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2020-21 The Current Ask Supes


Gray Mule

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14 minutes ago, marco102 said:

When I say keep the core, I mean we don't have to trade anyone in the next two seasons.  After then, we'll have a better idea who should be moved if anyone.  Some just want to trade before realizing who we should trade or if we need to trade at all.  What if next year we win a championship? Do you jettison Cam, Heurter, JC, OO, or Hunter off because you're afraid of the luxury tax or want another "star" player? 

 

EDIT: I should say we don't have to trade any of the young core this season without running it back to see what we actually need.  Also, if the right player becomes available then of course we may have to part with someone. I'm just not willing to do it before I see how the teams perform with this young core.

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Is clear that it could be difficult to keep our core and probably we need to make a trade for other players but the time is not now, we still have 2 seasons.

Talent wise this year is probably going to be the best one, is possible that next year as well if we keep Gallo. After that we will replace some key players for other pieces but is also true that our young guys would have develop, is difficult to predict the real level of the team in 2 years. 

By the time  Bogi, Capela and Gallo contract expires, Gallo will be a non factor, Bogi will be 32 and the only player worth resigning will be Capela.

Assuming Schlenck have already plans to lock Young, Reddish, Hunter, Collins and Okongwu with Jalen Johnson and Cooper and at least other first rd pick on the roster the decision might be between Capela or Huerter.  All will depend on the players we would have added through draft and FA and is very difficult to predict because when time is coming Bogi, Gallo or Capela may have been traded for other key pieces at different positions.

I think Schlenck see Young, Reddish, Hunter, Collins and Okongwu as the future starting 5, the rest is dynamic and Huerter is probably he odd man out if is needed. I think next year with Reddish, Bogi and Hunter healthy his role is going to go down, he is a fantastic player but his ceiling is lower.

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Stats are a major driver in contract negotiations when you are a young "pre-prime" player who hasn't proven much.

There is only one basketball, there are only so many shots available game to game.

Even without vets like Bogi, Gallo, and potentially Wright or Lue, to steal minutes and shots away, there still aren't a ton amongst just the core guys by themselves for them to truly showcase their peak value. 

For every guy who may rise closer to or surpass 20+ppg, that means another guy will statistically fall closer to or below 10ppg as a result. There just aren't enough baskets in a 48 minute game for a 10 man group to all eat every night.

I say that to say, these things will figure themselves out. Cam or Dre may individually end up being max-type talents, but they both wont be able to put up the gaudy stats without it significantly driving down the cost of the other or even a Kevin Huerter in the process. 

That is the twisted beauty of having a large collection of talent. Nobody will ever be called upon to be "the guy" as long as they are surrounded by multiple weapons.

That makes it more realistic that you can afford to keep them because you are likely paying for a bunch of 14 to 18ppg scorers as opposed to the 23ppg+ types that they could be on their own.

The one caveat being the "OKC Harden" scenario, where a Dre or Cam, maybe Jalen one day, believe they are much better than their role or stats show, and find a team willing to make them the focal point.

So long as everyone is willing to let Trae sing lead, we should be good for a decent stretch. If we are winning, contending, I can't see that not being the case.

It will still be expensive, but not nearly as expensive as we fear. As long as we don't let anyone walk away for nothing, we should all be happy with whats to come of this core group.

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21 hours ago, sturt said:

This is my one disappointment with this draft, but it feels hyper critical to say so.... ie, part of the ingenuity that kept SAS relevant for as long as they were is they were arguably the most aggressive Eurostash team for lo those many years. For a team that expects to be drafting late for a few years, accumulating some extra 2nd rounders and using those to pick up some European developmental pieces ends up acting as a supplement year after year as those fruits ripen.

One point that I think is relevant to this is the fact that SA’s big hits with the Euro stash strategy came at a time when most teams didn’t adequately scout Euro players and so a team that invested more heavily could capture extra value.  I think those days are long past.  Now the stash aspect is still valuable but this is no longer a market where prime talent is any more likely to be missed than for US players.

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47 minutes ago, AHF said:

One point that I think is relevant to this is the fact that SA’s big hits with the Euro stash strategy came at a time when most teams didn’t adequately scout Euro players and so a team that invested more heavily could capture extra value.  I think those days are long past.  Now the stash aspect is still valuable but this is no longer a market where prime talent is any more likely to be missed than for US players.

This, Euros know the game now. The quality of stash players has severally dropped as many just return to improve their stock than fall to the 2nd round. Some are in terrible agent deals like Vernz and it hurts them in terms of trying to leave for the NBA. 

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To no one in particular...

I would add to what has just been said, and at least as significantly, is that the G-League as a development petri dish has come miles ahead of what it was 20 years ago when Ginobili began SAS' European pipeline.

And/but, while all of the above may be true, what is also true is math.

And math in the context of the CBA says that there is value to being able to hold rights to and develop players before the otherwise-obligatory contract clock starts. To the degree that you actually use that mechanism for supplementing your talent intake over the years, while you're not going to hit on every player, over time, you're going to end up benefiting over the others who don't.

It's analogous in my mind to saying that a person who has decided to avail him/herself of investments abroad stands a better chance of overall investment success over time than someone whose portfolio's scope is limited to domestic stocks and bonds.

Granted, you have to be discerning and judicious regardless. But as your next 3-4 years draft slot fate becomes more certain to fall in the lower third of the draft, there's more room for erring on the side of 18, 19, 20, and 21 year-old maybes... guys who are in those developmental years and who it's not irrational to believe can become solid pieces for the future... I think of a Vrenz Bleijenbergh this time, and if he'd stayed in the draft, certainly a Roko Prkacin.

Mind you, I don't come at this as-if some self-exhalted exceptional judge of talent. 

I'm just coming at it from a mere ordinary judge of talent, but also recognizing some of the practicalities of the talent market given the guardrails that everyone has to abide by.

 

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2 hours ago, AHF said:

One point that I think is relevant to this is the fact that SA’s big hits with the Euro stash strategy came at a time when most teams didn’t adequately scout Euro players and so a team that invested more heavily could capture extra value.  I think those days are long past.  Now the stash aspect is still valuable but this is no longer a market where prime talent is any more likely to be missed than for US players.

This and the advent of the G-League.   I have called for a G-League for a long time.   I hate seeing kids getting prostituted on college campuses. 

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3 minutes ago, Diesel said:

This and the advent of the G-League.   I have called for a G-League for a long time.   I hate seeing kids getting prostituted on college campuses. 

"B-b-but free education, dies.  Nevermind these billions we're making on the other side, boys." - NCAA

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9 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Hawks are targeting JaVale McGee

While you can get much less athletic bigs than McGee, I was sorta hoping for someone who can be plausibly an asset at both 5 and 4. If this bears out, this will be something of a "meh" off-season from my vantage point.... would rather have a stronger offensive asset than Wright, but okay... would rather have used the #20 differently, but okay... and this, the same, would rather have someone who, even after OO gets back, can get minutes as a PF. But. Okay.

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Just now, sturt said:

While you can get much less athletic bigs than McGee, I was sorta hoping for someone who can be plausibly an asset at both 5 and 4. If this bears out, this will be something of a "meh" off-season from my vantage point.... would rather have a stronger offensive asset than Wright, but okay... would rather have used the #20 differently, but okay... and this, the same, would rather have someone who, even after OO gets back, can get minutes as a PF. But. Okay.

I believe they like what they have at the 4 with JC and Gallo. Just my take. 

Oh, for those who care, Nathan Knight is coming back. I don't know if it's as a 2-way or as a long term contract but he's impressed enough people within to the point where he's highly likely to be back. 

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Just now, NBASupes said:

Nathan Knight is coming back.

But he's now an unrestricted free agent.... or do you have intel to the contrary?

So, it's an open question whether he would be back with us or with another team, and with Jalen Johnson being our pick, you'd have to suspect that if he gets others' interest, he's going to be smart to consider that.

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1 minute ago, sturt said:

But he's now an unrestricted free agent.... or do you have intel to the contrary?

So, it's an open question whether he would be back with us or with another team, and with Jalen Johnson being our pick, you'd have to suspect that if he gets others' interest, he's going to be smart to consider that.

I just gave you intel

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3 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I believe they like what they have at the 4 with JC and Gallo.

I believe that, too. But just from a practicality and efficiency stand point, once OO is back, it would be optimal to have someone you feel good about seeing the floor in both roles... not unlike it's good to have a 5th backcourt guy who is a viable option at either PG or SG, imo. (Yes, like, say, a LouWill.)

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hace 9 minutos, sturt dijo:

I believe that, too. But just from a practicality and efficiency stand point, once OO is back, it would be optimal to have someone you feel good about seeing the floor in both roles... not unlike it's good to have a 5th backcourt guy who is a viable option at either PG or SG, imo. (Yes, like, say, a LouWill.)

The only guy that can do that is Dieng.

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hace 33 minutos, NBASupes dijo:

The money is drained this year it seems. A lot of FAs but not a lot of money or roster spots. It's gonna be a lot of week 1 signings, especially today.

Thanks Supes, reading your last statement really makes me wonder who can give a max contract to Collins this season? Should we wait and match the best offer her gets as happened with Schröder or Josh Smith?

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Just now, gurpilo said:

Thanks Supes, reading your last statement really makes me wonder who can give a max contract to Collins this season? Should we wait and match the best offer her gets as happened with Schröder or Josh Smith?

I think the Spurs can do it.  And they need him desperately.

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40 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Breaking BUZZ!!!

Lakers are targeting a lot of vet role players including Hawks legend Tony Snell. They are targeting shooters and former stars like Hawks legend Carmelo Anthony. They are really hoping they can land Victor Oladipo. I am being told that Detroit also has interest in Dipo. They are targeting Tim Hardaway Jr badly.

Detroit who I already said is targeting Oladipo and THJ are also targeting bigs like Nerlens Noel. Detroit wants to win. They wanted to win last year and they want to win this year. 

Supes' inside game workin' this mornin', boys

200w.webp?cid=ecf05e47cqf4grovb5xi8gtyfw

Most interesting bit is the lOladipo stuff.  I thought, for sure, he'd have to sit a year or settle for a prove-it deal.

If he's got suitors, that tells me there's still a lotta dumb GM's gettin' paychecks.  Either that or maybe his name's being used to drive down teams' asking prices on trades.

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Hawks:

I cannot confirm BR report of Atlanta interest in Millsap. 

I can confirm MIN made several offers to Atlanta for Gallo and Atlanta declined which is why MIN went in a different direction and traded for T. Prince. Hollinger mentioned Gallo but he's not an option for MIN nor is Lauri for MIN. MIN is said to be looking for centers but I don't know who at this time. 

 

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9 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Supes' inside game workin' this mornin', boys

200w.webp?cid=ecf05e47cqf4grovb5xi8gtyfw

Most interesting bit is the lOladipo stuff.  I thought, for sure, he'd have to sit a year or settle for a prove-it deal.

If he's got suitors, that tells me there's still a lotta dumb GM's gettin' paychecks.  Either that or maybe his name's being used to drive down teams' asking prices on trades.

He doesn't have any suitors offering real money. He made a massive mistake turning down HOU offer. 

16 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I think the Spurs can do it.  And they need him desperately.

And made an extremely strong offer which is why JC got the money. If they didn't, we could have handled things our way. 

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