off the bench) held Minnesota to 6-for-25 3FGs and shockingly turned the tables on the Lynx in the second half, snapping their 10-game losing skid with a 78-75 victory.

Coach Nicki Collen's club is betting on better wing play, and the returning Carter resuming the lion's share of ballhandling, to finish out the 2020 campaign stronger. To that end, the Dream have departed with Alexis Jones and brought in free agent swing player Kaela Davis.

A Buford High grad, college star at South Carolina via Georgia Tech, and the daughter of retired NBA hoopster Antonio, Davis was released by Dallas in April following three mostly-unremarkable seasons with the Wings. Her addition will allow Collen to extend the experiment of shifting Courtney Williams (3.8 APG) to the 1-spot when Carter (3.9 APG) rests, as a secondary effect relying less on Dietrick to put the ball on the floor.

Betnijah Laney's run for the Most Improved Player honors is eclipsed, perhaps, only by Washington's Myisha Hines-Allen. The Mystics' forward has led the charge with 16.4 PPG (incl. 42.9 3FG%), 1.5 SPG and 8.4 RPG (WNBA-best 28.4 D-Reb% as per bball-ref), after barely registering a blip in two seasons for coach Mike Thibault's defending champions. Her rise has alleviated Emma Meesseman (48.8 TS%, lowest since her rookie season in 2013; team-high 4.5 APG) from having to do too much in the absences of bigs Elena Delle Donne and Tina Charles and guard Natasha Cloud.

Yet, last Wednesday's victory over Carter-less Atlanta was the only win for the Mystics (4-9) in their past ten games. The losing resumed with defeats on Friday against Dallas, despite Hines-Allen's 35 points, and on Sunday, losing by a point despite shooting 51.9 3FG% as a team, to a Phoenix club that recently had Brittney Griner bailing the Wubble. They were missing Meeseman (questionable, shoulder sprain) and Aerial Powers (out for season, hamstring) due to injury in those recent losses.

The other common denominator in recent defeats was poor perimeter defense, as both the Wings and the Mercury (led by Diana Taurasi's 7-for-13 3FGs) shot over 44 percent from outside. Laney and C-Will combined to go 6-for-11 on threes last Wednesday as each Dream player eclipsed 30 points versus Washington, who may find themselves stretched further trying to cover Carter, too. All else reasonably equal, the team that finds the hot hands and sticks with them throughout will gain the upper hand tonight.

New York's upset win over Chicago on Sunday gave Atlanta (11-37 in past 2 seasons) the slim lead in the 2021 Draft Lottery odds race with the Liberty (12-36). One can assume, however, that it's in Collen's best interest to close out 2020 with competitive finishes, if not outright victories. "We knew it was going to be a process," said the trusty Coach Nicki postgame on Sunday. "We always expected to be our better basketball late. We're getting better because our players are learning each other."

We won't know for sure how the WNBA season closes out for Atlanta. But I can guarantee one thing: the Dream won't lose ten in a row again for a long while.

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

 

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Alrighty, let's try this again! 🙂 (we hear you loud and clear, E-Will!)

Five days after catching an L, the Minnesota Lynx get a quick rematch against the Atlanta Dream tonight (7 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast in ATL, Facebook). This time, though, Atlanta's got Chennedy Carter in tow!

 

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

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One of the many things Chennedy Carter has in common with Trae Young is the need to become a more formidable on-ball defender.

In an abbreviated fashion on Friday night, Carter returned to WNBA action only to watch second-round rookie Crystal Dangerfield steal the show for the Minnesota Lynx. Carter only took three shots from the field in just under 17 minutes of play, but was a minus-25 in her stint on the court, a flurry of fouls and turnovers for Lynx transition baskets helping the deficit balloon.

Dangerfield didn't shoot the rock particularly well, but her ability to get around Carter and pretty much any Dream "guard" enabled her access to the paint and trips to the free throw line (9-for-10 FTs, part of her 23-point evening). The effect was similar for fellow guard Odyssey Sims off the bench. Minnesota committed just 13 turnovers in their 88-79 payback victory, only five of them coming off steals by Atlanta (3-12).

Carter will get a ramp up in floor time over the final games of the season, but a conga line of backcourt challenges await her in the Wubbble, including Chelsea Gray of the Los Angeles Sparks tonight (8 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast in ATL, Spectrum SportsNet in LA, Facebook). Gray led the way with 27 points (7-for-11 FGs, 3-for-5 3FGs, 4-for-5 FTs) to help L.A. (11-3, 1.0 GB top-seeded Seattle) to blot out the Connecticut Sun on Friday. Gray's 4.9 APG ranks fifth in the Wassociation.

Chennedy will improve her footwork and positioning over time, but in the short run, she needs better help from her veterans, notably Courtney Williams, whose 113.3 D-Rating ranks worst among all WNBA'ers averaging over 12 minutes per game.

Defensive Rating is a heavily team-oriented stat, as Williams checked in at 95.1 last season with a solid Connecticut team, while Shekinna Stricklen was a Sun-best 92.9 in 2019 (110.2 D-Rating in 2020, 6th-worst in WNBA w/ min. 12+ MPG, just ahead of Elizabeth Williams' 109.9). But C-Will had a stout Jonquel Jones womanning the pivot last year. E-Will's season-high 8 defensive boards plus 3 blocks versus Minnesota weren't enough to pull the Dream out of last-place for defensive rebounding (67.6 D-Reb%, somehow slightly worse than Seattle's 67.7) and efficiency (110.6 team D-Rating).

Williams will have to be more active in the post with league-leading rebounder Candace Parker today (9.4 RPG). Derek Fisher's club parks out under the defensive glass (WNBA-low 24.7 O-Reb%), banking on one-and-done defensive work, and on Gray and an deep array of backcourt mates taking high-percentage shots when they come available. As the Sun were able to do on Friday, Atlanta can hang in there with L.A. if the swing defenders keep ex-Dreamer Brittney Sykes and the supporting cast cool, and if Carter, while still finding her way on defense, can get hot at the right time.

 

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

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I'm gonna say the quiet part out loud...

The Atlanta Dream are still in the playoff chase!

I mean, yeah, kinda! At 3-13, they're just a half-game ahead of New York for the worst spot in the WNBA standings, sure. But they have been competing better, particularly against the more accomplished teams like Los Angeles, who Atlanta led 74-72 with three minutes to spare on Sunday before defensively letting go of the rope. Teams like the Indiana Fever (5-11), who the Dream "host" tonight (8 PM Eastern, Fox Sports South in ATL, Fox Sports Indiana, Facebook), aren't exactly out of reach.

Indiana has dropped four straight, slipping behind Dallas (6-10) for the final playoff spot as the 8-seed, and play tonight on a previously unplanned back-to-back. If the Dream can pull out a victory tonight, and the Wings fall versus L.A. tomorrow, Atlanta could wake up on Thursday morning just two games back of the 8-spot with five contests remaining. Their opponent that evening? New York, who sits at 2-13 entering today's game against Connecticut.

Unless someone on Marietta Street is a huge Charli Collier fan, there's very little reason for Atlanta to tank the remaining games. Unlike last season, when Sabrina Ionescu was the prohibitive favorite to come off the draft board first, there's no clear-cut #1 pick, or even some set of talented top-five picks that are foreseeable. Winning the top-two lottery odds won't be too difficult, at this stage -- Dallas' recent wins have put their two-season record of 16-34 virtually beyond reach of Atlanta's 11-39, leaving the Liberty (12-37, 1.5 games "ahead") as the sole remaining competition.

Indiana knows that, just because you get to grab a Top-3 pick, you don't necessarily have a top contender for Rookie of the Year on your hands. Just ask Lauren Cox. Or, better yet, query Julie Allemand.

Happy with their array of guards coming into this season, Indy went big in 2020's draft and plucked Cox at #3 ahead of Atlanta's selection of Chennedy Carter (team-high 26 points vs. LAS, incl. 10-for-18 2FGs, 1-for-1 3FG). It has been a tough-go for the young former Baylor star, limited to just 12 games (one start), averaging just under 14 minutes/game, the forward scoring 3.5 PPG on 42.9 percent from the floor. Oddly enough, Cox comes off the bench along with 2019's #3 pick, center Teaira McCowan, whose adventures as a free throw shooter are the only visible explanation as to why Fever coach Marianne Stanley elects to conserve her and start Natalie Achonwa instead.

What has worked well is possibly the most successful intentional draft-and-stash job the league has seen in some time. Allemand was picked in the third round, at #33, way back in 2016's Draft, and has spent her intervening years in the French pro leagues and with Emma Meesseman's Belgian national team. The 24-year-old 'rookie' has given Indiana what we once hoped we'd see here out of overseas star Celine Dumerc several years ago. Julie sits at second in the WNBA with 5.6 APG while hitting threes at a Fever pitch (WNBA-best 46.8 3FG%).

Add the hopeful 2021 return of 2019 All-Star MVP and Atlanta resident Erica Wheeler (out for season, still recovering from post-COVID symptoms) to Allemand and 2018's #2-overall pick Kelsey Mitchell (league-highs of 41 3FGMs, 111 3FGAs), and that's a solid young backcourt the Fever (GM'd by former superstar Tamika Catchings) could roll with next season. Prospects might get even better if the debut of recent pickup Kamiah "You're Killin' Me!" Smalls (perfect 3-for-3 3FGs, 13 points in 17 minutes) during last night's historic make-up-game loss to Chicago, wasn't some abberation.

Tonight, Carter doesn't need to approach Courtney Vandersloot's record 18 assists from last night's Sky-Fever contest. But she will need to exploit Allemand's gambling defense (WNBA-rookie high 1.5 SPG but 110.7 D-Rating) to find Dreammates ready to catch-and-shoot.

Options include Blake Dietrick (now up to 45.5 3FG%, 3rd in WNBA), Shekinna Stricklen and Betnijah Laney out on the perimeter (Atlanta only took 11 3FGAs as a team on Sunday), or around the rim, where Mo Billings and Elizabeth Williams could force 36-year-old Candice Dupree (113.0 D-Rating, now replacing Atlanta's Courtney Williams for the worst among players w/ 15+ MPG), McCowan and Achonwa to try and keep up without fouling. Having surpassed Atlanta as the WNBA's worst team for defensive efficiency, Indiana will resort to foul-shot hacking (league-high 22 opponent FTAs allowed per game) if their foes (league-low 10.9 opponent TOs/game, very un-Catchings-like) don't get reckless when moving the ball.

Coach Nicki Collen's collective isn't the same team that fell 93-77 to Indiana, taking just 8 foul shots along the way, nearly a month ago. They're displaying more resiliency and, with better rebounding and possession control, can hang with decent opponents for much longer stretches of ball. Despite the 1-12 stretch that began with that loss in August, the Dream haven't dropped a game by double-digits in 16 days, and they come into tonight's action with a decided rest advantage.

Are the WNBA playoffs an Atlanta Pipe Dream? Probably. But Atlanta might as well start smoking!

 

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

 

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It's the Battle for the Basement!

Now, let's face it, both our Atlanta Dream (4-13) and the New York Liberty (2-14) ought to be mathematically eliminated by the start of the next work week. That's no reason, though, for either team to eliminate themselves this evening. Even if the quality of WNBA hoops will be a bit wobbly down in the Wubble, you're more likely to see these opponents compete hard this evening (6:30 PM Eastern, CBS Sports Network, YES Network in NYC), and less likely to witness a veritable tankfest.

As we guesstimated earlier, the Dream woke up this morning just two games out of the 8th and final playoff spot. Claiming that finish is going to take more heroic efforts in the coming days (Angel's Aces, and seed-jockeying Chicago and Connecticut up next on the docket) than toppling the lowly, Ionescu-less Liberty today.

2019's nightmarish campaign for the Dream saw coach Nicki Collen's club shoot a woeful 37.1 percent from the field, the worst markswomanship since Brian Agler's Minnesota Lynx in 2001 (Albeit elsewhere, Mr. Agler would gain a chance to redeem himself in ensuing years). Now, under former Lynx assistant and rookie coach Walt Hopkins' watch, the Liberty (37.8 FG%) are threatening both marks, most recently after a Monday-night-raw display from both the Sun and the Libs, clanking at less than a 35 percent clip.

It's fair to note that this was supposed to be super-rookie Sabrina Ionescu, not former Dream All-Star Layshia Clarendon, jacking up these shots for New York. And don't nobody blame Clarendon. Layshia's taking, and hitting shots as well as she ever has (career-best 59.3 TS%, incl. 47.5 FG% and 88.7 FT%). Plus, while standing in for Sabrina, Clarendon's assists (4.1 APG) are within shouting distance of those nearly record-breaking marks with Atlanta (6.6 APG) back in 2017.

Layshia's open for layups because the bigs in Hopkins' offense (26.4 O-Reb%) aren't really camping out under the offensive glass. Particularly not Amanda Zahui B, the 6-foot-5 Swede (35.9 2FG%, 36.6 3FG%; 56.2 3-point attempt rate surpassed only by 6-foot-3 teammate Kiah Stokes' 62.7) who hovers around the perimeter looking for the occasional hot night from deep range.

Zahui B makes up for limited post play at the other end of the floor with a league-best 35.4 D-Reb% (as per bball-ref) keeping her behind only L.A.'s Candace Parker with 9.1 RPG (2nd in WNBA; 8.3 defensive boards). She's posted double-figure defensive boards in the last four games without an offensive one, including a whopping 21 D-Rebs in Saturday's 80-63 loss to Las Vegas. But Amanda's generally uneven with her shooting touch, coming into today riding a 2-for-17 FG slump (0-for-8 3FGs) from the loss to the Aces and Monday's 70-65 loss to Connecticut.

While it's been rare, she's able to put it together with efficient double-doubles, like in last Wednesday's victory over Chicago (4-for-7 3FGs, 22 points and 12 all-defensive rebounds), spoiling Allie Quigley's career-best scoring day. Or, in the Libs' only other win back on August 7 versus Washington, when Amanda collected 14 boards (you can guess on which end) while going 6-for-9 on threes, the only jumpers she took. When Zahui B goes wowy, see, New York finds themselves in the thick of any contest.

As a team, Atlanta has only been in the top-half of the WNBA ranks for 3FG% once, and that was the inaugural 2008 season when they finished 7th out of 14 clubs. They sit just ahead of Minnesota for 3rd place among 12 teams right now, and that's thanks to Blake Dietrick, now the league leader with a blistering 46.7 3FG%. Blake went 1-for-8 in her second game of the season, and that plus the added ball-handling duties brought on by Chennedy Carter's absence and Courtney Williams' cautious return seemed to make her gun-shy.

But the trick is, shooting guards gotta shoot. In the ensuing six games, Dietrick took three 3FGAs. Total. While she's not taking a boatload of shot attempts, she has sunk at least one three in each of Atlanta's last nine games, going 18-for-33 in that stretch. Just the threat that the ball might find Dietrick in catch-and-shoot mode takes a help defender off of Carter, who has been sensational for the Dream with her inside scoring (last 2 games: 17-for-31 2FGs; 22 points and 6 assists in Tuesday's win over Indiana).

This season, there are just five NBA squads, out of 30, that shot above 80 percent from the charity stripe over the course of the season. Attribute it to the smaller sample size, if you wish, and/or the lack of fans in arenas clanging Thundersticks, but the WNBA compares favorably with eight of its 12 teams above the 80.0 FT% mark (a ninth, Dallas, sits at 79.9%). That list is led by, of all teams, last-place (in the standings) New York with its stellar WNBA-best 82.9 team FT%.

You can only do so much to dissuade foes from making their freebies, and Atlanta has been the least successful among them (WNBA-high 81.9 opponent FT%). Coach Nicki will need her bigs to box out properly, rotating out on occasion to keep Zahui B cool, and her wings to make forays by Clarendon and Kia Nurse (an exemplary 26.9 FG%, but 85.9 FT%) toward the paint to be challenging, but all without shot fouls and bonus fouls that grant New York (19.1 fouls drawn per game, 4th in WNBA) opportunities for buckets with the clock stopped.

If they can do those essential things, and keep the turnover advantage in their column, Atlanta (12-39, a half-game ahead of New York's 12-38 two-season record for the Lottery race) will have itself a little win streak going. I know, two games in a row. But at this stage of the season, you take what you can get!

 

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

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We're here! We're... NOT eliminated! What're ya gonna do about it?

Our Atlanta Dream managed to make it through Labor Day, still in playoff contention! Two games behind the 8-seed with three games left to play, is a bit less than ideal. But the remaining slate, beginning with tonight's meeting with the playoff-bound Chicago Sky (8:00 PM Eastern, CBS Sports Network), involves opponents that aren't exactly firing at all cylinders as the postseason nears.

Things were beginning to look up for reigning Coach of the Year James Wade back on August 16 when his Sky thrashed Atlanta, 92-67, holding the Dream below 40 percent from the field (incl. 2-for-14 3FGs) and under 17 points in three of four quarters. That win kickstarted a 4-0 mid-month stretch that had Chi-town looking at a favorable top-4 seed.

But then Atlanta gathered its bearings, and got Chennedy Carter back (19.0 PPG in past four contests). From August 23 on, the Dream collected three times as many Ws (3-3) as Chicago could muster (1-5). Saturday's 89-79 defeat at the hands of the Las Vegas Aces, despite keeping the contest close once again for three quarters, was the first in a few weeks where head coach Nicki Collen's club fell by double digits, and barely.

Atlanta has been playing break-even ball as the Sky (11-9, 2.0 games behind Minnesota and their would-be first-round bye) struggle to avoid breaking apart. Struggling guard Diamond DeShields (personal) and league-leading shot-blocker Azura Stevens (knee) each departed the Wubble last week, the former's status unclear as Chicago approaches a likely double-round, single-elimination playoff week.

Similar to Atlanta versus Vegas, the Sky hung tough with top-seed contender Los Angeles for three quarters on Sunday, charged by frontcourt player Cheyenne Parker's career-high 24 points (incl. 2-for-3 3FGs) and 10 rebounds. But this team runs only 8-or-9 players deep, especially shallow at the wing, and that's if one includes trade-deadline acquisition Stephanie Mavunga, who recently returned from a broken nose. Chicago held L.A. to 15 fourth-quarter points but, out of gas, still managed to lose the final frame by five points, and the game by an 86-80 score.

While conferences no longer matter as far as playoff-seeding goes, Chicago still leads Connecticut (10-10) for the crest of the Eastern Conference, in what has long been a Western-dominant league. Atlanta, who plays the Sun a couple days from today, will have a big say as to which team leaves Bradenton with the now-mythical banner.

The Dream enter today's Wubble action as the deeper team, health-wise, and, in a situation rarely seen since the days of a spry Angel McCoughtry in powder-blue, the more defensively sound unit. While Atlanta has shot the ball poorly, defensive intensity (league-best 28.8 opponent 3FG%; 98.8 D-Rating after August 22, 4th best in WNBA, equal to the Dream's 11th-place 98.8 O-Rating) has helped them live up to that break-even persona. Chicago's 106.8 D-Rating in that same stretch ranks 10th out of the league's 12 teams.

The challenge for Carter and the Dream guards tonight is single-minded: keep Courtney Vandersloot from breaking her own, freshly-minted WNBA record for assists in a game. By far the league's all-time leader in per-game assists (6.42 APG, and rising), Sloot's dime average has ascended in every season since the Sky bid adieu to Elena Delle Donne in 2016. 9.8 APG will shatter her own record for the third-straight season running, and 24 helpers in her final (one or) two regular-season games would make her the first WNBA pro ever to average a point-assist double-double.

Since breaking the WNBA game-record (previously 16 assists by Ticha Penechiero, in 1998 and 2002) with 18 assists in Chicago's rare recent win over Indiana, Vandersloot's game log includes assist tallies of 12, 11, and 15. A lock for the All-WNBA first team, Sloot might have a 10+ APG record already, if she could have found more teammates that could hit a three. Her lifemate Allie Quigley (4th all-time for career 3FG%) sunk 5-of-13 from deep on Sunday, breaking out of a brief slump herself, but their teammates were a collective 3-for-14 on three-point attempts.

Sky opponents, meanwhile, have had little trouble evading Sloot and Quig, and finding perimeter spots they like. Chicago's the only team since August 23 to allow over 40 percent shooting on 3FGs, so Atlanta ought to find it difficult to duplicate Saturday's 1-for-12 3FG effort, when they faced Angel and the feisty Aces. Betnijah Laney, Shekinna Stricklen and Blake Dietrick ought to be capable of feasting from outside, pulling Chicago's defense out of the paint and opening ample driving lanes for Carter.

8th-seeded Dallas closes out their weekend against last-place New York, so they should at least lock out the Dream from the playoff party by Sunday afternoon, when Atlanta faces Washington. Regardless, Atlanta (13-40 over past two seasons) could finish the season with a heady 3-0 flourish, miss the playoffs, and still be in the same situation on their way to an indeterminably long offseason -- at least they get to finish their season, right, Hawks?

Win or lose, the Dream will be second only to New York (12-41 in 2019 and 2020 so far) for the highest Draft lottery odds, with better chances to snag the top Draft spot than 2019's Lotto runner-up, Indiana (19-49 in 2018 and 2019).

As Twisted Sister might insist: We're not gonna tank it... anymore!

 

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

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PLAYOFFS? No, I'm not kiddin' you, Playoffs!

Last night's second-half surge to victory over Chicago placed the Dream (6-14) within a full game of Dallas (7-13) for the final WNBA Playoffs spot, the #8 seed.

An 8-seed would have to win TWO single-elimination matches to advance to the WNBA semifinal series. Next Tuesday's first-round tilt would be versus the #5 seed, likely either Minnesota or Phoenix. Then, if that upset's successful, next Thursday's second round would have the bottom seed tip off against the #3-seed, most likely L.A. or Las Vegas.

Top-seeded Seattle did their part by seizing control in the second half of their game with Dallas, the current 8-seed occupants, last night. Aside from upsetting Connecticut, the next trick Atlanta needs on Friday is for slip-sliding Chicago to get their act together and upend Dallas.

That's because the Wings' finale is on Sunday against the last-place New York Liberty, who are likely just packing up at this point. Atlanta holds the tiebreaker over Dallas, as the Dream have two wins over teams at .500 or above (2-10), including last night's comeback win over Chicago, to the Wings' one (1-10). Dallas can only improve on that record with a win on Friday over the 11-10 Sky, who is shorthanded but will want to avoid entering the playoffs on a five-game losing skid.

In the odd scenario that the Wings beat Chicago but lost somehow to New York on Sunday, and the Dream win out, then the next tiers of playoff tiebreakers would apply. Both the Dream and the Wings beat each other by ten points in their head-to-heads. Dallas would win the next tiebreaker, net points across all competitions, as they're at minus-64 while Atlanta sits at minus-147.

So, the ideal scenario for the Dream is Dallas only getting to 8-14, if at all, by dropping Friday's game to Chicago. That way, Atlanta has the chance to beat Connecticut and Washington in their final games to reach 8-14, then secure the 8-seed on the first tiebreaker.

For convenience's sake, I left out Washington (6-13), who's in the mix, too. They also have a likely win coming Saturday against New York,, who have the fun of closing out their season this weekend, thanks to August's rescheduled games, on a back-to-back (poor Libs). But the Mystics also play tonight against Derek Fisher's L.A. Sparks, who are eager to avoid a second-round single elimination match and therefore vying with Vegas for the coveted #2 seed.

Assuming the Mystics split their next two games, they could come into Sunday afternoon's meeting with the Dream with both teams at 7-14, although Atlanta would have the rest advantage over Mike Thibault's squad, who will play on a back-to-back. Even with the predicted loss to L.A., Washington would finish 3-9 versus at-or-above .500 teams, giving them a tiebreaker over Dallas. The final game of the WNBA's regular season, between the Mystics and the Dream, could then be for not all the marbles, but one momentous marble.

In sum, the critical games to watch -- Tonight, Washington needs to lose to Los Angeles (10 PM CBS Sports Network). Tomorrow, Atlanta has to find a way to defeat Connecticut (7 PM, Fox Sports Southeast), then kick back and cheer on Chicago to beat Dallas (8 PM, CBS Sports Network) on the other Wubble court. If all that's successful, then on Sunday (5 PM, Fox Sports Southeast), Atlanta and Washington would play what would effectively be first-round elimination practice.

It's a shot in the dark. But that's better than no shot at all!

 

Let's Go Dream!

~lw3

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