2020-21 Official Predictions Thread

[AHF]

2 hours ago, hazer said:

@AHF confuses us ALL with this stat every year

It is in there because it is a harder metric to tie on than "how many All-Stars" or "who will be our leading scorer or rebounder" (which this year I thought was sufficiently predictable so as to not hold much vale as a tiebreaker), etc.  Notionally, it is driven by the Pythagorean Wins concept where the idea is that the number of points we score and our opponents score over the course of a season project to a record.  Basketball Reference calls this "Expected W/L".  The formula is below:

• W Pyth - Pythagorean Wins; the formula is G * (Tm PTS¹⁴ / (Tm PTS¹⁴ + Opp PTS¹⁴)). The formula was obtained by fitting a logistic regression model with log(Tm PTS / Opp PTS) as the explanatory variable. Using this formula for all BAA, NBA, and ABA seasons, the root mean-square error (rmse) is 3.14 wins. Using an exponent of 16.5 (a common choice), the rmse is 3.48 wins. (Note: An exponent of 10 is used for the WNBA.)

[NBASupes]

We are a ways away considering what I've seen so far. I can confidently that we have the most talented overall roster after the Lakers. 

Based on what I've seen this preseason: 

Atlanta Hawks - Mid level playoff team with potential to be special. LP has been looking very good in both preseason games. 
The rest of the squad has been shaky otherwise.  

Boston Celtics - NA

Brooklyn Nets - Top tier playoff team with defensive and fit questions

Charlotte Hornets - Exciting team fighting for the play-in game

Chicago Bulls - Talented squad who doesn't fit like usual. Likely a non-playoff contender.

Cleveland Cavaliers - Very deep squad with an interesting squad if healthy. Play-in contender

Dallas Mavericks - Elite depth, Elite system and a MVP favorite to boot. Possibly a 1st overall seed.

Denver Nuggets - They are trying to figure out how to mix some guys together but Jokic looks like a MVP contender. 

Detroit Pistons - They haven't looked good all preseason. The worst team overall to me. 

Golden State Warriors - They have looked great so far. Kerr is having fun and the depth is solid. Should be a top tier playoff

team. 

Houston Rockets - They have average depth which is a massive upgrade for this squad. Interesting to see how Harden plays. 

Indiana Pacers - They haven't looked good yet to be honest. They have players but Oladipo is a ? and their system isn't fluid

like last year. Could be the big faller. A lot of question marks and coaching is now one. 

Los Angeles Clippers - They look good outside of depth which is usually their big strength. Their starting lineup looks more 

cohesive already. Ibaka is a massive fit upgrade and I like how Lue is using their personnel. Harrell's lost hurts. 

Los Angeles Lakers - They look like the best team in the NBA when you consider LeBron and AD will be coming. 

Their depth is legit elite and they have the starters. Rob had an elite offseason with THT improvement, Harrell coming. 

I do question their starting lineup fit but they have two perfect fits where you need them most, your 2 best players. 

Memphis Grizzlies - They look like the best team to their expectations I've seen this preseason. They fit as they did last yr.

They just got year 2 Morant who looks like a rising superstar. He's looking like he's 3rd year D-Rose this preseason. 

They should be a mid tier playoff team with a chance to be special.  

Miami Heat - Without Butler, they aren't the same team. With Butler and Bam, they tend to be special.

Milwaukee Bucks - Dallas been whooping them especially the bench which is the biggest ? 

Their lack of depth should hurt them. I would be surprised if they won the east just based on what I seen this preseason. 

Brooklyn looks better. Then you got teams with exceptional potential like Atlanta. In a 82 game season, this team would still

be my favorites to win the east but in this speedy season, depth is critical and they lack it. Still a legit playoff team. 

Minnesota Timberwolves - Another awful team like DET but at least they have talent. 

I think Culver shown enough to start over Okogie. Okogie is too small to be a SF. They need a PF BAD who can defend like a 5.

New Orleans Pelicans - Hard to say, their defense doesn't look good, I see limited potential especially w/o Favors. 

Offensively, my goodness, this team will be a matchup nightmare and they have very good depth. Play-in team in the West. 

New York Knicks - They look like I expected. Intriguing due to coaching but fit, talent, and readiness is BAD. Lottery team.

Oklahoma City Thunder - Depth looked a lot better than I expected and that makes them intriguing. 

Don't count them out as an interesting team to watch. Lottery team. 

Orlando Magic - Whenever Gordon doesn't have to play with Issac, he fits well and they have a nice trio between Vooch, him and EF

Their defense looks good at times like usual and they are well coached. Their depth is lacking but some KEY players were out.

Interesting team. Should be a playoff team. 8th seed or play-in. 

Philadelphia 76ers - NA

Phoenix Suns - They look rough. Real rough. Maybe Utah is just a bad matchup because they should be much better. 

Portland Trail Blazers - They look interesting. They are clearly experimenting like Atlanta. Hard to say what they are by the 

preseason but they shown a lot more depth as we saw in the bubble and Nurkic is back. Should be a mid tier playoff team with

a chance to be special. 

Sacramento Kings - Tough team with an interesting core who makes it hard and can catch you off guard but the Bogi lost was bad,

this is a lottery team in the West. 

San Antonio Spurs - NA

Toronto Raptors - Looks like the same ole Raptors. Very very good and even changing their schemes up often in the preseason. 

They will be a top 3 seed. Brooklyn, Philly, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Boston, and Orlando will be chasing these guys to a degree. 

Utah Jazz - Top tier playoff team. Fixed their depth issues with Favors and drafting Udoka who will challenge Big O for AR

Washington Wizards - They have a lot of talent, interesting to see how it comes together with Westbook on board. Should be a play-in team.

 

 

For me: 

1 - Projected Record: 46-26. 

2 - 2 All-Stars - Trae and Capela

3 - 2 of All-NBA selections (don't need to say which team) Trae and Capela - Trae will be voted in as the starter. 

4 - 1 of All-Rookie selections (don't need to say first or second team) Okongwu

5 - 2nd place

6 - 45-27

[JeffS17]

36 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

We are a ways away considering what I've seen so far. I can confidently that we have the most talented overall roster after the Lakers. 

Based on what I've seen this preseason: 

Atlanta Hawks - Mid level playoff team with potential to be special. LP has been looking very good in both preseason games. 
The rest of the squad has been shaky otherwise.  

Boston Celtics - NA

Brooklyn Nets - Top tier playoff team with defensive and fit questions

Charlotte Hornets - Exciting team fighting for the play-in game

Chicago Bulls - Talented squad who doesn't fit like usual. Likely a non-playoff contender.

Cleveland Cavaliers - Very deep squad with an interesting squad if healthy. Play-in contender

Dallas Mavericks - Elite depth, Elite system and a MVP favorite to boot. Possibly a 1st overall seed.

Denver Nuggets - They are trying to figure out how to mix some guys together but Jokic looks like a MVP contender. 

Detroit Pistons - They haven't looked good all preseason. The worst team overall to me. 

Golden State Warriors - They have looked great so far. Kerr is having fun and the depth is solid. Should be a top tier playoff

team. 

Houston Rockets - They have average depth which is a massive upgrade for this squad. Interesting to see how Harden plays. 

Indiana Pacers - They haven't looked good yet to be honest. They have players but Oladipo is a ? and their system isn't fluid

like last year. Could be the big faller. A lot of question marks and coaching is now one. 

Los Angeles Clippers - They look good outside of depth which is usually their big strength. Their starting lineup looks more 

cohesive already. Ibaka is a massive fit upgrade and I like how Lue is using their personnel. Harrell's lost hurts. 

Los Angeles Lakers - They look like the best team in the NBA when you consider LeBron and AD will be coming. 

Their depth is legit elite and they have the starters. Rob had an elite offseason with THT improvement, Harrell coming. 

I do question their starting lineup fit but they have two perfect fits where you need them most, your 2 best players. 

Memphis Grizzlies - They look like the best team to their expectations I've seen this preseason. They fit as they did last yr.

They just got year 2 Morant who looks like a rising superstar. He's looking like he's 3rd year D-Rose this preseason. 

They should be a mid tier playoff team with a chance to be special.  

Miami Heat - Without Butler, they aren't the same team. With Butler and Bam, they tend to be special.

Milwaukee Bucks - Dallas been whooping them especially the bench which is the biggest ? 

Their lack of depth should hurt them. I would be surprised if they won the east just based on what I seen this preseason. 

Brooklyn looks better. Then you got teams with exceptional potential like Atlanta. In a 82 game season, this team would still

be my favorites to win the east but in this speedy season, depth is critical and they lack it. Still a legit playoff team. 

Minnesota Timberwolves - Another awful team like DET but at least they have talent. 

I think Culver shown enough to start over Okogie. Okogie is too small to be a SF. They need a PF BAD who can defend like a 5.

New Orleans Pelicans - Hard to say, their defense doesn't look good, I see limited potential especially w/o Favors. 

Offensively, my goodness, this team will be a matchup nightmare and they have very good depth. Play-in team in the West. 

New York Knicks - They look like I expected. Intriguing due to coaching but fit, talent, and readiness is BAD. Lottery team.

Oklahoma City Thunder - Depth looked a lot better than I expected and that makes them intriguing. 

Don't count them out as an interesting team to watch. Lottery team. 

Orlando Magic - Whenever Gordon doesn't have to play with Issac, he fits well and they have a nice trio between Vooch, him and EF

Their defense looks good at times like usual and they are well coached. Their depth is lacking but some KEY players were out.

Interesting team. Should be a playoff team. 8th seed or play-in. 

Philadelphia 76ers - NA

Phoenix Suns - They look rough. Real rough. Maybe Utah is just a bad matchup because they should be much better. 

Portland Trail Blazers - They look interesting. They are clearly experimenting like Atlanta. Hard to say what they are by the 

preseason but they shown a lot more depth as we saw in the bubble and Nurkic is back. Should be a mid tier playoff team with

a chance to be special. 

Sacramento Kings - Tough team with an interesting core who makes it hard and can catch you off guard but the Bogi lost was bad,

this is a lottery team in the West. 

San Antonio Spurs - NA

Toronto Raptors - Looks like the same ole Raptors. Very very good and even changing their schemes up often in the preseason. 

They will be a top 3 seed. Brooklyn, Philly, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Boston, and Orlando will be chasing these guys to a degree. 

Utah Jazz - Top tier playoff team. Fixed their depth issues with Favors and drafting Udoka who will challenge Big O for AR

Washington Wizards - They have a lot of talent, interesting to see how it comes together with Westbook on board. Should be a play-in team.

 

 

For me: 

1 - Projected Record: 46-26. 

2 - 2 All-Stars - Trae and Capela

3 - 2 of All-NBA selections (don't need to say which team) Trae and Capela - Trae will be voted in as the starter. 

4 - 1 of All-Rookie selections (don't need to say first or second team) Okongwu

5 - 2nd place

6 - 45-27

FYI the way you formatted this makes it impossible to read

[sillent]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

It is in there because it is a harder metric to tie on than "how many All-Stars" or "who will be our leading scorer or rebounder" (which this year I thought was sufficiently predictable so as to not hold much vale as a tiebreaker), etc.  Notionally, it is driven by the Pythagorean Wins concept where the idea is that the number of points we score and our opponents score over the course of a season project to a record.  Basketball Reference calls this "Expected W/L".  The formula is below:

• W Pyth - Pythagorean Wins; the formula is G * (Tm PTS¹⁴ / (Tm PTS¹⁴ + Opp PTS¹⁴)). The formula was obtained by fitting a logistic regression model with log(Tm PTS / Opp PTS) as the explanatory variable. Using this formula for all BAA, NBA, and ABA seasons, the root mean-square error (rmse) is 3.14 wins. Using an exponent of 16.5 (a common choice), the rmse is 3.48 wins. (Note: An exponent of 10 is used for the WNBA.)

Glad my school days are long gone lol... Atleast there was a reason. It just went over our heads but kudos. Looking back #6 is easier to figure out than if you gave us these equations lol

[NBASupes]

17 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

FYI the way you formatted this makes it impossible to read

Quote

 

Atlanta Hawks - Mid level playoff team with potential to be special. LP has been looking very good in both preseason games. 
The rest of the squad has been shaky otherwise.  

Boston Celtics - NA

Brooklyn Nets - Top tier playoff team with defensive and fit questions

Charlotte Hornets - Exciting team fighting for the play-in game

Chicago Bulls - Talented squad who doesn't fit like usual. Likely a non-playoff contender.

Cleveland Cavaliers - Very deep squad with an interesting squad if healthy. Play-in contender

Dallas Mavericks - Elite depth, Elite system and a MVP favorite to boot. Possibly a 1st overall seed.

Denver Nuggets - They are trying to figure out how to mix some guys together but Jokic looks like a MVP contender. 

Detroit Pistons - They haven't looked good all preseason. The worst team overall to me. 

Golden State Warriors - They have looked great so far. Kerr is having fun and the depth is solid. Should be a top tier playoff

team. 

Houston Rockets - They have average depth which is a massive upgrade for this squad. Interesting to see how Harden plays. 

Indiana Pacers - They haven't looked good yet to be honest. They have players but Oladipo is a ? and their system isn't fluid

like last year. Could be the big faller. A lot of question marks and coaching is now one. 

Los Angeles Clippers - They look good outside of depth which is usually their big strength. Their starting lineup looks more 

cohesive already. Ibaka is a massive fit upgrade and I like how Lue is using their personnel. Harrell's lost hurts. 

Los Angeles Lakers - They look like the best team in the NBA when you consider LeBron and AD will be coming. 

Their depth is legit elite and they have the starters. Rob had an elite offseason with THT improvement, Harrell coming. 

I do question their starting lineup fit but they have two perfect fits where you need them most, your 2 best players. 

Memphis Grizzlies - They look like the best team to their expectations I've seen this preseason. They fit as they did last yr.

They just got year 2 Morant who looks like a rising superstar. He's looking like he's 3rd year D-Rose this preseason. 

They should be a mid tier playoff team with a chance to be special.  

Miami Heat - Without Butler, they aren't the same team. With Butler and Bam, they tend to be special.

Milwaukee Bucks - Dallas been whooping them especially the bench which is the biggest ? 

Their lack of depth should hurt them. I would be surprised if they won the east just based on what I seen this preseason. 

Brooklyn looks better. Then you got teams with exceptional potential like Atlanta. In a 82 game season, this team would still

be my favorites to win the east but in this speedy season, depth is critical and they lack it. Still a legit playoff team. 

Minnesota Timberwolves - Another awful team like DET but at least they have talent. 

I think Culver shown enough to start over Okogie. Okogie is too small to be a SF. They need a PF BAD who can defend like a 5.

New Orleans Pelicans - Hard to say, their defense doesn't look good, I see limited potential especially w/o Favors. 

Offensively, my goodness, this team will be a matchup nightmare and they have very good depth. Play-in team in the West. 

New York Knicks - They look like I expected. Intriguing due to coaching but fit, talent, and readiness is BAD. Lottery team.

Oklahoma City Thunder - Depth looked a lot better than I expected and that makes them intriguing. 

Don't count them out as an interesting team to watch. Lottery team. 

Orlando Magic - Whenever Gordon doesn't have to play with Issac, he fits well and they have a nice trio between Vooch, him and EF

Their defense looks good at times like usual and they are well coached. Their depth is lacking but some KEY players were out.

Interesting team. Should be a playoff team. 8th seed or play-in. 

Philadelphia 76ers - NA

Phoenix Suns - They look rough. Real rough. Maybe Utah is just a bad matchup because they should be much better. 

Portland Trail Blazers - They look interesting. They are clearly experimenting like Atlanta. Hard to say what they are by the 

preseason but they shown a lot more depth as we saw in the bubble and Nurkic is back. Should be a mid tier playoff team with

a chance to be special. 

Sacramento Kings - Tough team with an interesting core who makes it hard and can catch you off guard but the Bogi lost was bad,

this is a lottery team in the West. 

San Antonio Spurs - NA

Toronto Raptors - Looks like the same ole Raptors. Very very good and even changing their schemes up often in the preseason. 

They will be a top 3 seed. Brooklyn, Philly, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Boston, and Orlando will be chasing these guys to a degree. 

Utah Jazz - Top tier playoff team. Fixed their depth issues with Favors and drafting Udoka who will challenge Big O for AR

Washington Wizards - They have a lot of talent, interesting to see how it comes together with Westbook on board. Should be a play-in team.

 

Fixed

Edited December 15, 2020 by NBASupes

[AHF]

20 minutes ago, sillent said:

Glad my school days are long gone lol... Atleast there was a reason. It just went over our heads but kudos. Looking back #6 is easier to figure out than if you gave us these equations lol

I think I've ended up giving it every year but figured that the reference to basketball reference where it appears on every team's page was enough.  I'll try to remember for next year assuming we use it again.  

[marco102]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

I think I've ended up giving it every year but figured that the reference to basketball reference where it appears on every team's page was enough.  I'll try to remember for next year assuming we use it again.  

I think it'll be easier to say projected wins based on point differential.  I know that's not exactly what it is but I understand what you mean when you say it that way.

[AHF]

3 hours ago, marco102 said:

I think it'll be easier to say projected wins based on point differential.  I know that's not exactly what it is but I understand what you mean when you say it that way.

Good feedback for me.  There may be different ways of arriving at that calculation which is why I wanted to point to a particular source in case another site has a different number or something.  

[hawkzlova123]

7 hours ago, NBASupes said:

We are a ways away considering what I've seen so far. I can confidently that we have the most talented overall roster after the Lakers. 

Based on what I've seen this preseason: 

Atlanta Hawks - Mid level playoff team with potential to be special. LP has been looking very good in both preseason games. 
The rest of the squad has been shaky otherwise.  

Boston Celtics - NA

Brooklyn Nets - Top tier playoff team with defensive and fit questions

Charlotte Hornets - Exciting team fighting for the play-in game

Chicago Bulls - Talented squad who doesn't fit like usual. Likely a non-playoff contender.

Cleveland Cavaliers - Very deep squad with an interesting squad if healthy. Play-in contender

Dallas Mavericks - Elite depth, Elite system and a MVP favorite to boot. Possibly a 1st overall seed.

Denver Nuggets - They are trying to figure out how to mix some guys together but Jokic looks like a MVP contender. 

Detroit Pistons - They haven't looked good all preseason. The worst team overall to me. 

Golden State Warriors - They have looked great so far. Kerr is having fun and the depth is solid. Should be a top tier playoff

team. 

Houston Rockets - They have average depth which is a massive upgrade for this squad. Interesting to see how Harden plays. 

Indiana Pacers - They haven't looked good yet to be honest. They have players but Oladipo is a ? and their system isn't fluid

like last year. Could be the big faller. A lot of question marks and coaching is now one. 

Los Angeles Clippers - They look good outside of depth which is usually their big strength. Their starting lineup looks more 

cohesive already. Ibaka is a massive fit upgrade and I like how Lue is using their personnel. Harrell's lost hurts. 

Los Angeles Lakers - They look like the best team in the NBA when you consider LeBron and AD will be coming. 

Their depth is legit elite and they have the starters. Rob had an elite offseason with THT improvement, Harrell coming. 

I do question their starting lineup fit but they have two perfect fits where you need them most, your 2 best players. 

Memphis Grizzlies - They look like the best team to their expectations I've seen this preseason. They fit as they did last yr.

They just got year 2 Morant who looks like a rising superstar. He's looking like he's 3rd year D-Rose this preseason. 

They should be a mid tier playoff team with a chance to be special.  

Miami Heat - Without Butler, they aren't the same team. With Butler and Bam, they tend to be special.

Milwaukee Bucks - Dallas been whooping them especially the bench which is the biggest ? 

Their lack of depth should hurt them. I would be surprised if they won the east just based on what I seen this preseason. 

Brooklyn looks better. Then you got teams with exceptional potential like Atlanta. In a 82 game season, this team would still

be my favorites to win the east but in this speedy season, depth is critical and they lack it. Still a legit playoff team. 

Minnesota Timberwolves - Another awful team like DET but at least they have talent. 

I think Culver shown enough to start over Okogie. Okogie is too small to be a SF. They need a PF BAD who can defend like a 5.

New Orleans Pelicans - Hard to say, their defense doesn't look good, I see limited potential especially w/o Favors. 

Offensively, my goodness, this team will be a matchup nightmare and they have very good depth. Play-in team in the West. 

New York Knicks - They look like I expected. Intriguing due to coaching but fit, talent, and readiness is BAD. Lottery team.

Oklahoma City Thunder - Depth looked a lot better than I expected and that makes them intriguing. 

Don't count them out as an interesting team to watch. Lottery team. 

Orlando Magic - Whenever Gordon doesn't have to play with Issac, he fits well and they have a nice trio between Vooch, him and EF

Their defense looks good at times like usual and they are well coached. Their depth is lacking but some KEY players were out.

Interesting team. Should be a playoff team. 8th seed or play-in. 

Philadelphia 76ers - NA

Phoenix Suns - They look rough. Real rough. Maybe Utah is just a bad matchup because they should be much better. 

Portland Trail Blazers - They look interesting. They are clearly experimenting like Atlanta. Hard to say what they are by the 

preseason but they shown a lot more depth as we saw in the bubble and Nurkic is back. Should be a mid tier playoff team with

a chance to be special. 

Sacramento Kings - Tough team with an interesting core who makes it hard and can catch you off guard but the Bogi lost was bad,

this is a lottery team in the West. 

San Antonio Spurs - NA

Toronto Raptors - Looks like the same ole Raptors. Very very good and even changing their schemes up often in the preseason. 

They will be a top 3 seed. Brooklyn, Philly, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Boston, and Orlando will be chasing these guys to a degree. 

Utah Jazz - Top tier playoff team. Fixed their depth issues with Favors and drafting Udoka who will challenge Big O for AR

Washington Wizards - They have a lot of talent, interesting to see how it comes together with Westbook on board. Should be a play-in team.

 

 

For me: 

1 - Projected Record: 46-26. 

2 - 2 All-Stars - Trae and Capela

3 - 2 of All-NBA selections (don't need to say which team) Trae and Capela - Trae will be voted in as the starter. 

4 - 1 of All-Rookie selections (don't need to say first or second team) Okongwu

5 - 2nd place

6 - 45-27

Did you ✍  that in excel worksheet?

[thecampster]

1 - 42-30

2 - 2

3 - 0

4 - 1

5 - 4

6 - 37

[Dejay]

Oh well, I'll give this a shot...

41-31

1 (Trae, even though the national folks won't like it one bit)

0

0

6th

38-34

[Gray Mule]

1- RECORD ----34-38

2- ALL STAR ----1

3- ALL NBA-----0

4- ALL ROOKIE----0

5- EAST SEED----7TH

6- EXPECTED----36-36

[REHawksFan]

On 12/14/2020 at 4:18 PM, AHF said:

For tiebreakers, please list:

1 - Projected Record (example:  45-27 or 30-42) or Winning % (50% = 36-36 projected record)

2 - # of All-Stars

3 - # of All-NBA selections (don't need to say which team)

4 - # of All-Rookie selections (don't need to say first or second team)

5 - Eastern Conference Seed (last year we were 14th)

6 - Expected W-L Record from Basketball Reference (final tiebreaker as the expected record usually is different by a couple of games for example being 18 wins last year vs 20 actual wins)

1: 43-29

2: 1 (Trae)

3: 1 (Trae)

4: None

5: 5th

6: 37-35

Edited December 21, 2020 by REHawksFan

[AHF]

Last couple days to get your official prediction in before the season starts!  Nail the prediction and become a Hawks legend.  Or fall short and join the rest of us in dissecting what went wrong (or maybe really right) for the team relative to our forecast.

[HawkItus]

1 - 34-38

2 -0- Trae backlash

3 - 0

4 - 0

5 - 9

6 - 36

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

On 12/15/2020 at 11:02 AM, JeffS17 said:

FYI the way you formatted this makes it impossible to read

Like I took a time warp back to 1990 typewriting class.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

20 hours ago, Gray Mule said:

1- RECORD ----34-38

2- ALL STAR ----1

3- ALL NBA-----0

4- ALL ROOKIE----0

5- EAST SEED----7TH

6- EXPECTED----36-36

 

Uh Oh.  

I'm scared now, because you never undersell the Hawks.

[REHawksFan]

3 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

1: 43-29

2: 1 (Trae)

3: 1 (Trae)

4: None

5: 5th

6: 37-35

@AHFI tried to edit number 6 after reading through the thread because it's clear I didn't understand what you were asking for.  But for some reason the edit button was gone the second time around.  Anyway, I thought you were asking for what BBall Reference would predict our record would be at the start of the season rather than what our pt diff would actually say it should be.  I'm dumb.  Now that I fully understand what the formula is, I'd like to change my answer to:

6: 42-30

 

 

[thecampster]

18 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

@AHFI tried to edit number 6 after reading through the thread because it's clear I didn't understand what you were asking for.  But for some reason the edit button was gone the second time around.  Anyway, I thought you were asking for what BBall Reference would predict our record would be at the start of the season rather than what our pt diff would actually say it should be.  I'm dumb.  Now that I fully understand what the formula is, I'd like to change my answer to:

6: 42-30

 

 

I went low on my point differential prediction because I still see a number of blowouts this year that will lower our differential. I see us winning lots of close games, losing some close games and losing a few pretty big throwing off the average.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

The More:

Quote

Hunter will be in the Most Improved Player conversation

I’ll admit I was lower on De’Andre Hunter than I probably should have been. I viewed Hunter long term as more of a strong rotation piece who could give the Hawks spot starts in a crunch, and if he hit his ceiling, he could be the fifth-best starter on a title-contending team.

He looks completely different in his second season. He’s playing with confidence he did not have for most of his rookie season. He’s getting to the rim at a much higher frequency than last season; 30 percent of his shot attempts last season were at the rim compared to 38 percent this year. He has taken fewer midrange attempts and has shot more from 3-point range, which is where the biggest payoff has been. Hunter’s confidence from 3 is evident with his off-the-dribble attempts. He’s 5-for-9 this season, according to Synergy. He made 7 of 40 off-the-dribble 3-point attempts last season. Look at the end of this clip. You can tell Hunter is feeling it early in the season.

Hawks will secure top-five offense

The Hawks’ offense has been as good as advertised through six games — minus its dreadful performance against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday, but that just seems like the result of a back-to-back more than anything.

Hawks will finish with a below-average defense

The Hawks are already below league average in defensive rating, and I expect them to stay somewhere around the 16-20 range........Hunter and Cam Reddish taking steps forward on the wing helps, as does Collins’ growth as a rim protector. There’s still lots of pressure on Clint Capela being the anchor the Hawks need in the middle of the defense.......There’s just not anyone else the Hawks can rely upon as a stopper.

Okongwu won’t make much of an impact this year, and that’s OK

Okongwu is expected to progress to playing three-on-three on Monday, which is an encouraging sign for his availability. Okongwu has been recovering from inflammation in a sesamoid bone that he has been battling for a few months now.

When Okongwu is able to play, he likely will be on a minutes restriction for a few games ........Okongwu didn’t play any Summer League games and hasn’t been able to scrimmage in practices, there’s going to be a learning curve when the rookie is able to play. Also, the Hawks likely are going to continue playing Collins as a small-ball five....

Snell will be traded before the deadline

Tony Snell hasn’t played for the Hawks as he recovers from inflammation in his right cuboid bone, but with his being their only expiring contract, it makes sense for Schlenk to explore what he could get in return.