NBASupes Eastern Conference Projection Chart 2020-21

[NBASupes]

For @JTB, @marco102, @AHF and @JayBirdHawk as well as all Hawk fans: 

 

My chart on playoffs teams or teams in general is this:

1. Fit

2. Talent

3. System 

4. Star player, usually top impact guy

5. Depth

6. Experience - which is usually important BBIQ and execution, not that big of a deal for RS success.



Fit is the most critical piece to team building. You can have LeBron and still lose a lot without it.

Talent, you must have the talent. You don't have to have the best but you must have enough. The least talented team of all time considering the era of competition to win 60 games was the Hawks lead by Horford, Sap, Teague, Korver and DMC.

System is not critical like fit is but it's important. You must have a system, without one, you look like OKC where its player based. Guys with marginal talent or impact could severely struggle in this situation.

Usually your best player usually tells me where you are at especially in today's NBA. Just by that, I can project if you are underrated or overrated. While it's not as important as 1-3. It's still important, especially for the playoffs.

While depth is more important for the regular season than the playoffs, it's still has a level of importance. The better you are, the better your chances of winning RS games is for unit optimization.

Experience is the least important. Does it help yes especially in the playoffs. But for the RS, it's not that important outside of chemistry and execution. That's where experience is important. For the playoffs where execution is critical is where experience is most important.

 

1. Fit

2. Talent

3. System 

4. Star player/players, usually top impact guy and the other stars on your roster

5. Depth

6. Experience

Point Chart: 35 + 30 + 20 + 12 + 2 + 1

20 + 5 + 10 + 3 + 1+ 0

I changed my points system for the first time as no one will get a bulk on points unless they are elite at it. 

 

Notes: LA has overtaken Milwaukee as my best team with a 99% overall grade - Miami made the biggest jump going from 49% to 95% - Orlando dropped the most from last year - Atlanta was my biggest flop from a year ago - 

Added more details

1. Milwaukee 98% - They have everything needed to win a title but depth. The move to land Holiday who's a much better playoff player than he is a RS player. I don't think he's a big upgrade over Bledsoe in the RS but he is a massive one in the playoffs. They lost a lot of quality depth that helped in the RS but stunk in the playoffs. I am not sure they can do their rest management considering the amount of quality vets they lost. Matthews will hurt but Hill will hurt a lot more but mainly, MIL abandoned overly focusing on the RS to focus on the playoffs.  35 + 29 + 20 + 12 + 1 + 1 

2. Boston 95% - They are a 100% lock for the playoffs and have everything but the needed top tier depth but their depth is still solid. They are one of the team I expect to improve this upcoming year. Tristian Thompson move is underrated.  35 + 25 + 20 + 12 + 2 + 1

3. Heat 93% After I projected them to be a 10th seed type of team with DET and no Wall WAS last year at 49%. The moved up to 93%. Why? Bam made a massive jump to stardom. Butler was an even better fit. Dragic stayed heathy. Duncan Robinson emerged. I was right on Herro. Their fit, talent, offense, shooting, and defense skyrocketed. 35 + 25 + 20 +10 + 2 + 1

4. Toronto 81% - I missed on them because Lowry didn't regress at all and others stepped up as well as their depth was really good last year. Their fit worked extremely good as well. While their balanced like spread on a loaf of bread, their talent is what gets them. They just lack the talent to be a serious team in the East. They remind me of the Millsap Hawks but more talented. 35 + 15 + 20 + 8 + 2 + 1

5. Philly 75% - Ultimately, they have everything but they are low on fit and sadly for them, it's proven so this is not a let's see situation in Philly. That's their biggest question mark. If they can address this which it seems like they have improved to a degree, they could go to another level if they remain healthy. 15 + 30 + 15 + 12 + 2 + 1

6. Brooklyn 70% - They have elite talent and elite depth which matters in both the playoffs and RS since it's elite but fit and system are the question for these talented Nets. If the fit and system is also elite, this is the best team in the NBA. They have excellent fit on paper but paper is NOT proof. Not just the east. 15 + 30 + 10 + 12 + 2 + 1

7. Pacers 64% - They are a very talented team. Easily more talented on paper than Toronto. What hurts them is fit which is proven. They remind me of a better coached Woody era Hawks team with a better coach (McMillian). They hired a new coach to get the most out of their talented core. I ultimately think they will have to make a major trade at some point. 20 + 25 + 10 + 6 + 2 + 1

8. Orlando 63% - They got everything for the regular season like last year but my new metrics is harsh on them this year as they are middle of the pack and and last year awarded their ability to get the points. This year, they have to earn them. 25 + 15 + 15 + 6 + 1 + 1

9t. Atlanta 60% - Last year, I overrated them viciously because this was the biggest underachiever of 2019-2020, yes bigger than LAC because LAC did get to where I thought they could have issues. Last year, I hit on Trae success. Missed on damn near everyone else in the core but the depth, especially JC. I had him being a lot better than he was and I was wrong for that as I didn't realize teams would adjust so well to what he does well and expose his issue areas constantly. They fit extremely well on paper but paper is NOT proof. The talent is special and I don't need proof of the games to see that.  Coaching was WOAT last year while LP was excellent in a year 1 coach the year before but LP is on the hot seat for a reason. He will get a zero but I truly believe he can be a 20 this year. There are questions of who's the 2nd best player atm but this can quickly change as we saw with Miami last year. Depth is there. Experience is not. This is a team I think could win the east if things turn around because like Brooklyn, the talent is elite. We just need to see the fit and the system. 20 + 30 + 0 + 8 + 2 + 0

9t. Wizards 60% - My metrics likes them in 2020-21 a lot more than I do. It likes their system for their personnel. They do have ample talent. I would say above average in the east. Their defense is their biggest issue. They should be in the mix for the play-in game. I don't see a lot of potential considering the below average fit overall. The young players with talent don't exactly fit Beal or Westbrook. Beal is such a big reason for their rank.  15 + 20 + 15 + 8 + 1 + 1

11t. Chicago 42% - They are decent at 1-6 but not good at anything. They lost some depth but once again, decent in most areas out of fit. Coaching could see them improve a bit. 10 + 15 + 10 + 4 + 2 + 1

11t. Cavs 42% - Like last year, they could be good but health is the big issue with this team.  They added Drummond which is major. They still have depth but even better than last year. Now that Garland is in year 2, he should be much better. J.B. will have to build on that 6-6 record to end the season. 10 + 20 + 5 + 5 + 2 + 0

13. Hornets 39% - They caught a lot of people off guard last year but after Dec, they were easy food. This year they are rocking with a rookie PG and while Hayward gives them a solid #1 option, they are lacking in key metrics. My metrics hates rookie PG's who start. It also hated rookie Trae. My metrics sees the fit benefiting Melo and likes CHA fit on paper.  20 + 5 + 10 + 3 + 1+ 0

14.Pistons 37% - I gave Blake a 1 for star power and didn't see anyone with him for next year.  They aren't a lottery lock but they are pretty darn close. 15 + 5 + 16 + 1 + 0 + 0

15. Knicks 33% - R.J. and Obi is a nice start to the rebuild but the players around them simply don't fit that well.  They are getting a 10 on fit due to R.J. fitting Obi well which is all that matters. He also fits Robinson M. 10 + 10 + 10 + 2 + 1 + 0

Edited December 7, 2020 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

Q&A

Why are my metrics so high on Washington, Charlotte, and Orlando? WAS has a talented team with a legit star in Beal. My metrics liked what Brooks did last year considering the lack of experience. Charlotte, it thought the coach was average and it likes the fit of the team and it was the big reason they won last year with the worst talent in the NBA (now OKC is that team). Orlando is a balanced defensive minded consistent team my metrics as always loved. The change in the metrics seemed like it hurt them but it helped because they got a 15 talent instead of zero. 

Why are my metrics so low on Atlanta, Brooklyn, and Philly? My metrics aren't really that low on any of these teams. Brooklyn, has excellent fit on paper but paper is NOT proof. All it can give is a 20 max because the chemistry is so low. What kills Philly is fit, that's usually what always been killing them because the talent is elite. These three teams are the most talented teams in the East top to bottom. No one has two top ten talents like Philly with Harris on the team. No one outside of MIL has a top 5 player in the NBA outside of Brooklyn in the east with Kyrie as well. No one has the depth in talent like Atlanta with a young superstar in Young.

What kills Atlanta is coaching. LP was the worst coach in the NBA by a mile and is deservedly on the hot seat. He showed tremendous talent and potential in year but was unpolished. Last year, he took a major stepback like year 2 Tyreke Evans. Is he a coach version of Tyreke Evans or is he a young Doc Rivers? We have to see. It's been awhile since someone has gotten a zero in coaching but this year we got a zero in LP and a 5 in J.B. Bickerstaff/Luke Walton. Both must improve, especially Bill who hasn't showed the potential or talent since Golden State as a lead asst. J.B. is learning. He is talented and has the ability to be an excellent coach down the road  since I am glad he's finally learning the ropes. Patience is key to developing coaches but they gotta want to be great as well. 

How good are your metrics? Decent. It doesn't predict the future well. Because I didn't value Bam, it didn't value Bam. Because I didn't know Duncan, it didn't know Duncan. Just decent. Nothing sound. Just a fun read. 

[NBASupes]

Last year's chart: 

1. Milwaukee 100%
2. Philly 95%
3. Boston 90% 
4. Orlando 70%
5. Brooklyn 55%
6. Atlanta 55%
7t. Chicago 50% 
7t. Toronto 50%

7t. Pacers 50%
10t. Heat 49%
10t. Pistons 49% 
10t. Wizards 49% 
13. Knicks 2% 
14. Cavs 1%
15. Hornets 0% 

 

Quote

Last year's - Shocked and surprises

East only

1. Milwaukee -

1. Shocked if Giannis isn't even better at shooting and passing.

2. Shocked if Coach Bud can start rest management.

3. Shocked if Eric Bledsoe is not at least a decent open shooter this upcoming season.

1. Surprised if Donte D can fully replace Malcolm Brogdon

2. Surprised if Coach Bud is willing to adjust in the playoffs like Coach Nurse.

3. Surprised if Middleton improves from his banner year in 18-19.

2. Philly -

1. Shocked if Ben Simmons isn't a better shooter this upcoming season. I just can't see him being that bad again.

2. Shocked if Tobias Harris isn't an ideal fit this upcoming season w/ Al Horford and Josh Richardson on board.

3. Shocked if Zhaire Smith isn't an impact player off the bench.

1. Surprised if Embiid can stay fairly healthy with his style of play.

2. Surprised if they can shoot well enough to be a real championship force in the playoffs.

3. Surprised if Coach Brown can get back to the same defense that Coach Pierce implemented the season before.

3. Boston -

1. Shocked if Kemba isn't a perfect fit in Stevens' system.

2. Shocked if Tatum doesn't take a jump as a legit #2 option in year 3.

3. Shocked if Grant Williams doesn't have success as a rookie for Boston

1. Surprised if Boston has real playoff success with that frontcourt.

2. Surprised if Jaylen Brown makes a massive jump. I think he can make a major jump but a massive one, I don't see it like I do with Tatum and Walker.

3. Surprised if their defense can be top notch without Horford.

4. Orlando -


1. Shocked if Bamba and Fultz doesn't make a major jump

2. Shocked if they did not build on their 2nd half of season in 2019.

3. Shocked if Vucevic doesn't build upon his success in 2019

1. Surprised if Evan improves in 2019-20.

2. Surprised if Fultz starts over Augustin in 2019-20

3. Surprised if they become more than a pretender.

5. Brooklyn -

1. Shocked if Kyrie isn't more motivated in 2019-20 than last year.

2. Shocked if LeVert and Prince don't improve this season and more shocked if the offense isn't better this upcoming season.

3. Shocked if Durant plays in 19-20.

1. Surprised if their system effectiveness improves after the offseason moves for 19-20.

2. Surprised if Coach Atkinson will enjoy 2019-20 as much as 2018-19

3. Surprised if they defend better this year.

6. Atlanta -

1. Shocked if Trae Young does not improve on his post all star break success. I expect better shooting, better defense, more communication and building upon his skill-set.

2. Shocked if Jabari Parker doesn't build onto his 6th man success with the Wizards on the Hawks.

3. Shocked if Cam Reddish is less than a perfect fit with the starting 5. Cam has everything to be an instant performer with our core on offense. He will be a great perimeter defender as a rookie with any team.

1. Surprised if De'Andre Hunter is ready offensively on the wing by mid December. I have him as a player who won't be ready offensively to be consistently on the wing till next season. If he can make the growth like Kevin H did, he could exceed my expectation.

2. Surprised if Alex Len could played solid defense this season.

3. Surprised if John Collins meets his expected defensive value in 2019-2020. I strongly feel his expected defensive value is highly unlikely but if he can meet it, WOW!

7t. Chicago -

1. Shocked if they aren't one of the more improved teams in 2019-20.

2. Shocked if Otto Porter Jr doesn't get some AS recognition.

3. Shocked if Coach Boylen doesn't put his mark on this squad.

1. Surprised if Lauri and WCJ fit

2. Surprised if Kris Dunn finish the season as the starting PG.

3. Surprised if Kris Dunn improves with the Bulls. He just isn't a fit and it's not the right role for him at this stage.

7t. Toronto -

1. Shocked if Siakam doesn't improve.

2. Shocked if Coach Nurse doesn't coach his ass off this year.

3. Shocked if Masai doesn't make his stamp on this squad.

1. Surprised if Lowry and Gasol play at the same level as 2018-19. Expecting major regression.

2. Surprised if FVF becomes more consistent.

3. Surprised if chemistry drops. I do see this team as one of the most stable in terms of leadership and focus.

7t. Pacers -

1. Shocked if T.J. Leaf doesn't take a leap.

2. Shocked if Aaron Holiday isn't the starting PG come the playoffs if they make it.

3. Shocked if Dipo comes back sooner than Jan with his type of game.

1. Surprised if Turner and Sabonis fit

2. Surprised if they can have a winning record without Dipo

3. Surprised if Brogdon can play the point at an effective level.

10t. Heat -

1. Shocked if Herro doesn't play a major role for 2019-20.

2. Shocked if Butler doesn't fit the Miami team culture.

3. Shocked if Coach Spo can't get this squad to .500 ball

1. Surprised if Bam lives up to the hype

2. Surprised if they don't feel the lost of Whiteside

3. Surprised if Miami isn't looking for a PG by December.

10t. Pistons -

1. Shocked if Griffin doesn't build on his success in 18-19.

2. Shocked if Reggie Jackson doesn't have a good year for his standards since it's his contract year.

3. Shocked if youngins don't make big leaps, Coach Casey is one of the better player development coaches in the NBA. Plus they got a new falicity.

1. Surprised if Griffin is healthy

2. Surprised if Drummond becomes more verstiale. I strongly feel his a net nuertal player which isn't worth more than 10 mil in this market at his position. He is killing DET potential.

3. Surprised if they could stay healthy. A lot of injury prone guys on this squad. Seriousness from the players is always a question for me. Some teams you just wonder if they really want to be here. This is one of them.

10t. Wizards -

1. Shocked if Bradley Beal doesn't jump into superstardom. Kyrie Irving respect level.

2. Shocked if Rui isn't the Donovan Mitchell of his class. I think Rui in this system can take a major jump.

3. Shocked if Coach Brooks don't get his respect back. This team has potential. Ish Smith is the perfect comp with Beal being the primary.

1. Surprised if Griffin is healthy

2. Surprised if Isaiah Thomas is decent. If he could even be an effective 6th man, he would have suppassed my expectations.

3. Surprised if their depth is better than the 2nd half of the season last year. I can see them regressing on that end, AGAIN.

13. Knicks -

1. Shocked if R.J. doesn't have the best offensive raw numbers of all rookies.

2. Shocked if Morris isn't a fit

3. Shocked if they end the season in a worse place than they came into 2019-2020 in. They need to start Frank with R.J.

1. Surprised if they can figure the rotation out.

2. Surprised if they win more than 25 games.

3. Surprised if they are a top 20 shooting squad.

14. Cavs -

1. Shocked if Sexton doesn't build on his 2nd half success in 18-19.

2. Shocked if their not a top 10 bench unit.

3. Shocked if Garland doesn't flash a lot of quality in the 2nd half of the season in 2020.

1. Surprised if Love and TT is healthy

2. Surprised if build onto this squad and not tear it apart.

3. Surprised if Beilen has year 1 success. I am not expecting much but small victories. The NBA is a hard adjustment.

15. Hornets -

1. Shocked if Miles Bridges doesn't take on a bigger role in 2019-20.

2. Shocked if MJ/Mitch sits on his roster if a good trade is offered.

3. Shocked if they are patient with Rozier

1. Surprised if Rozier is effective

2. Surprised if they have expectations more than 15 wins

3. Surprised if they perform at their expected levels.

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

 

Why my metrics flopped so hard with Miami and Atlanta last year? 

Miami - 1. Bam 2. Duncan, 3. Dragic's health, and  4. their mid-season trades were excellent. 

This was my opinion about the Hawks going into last year: FYI: Year 1 LP going into Year 2 would have earned a 17 overall grade on the new metrics. 

Quote

 

Hawks got everything you need to win games. They have great system fit. Anytime Collins was on floor, the Hawks were 8th in the NBA with ORTG. Trae Young who had a -5.9 BPM before ASB dragged by his November and early December woes and time without Collins had a .4 BPM and was posting top 15 player post all star offensive numbers leading his team PACE to a blistering 105.38. From what I've seen, I am expecting Trae to have a big jump from his 2nd half of the season which he showed defensive communication, he was our top perimeter player in terms of shot contest post ASB, decision making in the half court, picking his spots better, you know, the typical things players improve on in year 2. Add better shooting metrics, he shot 34.8% post ASB on 7 3s a game and playing 36 mpg which is 3 ticks up from 33.1mpg he played post asb as mentioned by LP.

I have them winning 44 games min as long as those three (Kevin, Trae, and John) are healthy. Offensively, they are too good. They project out as a top 5 offense by all of my projections. Of all top 5 offenses in the NBA. In the last five years, only one missed the playoffs Denver Nuggets in Jokic 2nd season and of the teams with a top five ORTG and bottom ten DRTG which if the rookies can't fix, is looking like the path for Atlanta.

Minny Wolves last year - 47-35
16/17 Nuggets - 40-42
14/15 Toronto Raptors 49 33
Cleveland Cavaliers last year 50 32
Cleveland Cavaliers 16/17 51 31

When you have top 12 post all star break numbers like Trae Young as a rookie and you have a season ORTG which is 6th in the NBA like John Collins, it makes you extremely difficult to beat as Atlanta has pace and momentum figured out. Kevin H is more of Mike Miller type. Not as skilled, not as versatile but a better young shooter, with great range and is a great decision maker on the ball. He took a leap every two months. He was shooting 5.2 threes after ASG. He just continued to take leaps on both ends of the court. A great fit and a system fit.

Talent wise, how many teams are as talented as the Hawks? Two exceptionally high end offensive talents. Two high end overall talents in Hunter and Reddish. One of the better role playing wings in Kevin Huerter who had a top 20 season for a SG by most metrics and kept improving after ASB. Hawks had the 8th highest ORTG with John Collins on the court. Without John Collins. 29th. Obviously, the Hawks had massive issues with backup PF's. Poythress and Humprhies were horrendous, other replacements or players at the 4 was a disaster and VC while effective at times is still 42 years old. He can only play so many mins without hurting the team.

They have a tremendous system. It showcases the guards and wings playmaking, turns most of the bigs into PnR/PnP guys and Trae is the ultimate driving machine in terms of controlling pace. When you have a team that fits, they have a great system and they have a lot of talent especially in 2019-2020. I really don't see how the sky isn't the limit with this team.
 

 

 

As far as depth, they have improved the backup PG position from Jaylen Adams to Evan Turner. Evan is probably not going to like it but he is basically a 12-15 mpg player moving forward.

They didn't have a 6th man last year or a PF and added Jabari Parker. A player who as a 7th man showed that he is a tier below M. Harrell. It will be interesting to see how he does in moreso the 7th man role in our system. Parker was horrific as a starting PF and should always be a 7th man but this is value we didn't have last year. We didn't have a backup PF at all. Nique stated this about Parker. I am not as optimistic.

“He going to surprise a lot of people. People don’t really know how good this kid is,” said Wilkins. “This kid can play. I mean plain and simple, Jabari Parker has talent. I think you’re going to see an amazing young player.”

I see a team that has 1-4. Fit, talent, system and a star player in Trae Young. So I am higher on the Hawks. I was higher on the Kings last year for similar reasons. I am higher on the Kings again for similar reasons. I based all of my measures off of this system. It's the only system that tends to match my eye test. I watch a lot of teams via LP. I have a good fit for most of the league. Teams I don't have as good of a feel for is PHX, new OKC and SA. Other than those three. I do.

 

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

I will tell you all why none of us should put too much stock into projections this year: 

With the exception of Trae, all of our core had a shit 2019-20 season. JC going into 19-20 was projected to be joining Trae as an all star if not the lone all star. His impact went to shit considering the expectation. Truth is, LP called this. He said team's would adjust to the PnR and damnit, he was right. His WAR went from 5.1 to a 1.7. A player who had top 8 impact on this offense in the entire league went from that barely cracking the top 25. Kevin who before the season was getting Bradley Beal and Klay Thompson comps from NBA twitter ended the year with a 0.0 WAR and his WAR when starting with Trae has never been higher than 0. While they clearly fit offensively, they clearly don't on defense and take away the good from one end to the other. No one hurt their rep move than Kevin outside of Hunter and LP. 

The bench was horrendous. The rookies were insanely bad via metrics. Cam was on a path to have the worst NBA season recorded then hit forward and became the 2nd most impactful Hawk from JAN on. Hunter struggled from JAN on for defense. Ended the year with a -1.1 WAR. Considering the mins he played, saying he struggled was an understatement. Still, the talent level they showed was ample, especially Cam. 

Capela 1st half of his season was great but the 2nd half playing with the injury was awful outside of rim protection. It was no surprise why HOU moved him considering their lack of patience. Gallo was the 2nd best Hawk by a mile but he's expected to be a backup 4, that's not a starter and that's 24-27 mpg. Rondo metrics are meh in the RS but then again, the Lakers bench wasn't much outside of Kuz and Caruso. Dunn adds to the bench. Snell does too. Bogi is obviously the gem metrics wise but he doesn't add that much to the Hawks other than eliminating Kevin, Cam, or Hunter. We still show major gaps metrics wise. 

Here is what we know: 

Extremely talented. 

Extremely deep

We have four starters for sure. 

We think we have two stud wings although the metrics don't like either. 

Metrics think Capela is good but that's it. 

Same for Bogi. 

The only player the metrics really like is Gallo. 

Honestly, we are likely going to be a great team but that will be due to the unknown more than the know. 

[gurpilo]

Sure we are the biggest question mark on the season.

We will improve for sure because Capela, Gallinari and Bogdanovic are going to have a positive impact on the team. I think there are some small chances Bogie fails to find his role but I think he has the tools, experience and intelligence to find his touch here. 

Only with those additions we should be 10 wins better.

One of the biggest question mark is Collins fit with Capela in my opinion. Collins need to step up, improving in defense, and reading better the game, he needs to involve the rest of his mates instead of playing 2vs2 game. He is going to get a lot of touches, is extremely important he can find the best play on each situation, I really hope Capela does not impact Collins game so that he ends floating on the 3pt line trying to find his touch.

Another questionmark for me is Rondo, he could be a positive addition... or he could be a real negative one, I am concerned about the chemistry with Young and his impact on regular season. He must think a lot about how to approach Trae to be a mentor, pretending been smarter or better than you are or underestimating Trae’s game might be the wrong approach and I think Rondo is fully capable of taking that approach from what I have heard from him.

Next questionmark is Cam, Hunter and Huerter development. We need them to have positive impact on the game. They were really terrible last year, I am confident on Cam second half but he seems to have confidence lapses, not the strongest mind. If he starts slow again it could be hard for him to overcome that situation, he is not going to have all the minutes he can handle. Hunter, I hope he can improve to be at least decent, with better players surrounding him I think he can get it, ceiling I think is limited. Huerter would only be useful if he is surrounded properly in the 2nd unit, defense is going to be an issue but I think a 2nd unit of Dunn, Huerter, Hunter, Gallo and Okongwu might work properly. But I think we will see a 2nd unit of Rondo, Huerter, Cam, Gallo and Bruno and I am not so convinced that group will work well. 

Last questionmark for me is backup Center, I have serious doubts that Bruno and Okongwu can play efficiently this season, we might have a serious hole there.

Well, I have another questionmark, or should I call it fear, backup PG, I am convinced we have the right Backup PG in Dunn, I am not convinced Rondo will have a positive impact on the team, due to his lack of interest on the regular season, his bad defense on RS, he will probably underestimate the team and will try to do too much. I need to see him on the court to believe he is positive for he team. The question here is who is our backup PG, Dunn or Rondo?

A lot of doubts to be solved, I cannot wait till regular season starts. As likely as I see that things fit and we make the playoff is important to realize that everything might fit the wrong way and we could fail miserably 

[NBASupes]

A1 post @gurpilo. I think we can potentially win the east and could shock the world and get 1st place in the regular season but so much is unknown. I felt more confident about the team last year at this point because we saw our core playing extremely promising. 

[thecampster]

17 hours ago, NBASupes said:

1. Milwaukee 98% - They have everything needed to win a title but depth. The move to land Holiday who's a much better playoff player than he is a RS player. I don't think he's a big upgrade over Bledsoe in the RS but he is a massive one in the playoffs. They lost a lot of quality depth that helped in the RS but stunk in the playoffs. I am not sure they can do their rest management considering the amount of quality vets they lost. Matthews will hurt but Hill will hurt a lot more but mainly, MIL abandoned overly focusing on the RS to focus on the playoffs.  35 + 29 + 20 + 12 + 1 + 1 

2. Boston 95% - They are a 100% lock for the playoffs and have everything but the needed top tier depth but their depth is still solid. They are one of the team I expect to improve this upcoming year. Tristian Thompson move is underrated.  35 + 25 + 20 + 12 + 2 + 1

3. Heat 93% After I projected them to be a 10th seed type of team with DET and no Wall WAS last year at 49%. The moved up to 93%. Why? Bam made a massive jump to stardom. Butler was an even better fit. Dragic stayed heathy. Duncan Robinson emerged. I was right on Herro. Their fit, talent, offense, shooting, and defense skyrocketed. 35 + 25 + 20 +10 + 2 + 1

4. Toronto 81% - I missed on them because Lowry didn't regress at all and others stepped up as well as their depth was really good last year. Their fit worked extremely good as well. While their balanced like spread on a loaf of bread, their talent is what gets them. They just lack the talent to be a serious team in the East. They remind me of the Millsap Hawks but more talented. 35 + 15 + 20 + 8 + 2 + 1

5. Philly 75% - Ultimately, they have everything but they are low on fit and sadly for them, it's proven so this is not a let's see situation in Philly. That's their biggest question mark. If they can address this which it seems like they have improved to a degree, they could go to another level if they remain healthy. 15 + 30 + 15 + 12 + 2 + 1

6. Brooklyn 70% - They have elite talent and elite depth which matters in both the playoffs and RS since it's elite but fit and system are the question for these talented Nets. If the fit and system is also elite, this is the best team in the NBA. They have excellent fit on paper but paper is NOT proof. Not just the east. 15 + 30 + 10 + 12 + 2 + 1

7. Pacers 64% - They are a very talented team. Easily more talented on paper than Toronto. What hurts them is fit which is proven. They remind me of a better coached Woody era Hawks team with a better coach (McMillian). They hired a new coach to get the most out of their talented core. I ultimately think they will have to make a major trade at some point. 20 + 25 + 10 + 6 + 2 + 1

8. Orlando 63% - They got everything for the regular season like last year but my new metrics is harsh on them this year as they are middle of the pack and and last year awarded their ability to get the points. This year, they have to earn them. 25 + 15 + 15 + 6 + 1 + 1

9t. Atlanta 60% - Last year, I overrated them viciously because this was the biggest underachiever of 2019-2020, yes bigger than LAC because LAC did get to where I thought they could have issues. Last year, I hit on Trae success. Missed on damn near everyone else in the core but the depth, especially JC. I had him being a lot better than he was and I was wrong for that as I didn't realize teams would adjust so well to what he does well and expose his issue areas constantly. They fit extremely well on paper but paper is NOT proof. The talent is special and I don't need proof of the games to see that.  Coaching was WOAT last year while LP was excellent in a year 1 coach the year before but LP is on the hot seat for a reason. He will get a zero but I truly believe he can be a 20 this year. There are questions of who's the 2nd best player atm but this can quickly change as we saw with Miami last year. Depth is there. Experience is not. This is a team I think could win the east if things turn around because like Brooklyn, the talent is elite. We just need to see the fit and the system. 20 + 30 + 0 + 8 + 2 + 0

9t. Wizards 60% - My metrics likes them in 2020-21 a lot more than I do. It likes their system for their personnel. They do have ample talent. I would say above average in the east. Their defense is their biggest issue. They should be in the mix for the play-in game. I don't see a lot of potential considering the below average fit overall. The young players with talent don't exactly fit Beal or Westbrook. Beal is such a big reason for their rank.  15 + 20 + 15 + 8 + 1 + 1

11t. Chicago 42% - They are decent at 1-6 but not good at anything. They lost some depth but once again, decent in most areas out of fit. Coaching could see them improve a bit. 10 + 15 + 10 + 4 + 2 + 1

11t. Cavs 42% - Like last year, they could be good but health is the big issue with this team.  They added Drummond which is major. They still have depth but even better than last year. Now that Garland is in year 2, he should be much better. J.B. will have to build on that 6-6 record to end the season. 10 + 20 + 5 + 5 + 2 + 0

13. Hornets 39% - They caught a lot of people off guard last year but after Dec, they were easy food. This year they are rocking with a rookie PG and while Hayward gives them a solid #1 option, they are lacking in key metrics. My metrics hates rookie PG's who start. It also hated rookie Trae. My metrics sees the fit benefiting Melo and likes CHA fit on paper.  20 + 5 + 10 + 3 + 1+ 0

14.Pistons 37% - I gave Blake a 1 for star power and didn't see anyone with him for next year.  They aren't a lottery lock but they are pretty darn close. 15 + 5 + 16 + 1 + 0 + 0

15. Knicks 33% - R.J. and Obi is a nice start to the rebuild but the players around them simply don't fit that well.  They are getting a 10 on fit due to R.J. fitting Obi well which is all that matters. He also fits Robinson M. 10 + 10 + 10 + 2 + 1 + 0

Hard to argue too much with any of this but Boston is overvalued for sure. Boston is going to come in closer to 6 (imho). I agree Philly is going to be very good and would bump them up to 2 or 3.  The question mark team for me is Milwaukee. They are one Giannis injury from not making the playoffs. I love Holiday's game but I don't necessarily see the assembled pieces there as a good fit. They may fall to 4 for me. Brooklyn is all about health. I expect a relatively slow start there but could see them being the top team in the East by the end. Back to Boston...they have lived off a weak East in past years. That isn't there this year. A strong East could cost them 5-10 wins off of last year. The loss of Hayward is no small matter. I see them taking a firm step back. I don't see Orlando. They aren't "better" but the East is.

For Atlanta - Put Collins in for the games he missed and we win 3-6 more games. Add Capela all of last year and we win another 5. Cam and Hunter were not good to start the season, Cam woefully so. Get end of season Cam/Hunter for the full year and you win at least 3 more. BB would be good for 2 more (maybe), Gali 2 more. Dunn/Rondo another 3-5 total.  So if this was the roster last year I see 16-21 more wins at least.  That would have changed the record from 36-36 to 41-36. this would have been good for 6-7th in the East. I think this is reasonable for the Hawks.

Note: if you give Atlanta 16-21 more wins, some of those wins take wins away/add losses to Eastern Conference opponents. IMHO, this roster would have been good for the 6th seed last year at least.

[gurpilo]

I would add another questionmark that is coaching, I cannot believe I forgot about this. I am not sold on his ability to coach a playoff team, I am not worried about offense but defense is a real concern for me. We performed really poorly last year and all I hear were excuses from LP. He had some decent pieces to play defense and the performance was really bad.

I think McMilan move is flying under the radar, is a clear indication that Travis is not fully sold on LP.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

Hard to argue too much with any of this but Boston is overvalued for sure. Boston is going to come in closer to 6 (imho). I agree Philly is going to be very good and would bump them up to 2 or 3.  The question mark team for me is Milwaukee. They are one Giannis injury from not making the playoffs. I love Holiday's game but I don't necessarily see the assembled pieces there as a good fit. They may fall to 4 for me. Brooklyn is all about health. I expect a relatively slow start there but could see them being the top team in the East by the end. Back to Boston...they have lived off a weak East in past years. That isn't there this year. A strong East could cost them 5-10 wins off of last year. The loss of Hayward is no small matter. I see them taking a firm step back. I don't see Orlando. They aren't "better" but the East is.

For Atlanta - Put Collins in for the games he missed and we win 3-6 more games. Add Capela all of last year and we win another 5. Cam and Hunter were not good to start the season, Cam woefully so. Get end of season Cam/Hunter for the full year and you win at least 3 more. BB would be good for 2 more (maybe), Gali 2 more. Dunn/Rondo another 3-5 total.  So if this was the roster last year I see 16-21 more wins at least.  That would have changed the record from 36-36 to 41-36. this would have been good for 6-7th in the East. I think this is reasonable for the Hawks.

Note: if you give Atlanta 16-21 more wins, some of those wins take wins away/add losses to Eastern Conference opponents. IMHO, this roster would have been good for the 6th seed last year at least.

I've always thought an 'unsuspended' Collins and a healthy Huerter would have changed the Hawks trajectory. It caused a trickle down effect across the roster that was just too big to overcome.  I think Hunter would have had an easier transition with his role sandwiched between Huerter and Collins who could actually help him with LPs playbook vs being played between Cam and Parker, both new to the team, one a rookie and the other not very good.  Collins ability to also play Center would have also limited seeing so much of Damian Jones as well.  

[gurpilo]

Well that is another questionmark, injuries, that is going to be huge this year, high influence with a condensed calendar. There are players with high influence if they go down, Trae and Capela are the worst injuries we can have, Bogdanovic joins the group as well. But we have good depth to overcome injury impact. 

Capela’s replacement is a huge drop on performance, same for Trae. Reasons are different, low quality at backup Center and the other is Trae is too good to be replaced, you cannot replace a star. 

Other than that Bogdanovic is the only vet wing we have, probably losing him would imply a performance drop if Cam and Hunter are still not ready.

Losing Collins, Hunter, Huerter, Rondo, even Cam should be managed by our depth.

[bird_dirt]

I get the feeling Supes often has long conversations with himself. 

[NBASupes]

30 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

I get the feeling Supes often has long conversations with himself. 

Um, I do a lot research in my head but then I put it on paper if that's what you mean. 

Here is what i do. I am naturally optimistic but that's the fan side of me for life. Then there me that makes money, takes care of my family, and runs businesses. I have to be realistic there. 

The fan side of me sees this easily working and 50 wins should come. The realistic side of me that manages businesses and workers has to be realistic. I have to use to data for what it is and put the possibilities of what it could be. That's what I did here. I am not down on Atlanta or Brooklyn like I wasn't down on Miami last year but I didn't have proof that Bam would be an star. I didn't have proof that Duncan Robinson would emerge. I didn't have proof that the team would have elite fit although I thought they fit extremely well on paper. The only proof I have is Jimmy Butler when a top option for touches is an extremely productive player.

[NBASupes]

6 hours ago, thecampster said:

Hard to argue too much with any of this but Boston is overvalued for sure. Boston is going to come in closer to 6 (imho). I agree Philly is going to be very good and would bump them up to 2 or 3.  The question mark team for me is Milwaukee. They are one Giannis injury from not making the playoffs. I love Holiday's game but I don't necessarily see the assembled pieces there as a good fit. They may fall to 4 for me. Brooklyn is all about health. I expect a relatively slow start there but could see them being the top team in the East by the end. Back to Boston...they have lived off a weak East in past years. That isn't there this year. A strong East could cost them 5-10 wins off of last year. The loss of Hayward is no small matter. I see them taking a firm step back. I don't see Orlando. They aren't "better" but the East is.

For Atlanta - Put Collins in for the games he missed and we win 3-6 more games. Add Capela all of last year and we win another 5. Cam and Hunter were not good to start the season, Cam woefully so. Get end of season Cam/Hunter for the full year and you win at least 3 more. BB would be good for 2 more (maybe), Gali 2 more. Dunn/Rondo another 3-5 total.  So if this was the roster last year I see 16-21 more wins at least.  That would have changed the record from 36-36 to 41-36. this would have been good for 6-7th in the East. I think this is reasonable for the Hawks.

Note: if you give Atlanta 16-21 more wins, some of those wins take wins away/add losses to Eastern Conference opponents. IMHO, this roster would have been good for the 6th seed last year at least.

I like. I did what I wanted to do for Cam like I did for Trae but ultimately, he didn't show as much impact as Gallo but did as Bogi. He missed a number of games in that stretch unlike Trae and it makes my projections rated iffy on him compared to what I thought it would be better that.

Hunter, I just used the season ones. I honestly think Capela underwhelmed in metrics and I didn't track his 1st half because he played through the injury. It's hard to measure. 

[thecampster]

51 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I like. I did what I wanted to do for Cam like I did for Trae but ultimately, he didn't show as much impact as Gallo but did as Bogi. He missed a number of games in that stretch unlike Trae and it makes my projections rated iffy on him compared to what I thought it would be better that.

Hunter, I just used the season ones. I honestly think Capela underwhelmed in metrics and I didn't track his 1st half because he played through the injury. It's hard to measure. 

This!

[Gray Mule]

NBASupes:  It's fine if you talk to yourself.  In fact, it's really fine.

Also, it's fine if you ask yourself a question, then answer it.  This is grand.

However, if you talk to yourself, then turn around and say, "What did you just say?"  Then we worry!

[NBASupes]

5 hours ago, Gray Mule said:

NBASupes:  It's fine if you talk to yourself.  In fact, it's really fine.

Also, it's fine if you ask yourself a question, then answer it.  This is grand.

However, if you talk to yourself, then turn around and say, "What did you just say?"  Then we worry!

[NBASupes]

Two games in, we are seeing my teams I like shine in Cleveland, Atlanta, and Brooklyn. All three are benefiting from coaching being miles better than last year, fit being better, and talent being worth it. Now Cleveland likely won't finish in the playoffs but if they can be a play-in team, that's a major win. 

Teams that have regressed: Miami due to Jimmy's regression, Lowry's and FVF regression with Toronto, I personally read Washington like a book. I knew they were going to struggle with my own eyes. Now, these teams could just be in for short regression and be back good soon but Toronto and Washington worries me. 

Orlando and Indy did not surprise me. There is value to fit in a shorter condense season. 

[REHawksFan]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

Two games in, we are seeing my teams I like shine in Cleveland, Atlanta, and Brooklyn. All three are benefiting from coaching being miles better than last year, fit being better, and talent being worth it. Now Cleveland likely won't finish in the playoffs but if they can be a play-in team, that's a major win. 

Teams that have regressed: Miami due to Jimmy's regression, Lowry's and FVF regression with Toronto, I personally read Washington like a book. I knew they were going to struggle with my own eyes. Now, these teams could just be in for short regression and be back good soon but Toronto and Washington worries me. 

Orlando and Indy did not surprise me. There is value to fit in a shorter condense season. 

Wait wut?  Am I imagining you ranking Bklyn 6th, Atl 9th, and Clev 11th in the East? How you now sayin those are the teams you liked? 

 

[HawkingAwesome]

damn man out here inventing homework good work