Who do you want at #6?


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1 hour ago, thecampster said:

There is a good chance that isn't going to be a 1st rounder. I'm not sure OKC makes the playoffs as they look to be heading toward a rebuild.

 

Thunder
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Hawks

Hawks (protected top 14)

 

PICK MAY OR MAY NOT TRANSFER DEPENDING ON THUNDER DRAFT POSITION

 

Traded • Dennis Schröder • Mike Muscala in a 3-team trade with 76ers, Thunder for • Carmelo Anthony • Justin Anderson • draft pick(s) (2022 first round pick, protected top 14 in 2022, else 2024 second round pick, 2025 second round pick (?-?)) (from Thunder) (?-?) on 2018-07-25

 

 

That roster is pretty young with the exception of Paul and Gallo.  Why would they rebuild in 2022?

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Cam has rare skill. No one in this class has rare skill

i agree with this. Cam's last two months of game action saw him really grow on both ends of the court.

Omfg Adebayo just reached into Tatum's chest and ripped out his sole (and soul) on a dunk attempt to save the game. If you tell me this Okongwu kid can gimme some-a that, he's who I want.

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3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

That roster is pretty young with the exception of Paul and Gallo.  Why would they rebuild in 2022?

Players on their current roster who are under contract for 2021-22.  Paul (player option), Gilgeous-Alexander (Team Option), Darius Bazley (Team option), Isaiah Roby (non-guaranteed), Dort Luguentz (non-guaranteed). They are on track to for a total roster remake in 21-22. Their is a good chance their expirings this year will be getting spun to contenders at the trade deadline.

 

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2 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Players on their current roster who are under contract for 2021-22.  Paul (player option), Gilgeous-Alexander (Team Option), Darius Bazley (Team option), Isaiah Roby (non-guaranteed), Dort Luguentz (non-guaranteed). They are on track to for a total roster remake in 21-22. Their is a good chance their expirings this year will be getting spun to contenders at the trade deadline.

 

So they wouldn't resign those guys for what reason again?

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Just now, Peoriabird said:

So they wouldn't resign those guy for what reason again?

Didn't say they wouldn't, just looking in a fairly accurate crystal ball. Oklahoma isn't really on any up and coming player's short list for happening places to live, They are cap hamstrung this offseason so their only flexibility is trading and most likely for draft assets in 2021.

 

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1 minute ago, thecampster said:

Didn't say they wouldn't, just looking in a fairly accurate crystal ball. Oklahoma isn't really on any up and coming player's short list for happening places to live, They are cap hamstrung this offseason so their only flexibility is trading and most likely for draft assets in 2021.

 

He thinks we're the only team that retools in the face of perpetual mediocrity (despite some in the fanbase who still wanna run it back).

That OKC team overachieved in a clearly unsustainable way.  It's no surprise that they'll likely be a lotto team in the near future.

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2 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Didn't say they wouldn't, just looking in a fairly accurate crystal ball. Oklahoma isn't really on any up and coming player's short list for happening places to live, They are cap hamstrung this offseason so their only flexibility is trading and most likely for draft assets in 2021.

 

Why would they need more draft assests.  How many picks did they get for Paul George and Westbrook? I think they have 15 1st round picks over the next 6 years

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14 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

Why would they need more draft assests.  How many picks did they get for Paul George and Westbrook? I think they have 15 1st round picks over the next 6 years

Which should tell you they're planning a rebuild.

 

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2 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Which should tell you they're planning a rebuild.

 

They have 3 in the next 3 drafts. but 7 in the following 4.  They will probably package some of that future to get picks in the next 3 and rebuild.

 

2020 first round draft pick from Denver
Denver's 2020 1st round pick to Oklahoma City [Denver-Oklahoma City, 7/8/2019]

2021 first round draft pick from Miami and/or Houston (swap, Oklahoma City or Miami outgoing to Houston)
Oklahoma City will receive the two most favorable of its 2021 1st round pick, Miami's 2021 1st round pick and Houston's 2021 1st round pick protected for selections 1-4 and Houston will receive the least favorable of the three (via Miami to Phoenix to Philadelphia to L.A. Clippers to Oklahoma City; via Oklahoma City's right to swap Oklahoma City or Miami for Houston) (if the Houston pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyable, then Houston's obligation to Oklahoma City will be extinguished) [Miami-New Orleans-Phoenix, 2/19/2015; Philadelphia-Phoenix, 6/21/2018; L.A. Clippers-Philadelphia, 2/6/2019; L.A. Clippers-Oklahoma City, 7/10/2019; Houston-Oklahoma City, 7/16/2019]

2022 first round draft pick from L.A. Clippers
L.A. Clippers' 2022 1st round pick to Oklahoma City [L.A. Clippers-Oklahoma City, 7/10/2019]

2023 first round draft pick from L.A. Clippers (swap, Oklahoma City outgoing)
Oklahoma City has the right to swap its 2023 1st round pick for the L.A. Clippers' 2023 1st round pick [L.A. Clippers-Oklahoma City, 7/10/2019]

2023 first round draft pick from Miami
Miami's 1st round pick to Oklahoma City (via L.A. Clippers) protected for selections 1-14 in 2023, 1-14 in 2024 and 1-14 in 2025 and unprotected in 2026 [L.A. Clippers-Miami, 7/6/2019; L.A. Clippers-Oklahoma City, 7/10/2019]

2024 first round draft pick from Houston
Houston's 2024 1st round pick to Oklahoma City protected for selections 1-4; if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Houston will instead convey its 2024 2nd round pick and 2025 2nd round pick to Oklahoma City [Houston-Oklahoma City, 7/16/2019]

2024 first round draft pick from L.A. Clippers
L.A. Clippers' 2024 1st round pick to Oklahoma City [L.A. Clippers-Oklahoma City, 7/10/2019]

2024 second round draft pick from Memphis
Memphis' 2024 2nd round pick to Oklahoma City [Memphis-Oklahoma City, 7/6/2019]

2025 first round draft pick from Houston or L.A. Clippers (swap, Oklahoma City outgoing)
Oklahoma City has the right to swap its 2025 1st round pick for Houston's 2025 1st round pick protected for selections 1-10 or the L.A. Clippers' 2025 1st round pick (if the Houston pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyable, then Houston's obligation to Oklahoma City will be extinguished) [L.A. Clippers-Oklahoma City, 7/10/2019; Houston-Oklahoma City, 7/16/2019]

2026 first round draft pick from Houston
Houston's 2026 1st round pick to Oklahoma City protected for selections 1-4; if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Houston will instead convey its 2026 2nd round pick to Oklahoma City [Houston-Oklahoma City, 7/16/2019]

2026 first round draft pick from L.A. Clippers
L.A. Clippers' 2026 1st round pick to Oklahoma City [L.A. Clippers-Oklahoma City, 7/10/2019]

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Last year: 

High on Haliburton, Reddish, Bol, Ja, and Zion. 

Pretty high on Clarke even though his age is a major negative by Pelton's system. 

Low on Herro

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/26287358/ranking-best-nba-draft-prospects-stats-scouting

High on Ball, Haliburton, Edwards, and Deni

Low on Toppin and Achuiwa. 

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1. LaMelo Ball

Illawarra Hawks
PG
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 4.8 WARP

In a draft that is wide open at the top, Ball's performance in the Australian NBL stands out. While the level of competition was low, Ball rated as the fourth-best player in the league at age 18 -- ahead of NBA veterans Bryce Cotton and Scott Machado, among others.

Ball's inefficient shooting (he made just 25% of his 3-point attempts) is a concern, but his playmaking and rebounding are both preternaturally strong. As a result, the gap between his consensus projection and anyone else's is larger than the difference between No. 2 and No. 9 in the rankings.

2. Tyrese Haliburton

Iowa State
PG
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 3.4 WARP

Haliburton's freshman season stood out statistically, though he had a historically low usage rate for a prospect, finishing just 9% of the Cyclones' plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover. A strong performance at last summer's FIBA U19 World Cup put Haliburton firmly on the radar, and he backed it up by more than doubling his usage rate to 20% as a sophomore without sacrificing much efficiency.

Haliburton's strong steal and block rates are key indicators of his ability to read plays on defense, and he projects as one of the better shooters in the draft after hitting 43% of his 3s in college.

3. Anthony Edwards

Georgia
SG
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 15

Consensus: 3.1 WARP

A decent but not spectacular freshman season marks Edwards as a relatively risky top pick. Other top-3 players with similar stats-only projections include hits (Victor Oladipo, Derrick Rose) but also big misses (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Andrew Wiggins).

Edwards' value as a pro probably will depend on his ability to become a consistent 3-point threat after hitting just 29% of his 7.7 attempts per game in 2019-20.

4. Cole Anthony

North Carolina
PG
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 3

Consensus: 2.9 WARP

Few top prospects have had such a big disparity between AAU and college performance as Anthony, who rated as the EYBL's best player both in 2017 as a rising junior (which is part of this projection) and again before his senior year of high school in 2018.

Based strictly on his season at North Carolina, where he made a disappointing 40% of his 2-point attempts and was far less effective accumulating assists and steals, Anthony would rate as a late first-round prospect rather than on in the top 5.

5. R.J. Hampton

New Zealand Breakers
G
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 5

Consensus: 2.6 WARP

Hampton wasn't nearly as effective in the NBL as Ball was, ranking as the league's 45th-best player on a per-minute basis. He was almost equally inefficient without the kind of elite playmaking we saw from Ball, and his strong projection relies more heavily on his stats being regressed to the mean.

As a result, I'd be wary of considering Hampton a top-5 prospect but would defer to those scouts who believe he belongs in the back part of the lottery.

6. Deni Avdija

Maccabi Tel Aviv
F
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 11

Consensus: 2.4 WARP

Unlike nearly all other prospects in this year's draft, Avdija will play competitive games before the draft as the Israeli Basketball Super League resumes play without fans.

Playing in Israel, Avdija has been a high-percentage finisher -- he wasn't quite as strong in EuroLeague play this season -- with a strong assist rate for his size. Whether he can maintain 37.5% 3-point accuracy this year in the BSL (he shot 28% in EuroLeague) will help determine Avdija's upside.

7. Devin Vassell

Florida State
W
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 2.4 WARP

The strongest 3-and-D prospect in this year's draft, Vassell made 42% of his 3-point attempts over two seasons at Florida State and boasts a strong combination of steal and block rates that marks him as a plus wing defender.

He compares well to Danny Green coming out of North Carolina.

8. Killian Hayes

Ratiopharm Ulm
PG
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 12

Consensus: 2.1 WARP

Expect growing pains if a team drafts the 18-year-old Hayes in the top 10 and gives him the keys to the offense right away. Only two NBA-bound players in my database (Kendall Marshall and David Stockton) have had higher projected turnover rates.

Yet in time, Hayes' strong finishing for his size and court vision could make him a capable lead ball handler.

9. Onyeka Okongwu

USC
PF
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 18

Consensus: 2.1 WARP

The top-rated post player in my projections, Okongwu was productive enough as a freshman to offset the higher replacement level for big men. Okongwu has the third-best block projection among players in our top 100, along with an atypically strong steal rate for a post player. Okongwu was efficient offensively thanks to 62% shooting on 2s and 72% from the foul line.

10. Isaac Okoro

Auburn
SF
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 37

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

Okoro ranks in the top 10 largely on the strength of his position in the top 100, as he had an underwhelming freshman season for a top-10 pick.

Only Okoro's solid block rate for a wing showcases the athletic potential scouts value, and he must improve on 29% 3-point shooting -- with 67% accuracy at the free throw line not encouraging in that regard.

11. Aaron Nesmith

Vanderbilt
W
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 17

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

Nesmith has apparently climbed draft boards, and understandably so given his potential as a shooter. He shot an incredible 52% on 115 3-point attempts during an abbreviated sophomore season, and while that's obviously not sustainable -- Nesmith shot just 34% from beyond the arc as a freshman -- 83% foul shooting does mark him as likely to show NBA 3-point range.

12. Theo Maledon

ASVEL
PG
Top 100: No. 17
Stats: No. 14

Consensus: 1.6 WARP

Like Hayes, Maledon played a key role for a high-level European team at a young age, though he looks a bit further away from contributing in the NBA. Maledon's playmaking numbers haven't been nearly as strong, and his 3-point shooting could suffer from the transition to the longer line. As a result, this projection might flatter him a little.

13. Cassius Winston

Michigan State
PG
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 9

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

In recent years, veteran college point guards considered too small to be NBA starters have been a consistent source of draft value. Like Winston, Monte Morris (pick No. 51 in 2017) and Fred VanVleet (undrafted in 2016) weren't high picks despite top-10 stats-only projections. While it took them a couple of seasons to establish themselves, Morris is now a top-tier backup and VanVleet a valuable starter.

Winston's excellent shooting (43% career from 3, 85% on free throws) should translate well to the NBA.

14. Jahmi'us Ramsey

Texas Tech
G
Top 100: No. 29
Stats: No. 10

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

As a freshman, Ramsey played a key role for the Red Raiders; his 26% usage rate ranked sixth among first-year players in the power conferences, per Sports-Reference.com, and of that group only Duke's Vernon Carey Jr. had a better true shooting percentage.

One concern is that Ramsey's 43% accuracy on 141 3-pointers might have been a fluke, as he shot just 64% from the line.

15. Isaiah Joe

Arkansas
SG
Top 100: No. 60
Stats: No. 6

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

Perhaps the best pure shooter in the draft, Joe made just 34% of his 3s as a sophomore but attempted an incredible 10.6 per game and hit 41% of his 8.0 attempts as a freshman. While he slumped beyond the arc, Joe did hit 89% of his free throws as a sophomore, an encouraging sign.

Joe doesn't do much else besides shoot, which helps explain his low spot in the top 100, but with solid size and his 3-point volume, he has a chance to be a Duncan Robinson-style specialist.

16. James Wiseman

Memphis
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 70

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

Because Wiseman played in only three college games, his unimpressive statistical projection is based almost entirely on the 2017 EYBL. Playing for Team Penny, Wiseman was a dominant shot-blocker but not the kind of interior force you'd expect from one of the nation's top prospects. His steal rate (only five in 17 games) was also a concern.

Wiseman did dominate low-level competition in his first two games at Memphis and was productive, though not a difference-maker, in a loss to Oregon before being ruled ineligible.

17. Malachi Flynn

San Diego State
PG
Top 100: No. 38
Stats: No. 8

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

After two solid years at Washington State, Flynn broke through as an elite college point guard after transferring to San Diego State. Size (he's 6-foot-1) could be an issue for Flynn in the NBA, but he's a capable shooter with good markers in terms of reading the game.

18. Saddiq Bey

Villanova
SF
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 21

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

Unusual for a statistically top-rated player, Bey didn't contribute much in terms of defensive stats, though he projects as a capable individual defender. Instead, his projection owes primarily to 42% 3-point shooting and mistake-free play on offense.

19. Trevelin Queen

New Mexico State
SF
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 7

Consensus: 1.3 WARP

My top-ranked player not currently projected among the ESPN top 60, junior college product Queen earned some attention from scouts because of his defensive potential. Among players in my college projection database listed at 6-foot-6 or taller, only Michael Carter-Williams had a better projected steal rate than Queen, who is also an above-average shot-blocker for a wing.

Queen's 39% 3-point shooting on 5.3 attempts per game as a senior suggests 3-and-D potential.

20. Nico Mannion

Arizona
PG
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 25

Consensus: 1.3 WARP

Mannion's freshman season was projectable. While he wasn't an efficient scorer at Arizona, Mannion could boost his efficiency by improving on 33% 3-point shooting, something his 80% accuracy at the free throw line suggests he has the potential to do.

21. Tyrese Maxey

Kentucky
SG
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 34

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

As a freshman, Maxey's production was similar to Mannion's -- his shot is also projectable based on the disconnect between his 29% 3-point shooting and 83% accuracy at the line -- with the notable difference that he isn't the same kind of playmaker.

22. Patrick Williams

Florida State
F
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 35

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

Averaging a block and a steal per game in just 22.5 minutes off the bench was impressive for Williams. On the downside, weak defensive rebounding -- worse than that of his teammate Vassell -- might make it difficult for Williams to play as a small-ball 4 in the NBA.

23. Josh Green

Arizona
SG
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 33

Consensus: 1.1 WARP

Another one-and-done prospect with a similar combo of stats and ranking as Mannion, Maxey and Williams, Green, who is from Australia, must improve on 45% 2-point shooting as a freshman, though he posted encouraging defensive numbers.

24. Joel Ayayi

Gonzaga
G
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 13

Consensus: 1.0 WARP

Consider Ayayi one to watch for the future. In his Instagram post announcing his early entry to the draft, the WCC tournament MVP said his No. 1 option was returning to school, and with the pre-draft process currently shut down, it will be tough for him to boost his stock before the NCAA's withdrawal date.

25. Tyrell Terry

Stanford
PG
Top 100: No. 47
Stats: No. 20

Consensus: .9 WARP

Relatively unheralded as a prospect entering the season, Terry put himself on the NBA's radar with impressive efficiency for a freshman point guard, knocking down 41% of his 3-point attempts and 89% of his free throws. He's still developing as a playmaker.

26. Tre Jones

Duke
PG
Top 100: No. 34
Stats: No. 27

Consensus: .9 WARP

Returning for his sophomore season allowed Jones to improve his 3-point shooting from 26% as a freshman to 36%. The adjustment to the longer line could be an issue, but Jones' form doesn't appear broken, as he has made 77% of his career free throws.

27. Markus Howard

Marquette
PG
Top 100: No. 64
Stats: No. 16

Consensus: .9 WARP

Because of his small stature (he's listed at 5-foot-11) and shoot-first style, Howard is the rare early developing star who stayed four years in college. He did improve his playmaking as an upperclassmen, but if he's going to stick in the NBA it probably will be as a Patty Mills-style combo guard, having hit 43% of his career 3-point attempts.

28. Kira Lewis Jr.

Alabama
PG
Top 100: No. 23
Stats: No. 39

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

Though he is a sophomore, Lewis is younger than most of the one-and-done prospects in this year's draft. He was more productive last season than Mannion, Maxey and Green but doesn't benefit as much from the regression to the mean factor in my projections because he has two years of college data to their one.

29. Xavier Tillman

Michigan State
PF
Top 100: No. 49
Stats: No. 22

Consensus: 0.8 WARP

The most surprising result in this year's draft projections is that Tillman finishes as the second-rated post prospect, ahead of likely lottery picks Obi Toppin (0.7 projected WARP) and Precious Achiuwa (0.5) -- both of whom are outside the top 30. Age is a factor: Though Toppin has played only two college seasons to Tillman's three, as a redshirt sophomore Toppin is almost a year older, and one-and-done prospect Achiuwa is barely eight months younger than Tillman.

Toppin is the far more skilled scorer and Achiuwa more versatile defensively, but Tillman lacks their weaknesses at either end of the court, making him a more complete prospect. Per Sports-Reference.com, he actually led all NCAA players in box plus-minus during 2019-20, with Toppin third and Achiuwa not cracking the top 200.

30. Desmond Bane

TCU
SG
Top 100: No. 44
Stats: No. 26

Consensus: 0.8 WARP

Atypically young for a four-year prospect -- he'll turn 22 later this week -- Bane is an excellent shooter who converted 43% of his career 3-point attempts and showed solid playmaking chops for a player of his ilk.

 

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All things considered I still think Haliburton would be a great fit and pick at 6.  No need to overthink this, or to move around in this draft.  With Haliburton we would have a great roster to grow with that wouldn't need much of anything other than time and development.  It's entirely possible that we already have everything we need to become an East power within 2-3 years.

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4 minutes ago, NBASupes said:
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1. LaMelo Ball

Illawarra Hawks
PG
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 4.8 WARP

In a draft that is wide open at the top, Ball's performance in the Australian NBL stands out. While the level of competition was low, Ball rated as the fourth-best player in the league at age 18 -- ahead of NBA veterans Bryce Cotton and Scott Machado, among others.

Ball's inefficient shooting (he made just 25% of his 3-point attempts) is a concern, but his playmaking and rebounding are both preternaturally strong. As a result, the gap between his consensus projection and anyone else's is larger than the difference between No. 2 and No. 9 in the rankings.

2. Tyrese Haliburton

Iowa State
PG
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 3.4 WARP

Haliburton's freshman season stood out statistically, though he had a historically low usage rate for a prospect, finishing just 9% of the Cyclones' plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover. A strong performance at last summer's FIBA U19 World Cup put Haliburton firmly on the radar, and he backed it up by more than doubling his usage rate to 20% as a sophomore without sacrificing much efficiency.

Haliburton's strong steal and block rates are key indicators of his ability to read plays on defense, and he projects as one of the better shooters in the draft after hitting 43% of his 3s in college.

3. Anthony Edwards

Georgia
SG
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 15

Consensus: 3.1 WARP

A decent but not spectacular freshman season marks Edwards as a relatively risky top pick. Other top-3 players with similar stats-only projections include hits (Victor Oladipo, Derrick Rose) but also big misses (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Andrew Wiggins).

Edwards' value as a pro probably will depend on his ability to become a consistent 3-point threat after hitting just 29% of his 7.7 attempts per game in 2019-20.

4. Cole Anthony

North Carolina
PG
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 3

Consensus: 2.9 WARP

Few top prospects have had such a big disparity between AAU and college performance as Anthony, who rated as the EYBL's best player both in 2017 as a rising junior (which is part of this projection) and again before his senior year of high school in 2018.

Based strictly on his season at North Carolina, where he made a disappointing 40% of his 2-point attempts and was far less effective accumulating assists and steals, Anthony would rate as a late first-round prospect rather than on in the top 5.

5. R.J. Hampton

New Zealand Breakers
G
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 5

Consensus: 2.6 WARP

Hampton wasn't nearly as effective in the NBL as Ball was, ranking as the league's 45th-best player on a per-minute basis. He was almost equally inefficient without the kind of elite playmaking we saw from Ball, and his strong projection relies more heavily on his stats being regressed to the mean.

As a result, I'd be wary of considering Hampton a top-5 prospect but would defer to those scouts who believe he belongs in the back part of the lottery.

6. Deni Avdija

Maccabi Tel Aviv
F
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 11

Consensus: 2.4 WARP

Unlike nearly all other prospects in this year's draft, Avdija will play competitive games before the draft as the Israeli Basketball Super League resumes play without fans.

Playing in Israel, Avdija has been a high-percentage finisher -- he wasn't quite as strong in EuroLeague play this season -- with a strong assist rate for his size. Whether he can maintain 37.5% 3-point accuracy this year in the BSL (he shot 28% in EuroLeague) will help determine Avdija's upside.

7. Devin Vassell

Florida State
W
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 2.4 WARP

The strongest 3-and-D prospect in this year's draft, Vassell made 42% of his 3-point attempts over two seasons at Florida State and boasts a strong combination of steal and block rates that marks him as a plus wing defender.

He compares well to Danny Green coming out of North Carolina.

8. Killian Hayes

Ratiopharm Ulm
PG
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 12

Consensus: 2.1 WARP

Expect growing pains if a team drafts the 18-year-old Hayes in the top 10 and gives him the keys to the offense right away. Only two NBA-bound players in my database (Kendall Marshall and David Stockton) have had higher projected turnover rates.

Yet in time, Hayes' strong finishing for his size and court vision could make him a capable lead ball handler.

9. Onyeka Okongwu

USC
PF
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 18

Consensus: 2.1 WARP

The top-rated post player in my projections, Okongwu was productive enough as a freshman to offset the higher replacement level for big men. Okongwu has the third-best block projection among players in our top 100, along with an atypically strong steal rate for a post player. Okongwu was efficient offensively thanks to 62% shooting on 2s and 72% from the foul line.

10. Isaac Okoro

Auburn
SF
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 37

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

Okoro ranks in the top 10 largely on the strength of his position in the top 100, as he had an underwhelming freshman season for a top-10 pick.

Only Okoro's solid block rate for a wing showcases the athletic potential scouts value, and he must improve on 29% 3-point shooting -- with 67% accuracy at the free throw line not encouraging in that regard.

11. Aaron Nesmith

Vanderbilt
W
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 17

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

Nesmith has apparently climbed draft boards, and understandably so given his potential as a shooter. He shot an incredible 52% on 115 3-point attempts during an abbreviated sophomore season, and while that's obviously not sustainable -- Nesmith shot just 34% from beyond the arc as a freshman -- 83% foul shooting does mark him as likely to show NBA 3-point range.

12. Theo Maledon

ASVEL
PG
Top 100: No. 17
Stats: No. 14

Consensus: 1.6 WARP

Like Hayes, Maledon played a key role for a high-level European team at a young age, though he looks a bit further away from contributing in the NBA. Maledon's playmaking numbers haven't been nearly as strong, and his 3-point shooting could suffer from the transition to the longer line. As a result, this projection might flatter him a little.

13. Cassius Winston

Michigan State
PG
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 9

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

In recent years, veteran college point guards considered too small to be NBA starters have been a consistent source of draft value. Like Winston, Monte Morris (pick No. 51 in 2017) and Fred VanVleet (undrafted in 2016) weren't high picks despite top-10 stats-only projections. While it took them a couple of seasons to establish themselves, Morris is now a top-tier backup and VanVleet a valuable starter.

Winston's excellent shooting (43% career from 3, 85% on free throws) should translate well to the NBA.

14. Jahmi'us Ramsey

Texas Tech
G
Top 100: No. 29
Stats: No. 10

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

As a freshman, Ramsey played a key role for the Red Raiders; his 26% usage rate ranked sixth among first-year players in the power conferences, per Sports-Reference.com, and of that group only Duke's Vernon Carey Jr. had a better true shooting percentage.

One concern is that Ramsey's 43% accuracy on 141 3-pointers might have been a fluke, as he shot just 64% from the line.

15. Isaiah Joe

Arkansas
SG
Top 100: No. 60
Stats: No. 6

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

Perhaps the best pure shooter in the draft, Joe made just 34% of his 3s as a sophomore but attempted an incredible 10.6 per game and hit 41% of his 8.0 attempts as a freshman. While he slumped beyond the arc, Joe did hit 89% of his free throws as a sophomore, an encouraging sign.

Joe doesn't do much else besides shoot, which helps explain his low spot in the top 100, but with solid size and his 3-point volume, he has a chance to be a Duncan Robinson-style specialist.

16. James Wiseman

Memphis
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 70

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

Because Wiseman played in only three college games, his unimpressive statistical projection is based almost entirely on the 2017 EYBL. Playing for Team Penny, Wiseman was a dominant shot-blocker but not the kind of interior force you'd expect from one of the nation's top prospects. His steal rate (only five in 17 games) was also a concern.

Wiseman did dominate low-level competition in his first two games at Memphis and was productive, though not a difference-maker, in a loss to Oregon before being ruled ineligible.

17. Malachi Flynn

San Diego State
PG
Top 100: No. 38
Stats: No. 8

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

After two solid years at Washington State, Flynn broke through as an elite college point guard after transferring to San Diego State. Size (he's 6-foot-1) could be an issue for Flynn in the NBA, but he's a capable shooter with good markers in terms of reading the game.

18. Saddiq Bey

Villanova
SF
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 21

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

Unusual for a statistically top-rated player, Bey didn't contribute much in terms of defensive stats, though he projects as a capable individual defender. Instead, his projection owes primarily to 42% 3-point shooting and mistake-free play on offense.

19. Trevelin Queen

New Mexico State
SF
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 7

Consensus: 1.3 WARP

My top-ranked player not currently projected among the ESPN top 60, junior college product Queen earned some attention from scouts because of his defensive potential. Among players in my college projection database listed at 6-foot-6 or taller, only Michael Carter-Williams had a better projected steal rate than Queen, who is also an above-average shot-blocker for a wing.

Queen's 39% 3-point shooting on 5.3 attempts per game as a senior suggests 3-and-D potential.

20. Nico Mannion

Arizona
PG
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 25

Consensus: 1.3 WARP

Mannion's freshman season was projectable. While he wasn't an efficient scorer at Arizona, Mannion could boost his efficiency by improving on 33% 3-point shooting, something his 80% accuracy at the free throw line suggests he has the potential to do.

21. Tyrese Maxey

Kentucky
SG
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 34

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

As a freshman, Maxey's production was similar to Mannion's -- his shot is also projectable based on the disconnect between his 29% 3-point shooting and 83% accuracy at the line -- with the notable difference that he isn't the same kind of playmaker.

22. Patrick Williams

Florida State
F
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 35

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

Averaging a block and a steal per game in just 22.5 minutes off the bench was impressive for Williams. On the downside, weak defensive rebounding -- worse than that of his teammate Vassell -- might make it difficult for Williams to play as a small-ball 4 in the NBA.

23. Josh Green

Arizona
SG
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 33

Consensus: 1.1 WARP

Another one-and-done prospect with a similar combo of stats and ranking as Mannion, Maxey and Williams, Green, who is from Australia, must improve on 45% 2-point shooting as a freshman, though he posted encouraging defensive numbers.

24. Joel Ayayi

Gonzaga
G
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 13

Consensus: 1.0 WARP

Consider Ayayi one to watch for the future. In his Instagram post announcing his early entry to the draft, the WCC tournament MVP said his No. 1 option was returning to school, and with the pre-draft process currently shut down, it will be tough for him to boost his stock before the NCAA's withdrawal date.

25. Tyrell Terry

Stanford
PG
Top 100: No. 47
Stats: No. 20

Consensus: .9 WARP

Relatively unheralded as a prospect entering the season, Terry put himself on the NBA's radar with impressive efficiency for a freshman point guard, knocking down 41% of his 3-point attempts and 89% of his free throws. He's still developing as a playmaker.

26. Tre Jones

Duke
PG
Top 100: No. 34
Stats: No. 27

Consensus: .9 WARP

Returning for his sophomore season allowed Jones to improve his 3-point shooting from 26% as a freshman to 36%. The adjustment to the longer line could be an issue, but Jones' form doesn't appear broken, as he has made 77% of his career free throws.

27. Markus Howard

Marquette
PG
Top 100: No. 64
Stats: No. 16

Consensus: .9 WARP

Because of his small stature (he's listed at 5-foot-11) and shoot-first style, Howard is the rare early developing star who stayed four years in college. He did improve his playmaking as an upperclassmen, but if he's going to stick in the NBA it probably will be as a Patty Mills-style combo guard, having hit 43% of his career 3-point attempts.

28. Kira Lewis Jr.

Alabama
PG
Top 100: No. 23
Stats: No. 39

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

Though he is a sophomore, Lewis is younger than most of the one-and-done prospects in this year's draft. He was more productive last season than Mannion, Maxey and Green but doesn't benefit as much from the regression to the mean factor in my projections because he has two years of college data to their one.

29. Xavier Tillman

Michigan State
PF
Top 100: No. 49
Stats: No. 22

Consensus: 0.8 WARP

The most surprising result in this year's draft projections is that Tillman finishes as the second-rated post prospect, ahead of likely lottery picks Obi Toppin (0.7 projected WARP) and Precious Achiuwa (0.5) -- both of whom are outside the top 30. Age is a factor: Though Toppin has played only two college seasons to Tillman's three, as a redshirt sophomore Toppin is almost a year older, and one-and-done prospect Achiuwa is barely eight months younger than Tillman.

Toppin is the far more skilled scorer and Achiuwa more versatile defensively, but Tillman lacks their weaknesses at either end of the court, making him a more complete prospect. Per Sports-Reference.com, he actually led all NCAA players in box plus-minus during 2019-20, with Toppin third and Achiuwa not cracking the top 200.

30. Desmond Bane

TCU
SG
Top 100: No. 44
Stats: No. 26

Consensus: 0.8 WARP

Atypically young for a four-year prospect -- he'll turn 22 later this week -- Bane is an excellent shooter who converted 43% of his career 3-point attempts and showed solid playmaking chops for a player of his ilk.

 

Yikes.  Are you as low on that board as I think you are?  I know I am.

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Pelton's charts consider LaMelo Ball to be a superior prospect to Ja Morant

Cam's terrible rookie year killed his projection but his HS career made it still where's a #3 on the big board and tied with Deni and Vassell at #6 in this year's draft. 

Luka and Zion are considered elite prospects by his charts. Luka having a 5.8 and Zion with a 5.4

#3 in his class, Trae Young rates favorably with a 3. That would place him at #3 just behind Ja Morant who had a 3.1 in last year class and it would place him 4th behind Ball, Hali, and Ant. 

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/23796252/2018-nba-draft-projections-kevin-pelton-luka-doncic-marvin-bagley-deandre-ayton

Cole Anthony like Cam Reddish had a terrible freshman year which was killed by fit and injuries and ended up with a 2.9 carried by his elite HS performance. 

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1 minute ago, AHF said:

Toppin not in his top 30.  :blink:

Nope. He mentioned it on Tillman post: 

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The most surprising result in this year's draft projections is that Tillman finishes as the second-rated post prospect, ahead of likely lottery picks Obi Toppin (0.7 projected WARP) and Precious Achiuwa (0.5) -- both of whom are outside the top 30. Age is a factor: Though Toppin has played only two college seasons to Tillman's three, as a redshirt sophomore Toppin is almost a year older, and one-and-done prospect Achiuwa is barely eight months younger than Tillman.

Toppin is the far more skilled scorer and Achiuwa more versatile defensively, but Tillman lacks their weaknesses at either end of the court, making him a more complete prospect. Per Sports-Reference.com, he actually led all NCAA players in box plus-minus during 2019-20, with Toppin third and Achiuwa not cracking the top 200.

 

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